The writer is an Islamabad-basedfreelance columnist
farrukh15@hotmail.com
When do the fireworks begin? Pentagon is ready. State Department is not. It’s busy building coalition. Pre-strike reconnaissance is in top gear. Human intelligence is extremely murky while other information gathering is nearing completion. Some special operations in Afghan territory may already have begun.

There is a definite split within the Bush Administration. Hawks on one side and doves on the other. Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary Defence, and Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary Defence, are the leading hawks. Leading the doves is Colin Powell the Secretary of State. Powell now seems to have gained Dick Cheney (codenamed: the ‘war minister’), the Vice President, and Condoleezza Rice the National Security Adviser to his camp.

The hawks want a unilateral hit which is deep and wide (whether international support comes forward or not). The doves favour a multilateral, limited, focused and a geographically restricted surgical operation. Powell seems to be prevailing over the hawks. The name of the undertaking, in the meanwhile, has been changed from Operation Infinite Justice to Operation Enduring Freedom (reportedly on the basis of objections raised by some Muslim scholars that only Allah could mete out infinite justice).

USS Enterprise and USS Carl Vinson Battle Groups are already here. Kitty Hawk and Theodore Roosevelt Battle Groups are on their way. There are some 30 dozen F-15s, F-16s, B1-Bs, Apache, Cobra and Chinhook helicopters that are at striking distance from Afghanistan (PAF has 32 operational F-16s). Kuwait has US troops. Saudi Arabia has at least two US Air Force bases. UK’s Naval Task Force comprising 18 warships is in the Red Sea. Oman is also housing UK forces. Then there is the huge Nato air force base in Turkey.

Aircraft carriers and calling in of reserves are all good for morale boosting and for Bush’s domestic rating (Bush, at 90% approval rating, has become the most popular president in the past 60 years of survey taking). Afghanistan really doesn’t need any of this.

Is all this firepower here just to take care of one person? Could it be a smoke screen while Americans plan other maneuvers in other areas? Uzbekistan has already offered its Tuzel military base where US warplanes have been landing since September 22. Air and land operations can potentially be launched from the Tuzel base. Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s president, has a personal reason to welcome US forces: In 1999, Karimov was nearly killed by the Taliban-inspired Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).

In Tajikistan, US forces are using at least one airbase. Kulob, the military base on the Tajik-Afghan border, could be used by special operation forces. On September 25, there were credible reports out of London that at least 1, 500 US special forces in addition to British SAS commandos had arrived in Uzbekistan possibly on their way to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have already offered airspace rights to US forces.

While most of the visible movements are in the Arabian Sea some of the initial action may actually come from the north of Afghanistan. Movement of aircraft carriers is largely politico-military intimidation aimed at straightening things out where governments may be double minded. There is no indication that all this firepower has intimidated the Taliban. What really hurts the Afghan militia is gasoline and food supplies from Pakistan.

A discerning Pathan friend told me that Mulla Omar knows not a thing about the world outside of his own country and that may indeed be the only parallel between the Taliban leader and the President of the United States. Fortunately, the president has a whole host of rational advisors. The Afghans did beat the Marathas, the Britishers and the Russians. American military strategists do learn from history and, I think, they are not going to repeat the same mistakes. The troop deployment this time around is Navy SEALS, Army Rangers, Marine Expeditionary Units and the Delta Force. These are all Special Operation Forces and Americans are not here to either capture or conquer Afghan territory. That is where previous invaders went wrong. What America seems to be gearing up for is a series of ‘hit-and-fly-back-to-safety’ operations. Army Rangers do specialise in airfield seizure operations and we may see American forces holding Bagram airbase in Kabul or other Afghan territory but only for short periods of time.

At least two Pakistani generals-Gul and Baig-are warning that Pakistan will be destabilised. They had dire warnings during the Gulf War as well. They were proven wrong. It was so pathetic to see our ex-president Leghari begging for money on BBC. If our stand is not justified then we should not be doing it regardless of how much money we are given. If we are on the right path then we should not be seeking a monetary benefit for doing what is right. Leghari ended up promoting nothing but a mentality of beggary.

Is Pakistan about to become the primary theater for Operation Enduring Freedom? One cannot be sure. The Pentagon continues to be uncomfortable (to say the least) about actual troop deployment either in Peshawar or at Samungli (Balochistan). Central Asian destinations like Tuzel and Kulob, although less convenient, are viewed to be more sheltered. When action begins it will be multi-pronged. Spysat satellites, long-range bombers, special forces, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey, Russia and the Northern Alliance will all be involved in one way or another. The only thing that actually works in the Taliban arsenal is the ‘fire-and-forget’ Stinger missiles. According to the US General Accounting Office, "Pentagon could not account for all the shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles...." Some 150 to 200 Stingers are missing and half of those may still be in Afghanistan. Taking out those Stingers has to America’s priority.

What will a post-Taliban Afghanistan look like? Afghan demographics are such (Pashtun 38%, Tajik 25%, Hazara 19%, Uzbek 6% plus Aimaks, Turkmen and Baloch) that there has to be a Pushtun-dominated pluralistic government. The current favourites from among the Northern Alliance are mostly tried-tested and failed warlords. In order to unite them all, there may be a need for a neutral, ‘fatherly figure’ and that is where the former King Mohammed Zahir Shah comes in (the former king was educated in France and now resides in Rome). At 87, he is old but is said to be fit for the role. Under Zahir Shah, a Loya Jirga (grand assembly) can craft out a new constitution.

Pakistan is concerned that her own tribal areas bordering Afghanistan may become volatile. If history is any guide, money has always been in short supply in those areas and has worked wonders in the past (even the British used to dole out bribes). How are the Americans going to define success? Osama wins if he hides well. The Americans have already begun naming other targets - like Osama’s deputy - in order to claim success in other ways.

It is highly unlikely that there is going to be a D-Day type invasion of Afghanistan or that there would be a formal surrender ceremony by Mulla Omar. No Iraq-type bombing sorties either. This is going to be the largest ground-based special forces operation in years. Spectators waiting for fireworks may be disappointed.