analysis
A sign of changing times
The World Human Rights Day rolls around again
By Kamila Hyat
It is that time of year again. December 10, the World Human Rights Day, will be observed as it is each year through seminars, meetings and other symbolic gestures of recognition for the occasion -- even though, this time round, the events of Eidul Azha and the accompanying rituals of slaughter may rather overshadow all else.

Newswatch
Picking a quarrel with the gloom and doom brigade
By Kaleem Omar
There is an alarmist school of commentators in this country whose outpourings grace the pages of our newspapers every day. Their worldview is that of a Pakistan perpetually teetering on the brink of disaster. Some years ago, their favourite mantra was telling us that Pakistan was about to be put on the US State Department's list of states supporting terrorism for backing the freedom struggle in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

firstperson
Youthful exuberance
Our sacrifices for the PPP were forgotten and we were left with no option but to follow our own course
By Inayat Ali Shah
Sikandar Hayat Khan Sherpao was recently elected as the NWFP president of Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao (PPP-S). Despite his young age, he has twice been elected as an MPA. Born in October 1976, he received his early education from the PAF School, Peshawar. He did his graduation from Edwards College, Peshawar, in 1994.

The 'war on terror' in Karachi
Expediency has its own logic
By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar
Expediency is to be expected in the game that is power politics. It is not that principles are not invoked, or even that they are not sometimes upheld, but more often than not principles are expendable while power is not. As the post-Musharraf dispensation has unfolded, there have been numerous disappointments, most related to the inability of the elected government to wrench free of imperial dictates, on both the 'war on terror' and economic fronts. But perhaps even more difficult to swallow for those who want to see people's rule flourish in this country is the Muttahida Qaumi Movement's (MQM's) retention of power even after its primary benefactor, Pervez Musharraf, has long gone.

inequalityApathy to the needy Considering the problems
Pakistan is faced with, the suicide rate is only bound to climb in the coming days
By Tahir Ali
"He was lying on the ground exposed to severe cold when we saw him first that night," says Naveed, 40, a feeble and aged man from Mardan. "He was in a pitiable state with his ragged clothes soaked in his urine and wastes causing a bad odour. What he said was not discernible, which made it impossible for us to know his identity. We took him to a house where we gave him meal, warm clothes and quilt to sleep," he says.

A potential threat
Analysts predict that the next Indo-Pak way will not be over Kashmir, but water
By Sibtain Raza Khan
Since the subcontinent's partition, there have been various issues causing ups and downs in the Indo-Pak relations. Nonetheless, along with Kashmir, one of the major consistent contentions between the two nuclear rivals has been on water sharing. According to many analysts, it is not Kashmir but water that will become the source of future conflict between India and Pakistan.

livelihood
New avenues
In a positive development, women's access to and control over micro-credit is increasing in Pakistan
By Shaheen Rafi Khan
Traditionally, conventional banks avoided loans to the rural poor, particularly to women, because they could not offer collateral, the risk of loan defaults was high and the small size of loans led to high administrative costs. The Grameen Bank-model overcame these obstacles through peer-group lending. The microfinance model is revolutionary in the sense that it successfully challenged conventional perceptions and proved that non-collateral-based loans to the poor can be a profitable endeavour. Microfinance is now an important tool for poverty alleviation in the world, with a rapidly increasing global outreach. The World Bank estimates that the total number of microfinance institutions worldwide is approximately 7,000, with a total outreach of about 16 million borrowers and lending of about $2.5 billion.

More of the same
The IMF's prescriptions for tax reforms does not promise much
By Huzaima Bukhari and Dr Ikramul Haq
On November 25, 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved $7.6 billion, 23-month standby loan for Pakistan. As expected, a number of conditions have been imposed by the IMF, of which we will discuss only those here that relate to Pakistan's tax system. The foremost demands of the lender are to expand the tax net (without knowing that already 40 million people are paying taxes at source) and make changes in the tax structure for increasing general sales tax (GST) by Rs50 billion in the ongoing fiscal year (FY09). The most stringent condition is that Pakistan must surrender control of monitoring the revenue collection to the IMF; six of its directors and two of the World Bank will supervise the preparation of the federal budget of Pakistan.

 

 


analysis

A sign of changing times

The World Human Rights Day rolls around again

 

By Kamila Hyat

It is that time of year again. December 10, the World Human Rights Day, will be observed as it is each year through seminars, meetings and other symbolic gestures of recognition for the occasion -- even though, this time round, the events of Eidul Azha and the accompanying rituals of slaughter may rather overshadow all else.

It sometimes seems that such days are worth little. They crop up throughout the year: a day for children, a day for women, another for the disabled, yet another for the patients of HIV and AIDS. Once they pass, little seems to change. Life for the millions who suffer oppression of various kinds in Pakistan, particularly for the more vulnerable among them, continues just the same -- after the speeches have been made, the newspaper accounts read and the customary photographs taken.

This is all the more true in the reality of today, when devastating socio-economic hardships have engulfed most citizens. The problems created by hunger and unemployment, and the domestic discord they trigger, have an impact on the lives of almost all citizens. The stepped-up tensions with India after the latest act of terrorism to shake the world only add to the growing sense of despondency among the masses.

But is it correct to say that there has been no change at all? Is there nothing beyond general doom and gloom? Or is there some hope visible somewhere on the horizon? Has anything at all been achieved by the campaigns and crusades for rights that have accelerated in our country since the 1980s, when the dark dictatorship of the late General Ziaul Haq forced a new conscience on many of us and played a major role in ending the 'complacency' of the past decades?

We have since seen a plethora of organisations working on various issues crop up. Several major groups focus on issues involving children; a slightly larger number on those of concern to women. Smaller, specialist groups work for the rights of ethnic and religious minorities. Shelters for children are now operated in both the private and public centers. Some also exist for women who have faced violence, though the number is far from adequate.

Yet, despite this, we hear new and ever-more horrifying accounts of abuse each day: of women like Tasleem Solangi, who was thrown to the dogs in Khairpur after suffering a violent forced abortion; or of the still nameless women who died beneath the sands of Balochistan. Sometimes it seems that no matter how many Human Rights Days we mark, nothing will change. The stories that emerge from our villages, towns and cities seem to get worse from one month to the other, from one year to the next.

But if we look at the situation in a little more detail, we will see that, perhaps, a difference has after all been made. Maybe all the Human Rights Days that have been marked, all the campaigns staged and all the articles written have had some kind of impact. The fact is that more than ever before, people seem aware of the issues that concern rights. This is true not only in cities, but also in small villages, even miniscule hamlets where the population does not go beyond a few hundred. Following the recent earthquake in Ziarat, people, who included some of the poorest and most deprived citizens in the country, refused to accept that what had happened was an act of nature in the face of which they were helpless.

