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analysis Newswatch narcotics The most
likely candidate issue Watered up
All,
despite warnings
Who is
the face behind the veil? The Lal
Masjid stand-off serves not only to temporarily divert attention from the
multiple crises that the government faces, but also allows for a total shift
in the mood and tenor of public debate By
Aasim Sajjad Akhtar Pakistan has been
headlining the hourly news bulletins of the world's biggest international
media networks for some months now. The discontent in Washington over the
Musharraf regime's half-heartedness in dealing with militants on the porous
Pak-Afghan border marked the beginning of Pakistan's resurgence in the
corporate media. Then the chief justice was dismissed, thereby setting off a
chain of events that has left the military government at its weakest
throughout its almost eight years in power. But the dramatic stand-off
between government forces and the mythical This is an astonishing turn
of events, and reflects just how much the corporate media -- both
international and within the country -- actually influences the public
discourse. But more than the media, it indicates the absolutely cynical logic
that guides the state's actions (or lack thereof). For six months, the Lal
Masjid situation has been festering, thousands of young people becoming more
and more convinced of the righteousness of their 'cause', with random
innocents being abducted and terrorised in the name of Islamic justice. It
has now become clear that a group of militants had been holed up inside the
two buildings, and had at their disposal a relatively wide array of quite
sophisticated weaponry. Why then was the situation
not dealt with at an early stage? If there was going to be an 'operation' of
the kind that was eventually initiated, the result of which has been the loss
of at least two dozen lives, then undertaking it earlier would surely have
saved many of those lives. But there are arguably even more important
questions to be asked. Most crucially, why was an operation of this nature
conducted at a time when millions of people in Balochistan and to a lesser
extent Sindh have been rendered homeless by a cyclone and torrential rains?
Why was this operation undertaken a day after the Supreme Court bench hearing
the case against the chief justice (CJ) called the government to order for
engaging in what is essentially blackmail? For the best part of four
months, the political culture in the country has been resuscitated by the CJ
issue. While still largely limited to lawyers and political activists, the
pro-democracy movement was renewing ordinary people's interest in politics,
not the politics of power, but the politics of change. And as has been proven
throughout our history, even the hint that people are thinking about the
politics of change is anathema to our rulers. Then the rains came, first in
Karachi, and subsequently throughout interior Sindh. The devastation had just
sunk in when the cyclone hit the Makran coast and forced hundreds of
thousands into involuntary migration. The anger within Balochistan at the
pathetic response of the government was palpable. The government's crisis
just seemed to be getting more and more acute. And then suddenly the Lal
Masjid situation erupted back into the political spotlight, as it has done on
numerous rather opportune occasions over the past few months. Only this time
it was to become a full fledged live TV war. Perhaps unsurprisingly the
government did not demand that private TV channels adopt a 'code of conduct'
(read: engage in self-censorship) as it had on the CJ issue. While cameras
have not been allowed to cover the actual exchange of fire as such, TV
stations have been covering the stand-off without interruption, and the
TV-watching public has been glued to the TV set anticipating the next
dramatic turn of events. It would be facile to
suggest that the whole Lal Masjid episode has been staged by the state, even
though it might have seemed so when Maulana Abdul Aziz attempted a farcical
'escape' in his burqa disguise. But the point is not to either dismiss the
whole episode as a conspiracy or consider it a truly epic battle between the
forces of good and evil. It is in fact the need of the hour to put into
perspective what is happening in the middle of the federal capital, and to
recognise that the stand-off serves not only to at least temporarily divert
attention from the multiple crises that the government faces but also allows
for a total shift in the mood and tenor of public debate. This is most evident in the
response of the upper-middle class to the stand-off. A large number of
well-educated and well-to-do urbanites -- particularly in Islamabad -- have
openly welcomed the government 'action' against Lal Masjid. Many of these
people have also been vocal supporters of the lawyer-led movement and have
otherwise been scathing in their denunciation of the fact that the military
regime has been desperate to cling onto power through any means possible. Yet
they have quite willingly disassociated the fact of unchecked militancy in
the middle of Islamabad with the functional logic of military dictatorship.
