Controversies making building of large-dams difficult

By Nusrat Khurshedi

The government is facing an uncertain situation on the construction of new dams, already one project ‘kalabagh dam’ have been scrapped. Other dams to be constructed are linked with controversies in one way or the other. Akhori is the new bone of contention between Sindh and NWFP as both the provinces have not come up with a clear stance on this important project, this situation could jeopardise government plan of constructing large reservoirs under new programme dubbed ‘Vision 2030’. However, present government shows concern to construct four dams Basha, Kurram-Tangi, Munda and Akhori but unfortunately these four mega projects suffer from controversy in one way or the other. Sindh and NWFP have not cleared the Akhori dam to be built in Attock district as the project will get water intake from Tarbela. According to Sindh government the dam would be more harmful for Sindh than the Kalabagh dam and if the Akhori dam was constructed, the entire Sindh would be converted into a barren land.

The other reservations on the proposed Akhori Dam are with regard to the land acquisition and resettlement plans of the project. It is estimated that a heavy sum Rs67 billion will be spent on the acquisition of land and re-settlement of the people to be displaced because of the construction of the Akhori dam. The Akhori dam is estimated to submerge more than 59,200 acres of land and displace about 49,500 people.

Due to the absence of any land acquisition, and resettlement policy local people and provincial government are reluctant to introduce any water project. The World Bank — because of its experience of resettlement issues of the Tarbela and Mangla dams, where many displaced persons are still homeless is also insisting on a national resettlement policy to satisfy its legal requirements. The bank’s own poor performance in the implementation of the Left-Bank outfall drain has caused it to be more vigilant on environment and livelihood issues of the people likely to be affected by the dams construction.

The Sindh officials already declared neither their government nor the people of the province are opposed to the progress of the country and the construction of dams, but they want the protection of their interests at all cost. In order to mitigate concerns and apprehensions in the province of NWFP and Sindh, a legal cover is likely to be provided to the affectees for compensation and protection of their rights prior to the construction of any dam especially Akhori. In this regard government should develop a broad-based resettlement policy, risk mitigation measures and a long-term business plan for the affectees.

In terms of Basha dam, all the stakeholders inside the country have agreed on the construction but, internationally, the project is controversial as India holds the Northern areas, where the dam is being constructed, a "disputed territory". Along this international financial institutions (IFIs) are always reluctant to provide assistance for the projects, which create a controversy between some countries. The only hope for financing this project is the government of People's Republic of China. But, according to some sources, China will not come to a highly controversial project.

In case of Kurram-Tangi dam, the NWFP and Wapda have some differences of opinion about the dam's height. Previous NWFP government had failed to evolve a consensus. The new central and NWFP governments will have to act quickly if they want speedy implementation of the project.

Similarly, the controversy-free project, Munda, has been put in a battle between Wapda and the contractors. Earlier, the Planning Commission informed a parliamentary committee that Munda contract had been scrapped. Now Wapda and the Planning Commission have ratcheted up efforts to persuade Water and Power Ministry to move quickly on preparation of detailed feasibility study of Munda dam, due to this decision, the company had gone to court against Wapda. Some circles in the NWFP government are of the view that Wapda paid little heed to water projects in NWFP as the authority had Kalabagh dam on top priority and by this the implementation of Munda is getting delayed.

It is also generally believed that construction of Munda dam could help soften NWFP's anti-Kalabagh dam stance, and latter could be built if the federal government makes concerted efforts for developing national consensus on the issue. Dam will help reduce the threat of Nowshehra flooding, as back-water of Kalabagh's full reservoir would only go up to Akhora Khattak. The installation of 4,800 tube wells in Sindh would address Sindh's apprehension that its lands would go out of production due to control over river because it would affect only 7,000 acres of mangrove forest.

On the other hand, for other apprehensions of NWFP and Sindh towards large dams, one should keep in mind the importance of dams and barrages for water storage and to generate hydropower. It is estimated that still 1/3 of agricultural potential remains untapped due to the shortage of water, even knowing the fact that Pakistan has agriculture based economy, about 24 per cent of GDP earn from it; over 70 per cent exports rely upon agricultural based products, in which 90 per cent of food and fiber requirement meets from irrigated agriculture. Shortage of water would badly affect the agriculture sector with the passage of time.

Along this, Pakistan is projected to become the world’s fifth-largest country by 2030, with a population somewhere between 230 and 260 million people. According to some experts over the next two decades Pakistan’s per capita availability of water is expected to drop by more than 37 per cent – from 1100 to 700 cubic meters per person per year due to government poor ability to store water. Along with, as 30 MAF (million acre-feet) of water flows down into the sea unutilised each year because of insufficient storage capacity.

The country’s current water-storage capacity is barely 12 MAF. This figure represents only 10 per cent of the country’s annual river flow; the world’s average for storage capacity, on the other hand, is 40 per cent of a country’s annual flow. The storage capacity of, Basha dam has 7.3 MAF, Kurram Tangi dam 0.914 MAF, Munda dam 1.30 MAF and Akhori dam 7 MAF capacity. Construction of all these dams to some extent gives relief to the masses in terms of agriculture and hydro power sector.

Side by side, according to a report of the World Bank, Pakistanis energy consumption has more than tripled in the last 20 years and still Pakistan accounts for only 0.5 per cent of the total world energy consumption. The energy deficit has reached to 3500 MW which would be 5000 MW by 2010. The situation looks particularly worrisome considering that, like dams some seven rental power plants having a capacity of 1,125 MW are still at various stages of development surrounded by controversy. Government campaign to save 500MW electricity remained unsuccessful as the target of 220MW saving with the closure of shopping plazas after 8 pm, and staggering industrial holidays and ToD meters for tube wells has not been achieved. In all these circumstances, dams are the clear solutions, these dams have a great potential for producing hydropower, like Basha dam has 4500 MW, Kurram Tangi dam 83 MW, Munda dam 660 MW and Akhori dam 600 MW capacities.

Due to these reasons the construction of dams and barrages becomes indispensable. However, if through negotiation and confidence building measurements (CBM) between the Wapda, federal and provincial governments apprehensions are not resolved then to maintain the provincial harmony instead of large dams should construct economically viable smaller dams that are less threatening politically and environmentally, and to foster a significant system of rainwater harvesting.

If power generation and storage are the focus, then government should construct smaller scale run-of-the-river projects. For instance, small-scale hydro projects in Azad Kashmir alone have the potential to produce around 8000 megawatts of power. NWFP has experienced unique success in the construction of small dams. Over the past 80 years, 14 small dams have been constructed in the province, which have succeeded in increasing agricultural productivity and raising local incomes. The Aza Khail dam, near Peshawar, for instance, not only helped to raise falling water tables, but even to remove sources of groundwater contamination, by preventing the build-up of arsenic and brackish water. Small dams be completed on much quicker timeframes and for significantly less money, and without raising the hackles of downstream promises, because they would not be ‘taking away’ any of the water as in the case of Akhori dam.

Right now Pakistan is witnessing food shortages, energy load-shedding, unemployment, stagnation of agricultural and industrial sectors, and growth of poverty, inflation, budget deficit and widening trade imbalance. If the issue of dams is not resolved it will add-up to the current problem. That’s why further delay in the construction of either large or small dams would create severe problems in the agriculture and the energy sectors, directly and industrial and manpower sectors indirectly, in this regard government should take immediate and bold measures.