They demanded that the government and authorities do more; some youngsters in remote communities scattered among the hills of Pishin asked why so few hospitals existed where they lived; why they were so badly equipped or why the schools built by the state had collapsed with minutes following the tremors that hit the region. Almost exactly three years ago, the same questions had been asked in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Allai and Shinkiari in the NWFP following the 2005 earthquake there. Quite often they took authorities by surprise. Rather than a willingness to accept fate, people were demanding more help to fight it and asking what the state owed them as its citizens.

There are many tiers and levels to this new enlightenment. In the Mianwali district of Punjab, one of the countries most orthodox regions, young women handed over as vani have fought back fiercely against the tradition. Three years ago, three sisters from the area refused to go with the men to whom they had been given away as brides in their infancy, to settle a murder case.

In a sign of changing times, the father of the young women, all of them educated and obviously bright, took their part despite the immense social pressures he faced. A short while ago, two other women had also similarly defied the tradition. Many rallies have been staged in Mianwali to protest the barbaric tradition of vani. The fact that, along with human rights activists, many locals also participated in them shows that how far we have come and how times have moved on.

The tales we hear of murder, of family feud, of 'punishment' meted out to deal with 'dishonourable' women are also, in some ways at least, the manifestations of a society in conflict. At least two of the women who died in the Jaffarabad district of Balochistan had taken on the society they lived in. Their decision to stage a court marriage with men of their choice was an incredible one. It happened only because they were aware of their rights under the law and, as educated women, chose to exercise them.

Such an act would have been unthinkable even a decade or so ago. The act of taking a taxi from their village to reach a city court and exert their right to marry by will is, in many ways, an extraordinary act of heroism ñ made possible only because the young women knew their lawful rights. Indeed, the conflict we see today in our society, with more and more young people eager to make choices in life and in marriage, is in itself a sign of change.

There are other demonstrations of the same change in awareness. Haris (peasants) in Sindh have over the past two decades fought valiantly for their rights. Their struggle was a key factor in the passage of the 1992 Bonded Labour System (Abolition) Act. Other actions by state have too come in response to growing pressures from citizens. The decision by the government to restore student unions and to do away with the Industrial Relations Ordinance of 2002, which severely restricts the right to form labour unions, is too a result of campaigns by groups working for the right to free association. The directives by three of the four provincial governments against the use of corporal punishment in schools are another example. There are many others too.

Of course, a great deal more needs to be done. We must move beyond marking Human Rights Days towards steps to usher in true change. But there are signs that as a result of the efforts of the many groups operating now in the country, attitudes have begun to change. People are willing to cast aside the holds of tradition; and this is a positive indication that, in time, the pace of this process will grow faster.

 

Newswatch

Picking a quarrel with the gloom and doom brigade

By Kaleem Omar

There is an alarmist school of commentators in this country whose outpourings grace the pages of our newspapers every day. Their worldview is that of a Pakistan perpetually teetering on the brink of disaster. Some years ago, their favourite mantra was telling us that Pakistan was about to be put on the US State Department's list of states supporting terrorism for backing the freedom struggle in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

When that brouhaha fizzled out not with a bang but with an Eliotesque whimper, these doom and gloom commentators changed tack and took up the cry that Pakistan was about to be declared a defaulter state for reneging on its foreign debt obligations.

This cry was even echoed by some senior Pakistani bankers working for multinational banks. I recall an argument I had with one such banker in Karachi in the late 1990s. He insisted that this country was only months away from being declared as a defaulter. I disagreed, arguing that Pakistan would not become a defaulter and would be able to get its foreign debt rescheduled.

So what happened? Well, as we all now know, of course, Pakistan did not become a defaulter. On the contrary, it succeeded in getting its foreign debt rescheduled not just once but twice. The first time was in early 1999 when the Paris Club members agreed to roll over $3 billion worth of debt for two years. The second time was in December 2001 ñ soon after the events of 9/11 ñ when the Paris Club agreed to reschedule $12.5 billion worth of debt on concessionary terms that substantially reduced the country's annual debt servicing costs. Under that agreement, Pakistan saved about $3 billion on debt servicing over the next three years alone, starting from the fiscal year 2002-03.

The rescheduling involved about two-thirds of the $12.5 billion debt to be repaid over the next 38 years, and the remaining one-third over the next 23 years. The debt to be repaid over the next 38 years had a 15-year grace period, while the debt to be paid back over the next 23 years came with a five-year grace period. The concessions meant that Pakistan's then-total foreign debt of about $38 billion had, in effect, been reduced by about 30 percent. As a result, the actual total outstanding debt went down to $36 billion. Since then, however, additional borrowing has increased the total foreign debt to about $46 billion.

Then-State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Dr Ishrat Hussain told a seminar on Economic Development in Sindh in Karachi on October 2, 2002, that, over the preceding two years, Pakistan had repaid commercial and private sector foreign loans amounting to $4.54 billion and had signed a $2 billion soft-term contract with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He said the government had repaid all one-year and two-year loans (which carry a higher rate of interest than long-term loans) and was conducting negotiations with the IMF on the repayment of standby loans.

Fuelled by the steep rise in home remittances in 2002 and the SBP's liberal buying of dollars from the inter-bank market, Pakistan's foreign reserves, meanwhile, rose to $8.5 billion in November 2002 and increased to about $10 billion by June 30, 2003. In September 2002 alone, reserves rose by $600 million, with the total increase for fiscal year 2002-2003 projected at $ 3 billion.

According to an understanding with the IMF, Pakistan should have had foreign reserves of $4.2 billion by that time, whereas the actual reserves had risen to double that figure. Due to that increase in reserves, Pakistan's foreign debt, which stood at $36 billion after the Paris Club rescheduling agreement of December 2001, fell to $30 billion. That figure of $30 billion was expected to go down further after all the loan write-offs, which were then being negotiated by Pakistan with donor countries, kicked in.

Canada agreed to write-off Canadian $350 million in loans, converting them into grants for social sector projects. And $1 billion write-off in American loans was approved by the US Congress. Negotiations were also under way at that time with Japan (Pakistan's biggest creditor) to write off $5 billion in loans, though that required fresh legislation from the Japanese parliament, which apparently got bogged down in political wrangling.

The rupee hit a two-year high in October 2002, breaking the 59-to-the-dollar barrier to reach 58.95 to the dollar in the open market. The rupee climbed 12.1 percent in the open markets and 7.7 percent in bank rates between September and November 2001. It would probably have risen to 55 over the ensuing three months had the SBP not intervened to prop up the dollar to help Pakistani exporters.

Pakistan also saw the benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) index skyrocket almost 200 percent over a period of 14 months, despite the fact that share prices in America, Europe and elsewhere fell sharply during that same period. In the 14 months between 9/11, 2001, and November 2002, the Pakistani stock market became the world's best performing stock market.

During that same period, financial aid and loans flooded into Pakistan. The US provided $600 million in economic support, $30 million in agricultural support funds and $75 million in Foreign Military financing. It also reimbursed Pakistan $617 million for expenditure incurred on logistical and other support to the United States in the "war against terrorism" (provision of five air bases, air corridors and intelligence to the US military). In October 2002, the US Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) agreed to provide $125 million to PIA to help it buy seven new passenger aircraft from Boeing. That was the first time the Eximbank had underwritten a deal between Pakistan and a private US firm.

