![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
legacy 'Her
killing has actually broken the federation' 'Time
proved that my criticism was correct' 'Only
a democratic set-up to have a new social contract' 'Until
the will of the people is reflected...' 'No
political party should hope to form a stable government' 'Our politics
needs some healing touch' 'Present
system of government is unnatural' 'I
am not very optimistic'
All
the King's men
Can the formula of Bilawal serving as the 'Bhutto guarantee', Zardari as the glue that keeps the party together and Fahim as the cool head needed to head a coalition government be enough to keep PPP at the forefront as the main contender? That's the million-dollar question the party is facing What is the one common
thing among Maulana Kausar Niazi, Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Ghulam Mustafa But this is not all. Also common among the above people (apart from ZAB and Benazir and, obviously, Ghinwa -- who merely succeeded Murtaza) is an amazing array of other facts: all claimed/still claim ZAB as their true leader and inspiration, served him as loyalists for as long as he lived and rebelled against the leadership of Benazir with the allegation that she was betraying her own father's ideology. They may have loved ZAB
dearly and rebelled against his daughter with the overvalued confidence of
beating her at the representation of Bhuttoism. How silly! History shows that
each only ZAB has been dead for 28
years, of course. And now Benazir is gone, too. Now no one needs to rebel
either against 'Father Bhutto' or against 'Daughter Bhutto'. It took the
mighty PPP barely 100 hours to select a new lea The husband: 'Proxy Benazir' Asif Zardari is a shrewd
operator, with more than just a controversial streak as his identifying
trait. He has a proven track record of being a skilful political negotiator
-- his 'greatest hits' being blunting the two no-confidence motions in the
National Assembly against Benazir, bringing Nawaz Sharif closer to the slain
former prime minister and opening up the doorway to the military for
discussions on a working relationship -- from behind bars. The establishment
has been much more comfortable dealing with Zardari as a 'proxy Benazir' However, to use a cliche,
it has not been a bed of roses for Asif Zardari being the husband of Benazir.
Yes, this privilege has meant sharing the prime minister house and the power
to make or break political and business deals (the percentage of the latter
has always been contentious!) but the price of this advantage has been huge
-- eight years in jail, not to mention derision. His long stretch of years in
prison following Benazir's unkind ouster sponsored by Leghari in 1996, in
particular, was harrowing. The variety of harassment meted out to him
included attempts to poison him and to cut up his tongue with a knife (unamusingly
blamed on him). While he was always guilty in the court of public opinion (of
corruption and abuse of office), he earned his stripes as the most wronged
person in the PPP through his time in jail and by emerging unscathed from th The son: Bhutto's new 'Facebook' Bilawal is the new face (some would say Facebook) of Bhutto. The unwitting rise to the fore of the 19-year-old represents the 55% demographic of today's Pakistan: 85m Pakistanis are aged 20 or under. It's not just his pedigree
that catapaults Bilawal as the country's 'First Teenager', it helps a great
deal that he's a spitting image of his iconic mother. What he has going for
him is what even Benazir did not -- Benazir represented the legacy of her
father Bhutto but Bilawal is 'Bhutto squared' -- the political legacies of
both Bhutto and Benazir on his tender And as most teens his age,
Bilawal is naive -- four days after his mother's tragic assassination he had
emphatically declared on his Facebook platform: "I will soon be the
leader of Pakistan!" Really? He will first have to grow up to be 35
years of age (that's 16 years away!) to be eligible to become prime minister
under Article 62 of the constitution. Or up to 40 years (that's 19 years away
-- as old as he is now!) to become president under the same Article. Can he
wait that long? When the adrenaline cools down and the hormones are harnessed
over the next many, many years, he may have other ideas. But if he is
consistent, he certainly will deserve to take revenge of his mother's
assassination that he has sworn himself to, by fighting for democracy. It
will be interesting to see if he hangs three pictures on the wall behind him
when he makes his first 'Meray aziz hamwatno!' speech -- those of Jinnah,
Bhutto and Benazir. And what if he also decides that his father is as
important, politically, as his mother? What about Zardari's picture? If so,
he'll have to have a much smaller flag on his table The lieutenant: As loyal as they come! Amin Fahim is as loyal as they come. Unquestioning, unpretentious and... unequal. This man has never grieved Benazir. With his amiable demeanor and his unapologetic cool, he ensured that it made no difference to Benazir whether she was away for one year in exile or ten. Her party held its own, thanks to him. And this is no mean feat. Amin Fahim substituted for
his leader ably not just in the party itself but in the National Assembly for
an astonishi Political parties form a
key part of the basis on which the entire edifice of democracy rests. And the
PPP of ZAB and Benazir has certainly earned its colours as the one party in
the country most experienced, oriented and deserving to represent that
largest single chunk of voters. Pakistan has the first-past-the-post system
of voter-stamped victory. Had there been the proportional representation
system, the PPP would have formed (certainly that was the mandate each time
from the people) all the governments formed since 1970, except 1985 (partyless
elections) and 1997, as a result of adult franchise. Except when Naw
That indeed is the litmus test of the 3-man succession of Benazir at the party helm -- can the formula of Bilawal serving as the 'Bhutto guarantee', Zardari as the glue that keeps the party together and Fahim as the cool head needed to head a coalition government be enough to keep PPP at the forefront as the main contender? It's difficult to say for sure but everyone will find out by the end of February whether the PPP is the people's party or was Benazir's party.
