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CONTESTS Cliffhanging
vote Tug
of warriors A
mixed bag Burden
of aftermath
Editorial For the one-day-before- Special Report, we decided to concentrate on those national and provincial constituencies that may see close contests tomorrow. We decided to exclude all other factors because this looked like a sensible and do-able way of analysing contests. Ultimately the results matter and everything else fades in the background. In at least two provinces, the 'close contest' description does not hold anymore. Sindh, we are told, may not see any of these 'neck and neck' in the aftermath of the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto on Dec 27. A clean sweep for PPP in rural Sindh is being widely predicted. Karachi, MQM's stronghold, may see a tougher battle in some constituencies but that's where the prediction ends. Balochistan is the other
province that has not seen an election fervour so far, nor of course many Punjab and NWFP are the two provinces where there's going to be some really close and interesting fights between heavyweights of yesteryear and some new entrants. In these two provinces the APDM boycott has not had a decisive effect on the campaign and many constituencies are being watched by analysts with their fingers crossed. By and large, the election everywhere in the country is being fought between forces of status quo and change, or put simply it's an anti-Musharraf election as campaigned by the opposition. The last attempt to save the federation called Pakistan. Traditionally enough, Punjab has come up as a major political battlefield where tough fights and photo finishes are expected By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed Punjab With just a day to go in the holding of general elections and political campaigning having come to an end, observers, political parties, common voters and the like are reconsidering their estimates about the possible, 'final' tally. While some have come out with an approximate number of seats likely to be won by different parties, there are those also who find it difficult to make any predictions in such uncertain times. More so, when you have so many close finishes expected in 'evenly poised' games. Of all the provinces,
Punjab remains the most significant, at least in terms of the number of
its No one can say anything with surety about results in any constituency, but one thing is certain -- these specific contests are on the minds of hundreds of thousands of people and feeding their curiosity. TNS makes a random selection of such constituencies for review, in order to provide the readers with an opportunity to place their bets on candidates of their choice. To start with, the constituency NA 140 in Kasur sees two former foreign ministers -- Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali and Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri -- pitched against each other. In the elections of 2002, they had contested from NA 139 in the same district but were defeated by Chaudhry Manzoor Ahmed of PPP who literally travelled the entire length and breadth of his constituency on his motorbike. However, Khursheed Kasuri was able to make it to the National Assembly on the ticket of PML-Q by defeating Maulana Moeenuddin Lakhwi from NA 140. Both Sardar Asif and Khursheed Kasuri are veterans and have contested against each other as well as taken their turns. But this time around, an independent candidate Hasan Akhtar Mokal is expected to play an important role as political analysts believe he is going to divide the vote bank of Khursheed Kasuri. There are rumours that he has been made to contest from this constituency by some elements within PML-Q who do not want Khursheed Kasuri in the parliament and in the race for the country's premiership in case his party comes to power. Similarly, in NA 55, Rawalpindi, there is a tough contest expected between Sheikh Rashid Ahmed of PML-Q and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi of PML-N. Both have been student leaders and friends since their college days. The constituency is said to be the stronghold of Sheikh Rashid as he has won his seat in all the last six elections. In the elections of 2002, Sheikh Rashid contested as an independent candidate and defeated PPP candidate with a lead of around 12,000 votes. Later, he joined PML-Q. Another interesting fact about NA 55 is that as many as 22 candidates are contesting from this constituency. Quite a number, indeed! Another fact worth noting is that Sheikh Rashid has always contested against strong candidates and performed well. He defeated Ghulam Husain, former mayor of Rawalpindi, in 1985, General (r) Tikka Khan in 1988 and Benazir Bhutto's