Singh, presenting his first budget after serving as foreign minister, is regarded as the economic reformist face of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

But that side of the veteran politician is unlikely to come to the fore with politics expected to drive the 2003/04 budget.

Analysts say he will aim for a relatively expansionary feel-good budget that will seek to avoid electorally unpopular moves.

"This isn't the time for any innovative or bold budgets. The finance minister has little room for manoeuvre," T.K. Bhaumik, economic adviser to the Confederation of Indian Industry, said.

The BJP, facing a slew of state polls this year in the lead-up to a general election due in 2004, fared badly with last year's budget, which got bad reviews from the party's middle-class backers.

Even though inflation is rising, analysts expect pump-priming moves to boost Asia's third-biggest economy, whose growth is forecast to slow in 2002/03 to 4.4 percent from 5.6 percent. "It will be a relatively expansionary budget. The finance minister has already spoken about putting more money in the housewife's wallet and food for the poor," said Bhaumik.

To drive consumer demand, duty cuts are expected on cars and consumer durables such as fridges and TVs. More money is also likely for irrigation, rural roads, health and primary education.

The moves will mean slippage on the deficit, which ratings agencies say is a big obstacle to growth reaching the eight-to-10 percent needed to ease poverty in the country of one billion.

The federal deficit is forecast at 5.3 percent of GDP for 2002/03 and the consolidated deficit of the national and state governments is close to 10 percent, keeping India's sovereign ratings at junk levels.

Economists believe the national government will overshoot its deficit target this year, especially since it has fallen far short of its goal of raising 120 billion rupees from privatisation, due to stiff political and labour opposition.