The limits to growth

By Aftab Ahmad Khan

The debate on the limits to growth in the last three decades has been an eye opener and it has been accompanied by considerable refinement and sophistication of the notion of limits. When Malthus enunciated his ideas about human population eventually outstripping available food supply, he was essentially talking about limits. Since then several efforts have been made to estimate the major resources essential to the survival of human kind and the period for which they are likely to be available. Most of these forecasts went wrong because they were based on the technological constants of their time and did not take into account human ingenuity and possible scientific advances. The question remains relevant, however, and human kind must take care not to cross the bounds. It should continuously look for substitutes so that life sustenance system of the planet does not break down.

The limits to growth have been discussed mostly in the context of the earth’s capacity to sustain an optimum population given the quantum of food that can be produced and the natural resources available for energy needs and industrial utilisation. The problem essentially concerns the capacity to sustain and to yield, the two of which are linked. The earth’s resources are finite, and therefore there is a logical limit to the number of people it can support and to the length of time for which this support can extend. However, man has the capacity to manage the environment, to conserve it, to improve it, and to innovate within it, provided he is given a propitious setting, the right motivation and an efficient organisation with a positive operating culture. The environmentalists’ warning that pollution levels in air, water and ground are rapidly rising to dangerous levels is correct, but it is within man’s capability to ensure that they do not become a hazard to survival. Such a programme would require massive inputs and continuous monitoring, but it would still be manageable. A beginning has already been made and the results attained so far give every reason to hope that science and technology will be able to tackle the problems. Life styles, land use and industries can all be slowly modified to ensure that the environmental damage from them is minimal. New technologies can embody adequate safeguards.

The limits to food production as forecast – that it can go only so far and no further – again assume a technological and scientific constant. That these barriers can be crossed has been demonstrated adequately by the success of the Green Revolution. The new hybrid dwarf varieties of cereals are not only high yielding; they also resist diseases, pests and some other vagaries of nature. With the right mix of these improved varieties of seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and irrigation, surprisingly higher levels of production can be attained. This technology has already been put to use but its full potential still remains to be achieved in many countries of the developing world. Cloning may give some wonderful results in agriculture generally and in vegetable growing and horticulture particularly, in the years to come. The possibility of growing rich crops under water has already been demonstrated, although much work needs to be done before this can become economically viable. Here again, the constraints can be overcome.

Energy is another resource which is finite if only conventional sources are considered. Fossil fuels, in terms of their known reserves are not infinite, but fresh explorations are constantly identifying new sources. Cost efficient ways of utilising them are being found. If one is willing to pay the higher unit cost, the dangers of resource exhaustion are not immediate. The search is on for cleaner and less expensive substitutes. Solar energy is already beyond the stage of experimental use, and nuclear energy has been in use for several years. Both remain relatively expensive, but there are good prospects of their cost being reduced. Biomass has a tremendous potential. Wind and the tides might also become rich sources of energy. The future so far as energy availability is concerned is certainly not one without hope, because it will not be subject to the day’s technological constraints.

These projections should not, however lull us into a sense of false security. The present situation in grim and only Herculean effort can turn it into a positive and promising one. In many Third World countries the population has to be stabilised, food production increased, and cost efficient energy utilisation ensured. The key items in any agenda for the future, therefore, would be the conservation and efficient utilisation of resources, the preservation and enrichment of environmental quality and the replacement of conventional sources of energy by new sources that are economical and environmentally clean. The developed countries have to give as much attention to these problems as the developing ones. This is only one world and one environment. Since all depend on it, all must share in looking after it.

In the context of growth limits, it may be pertinent to point out that for most Third World countries; the high consumption style of the affluent industrialised countries is unattainable, at least in the foreseeable future. It is a mirage that these countries should not run about endlessly chasing. That would only result in frustration. What is needed is a non-emulative path of development which draws heavily on indigenous creativity and also partakes of those growth points of modern science and technology which can be viewed as the common heritage of man. Such a path would gradually do away with the tendency to depend on borrowed resources and would make the best possible use of local resources and indigenous capability. Of course local resources and capability would be continuously upgraded and enriched. In many sectors the technology to the adopted, adapted and innovated would be labour intensive, low in energy consumption and environmentally clean. Of necessity, the alternative design for living would be low in personal consumption and rich in social services.

In the final analysis, in the case of developing countries, there is an urgent need to attend to the inner limits of growth set by social structure, cultural norms, value attitude system, individual and collective motivations, work ethics and organisational efficiency. These involve such diverse cultural specificities that each society has to seek its own solution.