political secretary in 1997. It is also expected that a large number of people will vote for PPP in the constituency as it was in Rawalpindi where she was shot down. Though the PPP candidate may not win, he is likely to make a significant dent in Sheikh Rashid's votebank. It was after the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto that an angry mob tried to torch the famous Lal Haveli of Sheikh Rashid. It is also believed that Sheikh Rashid will suffer because of his affiliation with the party in whose government the Lal Masjid operation was carried out in the adjoining city. Meanwhile, the attention of the local and international media continues to be on the political battle in NA 105 in Gujrat where PML-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat Husain and PPP candidate Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar take on each other's might. Chaudhry Shujaat has previously won this seat five times over and Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar just once (in '93), with a lead of nearly 10,000 votes. Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar has been PPP's candidate in this constituency since 1990. In the elections of '88, Mushtaq Pagganwala contested on PPP ticket and lost to Shujaat by 10,000 votes. The difference in the number of votes secured by both Chaudhry Shujaat and Ahmed Mukhtar in the four contests has ranged from around 6,000 to even 41,000. In '02, Shujaat's lead was close to 14,000. Ahmed Mukhtar is hopeful that it's the turnout ratio of PPP voters that will matter the most in the elections. These voters, the party believes, will go to the polling station, however worse the security conditions may be, while those of the PML-Q will not come out of their houses. Some quarters are also of the opinion that the strong-arm tactics used by PML-Q in NA 105 can do more harm than good to the party. Stories reaching the press about this constituency include those about the threats given by Chaudhry Shujaat Husain's brother Chaudhry Wajahat Husain to those supporting his brother's opponents. Wajahat wields immense power in the district. He is known as commander in Gujrat and maintains a battery of loyalists who form the famous 'Wajahat Force'. The never ending tussle between PML-Q's Faisal Saleh Hayat and PPP's Syeda Abida Husain in NA 88 is also the focus of everyone's attention. Both belong to the spiritual house of Shah Jewna and enjoy immense influence on the locals. Another close relative of theirs -- Syed Raza Ali Bukhari -- has got ticket from PML-N. A nephew of PPP Punjab President Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, he initially tried to get the PPP ticket but could not succeed. Both Faisal and Abida have been contesting against each other from this constituency since 1990. It's for the fifth time that they have come face to face. Of the last four elections, Faisal has returned as a successful candidate in three and Abida in only one. In fact, Benazir Bhutto is believed to have given party ticket to Abida despite her past defections just to give a tough time to Faisal. On his part, Faisal is banking on the development work that he has done in the constituency over the past five years. Being a darling of the government for forming the Patriot Group after defecting from PPP and helping it with a single majority vote, Faisal could get any type of project fund. Besides, he could get employments for the youth in his locality under all the three ministries that lay with him during the tenure of the outgoing government. Abida, on the other hand, expects to win mainly due to the sympathy vote as well as the popular vote that PPP enjoys. In NA 118, Lahore, former Punjab Governor and PML-Q candidate Mian Muhammad Azhar is caught in a neck-to-neck fight with PPP candidate Pir Asif Hashmi. A unique fact about this constituency is that nobody has won for the second time over in the last six elections; every time you find a new face. It's also an opportunity for Mian Azhar to prove that his defeat in the last elections was engineered and the result of a well planned conspiracy. The contest among Chaudhry Pervez Elahi and two former MNAs in NA 61 of Chakwal -- Sardar Mansoor Hayat Timan (PPP) and Faiz Muhammad Timan (PML-N) -- is also a thrilling one. Similarly, the contest between PML-Q's Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar and PPP's Makhdoom Shahabuddin in NA 194 can end in favour of either of the two. Both belong to the same Makhdoom family and are claimant of their inherited votebank. The fight between speaker National Assembly Chaudhry Amir Husain of PML-Q and Dr Firdous Aashiq Awan of PPP in NA 111 is getting tougher by the day. Dr Firdous also terms the notice