And lo and behold, Musharraf is once again the hero of the liberal elite. It is amazing although
perhaps not surprising that the analyses and sensibilities of our
intelligentsia are as short-sighted as they are. The fact that the forces of
the religious right have proliferated in Pakistan over the past three decades
is at least partially explained by the hypocrisy of the elite. It was this
same elite that supported the Zia regime in spite of itself, simply because
it was terrorised by the populist political idiom that was commonplace during
the Bhutto period. Now things have changed, and religious forces have become
public enemy number one. Let us not forget that the
Musharraf regime has ruled for almost eight years in large part because his
government has projected itself as committed to 'enlightened moderation' and
has reinforced the binary of 'secular modernism' vs. 'religious
obscurantism'. This discourse satisfied both the regime's imperial patrons
and the tiny but powerful domestic constituency that is the urbanised elite.
In recent times it appeared as if the latter was acknowledging its mistake in
accepting the highly superficial nature of this binary by joining in the
anti-dictatorship chorus. And there can be no doubt that the disaffection of
the upper middle-class was a major worry of the government. It only took a
military operation against Lal Masjid to right the ship. Pakistan remains at a
crossroads. The almighty battle between opposing social forces that has been
apparent over the past four months has far from abated. But unfortunately,
some amongst us believe the battle is between the state and the religious
right whereas actually it is between those committed to change and those
committed to status quo. The people who have lost their lives in the Lal
Masjid stand-off are the innocent victims of a deep and insidious political
game, which must be understood in all its complexity and exposed at its core
if we are to emerge from this conjuncture in our history a little further
along than where we were. There is no other option. (Related
feature on Dialogue Encore by Noreen Haider)
The
profound and the not-so-profound By Kaleem
Omar It is said that if you're
pushing 50, that's exercise enough. I feel I'm qualified to speak on the
subject since I stopped pushing 50 long ago. While this doesn't make me quite
as old as the hills (incidentally, just how old are the hills? I mean, does
anybody really know?). It does, I think, make me old enough to be dispensing
gratuitous advice to those younger than me -- a category that includes
practically everybody. Now, there's advice and
advice. Advice is further subdivided into principles, maxims, adages, rules,
summations, postulates, observations, laws, verities, mottos, truisms,
commentaries, assumptions, theories, slants and statements. Here, then,
without further ado, is a list of some profound principles for the profound
and the not-so-profound, culled from here and there, including the usual
unreliable sources. Greeniaus' Summation: To
say nothing often reflects a fine command over the English language. I am
putting this at the top of the list because a government spokesman said last
year that English is to be made compulsory in public schools from class one
onwards. This announcement will no doubt have caused a certain amount of
heartburn in some quarters, but there it is. Greeniaus' Second
Summation: I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous. This summation reminds
me of the story about the Palestinian who went to London for talks with the
British Foreign Office. After about a week, the Palestinian declared one day
that he wasn't going to talk anymore unless the British side produced a
one-armed negotiator. "Why a one-armed negotiator?" inquired the
bewildered British. "Because," replied the Palestinian, "I'm
fed up of sitting here day after day listening to you guys saying: on the one
hand but, then, on the other..." Hutchinson's 'Old Faithful'
Aphorism: Things are more like they are now than they have ever been before.
This links back to that other old adage: The more things change, the more
they stay the same. It is possible, of course, to read both too much and too
little into this aphorism. Those reading too much into it are likely to say,
"This is a political statement and a criticism of the status quo."
Those reading too little into it will say, "Anytime things appear to be
going better -- you have overlooked something." Bye's First Law Of Model
Railroading: Any time you wish to demonstrate something, the number of faults
is proportional to the number of viewers. This is another way of saying that
when you come flailing wildly off that ski slope and land in a heap with your
skis flying one way you and you the other, there are likely to be hundreds of
people watching. But when you execute a perfect run down the slope, the only
person likely to be watching your triumph is an aged aunt with weak eyesight.
Another Old Chestnut: The
only perfect science is hindsight. That is why it is said that trying to
predict the future is a mug's game. Predicting the past is a much safer bet.