By Adeel Pathan TNS: Who, in your opinion, targeted and assassinated Benazir Bhutto? Dr Qadir Magsi: I strongly
believe that Benazir Bhutto was killed because she was a Sindhi and the Benazir was also a target because of her stance on the Balochistan issue. She had announced that her party would give amnesty to the Baloch nationalists and openly condemned the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti and others. She always spoke of democracy, supremacy of parliament and constitution in the country. TNS: How do you see the scenario after the assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto and prospects for Pakistan People's Party? QM: Sindh is still not out of shock. Pakistan People's Party may get the sympathy vote in this upcoming elections, especially in Sindh province, but people of Sindh in general will stop thinking about federation. Nationalist politics is likely to gain momentum and would play an important role in the parliamentary politics in the next elections. TNS: What are the major grievances of Sindh with the federation? QM: There are many. First of all the structure of federation is not acceptable as provinces have not equal representation in the federation and indigenous people of Sindh have no right to rule their own motherland. Establishment-backed parties like Muttahida Quami Movement are thrust on the people of Sindh. The province is deprived of its economic rights and despite injecting 70 per cent resources into the national exchequer millions of people of this province are jobless. TNS: How do you see the future of federation? QM: I think it all depends on the attitude and conduct of the establishment as breaking up of the country, hanging of Zulfikar Bhutto and killing of Benazir Bhutto proves that they are not willing to run things. The establishment is working on the directives of international forces. TNS: In your opinion what triggered the widespread violence in Sindh especially after the assassination of Ms Bhutto? QM: The anger of people, especially those belonging to Sindh, against Pervez Musharraf increased since Sindh was already pushed to the wall with controversial water projects like Kalabagh dam. Their anger multiplied after the assassination of their leader Benazir Bhutto. TNS: So, who do you think is responsible for creating anarchy in the country? QM: We must remember that we're talking about the rule of just one man -- Musharraf -- together with a mostly Punjabi establishment. It's about Musharraf's team and the extremists in the establishment who can go to any extent to serve each other's purposes. Benazir Bhutto wanted to keep the federation intact, but after her death there is no existence of such a thing as federation. TNS: What could be the repercussions of Benazir's killing, especially in Sindh? QM: She was against any separatist movement and kept herself away from any nationalist politics. Her killing has actually broken the federation. The international media had predicted years ago that Pakistan would not be seen on the future maps of the world. The killings of Nawab Akbar Bugti and Benazir prove that these predictions carried weight. TNS: How could the authorities save the day? QM: The only option left for Musharraf is to step down and hold free and fair elections and give complete autonomy to the provinces, with promise of an independent judiciary and a reinstated chief justice (Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry). In case this is not done, God knows what will become of our country.