In December 2001, the IMF negotiated a three-year $1.37 billion loan programme with Pakistan. The first tranche of $333 million was disbursed in July 2002. That same month, the World Bank cleared $236.5 million in loans. Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank announced a $900 million loan package for Pakistan for 2003, and approved a financial-market governance plan in December 2002 for strengthening Pakistan's financial sector.

Meanwhile, China agreed to give Pakistan $198 million for the construction of the first phase of a new deep-water commercial port at Gwadar (which has since become operational). China also agreed in principle to finance the port's $500 million second phase. It also agreed to finance the construction of a new road link between Gwadar and the Karakoram Highway to western China's Xingiang region. It also agreed to finance the construction of the Mekran coastal highway linking Karachi to Gwadar, on which work is in full swing, and $250 million for the development of a deep water port at Gwadar, on which work is now also in full swing.

China has also indicated that it is prepared to finance the construction of a road link between Gwadar and the western Chinese province of Xinkiang -- a largely pastoral region where Beijing has launched a mammoth $5 billion development programme, including $250 billion in infrastructure projects and $250 billion in loans to indigenous entrepreneurs to set up industrial enterprises in the region.

In recent months, however, the gloom and doom brigade is back in business again with a vengeance, and hardly a day passes without it coming out with dire predictions concerning Pakistan's economic and political future, with imperiled-security warnings thrown in for good measure.

I, for one, have never been a member of this journalistic gloom and doom brigade. Sure, we've got many economic and other problems, but I'm pretty sure we'll get over most of them in due course. Already, there are signs that the aid pipeline is beginning to flow again.

 

firstperson

Youthful exuberance

Our sacrifices for the PPP were forgotten and we were left with no option but to follow our own course

By Inayat Ali Shah

Sikandar Hayat Khan Sherpao was recently elected as the NWFP president of Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao (PPP-S). Despite his young age, he has twice been elected as an MPA. Born in October 1976, he received his early education from the PAF School, Peshawar. He did his graduation from Edwards College, Peshawar, in 1994.

Though Sikandar was an average student academically, he still strived for higher studies. His liking for management sciences took him to Drake University, Des Moines, Iowa, in the United States. He returned to Pakistan in 1999 after completing his BBA. He had every intention of going back to the US for his master's degree, but circumstances compelled him to join politics. It was something he had not anticipated, or at least not so soon in his life.

At the time, after having fared poorly in the 1997 general elections, the PPP was at the lowest ebb of its popularity in the country in general and in the NWFP in particular. Sikandar had to give up his studies and pursue a political career to organise the party for which his uncle, the late Hayat Khan Sherpao, had sacrificed his life and his father, Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, had devoted 20 precious years of his life.

Sikandar recalls that it was not a smooth sailing for him, because the PPP was split and his family and party workers had to fetch for themselves. First as the PPP-S general secretary and now as the party's provincial president, Sikandar says he and his colleagues have made every effort to organise and strengthen the party as a vibrant platform for the progress and prosperity of the NWFP in particular and the country in general. He pledges to do constructive criticism while remaining in the opposition with the support of like-minded politicians all over the country. The News on Sunday interviewed him recently in Peshawar. Excerpts follow:

 

The News on Sunday: What were the reasons that caused your split with the PPP?

Sikandar Hayat Khan Sherpao: Hayat Khan Sherpao and Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and their colleagues were the people who established the PPP in the NWFP. My uncle Hayat Sherpao was martyred in this political struggle. Then, in the coming decades, my father Aftab Sherpao remained the NWFP president of PPP and worked day and night to strengthen the party in the province. He was supported and elected by the people in every election. The wedge that ultimately caused split in the PPP was poor results in the 1997 general elections. Subsequently, we demanded elections in the party for all seats. The intention was to reform the party. The only reason that the PPP could not win the support of masses was the dissatisfaction of party workers. There was no say of the workers in party affairs. Certain leaders in the PPP were against the genuine demand we were making. They were clearly against holding election in the party.

In April 1999, an acting NWFP president of the PPP issued a show cause notice to Aftab Sherpao on groundless allegations. This later culminated in his expulsion from the party. The chairman of PPP-S never left the PPP; he was forced to leave it. The late Benazir Bhutto constituted a two-member committee to resolve the matter, but it all went in vain. Since then, we have been sidelined and pushed to the wall. Our demand for reforming the PPP with the support of party workers and leaders was the only reason that we were ignored. Our sacrifices for the party were forgotten and we were left with no option but to follow our own course. Obviously, we could not leave politics. The PPP-S was organised and we contested the 2002 general elections under a separate symbol. To serve the people, we also joined the government later.

TNS: Were you elected as NWFP president of your party or was it a nomination?

SHKS: Of course, I was elected by the Provincial Council of PPP-S. I would like to add here that democratic norms prevail in the decision-making of our party. Every office-bearer is elected. Instead of an individual's say, party decisions are made collectively. A ready-made decision is never imposed without following the democratic procedure.

TNS: Are there any prospects of your party's merger with the PPP?

SHKS: No, there seems to be no such prospects because we have come a long way. Almost a decade has passed since we parted ways. Many things changed in the course of time. Even today, the real leaders of PPP and lieutenants of Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto are not at the helms of affairs. We are still struggling for those very ideals of democracy that were dear to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Hayat Sherpao.

TNS: As the NWFP president of PPP-S, what are your priorities for the party and people of the province?

SHKS: To imbibe a new spirit in the rank and file of the PPP-S with utmost attention to the economic development of the NWFP. The people of the province are often disappointed with the rulers for whom they have voted to be served better. Politicians should not only legislate, but also facilitate economic uplift to every house, street, villages and city to dispel the impression that they do not care for the people. The NWFP has a great potential for human development. Pukhtoons are the second largest ethnic group in the country. Given opportunities in terms of proper education, they could contribute immensely to the progress and prosperity of the nation. The province is one of the richest in natural resources. The PPP-S will strive for the untapped exploration of these resources, so that our youth could have easy access to jobs. In a nutshell, the main priority of PPP-S at the moment is how best it could serve the people of the province who are on the verge of utter hopelessness.

TNS: How peace could be restored in the NWFP and FATA?

SHKS: The problem with restoration of peace and improvement of law and order situation is that a political problem was not dealt politically. The first thing is to analyse the multi-dimensional issue and sort out the root causes. As far as sense of alienation, deprivation and frustration exists among the tribal people and those of the province, the problem could not be addressed in a viable manner. One has to approach these people, talk to them, and win their confidence and support for bringing about peace to these areas. Confusion will further enflame the problem.