At least that way you're only likely to be wrong 99 per cent of the time, as
opposed to being wrong 100 per cent of the time. I say this because even the
past keeps changing in Pakistan, depending upon who is writing the history
books and which government happens to be in office. The First Law Of
Mathematics: The answer has to look right. Mathematical boffins at the
Ministry of Finance know this law backwards. That's why, when dealing with
such things as projected revenue in the federal budget, they are able to add
2 and 2 and come up with 22 -- and get away with it, too. It's an answer that
looks right, even if it isn't. On the expenditure side, however, two plus two
tends to equal 220, or even 2,200. Take the Bolan Medical College in Quetta.
When construction on the project began in the early 1970s, its cost was
estimated at Rs 70 million. By the time it was completed in the mid 1980s, it
had ended up costing over Rs 700 million. Schwab's Commentary On
Travel: You can never really get away -- you can only take yourself somewhere
else. This commentary also applies to immigration. You chuck up everything
and migrate to Wahoo, Nebraska, in order to get away from it all, only to
discover that hundreds of your neighbours from Bhai Pheroo or wherever have
all had the same idea. Peter's Theorem:
Incompetence plus incompetence equals incompetence. It's a bit like the story
about a man who introduced a friend of his to other guests at a dinner party
thus: "Meet my friend, the well-known amateur brain surgeon." Whitehead's Rule: Seek
simplicity, and distrust it. The London Economist reported a few months ago
that the US government has given US $ 100 million to a group of American
scientists to do research on simplicity, with the aim of determining whether
simplicity isn't complex after all. By the same token, the American
government should give another US $ 100 million for research aimed at
determining whether complexity isn't simple. The late French President
Charles de Gaulle was right when he said back in the early 1960s: "The
trouble with the Americans is that they bring to the complex problems of the
world simple solutions and to the simple problems of the world complex
solutions." Quade's Law: In human
relations the easiest thing to achieve is a misunderstanding. Berkowitz's Postulate: A
clean desk gives a sense of relief and a plan for impending disaster. Nef's Law: There's a
solution to every problem; the only difficulty is finding it. On the other
hand, some people spend their lives looking for solutions to problems that
don't exist. Omar's Law: A bureaucratic
programme that doesn't work stands the best chance of being expanded. A
corollary to this law says: The more money spent on the feasibility study of
a government project, the more feasible the project tends to look. Kalabagh
Dam is a classic example of this principle. The drug trail To curb drug trafficking in the South Asian region, what is needed is a joint force to track millions of rupees remitted by drug traffickers every year By Huzaima Bukhari & Dr Ikramul Haq Declaring their resolve to
fight the war against narcotic and psychedelic substances, Pakistan and
India, during their two-day parleys in New Delhi (July 1-2, 2007), decided to
explore avenues, including information and intelligence sharing and mutual
legal assistance, to control the menace. This verbal resolve is welcome, but
mundane realities show that both the countries are helpless to counter the
onslaught of drug trade from Afghanistan. "We have to fight the war against narcotic drugs together. It is a common cause, has no borders and has no political considerations," Pakistan's Anti-Narcotics Force Director General, Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed told Indian Press on July 1, 2007 after a half-an-hour meeting with Home Minister Shivraj Patil. He was heading a five-member Pakistani delegation, which also held talks with his Indian counterpart and Director General of Narcotics Control Bureau Swaraj Puri on ways to control the spread of narcotic drugs like heroin and other psychedelic substances. Similar sentiments on the resolve to combat drug smuggling were expressed by senior officials of the Indian side. The agenda for the two-day parleys, being held as part of the ongoing composite dialogue process between the two countries, includes exchange of drafts of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two nations to devise ways to combat the menace of heroin and other narcotic drugs, majority of which emanates from Afghanistan. Among others present at the meeting with Patil were Puri, Pakistan's High Commissioner in India, Mr. Aziz Ahmed Khan and senior officials from both sides. An Indian delegation from
NCB had visited Pakistan in June this year for the first round of talks to