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed TNS: How do you see the situation arising immediately after the death of Benazir Bhutto? Ghulam Mustafa Khar: My
opinion is not different from that of all other Pakistanis who love their Let me warn those who are trying to hide the truth that this sacrifice will not go in vain. People of Pakistan are taking it as part of the bigger conspiracy that led to the killing of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Mir Murtaza Bhutto, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, Balach Marri and those decimated in operations carried out in Swat, Balochistan and against inmates of Lal Masjid. I fear that if the situation is not controlled in time and power not transferred to the people in real terms, the cumulative effect of all the above-mentioned incidents can be devastating. TNS: You knew Benazir Bhutto since she was a teenager. How do you rate her as a politician and as a party leader? GMK: There are no doubts about her qualities as a great political leader who was popular in all parts of the province. She was someone who would learn from mistakes and past experiences. As every one knows, I criticised her when she agreed on assuming power in the presence of an army chief heading the state. I had criticised the political decision taken by her but had great respect for her as a person. Time proved that my criticism was correct. When Benazir Bhutto returned to country from exile and saw the deteriorating condition of the country with her own eyes she decided against her earlier decision and challenged President Musharraf and his supporters. I would simply say she was a great leader who spent her life for the masses and even sacrificed it for their cause. TNS: There are fears that Benazir Bhutto's assassination will lead to widening of the Sindhi-Punjabi divide. How do you think this threat can be averted? GMK: Yes, it's true that certain vested interests have started working in this direction. We heard these people say it's the third time in the history of Pakistan that Sindh is receiving coffin of a Sindhi prime minister coming from Punjab. These people who want to fan hatred among countrymen do not have the courage to enter this country. On the other hand, I would say both PPP and PML-N are political parties that have great love for their country and countrymen. The resolve they have shown to struggle together for restoration of democracy is worth commendation. The sensible remarks coming from Asif Ali Zardari about Punjabis dying with Mohtarama are also worth appreciating. But I would suggest that a lot more needs to be done to stop this federation from disintegrating into smaller units. I think the onus lies on these two parties to make people coming from all parts of the country a cohesive force. But at the same time, I would say the situation is so grave that every Pakistani will have to play his role in diffusing tension among his countrymen. TNS: What do you think will be the future course of Pakistani politics, especially in the absence of Benazir Bhutto? GMK: Though it is quite early to predict but I would say there will be little or no scope for confrontational politics in Pakistan. The political parties will have to join hands with each other, enter into reconciliatory agreements and struggle for the restoration of democracy and vesting of power with the masses. PPP and PML-N top leadership has realised the challenge and taken several positive steps but they will have to get rid of strong mafia within their ranks to achieve desired results. I even suggest that PML-Q be also invited to join this struggle as we cannot simply bar them for being loyal to President Musharraf. They must be asked to reset their priorities and simply that 'Tauba kaa darwaaza abhi bhi khula hai'.
By R Khan TNS: Analysts described Benazir as one of the few remaining symbols of federation in Pakistan. How would you comment? Haji Adeel: See the
federation has already been lacerated by the military generals. The 1973 Musharraf has forcibly occupied the office of president which is the biggest symbol of federation. Not only are all the decisions regarding provinces taken in Islamabad but by one individual. About People's party slain chairperson Benazir Bhutto we can say that she had faith in the federation, democracy and moderation. The manner she was assassinated has further endangered the federation. Long before this, efforts were made to squash National Awami Party (NAP), Baloch leaders were hanged and even today in Balochistan military operation is being carried out against the countrymen. Likewise, currently operations are being launched in Pakhoonkhwa. So the federation has been in persistent danger while the killing of Benazir would make matters worse. TNS: How can the federation be saved in the aftermath of Benazir's killing? HA: Until a proper democratic system is not established in Pakistan and the promises which were made to the federating units in the actual 1973 Constitution document -- of gradual control and ownership over their resources and curtailing the powers of the centre -- the threats to the federation would keep multiplying. TNS: Do you think the one-sided efforts by political forces could save or strengthen the federation? HA: See efforts are afoot by our party and other democratic forces to save the federation. However, you are right that they are one-sided endeavours. and not enough. TNS: But the sad demise of Benazir has also provided an opportunity for the political forces to rally on a common ground for a united cause. HA: Yes, but it is not the question of unity of political forces; they could come together but when the powers-that-be are not ready what could one do. For instance, they have got a pretext to delay the polls despite the fact that the aggrieved party showed its courageous readiness for elections. Delaying of elections is only to buy time for PML-Q to revive the clique, which had almost vanished after Benazir's killing. TNS: How would you comment on government's assertion that Baituallh Mehsud is behind Benazir's killing and its consequences? HA: First, the government does not have any evidence for it and less than 24 hours after Benazir's killing Baitullah was held responsible when even no investigations were carried out. Secondly, Baitullah has rejected the government claims and he had personally conveyed after the October 18 attack on Benazir that he was not responsible. We think government charging Baitullah for killing Benazir is an effort to divert the attention of Sindhis that some forces in the Punjab are responsible for Benazir's killing. So there is a conspiracy to pitch Sindhis against Pakhtoons especially in Karachi. TNS: How will this incident affect other progressive parties like yours in the Frontier especially in the context of both parties struggle against terrorism and extremism? HA: Loss of a leader like Benazir is definitely a blow to progressive forces. However, the ANP and the PPP have been fighting against extremism in their own ways. TNS: Don't you think that the time has come for a new social contract between federation and the provinces and social classes as elections may not cater to the complex and profound problems facing Pakistan? HA: I don't think the present rulers have the capacity to do so. Only a democratic set-up can be expected to do so.