When the matter was debated in the joint sitting of the parliament, the use of forces was projected as the last option. But, on the ground, it is being used as the first option. The jet fighters are still targeting innocent tribal people. With each passing day, the drone attacks on our soil are increasing, even reaching the settled districts of the NWFP. These attacks had put many things at stake. It is a violation of our sovereignty and sanctity of the country's borders, and a major reason behind the spiralling violence in FATA and some districts of the NWFP. The progress and development in the restive parts of the country is nowhere in sight. The decisions made in the joint setting of the parliament were yet to be materialised in letter and spirit.

TNS: As a member of the NWFP Provincial Assembly, do you see any outstanding issue of the province with the federal government?

SHKS: Yes, there are many. Since the 1991 water accord, the province has been deprived of 2.1 million acre feet (MAF) of water, but so far no compensation has been made. We demand the implementation of the AGN Kazi formula in this connection. While the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) owes the province Rs110 billion in net hydle profits, as decided by the arbitration committee during the previous provincial government, the actual amount is much more. We also urge the Awami National Party ANP-led coalition government to take practical steps in this regard, though so far they have nothing in this regard. The province is underdeveloped and requires all-out financial support of the federal government for progress. Given the situation in the NWFP, it requires extra attention from the federal government. A time has come to start mega projects in the NWFP, so that the people could see a positive change in their lives.

TNS: What is your party's stand on the renaming of the province?

SHKS: Yes, we support it. Earlier the very resolution about the renaming of the province was moved by Aftab Sherpao in the NWFP Assembly during Sardar Mehtab Khan's coalition government in the province. The majority of Pukhtoons living in the NWFP deserve to be given their identity; however, there are issues that need more immediate attention. What people require today is socio-economic progress. Above all, what they expect from the government is the protection of their lives and property.

TNS: Do the PPP-S support the restoration of the deposed judges?

SHKS: An independent judiciary is a prerequisite for democracy. However, the issue of judges' restoration has been complicated in the course of time. Our stance is that there must be a free

and fair judiciary in the country as an important organ of the state.

 

  The 'war on terror' in Karachi

Expediency has its own logic

By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar

Expediency is to be expected in the game that is power politics. It is not that principles are not invoked, or even that they are not sometimes upheld, but more often than not principles are expendable while power is not. As the post-Musharraf dispensation has unfolded, there have been numerous disappointments, most related to the inability of the elected government to wrench free of imperial dictates, on both the 'war on terror' and economic fronts. But perhaps even more difficult to swallow for those who want to see people's rule flourish in this country is the Muttahida Qaumi Movement's (MQM's) retention of power even after its primary benefactor, Pervez Musharraf, has long gone.

It is argued that the MQM had to be accommodated in Karachi, because it would have fomented chaos if in the opposition. But the events of the past week or so have made it clear that the MQM can and will perpetrate brutal, arbitrary violence against those it considers a threat regardless of whether it is in government or not. This should already have been clear following the events of May 12, 2007, but, as I have already asserted, expediency has its own logic.

It is quite amazing that what can essentially be termed a policy of ethnic cleansing is going largely unreported in the print and electronic media. Headlines continually suggest that mobs are 'unidentifiable', and statements from 'Ground Zero' are circulated in which the MQM condemns the violence. It might be recalled that at least some segments of the media took on the MQM on and after May 12, 2007, and that this posture was instrumental in exposing the MQM's lies. Unfortunately, on this occasion, the posture is markedly different.

Granted the tension in Indo-Pak relations is centre-stage right now and very little else can compete. But this does not excuse the complete lack of coverage of the pogroms that are taking place in Pukhtoon and, to a lesser extent, Baloch parts of Karachi city. Needless to say the targeting of these ethnic communities by MQM goons is precipitating a reaction, and so once again Karachi is in the grip of mindless violence and most residents of the city are simply hoping and praying for respite.

Most Karachiites have been fearing the worst for some time now. Altaf Hussain and his cronies have been harping on about 'Talibanisation' in Karachi for months. In effect, the MQM has been concerned about the influx of thousands of refugees from FATA and settled parts of the NWFP, who have been fleeing the brutal bombings conducted by American and Pakistani aircraft in the newest phase of the so-called 'war on terror'. Of course, the MQM has remained mum about these bombings, while resorting to the worst kind of profiling by labelling any and all Pukhtoons who resemble a particular prototype as 'Taliban'.

Those who have followed Altaf Hussain's speeches in recent times know that he has been calling for women in MQM strongholds to take up judo, for families to start arming themselves and various other outrageous initiatives in response to the so-called 'Talibanisation'. This is not the first time that the MQM leadership has clearly incited its followers to violence and likely will not be the last. Throughout this period, the federal government and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Sindh leadership have not intervened, resigned to the fact that Karachi really is, as Altaf Hussain reiterates from time to time, the MQM's town.

The Awami National Party (ANP), so vocal in its condemnation of the MQM after the May 12 incident, has also avoided confronting the latter this time. The ANP is, of course, a major presence in Karachi due to the massive Pukhtoon population in the city, but it too has clearly accepted that there is nothing to be gained politically from trying to take on the MQM in its backyard.

And so Karachi burns again. In short, the so-called 'war on terror' has been brought to Karachi. Tragically, the same Pukhtoon refugees, who have already been the victims of untold suffering due to the carpet bombing of their homes up north, are now the victims of the MQM-sponsored ethnic cleansing campaign at the other end of the country.

It is cruelly ironic that a party that continues to draw upon an identity of 'refugee' (mohahir) is so wicked in its treatment of the refugees of today. In fact, the MQM was born out of the defensive reaction of educated mohajirs to the influx of Pukhtoons and Punjabis into Karachi after the Green Revolution on the one hand, and the patronage doled out by the PPP regime in the 1970s to under-represented Sindhis on the other. Mohajir nationalism in Pakistan is markedly different from the ethno-nationalism of the Sindhis, Balochs, Pukhtoons or the Bengalis when they were still part of the country. The mohajir is a privileged community that has seen its privileges being eroded over time, and this is what has given rise to the fascism of the MQM.

This is not to suggest that mohajir working people do not have legitimate claims to rights and resources; but, as with any nationalism gone bad, there is a fine line between genuine claims and visiting violence on the 'other' whose claims are just as genuine. The MQM is a face of the establishment that is unique because of its populist dimension, and it is not enough to simply wish it away. Then again, the see-no-evil, hear-no-evil attitude of the PPP and ANP in the current conjuncture is simply not good enough and augurs badly for the future of both parties.

In the final analysis, marginalising the MQM is a task that only the people of Karachi can undertake. Mainstream political forces clearly do not have the will to take on the challenge, at least not as they are currently constituted and given their tendency towards expediency. Interestingly, the only head-on challenge to the MQM mounted by any political party of note in recent times was in the form of Imran Khan's party filing a legal petition against Altaf Hussain in the United Kingdom. Little seems to have transpired on that front. In Karachi, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) disputes the MQM's claim to hegemony from time to time, but the JI is yet another face of the establishment.

After May 12, 2007, an unprecedented opportunity existed to isolate the MQM once and for all, but the opportunity was missed. In the here and now, what is required at the very least is a coming together of all democratic forces to expose the MQM's 'gangsterism'. Those who remain silent will be counted as complicit in the crimes that the MQM has committed against thousands of innocents. History will not forgive such silence.