check smuggling of narcotic drugs in the region. Describing his meeting with Patil as "excellent", Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed, who arrived in New Delhi on June 29, 2007 for talks, voiced concern over record production of opium in Afghanistan -- more than 1,31,000 hectares this year, and said this time the crop was "unparalleled". Observing that opium from Afghanistan moves into Pakistan and Iran, the two other nations of the so-called opium-growing 'Golden Crescent', and also into India, he said Islamabad and New Delhi need to work on avenues like information and intelligence sharing, sting operations and mutual legal assistance to catch people involved in drug trafficking. "We have to see what the laws of each country allow. The effort is part of the international exercise to prevent drug smuggling," the Pakistan Anti-Narcotics Force Chief said. Maj. Gen. Nadeem said some of the narcotics find their way into Pakistan and India before being smuggled to other nations and it leads to people consuming such drugs and becoming addicts. Maintaining that production of opium in the 'Golden Triangle' area of South East Asia had gone down, he said one positive aspect in the war against drugs was that there has been a significant decline in smuggling of acetic anhydride, a chemical required for converting opium into heroin. This high-level meeting between Pakistani and Indian officials took place immediately after June 26 that marked the 'International Day against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking'. Both India and Pakistan must work towards creating a joint force to track millions of rupees remitted by drug traffickers every year from bank accounts maintained in various countries in fictitious names. This money in the hands of drug traffickers and arms dealers has made them invincible. According to James Petras, Professor of Sociology, Binghamton University, New York, there is a consensus among the US congressional investigators, former bankers and international banking experts that the US and the European banks launder between US $500 billion and one trillion of dirty money each year, half of which is laundered by the US banks alone. At the political level for both Pakistan and India, the threat from drug and arms trade is even more serious. The fundamentalist forces in both the countries are using drug trafficking and arms smuggling for financial gains. In Afghanistan. NATO is claimed to have been fighting a war to eradicate opium but it is shocking to learn that some cabinet ministers are deeply implicated in the drugs trade and could be diverting foreign aid into trafficking, the country's anti-narcotics minister recently revealed in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, when asked whether corruption linked to the £2.7 billion-a-year drugs trade went right up to the cabinet. The admission dismayed Western governments, which in 2006 pledged US $10.5 billion (£6 billion) in aid, including £505 million from Britain, to help to fight poverty, improve security and crack down on the drugs trade. In Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, there have been many instances when drug barons managed to become members of the Provincial and National Assemblies. The big money of the drug mafias should be attacked by strong money laundering laws and asset seizure legislation in all the three countries. At the moment all the three countries have weak law enforcement controls and suffer from lack of political will to bust drug gangs. In their political milieu drug money plays a significant role to finance costly electioneering process. This connection between drug-barons and political parties need thorough investigation. Drug dealers in all the three countries are closely connected and are involved in trafficking of narcotics, humans, prostitution and arms deals. Drug trafficking and other illegal activities have merged into 'organised crime', which is different from the normal criminal activities, as it involves corruption, money laundering and criminalisation of the political and legal institutions. Drug money in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India is used to bribe the entire administrative, political and legal institutions, from the local police to the magistrates. There have been instances wherein the government forces have either refused to undertake anti-narcotics raids or delayed the arrest of drug barons, or worse, conducted fake raids. There have also been instances in which magistrates have let the drug barons go free, and of elected representatives distributing poppy seeds to the cultivators. Organised crime has thus created a state within a state posing a serious threat to the State itself. In the international drug market, the share of Pak-Afghan-Indian mafias is around US $ 40-60 billion. According to rough estimates, US $700 billion to one trillion of international criminal proceeds are moved internationally and deposited into bank accounts annually. It is estimated that half of that money goes to the United States. The 'champions of democracy and freedom' do not mind such dirty money at home, but impose restrictions on others to stop all kinds of money laundering operations. Over a decade, between US $2.5 and five trillion criminal proceeds have been laundered by US banks and circulated in the US financial circuits. It does not include illegal transfers and capital flows from corrupt political leaders, or tax evasion by overseas businesses. The former