Precious few countries have escaped
the wave of selling that has swept through global
markets this year and those fortunate enough to have
done so are generally quite small, showing that this
year there is almost nowhere for investors to hide.
The Canadian, Brazilian and Mexican
markets had been holdouts but they too have now sunk
into negative territory year to date. The S&P/TSX
composite index is now down 4.5 per cent so far in 2008,
having crossed the line from positive to
negative this
latest time on July 7. Brazil's Bovespa stock index made
that same move at the beginning of July. That week, the
Bovespa plummeted 7.7 per cent. That index, which as
recently as late may had been setting record after
record aided by the upgrading of the country's credit
rating to investment grade, now is down 10.1 per cent
year to date. Profit-taking in the cyclical, increased
risk aversion, and fears of global stagflation and
interest rates have all factored into the decline.
Weighed down by sagging stock prices
for two of its biggest components, Wal-Mart de Mexico
SAB and wireless firm America Movil SAB, Mexico's Bolsa
index dropped into negative territory in the third week
of June. The two stocks account for almost a third of
the index. The fact that Mexico sends about 80 per cent
of its exports to the U.S. hasn't helped the situation
either, given the problems in the U.S. economy. The
selloff has continued since then, leaving the index 9
per cent below the level at which it started the year.
Mind you, those declines are modest
when viewed against the backdrop of global markets, a
number of which are officially in bear country. Europe
has a number of examples of the latter, including
France's CAC 40 index, Germany's DAX index and Italy's
S&P/MIB index. A market is considered to be in bear
territory if it has fallen 20 per cent or more from its
peak. The aforementioned markets have fallen more than
that since the year began. They are even further off
their peaks.
There are of course other members of
that unfortunate club, too. China is likely the one that
pops into most investors' heads first, given the media
attention to that nation's market. But its year-to-date
decline of 44.7 per cent, while certainly eye-catching,
actually pales by comparison with Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh
stock index's 53-per-cent plunge.
A whole host of problems have
contributed to the sorry state of affairs in the
Vietnamese market, not the least of which is an
inflation rate that hit 27 per cent in July, a figure
that likely only reflects a small part of this week's
fall in fuel prices. The news will, it is expected,
prompt yet another tightening of interest rates. Rates
have already been boosted three times this year and now
stand at 21 per cent.
So which countries have been able to
buck the trend in the markets? Venezuela and Costa Rica
are among the lucky ones; so too are a cluster of
countries in Africa and the Middle East. Lebanon's Blom
stock index for example has gained almost 35 per cent so
far this year, Tunisia's SE Tunindex has advanced 15.6
per cent and Qatar's DSH 20 index is up just shy of 23
per cent.
Some of those markets are quite
small; the BCT Corp. Costa Rica stock market index for
example has just six members. Liquidity can be a concern
with some of the smaller markets.
The breadth of the weakness in global
markets has made life difficult for investors. But Lisa
Myers, lead manager of the Templeton Growth Fund, says
history shows that the most successful investors are
those who take advantage of times of maximum pessimism
such as we have now to buy and they sell at times of
maximum optimism.
She looks for value almost everywhere
- in the U.S., in Europe and even in countries like
India. Europe is the cheapest in terms of
price/earnings, price-to-book value and dividend yields,
but she focuses on stock picking, not individual
markets.
The exceptions to her view of
attractive valuations are the commodity-based economies
such as Canada or Brazil.
Ms. Myers says investors need to be
patient and take a long-term view and seek out great
companies with good brands, great global strategies,
good management teams, high free cash flow yields and
good balance sheets that don't need to access the credit
markets to continue growing.
-- Angela Barnes