No minister ...
March 20, 2002

The newly appointed Information Minister Nisar Memon has stoutly defended the Pakistani electronic media, owned and controlled by the Government, and has said that they are doing their duty -- of countering Indian propaganda. Anyone who cares to watch the PTV or listen to Radio Pakistan can easily certify what the Minister has said. They do a fair job of countering Indian propaganda and go on the counter offensive -- according to their light. But the Minister will be well advised not to go on with this supposed national duty.

How to stump Sushma -- and Atalji
March 13, 2002

The PTV debate between India's Information Minister Sushma Swaraj and Talat Hussain on Friday evening was high on entertainment and low in utility. It heavily underscored the utter impasse into which the two countries have stumbled into. Any diplomatic tete a tete between the two countries' officials can, on present assumptions, scarcely achieve anything more substantial. 

Facts about Indo-Pak impasse
March 06, 2002

It is important to keep the facts of the present situation in focus and to interpret them in perspective. It is a war in which live bullets are not being fired and actual casualties are not being incurred. Following the December 13 terrorist attack on Indian Parliament, India massed its troops on the borders threatening an invasion either across the LoC in Kashmir or across the international borders. It took other measures suggesting an imminent war, complete with an ultimatum for handing over certain persons to India forthwith, sharply reducing diplomatic representation in each other's country and totally cutting off road, rail and air links. Meantime the media war has become ever more intense.

The Musharraf design
February 27, 2002

Back to the old ways
February 20, 2002

All the talk now is of the aid America is going to provide or help obtain from others. There is familiar emphasis on common interests and values between Pakistanis and Americans as of yore, especially about democracy. The recent state visit to the US by the President of Pakistan was a great success, or so we are told by official publicists. But the point to ponder is about the meaning or extent of this 'success': whose success it is and who gets what from this visit? Also relevant is the query about the future: how will the political and economic life of the country fare after this renewal of the old American connection?

Do it right, do it quick
February 13, 2002

There are no easy options for President Pervez Musharraf, who should be discussing things, among them Kashmir rather importantly, with the US President George W Bush today. He will have to accept what economic package the US government has already prepared for Pakistan. 

On the way to eternal bliss?
February 06, 2002

President Pervez Musharraf would soon visit the US as a 'special guest' of Mr George W Bush, the US President. Wendy Chamberlin, the latter's Ambassador to this country, has foretold that this visit will change the fortunes of Pakistan and its people. It remains to be seen how adverse will be the effect on those fortunes.

More realistic thinking on the nukes
January 30, 2002

Although a nuclear weapons and missiles race is still intensifying between Pakistan and India, as shown by the clamour to give a tit for tat reply to the Agni test on Friday (January 25), President and Chief Executive is said to be reluctant to do so. Instead, he has suggested a series of treaties to India with a view to radically improve the relations between the two nuclear neighbours in the security field. 

Needed a coherent India policy
January 23, 2002

Much mischief has resulted from the presence of intrinsically destabilising presence of nuclear weapons during the current crisis on the borders. They do possess an inherent deterring quality. So the two adversaries dare not use them and have made their confrontation look foolish: unable to take it to its logical conclusion, they find it hard to stand down while it appeared all too easy to mass troops menacingly at the borders.

Logic of the change
January 16, 2002

Saturday's (January 12's) speech by President Pervez Musharraf certainly represents a courageous new beginning by a general. Perhaps only a general could have done so. However, he has to pay the price of forfeiting the support of the much-hyped lobby that was puffed up by the so-called establishment far beyond its true strength. 

War's shadow over the Subcontinent
January 09, 2002

Two much delayed conferences of South Asians in Kathmandu in the first few days of the new year - one of the South Asia Free Media Association's second congress and the 11th Summit of the SAARC heads of State or Governments - produced documents that are long on rhetoric and rather short on substance and have left a feeling of dissatisfaction.