-- Senior Deputy Chairman of Pashtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) Senator Abdul Rahim Khan Mandokhel By Ejaz Khan TNS: In a situation where the gulf among the federating units is widening, how do you see future of Pakistan? Abdul Rahim Khan Mandokhel:
If the country is put on the track of 'real' democracy, bringing in a The supremacy of the parliament should be recognised in addition to the empowerment to the Senate. This empowerment includes the power to endorse the appointment of Chief Justice of Pakistan, appointment of army chief as well as ambassadors. Then, there should be rule of law in the country which is based on equality of all the nations including Pashtoons, Balochs, Sindhi, Punjabi and Seraiki. TNS: What are the reasons behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and who do you think is behind it? ARKM: Pakistan today stands at a crossroads and the killing of Benazir Bhutto has proved that the extremism and terrorism is prevailing in the country. Now, the logical question is as to who used to sponsor these outfits in the past. One thing is sure that only a genuine democratic parliamentary federation can steer the country out of the present crisis. Unluckily, the polarisation between democratic parties and dictatorship is deepening and the death of Benazir Bhutto has further deepened them. TNS: Do you not think that the supremacy of the parliament is established by now? ARM: No. The democratic forces are struggling for restoration of real democracy in the country, independence of judiciary and an independent media. The parliament should not be responsible to the so-called National Security Council (NSC) nor do we need article 58 (2) b. Until the will of the people gets reflected through a system in a country which really shows the dominance of the people very reasonably, the country cannot expect to go ahead.
-- Dr Mehdi Hasan, Professor of Media Studies The already weakened federation of Pakistan has been affected negatively by the tragedy of Dec 27, as Benazir Bhutto was the only leader who enjoyed the support and influence in all the areas of Pakistan. Other leaders and parties that are in the field have a regional character rather than a national influence. "Having said that, I
believe the political parties and leaders should understand that their
slogans of "Pakistan is faced with religious extremism and militancy. I wonder why the mainstream political parties are shy of condemning this issue that has taken on huge dimensions. "Then, there is the problem of Pakistan's image in the community of the world which is damaged to the extent that the big powers are talking of taking action against terrorists in Pakistan themselves. This is a negative aspect of our sovereignty which has been damaged badly. "There is a need to evolve a consensus among all political parties about the issues of extremism and militancy and ways and means to eradicate this menace which does not seem to be happening in Pakistan. "The death of Benazir has also left behind a vacuum of leadership. At the moment, because of the way Benazir was removed from the scene, the supporters and workers of PP haven't realised the loss that they'll have to bear. This they will realise only after some time. "The decision to nominate Bilawal as the chairperson of the party was taken in the heat of the emotional moment. I don't think it's a correct political decision. The party should have adopted a democratic method of electing some senior (party) leader as its chairperson. --
Usman Ghafoor
-- Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, political and defence analyst Divisive and fragmentary tendencies have been strengthened by the recent developments -- that is, BB's assassination and the delay in elections. "I believe Pakistani
politics needs some healing touch which cannot come about purely by "The new year will, therefore, see more political confrontation and instability which will neither serve the interest of the government nor of the opposition. "Considering our previous track record, every time something unusual happens, it is always the elections that get postponed because the administration views them as an administrative headache. So, they want to avoid them as much as possible. And, the avoidance (of elections) is one of the major causes of the repeated political crises in Pakistan. "The latest decision may be justified purely on administrative grounds, it is dubious in political terms. -- UG
-- Dr Rasul Bukhsh Rais, Professor of Political Science and Head, Dept of Social Sciences, LUMS I have no doubt as to the
future of Pakistan. Our provinces and their people are well integrated. "What, however, needs to be understood is that ethnicity is not static; it spills over into provinces. In this context, the question that arises is, whether Asif Ali Zardari is a Sindhi or a Baloch? The answer is not simple, and neither can the issue of ethnicity be looked in a black-and-white context. "The present system of government is unnatural because it caters to the will of one person and not a country. It has to go. "Benazir Bhutto's death has mobilised the masses. The political situation now demands that the natural political process (fair and transparent elections) should go through. PPP and PML-N are in a position to lead a national uprising. If this does not happen, I only see chaos and disorder. It will be a society against Musharraf. -- Ali Sultan -- Prof Dr Sarfraz Khan, Area Study Centre, Peshawar University "To me, it seems that
