The new mantra

Dr Farrukh Saleem

The writer is an Islamabad-based freelance columnist

farrukh15@hotmail.com

The Good Governance Group at the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB), Chief Executive Secretariat, Government of Pakistan. The "Devolution of Power" plan. The Local Government Ordinance 2001. Some two hundred thousand Zila Nazims, Naib Zila Nazims, Tehsil Nazims, Union Nazims, Councillors, Musaleheens, Tehsil and Town Municipalities and finally the Musalihat Anjumans.

The amended Police Act. Executive Magistracy to be phased out. Abolition of the offices of the Deputy Commissioner, District Magistrate and Sub-Divisional Magistrate. District Coordination Officers (DCOs). Public Safety Commissions. District Superintendent Police (DSP). The bureaucracy, the Nazims and the DCOs. Who would finally get on top of whom? Then there are the omnipresent army monitoring teams.

The heavier of the boots, however, is yet to fall. That shall fall in preparation to the parliamentary elections; the National Security Council (NSC) and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). The strategy is to give NSC a civilian facade and that will be called the parliament. The important question is if devolution is an objective in itself or just a cannon to derail mainstream political entities. Is NRB trying awfully hard to confuse everyone or is it a special gift of God to the Good Governance Group? Nineteen Chapters, 197 Sections and 6 Schedules.

In Islamabad, all the four executive magistrates are now special judicial magistrates working under the sessions judge but there is no local government. Everywhere else in the country Assistant Commissioners are going to be working for the DCOs. Is it the Nazim who now has magisterial powers or is it the DSP? The Chief Executive of a province can fire a Nazim without any reference to the people who have elected the Nazim. The police has now been given the legal cover to trample over any citizen's democratic as well as his legal rights. Is that what 'power to the grassroots' is all about? What has the police done in the past to deserve so much additional power?

Is this mass confusion a deliberate attempt? The ultimate plot, however, seems to have four prongs to it. First, goad the plebeians onto roads that go nowhere. Second, keep them entangled, quarrelling over trivial pursuits. Third, appease the democracy-craving donors. Four, retain all the real rations in your own canton.

Take it from me, the district governments are not going to indulge in corruption. The Nazims and the Naib Nazims are all heavenly spirits. The new mantra and all the guardian angels around it are going to deliver where the old system had failed.

What really is 'delivery' that we so frequently refer to? Are the Nazims, the Naib Nazims, the Public Safety Commissions and the DCOs going to stimulate the economy to provide Pakistanis with a decent way to earn a livelihood or an educational infrastructure or basic medical facilities?

There is going to be transference of power to the civilians. Which powers, from whom and to whom is not clear. Fiscal discretion is what really matters. But, there isn't going to be any devolution where it matters. The district governments are "going to decide their own future." Yes, Rupees are going to fall down directly onto districts in place of rain.

Real power anywhere is the power to influence budget making. Military police is well dressed, effective, orderly and competent because of all the training and the huge chunks of money that is thrown into the effort. Economic power is political power. Here's how Budget 2001-2002 allocates economic power: 35% of tax revenue for defence, 10% for running of the civil government, 0.33% for education, 0.55% for health, 0.48% for police reforms.

Our Squadrons 9, 11 and 14 of F-16 A/Bs multi-role Fighting Falcons with Pratt & Whitney F-100-PW-200 turbofans carrying Matra R 550 Magic 2 air-to-air infrared homing missiles are valued at 15% of our annual tax revenue. The cost of three Agosta Class Patrol/Attack, 3,600 horsepower 90-B submarines with 20 Exocet missiles and torpedoes from Direction des Constructions Navales of France is the equivalent of 13% of our annual tax revenue.

Here are the three things that the entire argument boils down to. First, the Pakistani economy's maximum tax revenue potential that falls somewhere between Rs400 billion and Rs500 billion. Second, debt servicing of Rs330 billion. Third, defence allocation of Rs131 billion (plus Rs30 billion for pensions). Under the best case scenario, the Rs9 billion that is left has to feed a million federal government employees, finance a deficit of Rs100 billion a year in the Public Sector Enterprises, educate at least 70 million Pakistanis (who are all under-18) and provide healthcare for 140 million.

Debt servicing shall increase because debt is increasing. Privatisation was begun by Ziaul Haq. It has been "accelerated" once again. If PTV is the real indicator, then Kashmir and Afghanistan are frozen deep in the glaciers of Siachen. If history is any guide then military pensions were Rs20 billion a few years ago. They jumped to Rs30 billion last year.

Defence allocation in 1947-48 was Rs236 million jumping to Rs69 billion in 1991 and then to Rs131 billion last year. At that rate the defence budget by the end of the current decade shall grow to Rs370 billion and pensions to an additional Rs80 billion.

At the heart of the matter is national interest perceptions on the basis of which national resources are to be allocated. A couple of billion rupees for education and a wholesome forty billion rupees for the T-80UD tanks. Would the Nazims be allowed a role in determining what constitutes national interest or is it to remain the exclusive domain of our leaders in uniform? If status quo is to be maintained then nothing worthwhile ought to be expected (either from the old or from the new system).

Chapter 12 of the Local Government Ordinance is titled 'Local Government Finance'. It has 14 Sections that prescribe "District Provincial Accounts, Tehsil Provincial Accounts, Town Provincial Accounts, Zila Council Tax, Tehsil Council Tax, Town Council Tax, Union Council Tax, cess, fees, rates, rents, tolls, charges, surcharges and levies." There are more taxes in the Ordinance than the number of people in the Zila, Tehsil or Town to pay them.

Economic revival is said to be the "main target". The amended Police Act of 1861, the amended Code of Criminal Procedure of 1898, the Police Ordinance 2001 and the Local Government Ordinance 2001. Lot of hard work. The military government must be given the credit.

But, what exactly is the new mantra going to change?