Cold war's many costs
December 28, 2001

It is clear that while a war is still possible through miscalculation, escalation or accident, neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants it. For one thing, it may force nuclear strikes on both. For, it will be odd for any general or government to risk heavy losses or defeat and not use the weapon that can reduce or avoid them; even a winning side may wish to shorten the war or reduce the costs by nuking the enemy. However, the rest of the world is horrified by the prospect and appears to be putting effective pressure on both sides not to let the cold war become a hot one. Hence this stultifying stand off may continue in some form - until the two see its futility and make peace.

Unipolarism becomes stark
December 28, 2001

The year 2001 opened in the US with a litigated election to the Presidency; George Bush Junior won it on a technical point. But his Republican Presidency has made the truth of world's unipolarity starker still. The US tendency towards unilateral actions in the spirit of isolationalism stands out.

In need of help
December 20, 2001

Following the Wednesday terrorist attack on the Parliament in New Delhi, India and Pakistan seem set to slide into war - now or a little later. Their governments can scarcely rise above the futility of angry mutual accusations and making hostile propaganda attain ever greater intensity. Far too much poison has been injected into the public discourse vis-a-vis the other within each country and between them.

Beware of bearers of Eid gifts
December 12, 2001

The first was Air Marshal Asghar Khan, a politician of unimpeachable integrity, who vouchsafed that President Pervez Musharraf will hold elections to National and Provincial Assemblies by the due date and that he will seek confirmation or re-election from the Assemblies in November next year. 

Emerging order in Afghanistan
November 28, 2001

No world order is a fixed thing. It goes on changing, generally slightly, with major developments and Afghan War is one of those things that are sure to make significant changes. Prognostication of how the war will end and what would follow in Afghanistan is a hazardous business. However, a few scenarios, mostly pessimistic, can be visualised insofar as Asia is concerned.

A three front situation
November 21, 2001

The military regime has to fight on three fronts - fortunately not militarily. Pakistan's western borders with Afghanistan have after the collapse of Taliban power suddenly become overly sensitive with all manner of uncertainties and possibilities. Many of the Taliban activists, leading members of their hierarchy, from Mulla Omar down, and above all the Al-Qaeda's Chief and its other members may head for Pakistan through the porous border. 

To and from New York
November 14, 2001

Indian and Pakistani heads of government went to New York (and Washington), addressed the UN General Assembly, spoke about their concerns about terrorism, had bilateral discussions with the US President George W Bush and other American officials and should now be back. These two heads traversed on parallel lines without any intersection. 

Direction for the paradigm shift
October 31, 2001

Having argued in this space that most parts of foreign policy have failed, it is necessary to shift the paradigm. With that basic assumptions and attitudes have to be altered and adjusted realistically. It requires the correction of self-perception-a difficult job. Nevertheless it is necessary. We should not punch above our height. It was a mistake to think allies or UN could bail us out when in serious trouble.

Oh! For a bit of commonsense
October 24, 2001

Let's be realistic. The next Afghan government is to be made by American smiths alone. Pakistan has been eliminated from this whole business. Actually the US is at war with Pakistani proteges, if not proxies: the Taliban. Tony Blair of UK looked like giving a consolation prize to General Pervez Musharraf by declaring in Islamabad that Pakistan has valid concerns about the formation of Afghanistan's next government.

A teenager's guide to war and all that
October 17, 2001

Look what is happening is American bombers and missiles killing Afghan men, women and children. That is what happens when you bomb a city or town. The US government calls it a long, hard war against international terrorism, focusing right now on Osama bin Laden, his Al-Qaeda organisation's network and their hosts, the Taliban regime.

Policy review should go the whole length
October 10, 2001

In an interview to Christina Amanpur, President Pervez Musharraf admitted that Pakistan's Afghan Policy has not worked and has to be reviewed. It was a profound admission that has come not a day too soon. It was also a pregnant statement. Its implications are wide-ranging. For, this Afghan Policy was not an ad hoc one like an isolated flower in the desert; it grew out of the basic assumptions and purposes of Pakistan's foreign, and indeed national, policies pursued over 50 years.

Pakistanis' self-assessment
October 03, 2001

It is about time that Pakistanis took stock of their situation, making a dead reckoning. There is common realisation that military captains of this ship have ran it aground: the captain today is defending are not his own; he was left no option. Some sort of a major corrective action is needed for which we all should examine what has gone wrong.