private banker, Antonio Geraldi, in a testimony before the Senate sub-committee projects significant growth in the US bank laundering said, "The forecasters also predict the amounts laundered in trillions of dollars and growing disproportionately to legitimate funds." The US $500 billion of criminal and dirty money flowing into and through the major US banks far exceeds the net revenues of all the IT companies in the US, not to speak of their profits. John Reed, Chairman and co-CEO of Citigroup in his testimony before the Senate said: "I am John Reed, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of Citigroup. I appear today with Todd Thomson, who became the head of our Private Bank about 10 days ago, and Mark Musi, the head of the Private Bank's Compliance and Control Department. Unfortunately, Shaukat Aziz, who ran the Private Bank for the last two years and under whose leadership many of the improvements in our Private Bank's anti-money laundering programs took place, cannot participate in these hearings. Mr. Aziz would really have been the most appropriate witness today, given his experience and knowledge but as you know, he was called home to serve his country, Pakistan, as Minister of Finance. He left the Bank on October 29. He asked me to submit his statement for the record, and it is attached to my own all financial institutions... Whether banks, securities firms, or other types of financial intermediaries are potentially vulnerable to money laundering private banks are just one subset of the potentially vulnerable institutions. Our Private Bank, for example, is a very small part of Citigroup, accounting for about 2.5 per cent of Citigroup's business. Private banks in general are no more and no less vulnerable to abuse by the unscrupulous and the dishonest than the much larger parts of most financial institutions." These yearly inflows surpass all the net transfers by the major US oil producers, military industries and aero-plane manufacturers. The biggest US banks derive a high percentage of their banking profits from serving these criminal and dirty money accounts. The big US banks and key institutions sustain the US global power via their money laundering and managing of illegally obtained overseas funds. The first thing to note about the money-laundering business, whether criminal or corrupt, is that the most important banks in the USA carry it out. Secondly, the practices of bank officials involved in money laundering have the highest level of backing of the banking institutions -- these are not isolated cases by loose cannons. Today, all the big US banks have established multiple correspondent relationships throughout the world so that they may engage in international financial transactions for themselves and their clients in places where they do not have a physical presence. Many of the largest US and European banks located in the financial centres of the world serve as correspondents for thousands of other banks. Most of the offshore banks laundering billions for criminal clients have accounts in the US. All the big banks specialising in international fund transfer are called money centre banks, some of the biggest process up to US $ one trillion in wire transfers a day. For the billionaire criminals an important feature of correspondent relationships is that they provide access to international transfer systems -- that facilitate the rapid transfer of funds across international boundaries and within countries. The most recent estimates (2006) are that 60 offshore jurisdictions around the world licensed about 4,000 offshore banks that control approximately US $35 trillion in assets. This is the situation on ground [not considered at all in Indo-Pak talks in new Delhi] whereas we daily observe the official quarters in Afghanistan, Pakistan, USA and elsewhere making big claims about 'War against Drugs and Terrorism'. This is all eyewash. In reality all the financial institutions and state structure are subservient to these billionaires, the ruthless drug barons, who know how to move money from one part of the world to another, buy government functionaries, control the politicians, law enforcement officials, jihadi organisations, and get the profits they want from the drug trade -- a deal of death for many innocent people around the world. India and Pakistan will never be able to counter drug menace until or unless they make joint efforts to track and stop transfer of funds generated by Afghan drug barons across international boundaries and within the two countries through their local connections. At present both India and Pakistan lack expertise in this area. As regards Afghanistan, the government of Hamid Karzai has little or even no control just outside Kabul, what to talk of other areas of the country where the origins of drug trade are located. The Kabul regime of the day cannot be of any help to India and Pakistan in their war against drug trade. (The writers specialise in studying global narcotics economy and issues related to narco-terrorism)