 

Apathy to the needy

Considering the problems

Pakistan is faced with, the suicide rate is only bound to climb in the coming days

 

By Tahir Ali

"He was lying on the ground exposed to severe cold when we saw him first that night," says Naveed, 40, a feeble and aged man from Mardan. "He was in a pitiable state with his ragged clothes soaked in his urine and wastes causing a bad odour. What he said was not discernible, which made it impossible for us to know his identity. We took him to a house where we gave him meal, warm clothes and quilt to sleep," he says.

"The next morning we took him to police station. The police officials guided us to a magistrate who ordered his shifting to Darul Kifala. The incharge there refused to take him saying that the Darul Kifala was meant for young beggars or drug addicts. We also contacted the Edhi Home in Mardan on phone, but the authorities there also declined to take him citing various constraints. So we again brought him to the police station," says Tariq, 38, an artiste who was all praise for the support the police offered.

Tariq recalls that then they took the man back to the magistrate who shifted him to a hospital for medical care. "When we reached there, the hospital staff examined him and said that he was not ill, but was only weak. So, they also refused to admit him saying that the hospital was not an inn. We were back to square one. Where to take him now?" Leave him from where you picked him up, someone remarked.

"Several others made a mockery of our endeavours and dubbed us stupid, ones that have unwarranted compassion. So he was left alone. He was yet again left where he had been picked up from. He lay there in the open sky for a few days on a busy roadside. We took quilts and sheets to him, so that he could be saved from chilling cold, but thieves took these away. A few days later, on a chilly morning after the recent rains, he was found dead," Naveed laments. Tariq informs that the dead body of the poor man was taken by municipal workers later.

Similar incidents have been happening frequently for the last several years. Thousands have lost lives to dacoits, terrorists, suicide bombers and military operations. Similarly, natural calamities have displaced many people, deprived many families of their sole bread-earners, orphaned thousands of children, widowed women and 'povertised' the society as a whole. Numerous instances of collective suicide by poor families have also been reported. The poor finish themselves either by swallowing poisonous pills, jumping down from tall structures like Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore, or by shooting and burning themselves to death. The recent episodes of dumping of a weak baby in the garbage by her parents, because they were unable to afford her medical treatment, and the handing over of eight children to the Edhi Home in Karachi by mothers, because they could not feed them, speaks volume of where we are headed for as a state and society. It proves that we have become a heartless society.

Thanks to the coverage of such events, incidents of this sort come to the limelight now more than in the past. When these cases get coverage, the affected families are approached and assisted in most of the cases. This also reminds us of the miseries of the poor and our responsibilities to them, which we always tend to neglect. However, what is reported may still be a fraction of the incidents that actually happen daily. The fact is that poverty has hit millions hard and these reported cases only signify the tragedy millions are faced with.

Quite evidently, our society has become collectively indifferent and callous to the people in distress and the needy. "When I contemplate the state of the nation, I feel that our social and intellectual deprivations are more crucial than our economic and material constraints," opines Ghazi Salahuddin, a famous newspaper columnist. What has brought about this apathy to the needy? Does this mean that the entire population in Pakistan is faced with an economic crunch? Or is it because we have got far from moral values? What brought about this change? Questions such as these necessitate a critical analysis of the problem.

When you look at the extravagant lifestyle of our rulers, you cannot say that we are a poor nation. The increasing number of luxury cars and multi-storeyed plazas in the country point to something else. Luxury hotels are always filled to capacity. Expensive schools, that charge fees which could be enough to feed several families, are in full swing. Real estate prices have gone up by leaps and bounds, but newer and costly housing schemes are still in high demand. Our marriages, even condolence gatherings, are flamboyant to extremity. We are not poor when it comes to seeking personal pleasure and relief.

In not so distant past, our society was famous for empathy to the destitute. The needy, poor, orphans, widows, injured and passengers would be taken care of by their relatives, neighbours and commoners. There were no or very few orphanages, Darul Kifalas, Darul Amans and no array of social welfare or charity organisations. Relief and rehabilitation work on individual, family or neighbourhood levels was enough to ensure that no destitute was ever left at the mercy of circumstances.

Rich relatives that would neglect or forget their needy and poor relations would be looked down upon / excommunicated by the people. The rich would feed, educate and cure their deprived neighbours. People would help anyone in need whether they were familiar with them or not. But now our society has developed into a 'jungle of humans', a place which is inhabited though by humans but is devoid of any fellow feeling. Sympathy, sincerity, helping the needy, humility and courtesy are now signs of weakness and stupidity in our eyes.

Our social structure has changed. Individualism has replaced communalism. This, on the one hand, has provoked self-centred mentality and on the other a tendency to ignore our responsibilities vis-a-vis others. This individualism has also paralysed the family unit which was and still is a bulwark against hazards to the poor in society. Urbanisation too has gravely impacted the family unit, because it displaced and disunited families, thus harming the prospects of helping poor relations in the hour of need. Begum Bilquis Edhi recently attributed the breakdown of the family unit to soaring unemployment, price-hike and the rising cost of living. Hujra and mosque were community centres, but both stand deserted now -- while the former is virtually extinct, the latter has unfortunately been developed into a disuniting element and a target for terrorism.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank dictated anti-poor policies of privatisation and deregulation of economies, consumerism and the resultant status-building / maintenance psyche too have dealt blows to the tendency to help the poor. The rich avoid poor relatives to evade embarrassment. Even old parents can be disowned in front of friends if their association can be harmful to status, let alone poor strangers that need help.

The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. Prices of essential items are going up. Most of the subsidies on essential items have gone, while the rate of general sales tax (GST), which affects the poor the most, has been increased from 15 to 16 percent. Those at the helm are wasting billions on their useless tours, security and amusement. Education, health, security and housing of the people have been left to themselves. Even lesser resources and attention are allocated to development of agriculture. In the given circumstances, the majority of population is constrained to curtail its expenses. The poor-friendly mentality, in turn, is the real loser.

To my mind, the establishment of welfare and charity organisations working for the needy and poor too has contributed to the phenomenon. People are just content with handing over their money, goods and animal hides on Eidul Azha to them. The writer acknowledges their positive role, but the possibilities of laxity, corruption, nepotism and favouritism in their work cannot be ruled out altogether. "Some, if not all, religious and welfare outfits are exploiting the situation and the poor. We feel satisfied by helping these outfits. We do this either because we have confidence in their integrity or mostly because we have no time to look for the poor ourselves. But the money so paid may not reach the needy. In my view, 80 percent of funds and aids meant for alleviation of poverty are wasted in unnecessary areas. That is why the number of people below poverty line is increasing," explains Nawab Gul, a social worker.