everything has broken down; the fabric of society, every institution. "The anger, which the killing of Benazir Bhutto created, has released an energy which is destructive and creative at the same time. Pakistan People's Party, by doing whatever it has done until now, has tried to channelise this energy in a creative way. On the other hand, forces which are determined to curtail the democratic process -- anti-state and anti-people forces -- wittingly or unwittingly are gearing it towards the destructive path. "I can only wish that they resist from that and channelise it towards the path of democracy and restore some sense into this chequered and tortured land. "I think elections are very necessary to heal all the wounds. People should go to the polls. If there is a sympathy wave, it has every right to be there. Ballot can be a solution. We should give this torn society, where some people have grabbed all power, a shape -- in terms of elections, ballot, constitutionalism and courts." "But honestly, I am not very optimistic and feel that people at the helm are not going towards that path. The only way to make them realise is by reminding them of what happened soon after the killing of Benazir. It is not a good thing that ought to continue." "There is still hope among the people that federation can be saved if people come to power. There is also the sense that those who have been ruling until now have endangered the federation and they should go now. But, as I said earlier, I am not sure if that will save this federation. "Up till now, they have done everything minus the people of this country. In the past sixty years, the thought (that has dominated the power circles) has been that people have no role in running this country. This option has been exercised fully and has not brought good results ever. They should stop it now and start counting the people. Whatever ways are available for the expression of people should be respected. They should not be stopped (in whatever they decide), whether we like it or not. "Sitting in Peshawar we don't see any evidence of federation existing anywhere. There's Waziristan and Bajaur and Swat and private militias. People strongly believe that these private militias are encouraged by a certain group and they know it. They have no confusion in their minds (regarding the identity of this group). They are powerless but they know it. So, you have to redefine and revamp the federation to make it a genuine federation. For that, the first step is to respect the people's will, as soon as possible, and there should be no obstruction in this." -- Farah Zia 'Jungle rule prevails in jungle' -- Dr Syed Jaffar Ahmed, Prof of Politics at Pakistan Study Centre Karachi University Even before this there were
many uncertainties and certainly some fundamental contradictions. "Then there were cleavages in the federation, particularly in the context that throughout the Musharraf regime, government could not give the National Finance Commission Award. "Still there was a hope that if a powerful person like Benazir Bhutto comes to power, she may move towards realising a political consensus and create a federal bargain among the provinces which could, in the long run, lead us towards correcting the imbalance of forces. "Now that she is no more, it seems we are in a chaotic situation where the society seems without powerful individuals or leaders who could bring diverse interests together. On the other hand, we have a state apparatus and personnel who are totally devoid of legitimacy and unable to exercise any control on the society." "One hopes against all hopes that free and fair elections are held which only possibly could give us some space to move towards betterment of things. "As for the state forces, there has been no change in their attitude. The manner in which they the government has dealt with the assassination, the tone in which the spokesman of the ministry of interior spoke about the killing, the mechanical statement as if Benazir had died by accident, playing down of her death is shameful indeed. "As for our federation, it never was in a healthy state. There was no consensus among the provinces about the distribution of revenue. "The reaction, particularly in Sindh, is not just madness as is being projected in the media. We need to look at the sociology of events, particularly in Sindh. This is the accumulative anger and resentment that has come out. "In a society where power is the only notion that matters, where rulers and political elite exercise power, where no democratic norms are available, common people also start looking for times when they can