A profile of Pratibha Patil who is tipped to become India's first woman president By Zia-ur-Rehman Presently the governor of the State of Rajasthan, Pratibha Patil, 72, is the newest in the string of leaders that have come out of virtually 'nowhere' to play a dominating role in Indian politics. Today, she is tipped to become India's first woman president. Patil surprised many when
she was chosen the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) -- Indian Left's pact --
candidate for the Presidential elections. But, this is not the first instance
where a leader who was nowhere in discussions has emerged to contest for the
top place in statedom. The indirect 12th presidential elections of India will
be held on July 19, 2007. Earlier, as the UPA (the ruling alliance in India) Chairperson Sonia Gandhi guards the key to the front's probable candidates, Shivraj Patil and Pranab Mukherjee -- both sitting cabinet ministers -- emerged as the front-runners for the candidature. Pranab Mukherjee was stated to be too critical at his current responsibility to stand for the Presidential elections. Other names which did the rounds in the UPA camp include Sushil Kumar Shinde and Karan Singh. However, the Left parties were opposed to the candidature of Shivaraj Patil, Sushil Kumar Shinde and Karan Singh. The leaders of the Left parties -- Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, Raja and A B Bardhan -- asked in the think tank meeting of UPA and the left if a woman candidate could be selected. Whereupon Dr Singh responded positively and named Pratibha Patil. The Left leaders seemed to have no clue about Patil's career and her talents. Eventually, on June 14, Pratibha Patil was announced by the UPA as its candidate for the election. On the other hand, the NDA which has accepted that the UPA has the majority in terms of electoral colleges, has stated that it would support Bhairon Singh Shekhawat in case he decides to contest as an independent candidate. On June 18, a set of parties in alliance neither with the UPA or the NDA, announced their support for a second term for the incumbent Abdul Kalam but political analysts opined that Kalam will be withdrawing from the presidential candidature in favour of Patil. Pratibha Devisingh Patil is an elderly politician of Indian Congress. A lawyer by training, she is currently the 16th Governor of Rajasthan and also the state's first woman governor. She is a former deputy chairperson of the upper house of Parliament, Rajya Sabha (1986-88). Earlier, from 1962 to 1985, Pratibha Patil was elected regularly to the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, representing several constituencies from Jalgaon District. From 1991-96, she was Member of Parliament from Amravati. It may be mentioned here that she has never lost an election that she had contested in. Born on December 19, 1934, in Jalgaon district of Maharashtra, Patil did her MA and went on to complete her LLB. In 1965, she married Devisingh Ramsingh Shekhawat, an educationist by profession. She also established an educational institute, named Vidya Bharati Shikshan Prasarak Mandal, which now boasts a chain of schools and colleges in Jalgaon and Mumbai with the help of her husband. She has also set up hostels for working women in New Delhi and Mumbai, an engineering college for rural youths in Jalgaon. She also founded and is the chairperson of a sugar factory in Jalgaon. Besides, she was involved in setting up an Industrial Training School for the blind in Jalgaon and ran a school for the poor children of Vimukta Jamatis and Nomadic Tribes. A social worker by profession, Patil is associated with various cultural, educational and social welfare organisations. In November 2004, eight years after she had completed her term in the 10th Lok Sabha, Pratibha Patil was recalled from political hibernation to become the first woman Governor of Rajasthan. She was the second politician from Maharashtra in this post, the first being Vasantdada Patil. With Pratibha Patil as Governor, Rajasthan had women in three significant positions of power in the state, including Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and Assembly Speaker Sumitra Singh. In April 2006, the Rajasthan Legislative Assembly passed the Rajasthan Freedom of Religion Bill 2006 (originally titled as 'Rajasthan Dharma Swatantrya Bill, 2006'). The objective of the bill was to control 'unlawful conversion from one religion to another by allurement or by fraudulent means or forcibly'. However, some Christian organisations opposed the bill alleging that it was an outcome of the rightist policies of Sangh Parivar. However, Pratibha Patil returned the bill unsigned, stating certain clauses in the Bill infringed on 'the fundamental rights such as freedom of speech and expression, freedom of conscience and freedom to profess, practice and propagate religion.' The Government of Rajasthan re-sent the bill to her in May 2006 noting that similar anti-conversion laws enacted by the Congress governments in Madhya Pradesh and Orissa over 40 years ago were upheld by the Supreme Court of India and that the head of the Constituent Assembly, Dr B R Ambedkar, while drafting Article 25 of the Constitution had said that it would be best to leave it to the state