taken by Election Commission of his opponents' use of state machinery as her success. PPP had even demanded Chaudhry Amir Husain's disqualification for visiting his constituency as acting president of Pakistan but he was only barred by the ECP from visiting his constituency temporarily. The list of exciting and close contests mentioned above is, by no means, exhaustive. One can expect major upsets in these elections and see one-sided electoral fight turning into a cliffhanger. To put simply one can say the unexpected outcomes and uncertainties shrouding the general elections of 2008 are, in fact, its real attraction. The contesting candidates are trying their best to give a tough time to one another at the polls, while the government is putting in its best to ensure a peaceful election By Ejaz Khan Balochistan Despite Balochistan government's reassurances that elections 2008 will be held in a peaceful manner on all the 14 National Assembly and 51 Provincial Assembly seats, the Pashtun and Baloch nationalist groups in the province carry on with their anti-election moot. The contesting candidates, on the other hand, have been running lacklustre campaigns. The issue of law and
order continues to haunt the government officials, particularly in areas
where Many see the elections as a stand-up competition between the government and the opposing parties rather than a contest between the candidates. The parties that have boycotted the polls -- APDM -- have already put forth an appeal to the general public to stay indoors on the election day, while the government is urging the voters to use their right of franchise and has also launched an awareness raising campaign in this regard. In this tug-of-war, the nationalist groups including PkMAP, BNP-M and NP have announced that they will observe protest day on Feb 18 (tomorrow) and are expected to give a call for wheel-jam strike in the province. Therefore, APDM -- eager to prove that the elections are a disaster -- is busy calling on the people not to be a part of the process. The contesting candidates are trying their best to give a tough time to one another at the polls, while the government is putting in its best to ensure a peaceful election. The countdown to elections has already begun, but there has been practically no election-related activities in the province. The streets and roads of Quetta itself presented a deserted picture. Some of the PML-Q and PPP candidates recently took the initiative to install banners in their constituencies but a majority of candidates did not find the idea workable and at best restricted themselves to corner meetings. Perhaps, the most interesting contest on the National Assembly seats in Balochistan is likely to be witnessed in NA 259, Quetta, and NA 264, Zhob-cum-Sherani-cum-Killa Saifullah. In NA 259, where the candidates of PML-Q and PPP are trying their best to win the seat, former governor Balochistan Syed Fazal Agha -- also a contestant -- is running his election campaign. Pashtoons, Balochs, Punjabi settlers who normally play a decisive role and Hazaras are the major, influential communities in the region. The fight is likely to be tough at the polls, with the results showing an ethnic colour. Surprisingly, none of the past three winners -- Hafiz Hussain Ahmed of JUI-F who was elected in 1988, Mehmood Khan Achakzai who won his seat in 1993 elections and Maulvi Noor Muhammad of JUI-F who was elected from his constituency in 2002 -- are contesting this time. The success of Maulvi Noor Muhammad of JUI-F from this constituency in 2002 was a surprise for many observers as it comprised Pashtoons, Balochs and other non-locals while all other winners from this constituency -- whether Hafiz Hussain Ahmed or Sardar Fateh Muhammad Hasni -- were from Baloch backgrounds. But, the thumping majority of Maulvi Noor Muhammad who secured 22111 votes in 2002 against Mahmood Khan Achakzai who polled 17240 votes had turned the tide. In 1993 general elections chairman PkMAP Mehmood Khan Achakzai won this seat securing 47,559 votes against Sardar Fateh Muhammad Hasni who contested the polls on the ticket of PPP. This record victory of Mehmood Khan Achakzai had become possible simply because of the PkMAP's alliance with the PML-N. Since the non-local particularly Punjabi community is quite influential in the provincial metropolis and the lower and middle level businessmen had complete trust in PML-N on that time so they polled the votes in favour of Mehmood Khan and created a history in this constituency. A hot contest is also expected in NA-264 (Zhob-cum-Sherani-cum-Killa Saifullah) where JUI Ideological group's Maulvi Asmatullah is flexing muscles against the provincial chief of JUI-F Maulana Muhammad Khan