exercise power. "The fascistic tendencies held by the state have bred the same attitude among the people. This is a country where someone throws the constitution in the dustbin for 40 days, does everything he wants to in those 40 days, admits that it is illegal and then restores the constitution after 40 days. How can you then expect the illiterate common man to abide by the constitution and maintain law and order? "He will exercise power whenever he gets a chance and in whatever sphere. He will loot and plunder and burn. He will not listen to the 'lectures' that this is all national property. "The question to be asked is that you never let them become one nation and now you expect them to respect national property. Only the rule of jungle will prevail in a jungle. -- FZ
The postponement of elections and the horrible tragedy of Benazir Bhutto's death might lead to the falling apart of PML-Q Contrary to common perception, PML-Q, Musharraf's allied party could be the main loser after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and subsequent postponement of the general elections. If fair and free elections are held in February and the establishment stays neutral in this period, the PML-Q is likely to lose its men in Punjab to the party led by Nawaz Sharif. The party has been running its election campaign for almost one year with public money at its disposal before the caretakers were installed last November. The abrupt announcement of the election date was meant to catch the other opposition parties off guard and to deny them adequate time to carry out their campaign. The polls' postponement for almost seven weeks have provided more time to other parties such as the PPP and the PML-N to reach out to the masses. The PML-Q had already suffered from the arrival of Nawaz Sharif with the blessings of the Saudi rulers. Earlier, it seemed that the Musharraf regime would not allow Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif to return to Pakistan before the elections. Nawaz Sharif was sent packing to Jeddah when he had tried to stage a comeback in October last. With the sacking of more than 50 judges of the superior courts, the chance of a favourable court verdict in support of the exiled leader was also not in sight. But rescued by the Saudi intervention, the Sharif family has drawn huge crowds in towns and cities of Punjab during the election drive which indicates his party stands a good chance of winning majority there. The PML-Q is facing defections of notable political families all over the Punjab -- Rai Mansab in Sheikhupura, Mazhar Qureshi in Sargodha and Shaukat Daud in Rahim Yar Khan being the latest examples. In the districts of south Punjab, the party has no sound candidates on a large number of seats. In urban areas of the southern Punjab, the PML-N and in rural areas local groupings, the PPP run strong. The horrendous murder of Benazir Bhutto has created a sympathy wave for the PPP all over the country, and keeping in view the history, the surge does not subside in a short period of time. Unless a miracle happens, it is unlikely that a delay of 40 days would alter the public mood significantly. Before Bhutto's assassination, the PML-Q was running its campaign on the slogan of development works carried out during the last five years of its government in the centre and Punjab in particular. The support of the caretaker administration, the police and the district governments was on its side. There were speculations that the PML-Q would receive 90 to 100 national seats out of 148 in Punjab and with the support of PML-Functional and the MQM may win 10-15 national seats out of 38 rural national seats in Sindh. After Nawaz Sharif's campaign, in Punjab the estimates were revised with a reduction of 15 to 20 national seats for the PML-Q. Dec 27 has changed the entire dynamics of elections in Sindh where the PPP is most likely to have a clean sweep barring urban areas. In Punjab, the PML-Q has changed its tactics and now using ethnic issues to raise support. PML-Q's former chief minister, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi has raised the issue of rioting against Punjabi settlers in Sindh as an election issue. He has set up a committee to project the displacement of Punjabi settlers from their homes to Punjab. If Elahi succeeds cashing in on this issue, the upcoming election would be the first election to be fought on Punjabi ethnicity. However, his planning may rebound because the slogan of Punjabi has small audience in Seraiki-speaking southern Punjab. In central Punjab, Nawaz Sharif is a formidable force with more credibility than his opponents. The Chaudhrys may find it hard to withstand his onslaught. Unless the hidden hands of the establishment come into action, the PML-Q's prospects of gaining any benefit from the delay in the general elections appear to be slim. Instead, the chances of it falling apart have risen ever than before. The party which was hoping for 90-100 seats from Punjab may now end up with 30-40 seats, that too if the present caretaker set-up remains in place.
|
|