An unclear roadmap
september 12, 2001

One takes this quote as the text from veteran Kashmiri leader and Chief of the Muslim Conference, Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan: "I have been saying for the past four years that the agencies have taken up the role of forming governments and if ever I met General Musharraf, I will tell him candidly ... he is bound by the agencies. Rather he is their prisoner",said the veteran politician talking to a group of newsmen in Rawalpindi.

Ten uplifting days in Japan
september 05, 2001
An anti-nuclear organisation in Japan, Gensuikin, hosted an international conference in Tokyo on the menace posed by atomic and thermonuclear weapons on August 1 to 2 and its national annual anti-nuclear conferences in Hiroshima (August 4 to 6) and in Nagasaki (August 7, 8 and 9). In all one spent a good nine uplifting days in the company of over a dozen anti-nuclear campaigners from the US, Netherlands, Denmark, South Korea, China, Russia and Moruroa Island. This experience is worth talking about.

Will the succession of coups continue?
August 29, 2001

As one sat listening to CE-President General Pervez Musharraf announcing his road map to 'real' democracy on the telly, one's mind began playing truant. How is it that men on horseback keep coming as saviours and always promising to make a new beginning? How Pakistani politicians always make a mess by their mal-administration and corruption? Across a few hundred kilometres, there are those Indians - quite like us in civilisational attitudes, traditions and outlook - who can work at least a passable democracy that permits rule of law for the most part.

What to do about nukes
August 22, 2001

It would seem that India and Pakistan are on course to having another Summit before too long. It is also clear that the focus next time will be on nuclear weapons and the measures that 'enemies' can adopt to prevent an unintended war and accidents, and some mutual assurance that no unauthorised finger will press the nuclear button.

Introspection turns gloomy
August 15, 2001

The fifty-fifth anniversary of Pakistan becoming independent is an occasion for both joy and stocktaking. The state of the nation, its economy and its place in the emerging world order needs to be assessed in the perspective of past events -- so that the problems confronting the people should be correctly identified. In view of so many negative developments we have met, we as a people need to also reassess our priorities and purposes that should inform our approach to the current array of problems, though one does not propose to go that far here.

Poverty of politics
August 01, 2001

Politics in Pakistan has become rather pointless and has little to do with the social and economic problems afflicting ordinary people. One look at the noisy crowd of existing parties and groups - constantly splitting into factions and given to serving the generals - and it becomes obvious why there has never been any transfer of power to a democratic government. Substance of power, ever since early 1950s, has eluded Pakistani politicians; military dictatorship can now be seen as a norm and elected constitutional governments exceptional interludes, permitted by the military when expedient.

Hopes and fears after Agra
July 25, 2001

Agra Summit, after all is said and done, did collapse. There is no tangible gain. The Indo-Pakistan deadlock is complete. Personal chemistries between Pakistan President and Indian PM are said to have ineffably harmonised there. That may provide a basis of some progress in future. May be. But there is no certainty. Hope however lingers.

In the eye of the storm
July 18, 2001

Three developments underscore the emerging turbulence in Asia. First, Pakistan is entrusting the initial work in developing Gwadar as a deep sea port with envisaged usable facilities for a big naval power, in this case China. The second is the pointed query from India as to what may be implied in China developing this strategic facility. It is freely being speculated upon that the query may not be an expression of only Indian concern; for all anyone knows there may be hidden in it somewhere an alarmed American curiosity, which power, in any case, regards itself as the premier naval power in the West Asian waters. 

To the Summit - with hope
July 11, 2001

We are at a pregnant moment for South Asia. Let us not forget the India-Pakistan cold war rivalry, now nuclear, is balanced on a knife's edge. Not unexpectedly, both sides recoil from the prospect of another cold war and have taken some measures to mend fences. The question at this juncture - still only a start of the 21st Century, the third Millennium of the Lord and the second half century of independent statehood for both states - is stark and insistent: Having spent the earlier half a century in military confrontation over Kashmir, policies of India and Pakistan collide at every step. Shall we continue living in this past or can make a break with the help of the unlikely duo of Pakistani military and Hindu nationalists of India?