The new age and its accessories ñ Internet, TV, computer, mobile sets, etc ñ too have alienated and dehumanised us. Access of everything is bad and our enormous preoccupation with these gadgets cannot be an exception. We have become time-deficient for social responsibilities and family members, what to talk of the poor. While the fact is that time is available to all in equal amount, so none can face shortage of time provided his priorities, habits and activities are right, balanced and well within his or her resources.

Extensive coverage to terrorist incidents has also helped produce this mentality. Firstly, by constantly looking at gory scenes, some have developed mental and psychological problems; still more have adapted to it and are least bothered; and even more dangerous is the psycho-social malady of people recording gory scenes with their mobiles after blasts and accidents amid cries for help by the injured. Can we dare compare the trend to the Roman Arenas where the nobility took pleasure in viewing and discussing the brutal killing of innocent humans by wild animals?

 

 

A potential threat

Analysts predict that the next Indo-Pak way will not be over Kashmir, but water

 

By Sibtain Raza Khan

Since the subcontinent's partition, there have been various issues causing ups and downs in the Indo-Pak relations. Nonetheless, along with Kashmir, one of the major consistent contentions between the two nuclear rivals has been on water sharing. According to many analysts, it is not Kashmir but water that will become the source of future conflict between India and Pakistan.

In 1960, the water sharing issue between these two South Asian neighbours was initially resolved through the World Bank that mediated the Indus Water Treaty, granting the exclusive use of waters from the Indus and its tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab, to Pakistan; while Ravi, Beas and Sutlej were allocated to India. However, the water issue has resurfaced time and again in the bilateral relations pertaining to some loopholes in the Indus Water Treaty and India's breach of the treaty repeatedly.

The treaty contains provisions for India to establish river-run power projects with limited reservoir capacity along with flow control required for power generation. India has established several projects of this nature, most of which have not been objected by Pakistan. However, Baglihar and Kishan-Ganga projects provide strategic leverage to India to control the flow of river, which can critically destabilise Pakistan's agricultural development at India's will and may also lead to early depletion of the Mangla dam. The Baglihar dam project has 450-megawatt capacity of hydel power generation and a storage capacity of 15 billion cusecs of water, which has significantly reduced the water flow in the Chenab river and, thus, has been a serious concern for Pakistan.

The Baglihar issue is once again in focus, because its repercussions for Pakistan were manifested by the recent negative affects of water scarcity for the agriculture sector and reduced water level in Chenab. Under the treaty, Pakistan is assigned 55,000 cusecs of water, which was reduced this year to only between 13,000 cusecs in winters and 29,000 cusecs in summers. Pakistan, being an agrarian society, cannot afford such water shortages.

Unfortunately, the international community and the World Bank have not supported Pakistan's objections, despite India's repeated violation of the treaty. Earlier in 2005, Pakistan sought the World Bank's involvement to stop the construction of the Baglihar dam, but the Bank only asked India to reduce the dam's height. If such violations of the treaty continue, Pakistan is bound to face severe consequences in future.

A report published in 2005 indicates that India's violation of the Indus Water Treaty could also lead to a widespread famine in Pakistan, as the country relies on the Indus river and its tributaries for almost half of its irrigation needs. There are also concerns within some Pakistani circles that India could flood Pakistan by releasing a huge amount of water in case of a hostile situation. Both these scenarios are not very unlikely. According to UN sources, there is a danger that unfair distribution of water can become the subject of international conflict in the coming years.

The global climate change is also adding to the problem of water scarcity. According to Dr AH Qazi, a senior climate advisor at Greenpeace, the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, most of South Asian countries (including Pakistan) and western South America are at risk of water shortage due to the global warning. Qazi says the unfriendly and inflexible attitudes among neighbours like India and Pakistan in bilateral relations are also raising the issue of water scarcity. If the water dispute lingers on between the two countries, it is only likely to intensify in future and will create greater problems for the region.

In a positive development, lately India has given some positive signals regarding resolution of the water dispute. In October, the Indian prime minister said after meeting with his Pakistani counterpart in Beijing that India wanted to work seriously for resolving the water dispute, and that it "would not be allowed to affect the peace process between the two countries". However, no substantial step has been taken to compensate Pakistan for the losses due to water shortages this year nor any assurance has been extended to avoid future violation of the Indus Water Treaty.

With the recent Mumbai attacks, any serious development on the issue appears unlikely, at least in the near future. Though the Indian water commissioner just concluded his routine visit to Pakistan last week, to assess the damages incurred by Pakistan due to the water shortages in the Chenab river; however, he could not offer any valid excuse for violating the treaty. Later, during Pakistan's foreign minister's recent visit to India, India refused to give any commitment to compensate Pakistan for water losses caused by the filling of the Baglihar dam. With such inflexible attitudes, improvement in any sphere of relationship is unlikely to be achieved.

One factor that has come to forefront not very long ago is the Kashmiri reaction over the water issue. For instance, Athar Parvaiz writes: "Thanks to the Indus Water Treaty, only 40 percent of the cultivable land in the state can be irrigated and 10 percent of the hydroelectric potential harnessed." Srinagar-based economic expert Arjimand Hussain Talib says that the "power houses built on these rivers are generally owned by the Indian government without taking into consideration the fact that they basically flow through Jammu and Kashmir." Such a scrutiny of the issue was almost non-existent earlier and does have a potential to create challenge for the Indian government from within in future.

With the ongoing global financial crisis, food scarcity and increasing energy demand, the burden on water and other resources is bound to increase. The growing gap between demand and supply will create tensions not only within countries, but also between the states sharing water and other resources. India and Pakistan need to resolve their differences in time to avoid undue hostility in their bilateral relations. The Indus Water Treaty is among the few working treaties between India and Pakistan and its failure will have very serious consequences for the two countries. Therefore, India needs to respect the treaty and also keep in consideration the rights of its neighbouring states.

As for Pakistan, in addition to India's repeated violation of the treaty, mismanagement on the part of Pakistani decision-makers cannot be overlooked. The lack of storage capacity, disputes and delays in construction of new dams, and failure in diversification of means of energy generation have all added to problems for Pakistan. In case the differences over water sharing continue, Pakistan would be at a greater disadvantage. Therefore, prudent and firm decision-making to address water storage, proper water utilisation and diversification of power generation sources to reduce the implications of reduced water availability needs to be formulated and executed at the earliest.

(Email: sibtainrazakhan@yahoo.com)

 

livelihood

New avenues

In a positive development, women's access to and control over micro-credit is increasing in Pakistan

 

By Shaheen Rafi Khan

Traditionally, conventional banks avoided loans to the rural poor, particularly to women, because they could not offer collateral, the risk of loan defaults was high and the small size of loans led to high administrative costs. The Grameen Bank-model overcame these obstacles through peer-group lending. The microfinance model is revolutionary in the sense that it successfully challenged conventional perceptions and proved that non-collateral-based loans to the poor can be a profitable endeavour. Microfinance is now an important tool for poverty alleviation in the world, with a rapidly increasing global outreach. The World Bank estimates that the total number of microfinance institutions worldwide is approximately 7,000, with a total outreach of about 16 million borrowers and lending of about $2.5 billion.

