It may not top the must-see list of
many tourists. But to appreciate Shanghai's ambitious
view of its future, there is no better place than the
Urban Planning Exhibition Hall, a glass-and-metal
structure across from People's Square. The highlight is
a scale model bigger than a basketball court of the
entire metropolis -- every skyscraper, house, lane,
factory, dock, and patch of green space -- in the year
2020.
There are immense new industrial
parks for autos and petrochemicals, along with new
subway lines, airport runways, ribbons of expressway,
and an elaborate riverfront development, site of the
2010 World Expo. Nine futuristic planned communities for
800,000 residents each, with generous parks, retail
districts, man-made lakes, and nearby college campuses,
rise in the suburbs. The message is clear. Shanghai
already is looking well past its industrial age to its
expected emergence as a global mecca of knowledge
workers. "In an information economy, it is very
important to have urban space with a better natural and
social environment," explains Architectural Society
of Shanghai President Zheng Shiling.
It is easy to dismiss such dreams as
bubble-economy hubris -- until you take into account the
audacious goals Shanghai already has achieved. Since
1990, when the city still seemed caught in a socialist
time warp, Shanghai has erected enough high-rises to
fill Manhattan. The once-rundown Pudong district boasts
a space-age skyline, some of the world's biggest
industrial zones, dozens of research centers, and a
bullet train. This is the story of China, where an
extraordinary ability to mobilise workers and capital
has tripled per capita income in a generation, and has
eased 300 million out of poverty. Leaders now are
frenetically laying the groundwork for decades of new
growth.
Now hop a plane to India. It is hard
to tell this is the world's other emerging superpower.
Jolting sights of extreme poverty abound even in the
business capitals. A lack of subways and a dearth of
expressways result in nightmarish traffic. But visit the
office towers and research and development centers
sprouting everywhere, and you see the miracle. Here,
Indians are playing invaluable roles in the global
innovation chain. Motorola, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco
Systems, and other tech giants now rely on their Indian
teams to devise software platforms and dazzling
multimedia features for next-generation devices. Google
principal scientist Krishna Bharat is setting up a
Bangalore lab complete with colorful furniture, exercise
balls, and a Yamaha organ -- like Google's Mountain View
(California) headquarters -- to work on core
search-engine technology. Indian engineering houses use
3-D computer simulations to tweak designs of everything
from car engines and forklifts to aircraft wings for
such clients as General Motors Corp. and Boeing Co.
Financial and market-research experts at outfits like
B2K, Office Tiger, and Iris crunch the latest
disclosures of blue-chip companies for Wall Street. By
2010 such out-sourcing work is expected to quadruple, to
$56 billion a year.
Even more exhilarating is the pace of
innovation, as tech hubs like Bangalore spawn companies
producing their own chip designs, software, and
pharmaceuticals. "I find Bangalore to be one of the
most exciting places in the world," says Dan
Scheinman, Cisco Systems Inc.'s senior vice-president
for corporate development. "It is Silicon Valley in
1999." Beyond Bangalore, Indian companies are
showing a flair for producing high-quality goods and
services at ridiculously low prices, from $50 air
flights and crystal-clear 2 cents-a-minute cell-phone
service to $2,200 cars and cardiac operations by top
surgeons at a fraction of U.S. costs. Some analysts see
the beginnings of hypercompetitive multinationals.
"Once they learn to sell at Indian prices with
world quality, they can compete anywhere," predicts
University of Michigan management guru C.K. Prahalad. A.
T. Kearney high-tech consultant John Ciacchella: "I
don't think U.S. companies realise India is building
next-generation service companies."
Simultaneous takeoffs:
China and India, rarely has the
economic ascent of two still relatively poor nations
been watched with such a mixture of awe, opportunism,
and trepidation.
The postwar era witnessed economic
miracles in Japan and South Korea. But neither was
populous enough to power worldwide growth or change the
game in a complete spectrum of industries. By contrast,
possess the weight and dynamism to transform the
21st-century global economy. The closest parallel to
their emergence is the saga of 19th-century America, a
huge continental economy with a young, driven workforce
that grabbed the lead in agriculture, apparel, and the
high technologies of the era, such as steam engines, the
telegraph, and electric lights.
Barring cataclysm, within three
decades India should have vaulted over Germany as the
world's third-biggest economy. By mid-century, China
should have overtaken the U.S. as No. 1. By then, China
and India could account for half of global output.
Indeed, the troika of China, India, and the U.S. -- the
only industrialised nation with significant population
growth -- by most projections will dwarf every other
economy.
What makes the two giants especially
powerful is that they complement each other's strengths.
An accelerating trend is that technical and managerial
skills in both China and India are becoming more
important than cheap assembly labor. China will stay
dominant in mass manufacturing, and is one of the few
nations building multibillion-dollar electronics and
heavy industrial plants. India is a rising power in
software, design, services, and precision industry.
True, annual trade between the two
economies is just $14 billion. But thanks to the
Internet and plunging telecom costs, multinationals are
having their goods built in China with software and
circuitry designed in India. As interactive design
technology makes it easier to perfect virtual 3-D
prototypes of everything from telecom routers to turbine
generators on PCs, the distance between India's low-cost
laboratories and China's low-cost factories shrinks by
the month.
One implication is that the balance
of power in many technologies will likely move from West
to East. An obvious reason is that China and India
graduate a combined half a million engineers and
scientists a year, vs. 60,000 in the U.S. In life
sciences, projects the McKinsey Global Institute, the
total number of young researchers in both nations will
rise by 35 per cent, to 1.6 million by end of 2008. The
U.S. supply will drop by 11 per cent, to 760,000. As
most Western scientists will tell you, China and India
already are making important contributions in medicine
and materials that will help everyone.