Sherani. Needless to say that both groups are confident of their victory in the polls. While, Hafiz Fazal Muhammad Baraich, who is contesting the elections from NA-259 Quetta, with election symbol of Takhti is facing JUI-F's Maulana Abdul Aziz. Indeed, the vote bank of JUI has increased in Balochistan since 1970's. The Jamiat had secured two seats in the 1970 elections and with the passage of time and because of issues like the US attack on Afghanistan after 9/11, the vote bank of JUI shot up. As a result the religious group bagged 18 seats in the house of 65 in the 2002 elections. Besides the contest on the NA seats, tough competitions are expected for the six provincial assembly seats of Quetta district where about 117 candidates are contesting the elections on the tickets of several national and regional political parties as well as a score of independent candidates. The competitors are PPP, ANP, MMA, PPP-S and PML-Q NWFP NA 1 Peshawar-I In the roll-call of members of the National Assembly, the constituency NA 1 Peshawar-I comes first. Its winner, thus, occupies a special place. The MNA from Peshawar also draws prestige for representing the capital of the North-West Frontier Province. ANP's Ghulam Ahmad
Bilour has been winning and losing from NA 1 Peshawar and the score of his NA 3 Peshawar-III The presence of PML-N secretary general Iqbal Zafar Jhagra, who held the same office in the ARD, in the contest has made this rural Peshawar important. However, he doesn't have much of a chance against ANP's Mohammad Hashim Babar, PPP's Noor Alam Khan, JUI-F/MMA's Azizuddin and PML-Q's Mohammad Intikhab Khan. The 2002 winner Maulana Fayyaz ur Rahman Alvi, a JUI-F-MMA stalwart, isn't contesting even though he and his party was least expected to retain the seat. The two major contenders are the ANP and PPP candidates. The former is a retired bureaucrat and the latter a political activist. NA 4 Peshawar IV PML-Q's NWFP president and former federal minister Amir Muqam is contesting from two National Assembly and two provincial seats. Apart from his native Shangla district where he is trying to retain his National Assembly seat that he won on the MMA ticket in 2002, he is also trying his luck from NA 4 Peshawar where he has invested and time and money by sponsoring development projects in recent years. One of the provincial seats he is fighting falls in the same NA 5 Peshawar constituency and the other is in Swat. However, the tag of being an outsider and the general unpopularity of PML-Q has made it difficult for Amir Muqam to defeat strong opponents such as ANP's Arbab Mohammad Zahir and PPP's Azam Afridi. The frontrunner at this stage is Arbab Zahir, who has won this seat in the past, but Azam Afridi is capable of springing a surprise. NA 7 Charsadda-I This is one of the two seats that ANP president Senator Asfandyar Wali Khan is contesting. The other one is NA 12 Swabi-I, where he is seen by some voters as an outsider and hasn't been able to campaign due to illness. Usman Khan Tarakai, an engineer belonging to one of the richest families in Swabi, has put up a spirited, money-backed challenge against him in Swabi and could upstage him. But Asfandyar Wali should win his native seat, NA 7 Charsadda, easily against Alamzeb Umerzai of PPP-Sherpao and PPP's Naseer Mohammad Khan, who is being opposed by some of his party activists for being a newcomer and former PML-Q man. Last time, Asfandyar Wali lost to JUI-F/MMA candidate Maulana Gohar Shah, who isn't contesting, and another loss would raise questions about his leadership of the once formidable Pashtun nationalist party. NA 9 Mardan-I Khwaja Mohammad Khan, once the PPP NWFP president, is now the ANP candidate in this constituency. His three rivals are PPP's Khanzada Khan, who once won this seat, Maulana Shujaul Mulk, who triumphed in 2002 with a huge margin against former federal minister Abbas Sarfaraz Khan, and PML-Q's Shad Ali Khan. The ANP and PPP contestants would decide the outcome and one of them would emerge the winner on February 18. NA 14 Kohat Former federal minister Syed Iftikhar Hussain Gillani, who is contesting as an independent after joining and quitting quite a few parties, is one of the main contenders in the constituency along with Malik Mohammad Asad Khan. The latter, too, is an independent even though he had been awarded the PML-Q ticket. PML-N's former MNA, Javed Ibrahim Paracha, retired from the contest in Malik Asad's favour and the argument he presented to back his decision was that he would join the PML-N after winning the seat. One cannot say if Malik Asad would join PML-Q or PML-N after winning but one would like to predict that he would join the party that wins the elections in the country. Though Malik