Any new development initiative draws its share of detractors. Microfinance, in particular, is controversial because it seeks to reconcile commercial and social objectives. The aim is to generate income, alleviate poverty and empower women through initiatives that are profit-motivated and restricted to commercial banks. Not surprisingly, the critique is hard-hitting and diverse, embracing capitalist motives, patriarchy and class divisions. However, while, thought provoking, the critique is far from being an indictment. Clearly, microfinance has found favour with governments, donors, commercial banks, non-governmental orgnaistaions (NGOs); and the surging global disbursements speak for themselves. The flaw lies in the process rather than the principle, and this is what we turned to while framing the hypothesis for our research.

In our national study, we posited that micro-credit needs to be rooted in an appropriate institutional context to generate income and empowerment benefits. This institutional context is provided by the Rural Support Programmes (RSPs). Originally, the RSPs focussed on empowering communities to undertake collective development and social service delivery. About a decade ago, they added micro-credit in an effort to energise the entrepreneurial potential of low-income communities. The RSPs are now the largest providers of micro-credit to women in Pakistan in volumetric terms.

However, the qualitative aspect is more important in assessing credit impacts. And that is where the RSPs have a legitimate claim to primacy over other development agencies. Inspired by the development tenets of the late Akhtar Hameed Khan, the RSPs have now firmly established themselves at the forefront of rural development in Pakistan. This fact has generated positive outcomes in terms of income and empowerment. Specifically, both prior social mobilisation and institutional transparency have ensured that peer group lending does not degenerate into an arrangement for exploiting women.

We assessed RSP performance against four criteria. Two of these criteria -- access to credit and institutional delivery -- are a direct commentary on the breadth and depth of the RSP's credit outreach. The other two criteria -- credit benefits and women's empowerment -- assess social and economic impacts, and are the defining test of institutional effectiveness.

 

Access to credit

The average monthly income for households in the target group receiving credit was Rs13,710. In contrast, the income for households in the first control group (community organisations not receiving credit) was Rs7,000. This suggested that marginalised households were being excluded from the credit programme and indicated a weakness in it. A concern was that an almost two-fold gap emerged between those members getting credit and those not getting credit; putting the latter way below the poverty line by our estimates.

There could be two reasons for this: first, the RSPs operated within a tight financial discipline and, therefore, creditworthiness was a concern; second, the community organisations were themselves reluctant to accept households they felt were at risk of default, which affected their collective credibility. However, mobility and decision-making ability for this group improved thanks to the programme's activities.

On the other hand, consumption and food expenditures of credit-receiving members improved about twice as much that of those not receiving credit. This clearly suggests that credit did generate income benefits. The RSPs have already addressed the non-inclusion of marginalised households. They have revised the eligibility criteria across the country and, as a result, the lowest income groups are receiving credit and their repayment record is good.

 

Institutional delivery

The target group took the bulk of their loans from the RSPs, as opposed to other sources. The loans were primarily for home-based activities, such as livestock and poultry-raising, cloth-cutting and stitching, leather-cutting, handicrafts, shop supplies and agricultural inputs. The women respondents cited simple procedures and home-based loaning as the primary reasons for taking loans from the RSPs. The second reason, home-based loaning, reflects their cultural inhibitions and low exposure to the outside world. Lower interest rates received low priority; clearly access to loans took precedence over the loan terms. The bulk of the respondents indicated that it had been easy to access the programme, the loan process was easy to follow and the loan turn-around time was also reasonable ñ the bulk of the loans were processed in about a month.

The majority of the respondents felt that the loan -- Rs10,000 -- was adequate. Very few loan denials were recorded and an insignificant number (less than one percent) of respondents admitted they defaulted on loans. In the aggregate, only about 14 percent of the loans were used for other-than-the-designated purposes. Most of these misdirected loans were used for household consumption, to repay other loans and for catering to emergencies. There was no evidence that women were used as a front by men to siphon off loans. In fact, family enterprises came across as a collectivity in which all members engaged to facilitate the business. In particular, the men stepped in when cultural and social barriers inhibited women's mobility or their access to markets.

Training, business support and savings proved to be the weak points of RSPs. The respondents expressed an interest in both vocational and business training. Only 23 percent of the respondents indicated they received technical back-up from the RSPs. Actual savings performance was at odds with the interest shown in the subject at the meetings of community organisations. About 80 percent of the respondents confirmed that the RSPs had set up savings schemes. However, while impressive, this did not translate into actual savings. Almost 75 percent of the respondents indicated their savings fell below Rs7,500. There appear to be legal obstacles that prevent a more robust outcome of savings. Still, in the interest of eventual financial independence, the RSPs need to devote more attention to this area.

 

Credit benefits

Credit benefits are defined as increases in incomes, employment and assets. We also evaluated changes in household expenditures on nutrition, health and education. The income and asset benefits were substantial. Seventy five percent of the women indicated they owned their business. And in this smaller sample, 70 percent indicated their income had increased. Over 30 percent of the respondents reported an increase in assets and almost one third of the cohort said they had reinvested in their business. In volumetric terms, the monthly income increase was quite substantial, ranging from Rs2,500 to Rs10,000 per month. The additional assets consisted of new rooms, durables house improvements and increases in livestock.

 

Women's empowerment

We examined two aspects of women's empowerment. First, to what extent are women the main agents in the loan process? The survey revealed that women engaged actively in all aspects of loaning, with 86 percent of the respondents involved in loan processing and 53 percent in business activities. Over 95 percent of the respondents said they had no problems with the loan staff; unlike Bangladesh, cases of harassment were few and far between. Close to 90 percent of the responding women needed their men's permission to take loans. However, 60 percent of these women indicated they took the loan on their own initiative. Over 40 percent of the women respondents said they took loans on their men's behalf. The bulk of these (over 71 percent) were business loans. Frequently, men were urged to repay their loans, but this rarely gave rise to violence.

Second, and more important, to what extent were women empowered as a result of taking loans? We observed that the extent of such empowerment varied with how project-specific the activities were. The most notable improvements were in the areas pertaining to the project: business and financial decisions, working with the RSPs, and mobility. A high proportion of women had begun to participate in the meetings of RSP, as well as other group and social activities. This reflected the self-confidence they had acquired as useful earning members of the family. Another achievement was the increased ability to make personal decisions, such as spending on themselves, as well as decisions regarding personal savings.

However, the further removed from project-related issues they were, the less empowered did women feel. They were more constrained when it came to decisions regarding their marriages, contraception, their children's dowries, entertainment and election choices. In time, economic independence may give them a measure of freedom with regard to marriages, contraception and dowries. However, religion and culture will continue to be inhibiting. Election choices have the clan imprint and tend to be removed from inter-family choices.

Also, men were not doing much more to help women in the housework despite their additional economic responsibilities. On most issues, such as child care, cleaning, shopping, getting fuel / water, more than two-thirds women reported no change. However, assessing change is a matter of interpretation. One could highlight the fact that one-third of the women did note a change in this regard. Given that social change is generally glacial, this number is quite dramatic. Overall, of the 305 women who responded in the target group, 42 percent claimed that their status in the household had improved moderately and 30 percent claimed a high improvement after getting credit.