Iran polarised--some lessons
July 04, 2001

Although key Iranian institutions have approved the election of President Muhammad Khatami and the top permanent guide-cum-ruler, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai, had upheld one of Parliament's contentious decisions about making state TV accountable, another liberal measure regarding political prisoners' rights has been shot down. Suppression of pro-Khatami press seems to have been resumed. The hope that the recent electoral showing of the other moderate liberals will not lead to any catastrophic showdown with the ultra rigid clerics entrenched in Council of Guardians, judiciary and security services may no longer be realistic.

A clearer roadmap
June 27, 2001

Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf's decision to become the President of Pakistan also should surprise no one after the clear hints he had been dropping since April last. That he now has to wear five hats - of the COAS, CJCSC, CE, NSC Chief and the President of the Republic and in this order - is a predicament for which he deserves no sympathy. For all the eminence that surrounds him, his is not a personal-cum-party regime like those of President Saddam Hussain or President Hafez al Assad of Syria or even Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Imperatives of nuclear detente
June 20, 2001

Logically one of the most likely outcomes of the Delhi Summit would be a set of agreements under the rubric of CBMs (confidence building measures) or Nuclear Restraint Regime. Doubtless there would be some other agreements too that would yield incremental benefits in the spheres of trade, cultural exchanges and a somewhat more relaxed visa regime. What will be vain to hope for is a satisfying resolution of the Kashmir problem or a true ending of the Indo-Pakistan cold war and arms race that may lead before long to a reversal of adversarial attitudes and assumptions between India and Pakistan. On the whole, the two governments are likely to soldier on - in the well-worn grooves.

The summit's prerequisites
June 13, 2001

The 'South Asian Conference on Fundamentalism and Communalism: the Role of Civil Society' in Dhaka, called by Bangladesh's National Professor Kabir Chowdhry, early this month was a significant assertion by secular liberal opinion in the region. India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka had sent strong delegations. Fresh from that conference, one was pleasantly surprised by Chief Executive General Parvez Musharraf's Tuesday (June 6) address at a religious gathering in Islamabad.

Playing with the Constitution
June 05, 2001

There is virtually non-stop talk of amending the organic law. Insofar as the current military rulers are concerned, they want to make their reforms irreversible. This is as new an insistence as it is amazing. How can future generation(s) be bound not to change today's changes, supposing they mean to enshrine them in the basic law? The point may become comprehensible if we examine what constitutional amendments are on the anvil.

Who should balance which powers?
May 09, 2001

Having prevented ARD's May 1 Karachi rally, like the first one in Lahore, the military regime has become even more determined to achieve its political objectives: constitutional amendments to recreate "checks and balances" in the organic law.

Economic revival and Karachi
May 02, 2001

Theme song of the military regime is to turnaround the economy. An oft-recognised and oft-ignored condition for doing that is to normalise Karachi and set it on a growth trajectory. Indeed, the two propositions are linked in myriad ways.

Shot across the bows
April 25, 2001

The MQM and JSQM (Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mohaz) gave a call for a Pahya Jam strike in Sindh to protest against water scarcity for Wednesday (April 16). The strike was a near total success throughout the province. Earlier, there were water marches by Awami Tehrik and road blockings by Dr Qadir Magsi's STPP.

What ever will be, will be
April 18, 2001

Ever since that Sunday in March when Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf announced his decision not to retire from the army next October, the subject has concentrated many a mind. Excitement and agitation have characterised most reactions.

Flirting with trouble
April 11, 2001

It was an ominous incident on late Saturday March 31. A high tech American spy plane EP-3 was circling over a new Russian-made high tech destroyer in probably international waters but fairly close to the Chinese air space and waters in South China Sea.

Audacity may be yes, imprudence no
April 04, 2001

It is now clear that General Pervez Musharraf's regime is going to effect changes in the constitution with a view to making his reforms irreversible. Mr Musharraf has been at pains for some time to emphasise the resolve to restructure the political system--mainly to recreate a balance between the President's and PM's powers--and to make the changes irreversible.