Asad seems to have an edge, Iftikhar Gillani has also covered lot of ground and become a formidable candidate. NA 18 Abbottabad-I Former federal minister Amanullah Jadoon from PML-Q and PML-N's Sardar Mahtab Ahmad Khan, who served as chief minister of NWFP and also federal minister in the past, have renewed their rivalry in this constituency after having fought bitterly for the seat in 2002. Jadoon emerged victorious the last time but he is struggling against the resurgent PML-N, which has a solid votebank in Hazara. NA 19 Haripur Umar Ayub Khan, grandson of late President Ayub Khan and son of Gohar Ayub Khan and Zeb Gohar Ayub, both former parliamentarians and holders of high offices, is pitted in a triangular contest against PML-N's Sardar Mohammad Mushtaq Khan and independent Raza Amir Zaman. The latter is son of late Sardar George Sikandar Zaman Khan, who served as caretaker chief minister of NWFP and federal minister. The two families have been old political and electoral rivals in Haripur. Umar Ayub and his parents have served the constituency well and his stint as minister of state for finance gave him an opportunity to pursue development projects for Haripur. But Raja Amir Zaman also did his bit for Haripur as district nazim and Sardar Mushtaq would benefit from the PML-N support base and his Gujjar biradri's votebank. NA 24 Dera Ismail Khan This is the old constituency of JUI-F head Maulana Fazlur Rahman and his later father Mufti Mahmud, who defeated the unbeatabale Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the 1970 elections. The Maulana faces an uphill task this time retaining this seat in the face of a tough challenge by the young PPP Faisal Karim Kundi, who had lost by about 6,000 votes in 2002. Kundi is being backed by almost all parties and groups active in Dera Ismail Khan's politics while the Maulana has struck an electoral alliance with PPP-Sherpao's Mureed Kazim, who is Shia and is trying to retain his provincial assembly seat. NA 26 Bannu Maulana Fazlur Rahman is also contesting from Bannu, apparently due to fear of losing his native seat in Dera Ismail Khan. All the parties including PML-N, ANP, PML-Q, etc have joined hands to defeat him by supporting an independent candidate Malik Nasir Khan, who is former MNA and was once a star player in Pakistan's hockey team. Former MMA chief minister and JUI-F leader Akram Durrani is campaigning for him by reminding the electorate that all the development projects that he sanctioned for Bannu became possible due to the Maulana's backing. But his opponents are trying to discredit the Maulana by telling voters that he is an outsider and would abandon the seat and instead retain the one in Dera Ismail Khan. NA 32 Chitral The PPP appears to be staging a comeback in Chitral, where it was once so formidable that Begum Nusrat Bhutto won from there without much campaigning. This would benefit PPP candidate Shahzada Ghulam Mohyuddin, even though he lives outside Chitral and got the ticket due to the influence of his mother Shahzada Begum Sulaiman, who is a former MPA. His main opponent is cousin and namesake Shahzada Mohyuddin, who has been fielded by PML-Q. The JUI-F and MMA candidate Maulana Jehangir has withdrawn from the contest due to slim chances of success and the JI, despite boycotting the elections, may put its weight behind retired civil servant and independent contestant Sardar Khan. However, the PPP nominee has a growing edge that could clinch the seat for him against his PML-Q rival. FATA All candidates, and there are more per seat there compared to rest of Pakistan, are independents in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) due to ban on political parties. Still political parties are backing several candidates, who this time couldn't get election symbols of their respective parties. The constituencies to watch would be the seven out of the twelve where pro-MMA candidates won in 2002. Six of those seven seats were won by JUI-F nominees while one went to JI when its candidate Haroon Rasheed won from Bajaur. The JUI-F has again fielded Maulana Merajuddin and Maulana Abdul Malik for the two National Assembly seats in South Waziristan and Maulana Nek Zaman in North Waziristan. It has replaced former MNAs Maulana Ghulam Mohammad Sadiq in Mohmand Agency, Maulana Mohammad Sadiq in Bajaur and Maulana Khalilur Rahman in Khyber Agency. However, the JUI-F candidates are facing tough contest this time and may not maintain some of their seats. This would create opportunities for contestants backed by other parties and independents. As in the past, most of the elected tribal parliamentarians would align with the winning party or coalition in return for a share in the government and the pie.