In conclusion, this development initiative is institutionally and financially well grounded. It addresses poverty by focussing on livelihoods. As such, it avoids the subsidy-dependence that characterises most government poverty alleviation programmes and which in time proves to be a source of their undoing. The bedrock of social capital ensures institutional sustainability and ownership. Finally, strict accountability standards and transparency impart the kind of credibility that macroeconomic stabilisation and sector policy programmes tend to lack. Only too tragically, there is little to show for the billions invested in such programmes other than a crippled and devastated economy. It is true that the process-driven nature of these initiatives means that the results are slow to materialise, but once they do the ripple effects are swift provided an enabling policy environment is in place. Unfortunately, we live in a regime of easy policies that tend to blow in the wind. The need instead is for a policy climate that underpins a paradigm shift in development and a major change in mindsets.

(The writer works with Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad.

Email: shaheen@sdpi.org)

 

 

More of the same

The IMF's prescriptions for tax reforms does not promise much

 

By Huzaima Bukhari and Dr Ikramul Haq

On November 25, 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved $7.6 billion, 23-month standby loan for Pakistan. As expected, a number of conditions have been imposed by the IMF, of which we will discuss only those here that relate to Pakistan's tax system. The foremost demands of the lender are to expand the tax net (without knowing that already 40 million people are paying taxes at source) and make changes in the tax structure for increasing general sales tax (GST) by Rs50 billion in the ongoing fiscal year (FY09). The most stringent condition is that Pakistan must surrender control of monitoring the revenue collection to the IMF; six of its directors and two of the World Bank will supervise the preparation of the federal budget of Pakistan.

Many experts, notably Meekal Ahmed and Abid Husain, are of the view that there is nothing intrinsically wrong with tax reform programmes proposed by the IMF and World Bank for Pakistan. According to them, these programmes have nothing to do with subjugation and dictation. "In our long association with the IMF, going back some 60 years, we have never completed a programme (except for once), thus the country has one of the poorest implementation records in the IMF," Meekal Ahmed says. He laments the fact that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has received more technical assistance and advice than any other government department, but it has accomplished nothing.

After five years of the World Bank-funded Tax Administration Reforms Programme, our tax system is more dysfunctional than it has ever been before. Meekal Ahmed has aptly points out that "it has actually deteriorated over time with a declining tax to GDP ratio". He further views that this poor record has nothing to do with the IMF or the World Bank or expensive consultants; it has something to do with us. "Our present economic crisis is a familiar one, with our irresponsible policies having brought us, once again, to the brink of default. Again, this has nothing to do with the Bank or the IMF. However, they remain our favourite scapegoats for all our economic failures," Meekal Ahmed observes.

The critics of the IMF and` World Bank, on the other hand, blame both Pakistani tax administrators and the foreign agencies for the poor functioning of our tax system. Their main objection is that the IMF and World Bank try to impose their prescriptions without understanding the mundane realities of Pakistan. Since they interfere directly in day-to-day affairs of the FBR, they cannot absolve themselves of failures in tax reforms. Since 2001, in the name of simplification of tax laws, the FBR has been imposing more and more obligations on the citizens without corresponding tax rights in tax codes.

The nation has been burdened with enhanced withholding tax obligations without any compensation. This is the sordid story of the tax reforms in Pakistan. The new 'reform' agenda, to be undertaken with the IMF's first tranche of $3.1 billion, will be no different. More money will be given to handpicked consultants, who hardly know anything about tax laws, policy and administration, and successful implementation of tax reforms. More workshops are going to be held to waste public money. The nation is going to have more well-equipped tax dacoits. The entire process will be carried out under the umbrella of the IMF, World Bank and other lenders.

The IMF and others are least pushed about the inequitable character of our tax system, under which the burden of taxes is less on the rich and more on the poor. In the face of this stark reality, the IMF is suggesting more regressive taxation, such as enhanced GST and presumptive taxes in income tax law. Over a period of time, our tax system has become rotten, oppressive, unjust and target-oriented. There is a dire need for discussing the philosophical framework, the principles of equity and justice, which should be the main concern of our tax policy; not mere achieving of targets set out by the foreign lenders. Our tax managers are meeting budgetary targets through oppressive taxes, shifting incidence on the poorer segments of society and exempting the rich.

The great divide between the poor and the rich will further expand under the IMF prescriptions. The FBR may manage to collect more taxes, but this will not serve the real purpose of redistribution of wealth, which is at the core of any pro-people tax policy. On the one hand, we are not collecting taxes according to the policy of 'capacity to pay'; while, on the other hand, annual targets are fixed to further squeeze the already dried tax base.

The rich remain outside the tax net, while the poor are paying 16 percent GST on even a basic commodity like salt sold under brand names. When tax was imposed on salt in the colonial era, the visionary leaders of that time staged a revolt against such high-handedness. But in the post-independence period, the IMF- and World Bank-imposed rulers are playing havoc with the economic life of the common people by levying exorbitant tax on salt and many other everyday items. It is tragic that neither the politicians nor any of the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have raised voiced against this injustice.

We can collect much higher taxes if the incompetent, inefficient and corrupt tax machinery is overhauled. The real tax potential of undeclared income / wealth in Pakistan is between Rs3 and Rs4 trillion, even according to very conservative estimates. If we manage to collect tax revenue of Rs3-4 trillion in the coming three financial years, the government will not require fresh domestic and foreign loans. The collection of taxes to these levels can eliminate budget deficits. As a result, Pakistan will be in a position to retire debts in the shortest possible time.

The common argument against paying taxes is that money so collected is spent for wasteful purposes and on unprecedented benefits enjoyed by high-placed civil-military bureaucrats and corrupt politicians. These classes will have to demonstrate through their actions that taxes collected are not meant for their luxuries. They will have to reduce non-development expenses by at least half immediately.

The government must earmark revenues for specific purposes and place the same in funds created for debt retirement, creation of employment zones and provision of social services, such as education, health, housing, etc. This will inspire the people to contribute to the national exchequer. This is the only way that revenues can be generated through voluntary compliance and at the lowest possible cost. We should liberate ourselves from the 'reform' programmes of the IMF and World Bank. Tax policies implemented by successive governments in the past on the dictates of foreign lenders led to abject poverty for the vast majority of the people.

These policies can never make us self-reliant; on the contrary, they are detrimental for economic stability in the long term. If we manage to formulate a rational tax policy through public debate and parliamentary process, and implement it through consensus and not coercive measures, there is every possibility to ward off the IMF and World Bank in the shortest span of time. However, if we continue following their prescriptions, we will neither tap our real tax potential, nor achieve the cherished goals of self-reliance, rapid industrial and economic growth, and justice for all.

(The writers, tax advisers, are visiting professors at Lahore University of Management Sciences.)

 


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