It's only the third-day in June, but
already investors are growing fearful about end of
quarter earnings reports. There's still almost a month
to go before most public companies close out their books
for the second-quarter, ended June 30.
Meanwhile, on Wall Street, analysts
are slashing profit forecasts that still look way too
high to me.
Already, high-profile investment firm
Lehman Brothers (which, like some other brokers, closed
its books May 31) plunged in value on speculation of a
large loss this quarter. It will be Lehman's first loss
in nearly 25 years – and more asset write-offs are
likely. Lehman will fess-up on June 16… stay tuned.
Also, two leading banks just sacked
their CEOs amid mounting sub-prime losses. Wachovia get
rid of Ken Thompson, who had the misfortune of buying
California lender Golden West Financial for $25 billion…
pretty much at the top of the sub-prime boom two years
ago.
More Heads Will Roll on Wall Street
That acquisition turned out… badly, to say the least.
Meanwhile, Washington Mutual's Chairman will "step
down" according to the bank.
These are just the latest casualties
from the sub-prime credit crunch, but rest assured, more
heads will role before this financial reign-of-terror is
over.
And it's not just the financial
sector issuing bad news as earnings season approaches.
Other blue-chip names including Ford Motor and Dow
Chemical have reported negative earnings surprises
recently.
Overall, S&P 500 profits are
expected to drop 7.3% this quarter, according to current
Wall Street estimates. Ah, but it's still early! Just a
few months back, at the beginning of 2008, analysts
expected mid-single-digit profit gains in both the
first- and second quarter.
Of course profits plunged almost 18%
in the first quarter. So Wall Street was somewhat off
target then, and probably is again now.
Separating the Second Quarter Winners
& Losers
Financial stocks are expected to fare
the worst, once again this quarter (surprise, surprise).
"They are predicted to suffer a 44% earnings fall
after an 80% drop last time around," according to
the Wall Street Journal. Consumer discretionary shares
are next in line, with an earnings hit of -10% expected
this period.
There is some good news however.
Energy sector stocks should post 16% earnings gains,
which is no surprise with sky-high oil and gas prices.
Tech-sector profits are also expected to shine this
quarter, which is a pleasant-surprise to investors amid
a slowing economy.
Technology stocks are enjoying a
healthy export boom, due in part to the falling buck,
but also from healthy demand from overseas markets. The
vast majority of big tech firms from Intel to Cisco now
generate the majority of sales from outside the U.S. –
and business is still booming in many of these areas.
Also, tech companies just aren't as
impacted by soaring raw-material costs, like rising oil
prices, which does impact so many other sectors of the
economy.
The result is likely to be 15%-plus
profit gains for technology shares this quarter. That's
a very nice showing amid the Wall Street gloom.