With Sindh still reeling from Benazir Bhutto's tragic assassination, PPP emerges a stronger force in the interior By Shahid Shah Sindh A month and a half after Benazir Bhutto's tragic assassination, Sindh remains largely engulfed in the sympathy wave. The loser, in this scenario, is none other than the king's party itself. If earlier the PPP candidates looked weak, compared to those of PML-Q, in certain areas, they are now in a position to hold their own. In fact, in an interesting turn of events, those PML-Q candidates who stood a fair chance of winning back their seats are now left wondering if it was wishful thinking. Arbab Rahim, for one,
will have to work hard to win against even a weak candidate of PPP, namely
Nawab Wali Mohammad Rahmoo. In several cities, the rage of the workers of
the PPP candidates In spite of the state's full-blooded support to the PML-Q candidates, PPP is tipped to make a clean sweep in Sindh. As for Karachi's 20 national assembly seats, PPP is likely to fare better than it did in the elections 2002. Similarly, the party is expected to regain its lost glory and clinch a good number of provincial assembly seats in interior Sindh. Arbab Rahim who is contesting from PS 60, Diplo, has a major opponent in Engr Wali Mohammad Rahmoo of PPP. This seat was considered a surefire Arbab seat, but now it will be strongly contested. Chhachhro's Sameja community and Rahmoo community who have been supporters of the Arbabs are now PPP loyalists. In 1988, Arbab lost in Nagarparkar while his relative Arbab Faiz Mohammad (late) won as an independent candidate from the constituency. In PS 62, Nagarparkar, Arbab Abdullah of PML-Q and Sharjeel Memon of PPP are gearing up for a fierce contest in polls. According to one analyst, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has changed the complexion of Thar's politics. In Dadu, there is a conflict situation emerging between the PPP workers and the supporters of PML-Q's Liaqat Jatoi, after the latter's guards opened fire, killing a PPP worker. In NA 232, Johi-Dadu, Rafiq Ahmed Jamali of PPP and Liaqat Ali Khan Jatoi are pitted against each other. Jamali won this seat in 2002, while his father won four times since 1988. The murder of Benazir Bhutto happened at a time when an anti-Jatoi sentiment was on the rise. Liaqat Jatoi's workers were caught terrorising the PPP supporters and demanding votes at gun point, says a local voter. A more direct conflict between the two groups is expected on the very election day. Analysts believe that Liaqat Jatoi won the 2002 polls through rigging, by a thin margin of 1,000 votes from NA 233. Jatoi fell out of favour with a lot of his workers and supporters after BB's assassination. In Larkana, Altaf Unar of PML-Q had a strong standing in NA 205 and PS 35, but PPP's Nazir Bughio and Ghulam Sarwar Sial are proving to be tough contenders for the national and provincial assembly seats respectively. In Ratodero's PS 37, Ameer Bux Bhutto, son of Mumtaz Bhutto, was deemed a strong candidate. But now PPP's Ayaz Soomro has emerged as a strong opponent. In NA 206, Qamber-Warah, PPP's Nawabzada Aamir Ali Magsi, brother of Nadir Magsi, faces Sardar Ahmed Chandio, son of district Nazim Nawab Shabbir Ahmed Chandio. Prior to Benazir's Chehlum, a tough competition was expected. The Chandios are also said to have removed the letter 'Q' from the name of the party (PML). District Badin is going to witness an interesting family feud at the polls. The ladies are contesting for the national assembly while their husbands take on each other in the provincial assembly. PML-Q's Papu Shah faces PPP's Zulfikar Mirza in PS 57, while Bibi Yasmeen Shah, wife of Papu Shah, is contesting against Dr Fahmeeda Mirza in NA 225. Papu Shah and his wife have been in the government ministry and senate. Common perception was that they would win again, but today the situation is completely different. The district management of Jacobabad finds winning support for prime minister's nephew real tough. In NA 208, Illahi Bux Soomro of PML-N and Mir Aijaz Hussain Jakhrani of PPP face each other. The full use of state machinery against the political opponents is for all to see here. Brother of the PPP candidate Taluka Nazim Sajjad Hussain Jakhrani has been sent to gallows in an anti corruption case. Jakhrani's family members are among those 8,000 workers of PPP out of which 400 have been nominated in cases of public and private property damage, after BB's assassination. Police has been raiding the houses of PPP workers and arrested at least 16 of them. Twelve of them received bail before arrest. Locals believe PPP is a potential winner in the constituency. In PS 13, Jacobabad, Sardar Manzoor Hussain Panhwar of PML-Q was a strong candidate but PPP's Ghulam Shahliani now has a clear edge. Similarly, in PS 15, former provincial minister of PML-Q, Sohrab Sarki will face PPP's Mir Hassan Khan Khoso, now considered a strong opponent. PML-Q's Ghaus Bux Khan Mahar was a successful candidate in NA 203, Shikarpur, since '88, although he often changed parties, PPP's Sardar Wahid Bux Bhayo has emerged a strong candidate. In NA 202, Shikarpur, PPP's Aftab Shabaan Mirani is likely to win against Ibrahim Jatoi. In NA 211, Nausheroferoze, PPP has to take on the might of Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi of National People's Party (NPP). Karachi's NA 250 is going to see the most interesting contest with PPP and PML-N fielding a joint candidate -- Dr Mirza Ikhtiar Baig -- against MQM's Khushbakht Shujaat, popular TV compere turned politician. Captain Haleem Siddiqui is also contesting from this constituency as an independent candidate. The Karachi-ites believe Siddiqui is going to divide some votes of PPP and PML-N.
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close fights. That is a different scenario altogether. A province under
virtual insurgency for the last couple of years, the traditional winners,
the Baloch nationalists, have decided to boycott the polls from the
platform of APDM, and are literally stopping people from going to polls.
Parliament does not offer a solution to their problems, the nationalists
say, and not without reason. The outgoing assembly is the reference point,
an assembly that could not prevent the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti and
the arrest of Sardar Akhtar Mengal, nor could it implement the
recommendations of its own parliamentary committee to meet the province's
demands. Chances are that the turnout will remain abysmally low in the
province. 'Lacklustre' is the exact word used by our correspondent.
National Assembly seats. Whosoever gets the lead here will have the
biggest say in the formation of government in the centre. So, obviously,
Punjab is central to the maximum number of political battlefields where
one can expect photo finishes and a tough fight between political heavy
weights who are pitched against each other.
Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) dominates and the Baloch belt
where Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) and National Party (NP)
are a potent force.
wins and losses is equal. One of his famous victories was against Benazir
Bhutto in the 1993 elections. He couldn't contest the 2002 polls being a
non-graduate and instead fielded his nephew Usman Bilour, who lost heavily
to MMA's Shabbir Ahmad Khan, who is out of the race this time due to the
boycott of the elections by his party, Jamaat-i-Islami. Having obtained
his graduation degree, Bilour is once again in the field on the ANP ticket
and his major opponent is PPP's Ayub Shah. Though there are 11 other
candidates including JUI-F and MMA's Abdul Jalil Jan in the contest, the
real fight is between Bilour and Ayub Shah. The latter would be getting
some sympathy vote following Benazir Bhutto's assassination and on account
of the revival of the old PPP spirit among party workers, but Bilour is
far more resourceful and an old hand at contesting polls. The contest is
too close to call even though everyone is describing Bilour as favourite
to win the seat.
forced Arbab Rahim as well as a few other leaders of PML-Q to chant
slogans of 'Jiye Bhutto'.