legislatures to make laws to regulate conversions. Pratibha then sent it to President Abdul Kalam for his opinion, and the bill is yet to be signed. She was a member of Maharashtra Assembly from 1962 to 1985 during which she was a minister holding portfolios like urban development and housing education, tourism, parliamentary affairs, public health and social welfare, cultural affairs, working her way up from the rank of deputy minister to Cabinet as also in Congress hierarchy. Patil's spell in the Parliament began in 1985 when she was elected to Rajya Sabha and became its deputy chairperson a little over a year later, a post which she held from November 18, 1986, to November 5, 1988. Between 1986 and 1988, she had also headed the Parliamentary Committee on Privileges. She was Maharashtra Congress chief from 1988 to 1990 before being elected to Lok Sabha from Amravati in 1991. Presently, she is the Governor of Rajasthan (since November 8, 2004). UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi is said to have described Patil's nomination as a "historic occasion" on the occasion of the 60th independence anniversary of India. Although the NDA parties are yet to voice their support for Pratibha Patil, barring extremely unexpected events, it is fairly certain that she will go on to become India's first woman president. (The writer is a research/political analyst based in Islamabad. Email: zia_red@hotmail.com) issue The
denuded princely state Not many
people know that the biggest blow to conservation of forests and resulting
deforestation in Swat came in the shape of ban on legitimate cutting of trees By
Raza Khan Swat, one of the most
picturesque hill resorts in Asia, has witnessed a marked depletion in its
forest covered area due to various factors. There forests particularly
include that of Malam Jabba, Manglawar, Minadam and Shah Dherai. The total
available land in Swat area is 1,410,281 acres of which 331, 347 acres is
agricultural land while the total forest covered area is 150, 905 acres. This
comes to 10.70 per cent of the total area. The forest covered area of Swat is
far more than the national average of just four per cent. There are four major types
of forests in Swat including subtropical broad leaved evergreen forests
(scrub forests), subtropical pin forests (Chir Pine), moist temperate forests
(kail, fir/spruce) and dry temperate forests (blue pine, deodar, fir/spruce). Actually, it is the
difference between the growth in forested area and demand for timber and
firewood in Swat which is responsible for rapid depletion in forest cover.
The timber/firewood demand from Swat is on average 129 million cubic feet per
annum (m. cft/annum). Whereas, the average annual growth is mere 50 cubic
feet per acre every year. It may also be mentioned that productivity is six
million cubic feet per acre besides 32.47 m. cft per acre from farm forestry.
So the total gap in supply and demand is 90 million cubic feet. Giving a brief historical
account of deforestation in Swat Javed Iqbal, Nazim Miandam Tehsil of Swat,
told TNS: "When Swat was a princely state before it merged into Pakistan
in 1969, no one could even cut a branch of a tree as Wali (ruler) Swat was a
Martinet. However, after Swat become part of Pakistan, illegal cutting of
trees started and forests were cut ruthlessly during Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's
era. During General Zia's period some restrictions were imposed on forest
cutting in Swat. Afterwards illegal cutting of forests peaked and ultimately
interim Prime Minister Moeen Qureshi clamped a ban on forest cutting.
However, since then illegal cutting of forests has increased manifold." Regarding the rate of
deforestation in Swat, Javed said that there cannot be an exact figure.
"According to safe estimates since 1993 of the total forested land at
least 20 per cent is no more under tree cover." Others think the percentage
of land that is denuded of forests is far higher. "I think the total
percentage of deforestation that Swat experienced is more than 70 per
cent," said Nasreen Ghaffar, Ranger Forest Officer in Swat. If this is
correct, it is definitely serious and its impact on the environment more than
obvious. Chairman Environmental
Protection Society, Abdul Wahab put the figure of deforestation in Swat at 60
per cent. "You can gauge the situation that in Eelum Valley there is not
even a single naturally grown tree left on the surrounding mountains.
Whereas, ten years back the Eelum mountains used to be thickly forested. This
type of deforestation cannot be carried out by the community or timber mafia
without taking the line department into confidence," Wahab said. Muhammad Yousaf, former
Manager Forest Development Corporation who is now working as a freelance
natural resource management (NRM) consultant said: "It is very difficult
to exactly tell the percentage of deforestation in Swat as it needs
scientific management survey." But, he said, by a well-thought out
conservation strategy, implemented with care and dedication, deforestation
can be prevented to a great extent in the areas away from population. In the
areas that fall near population, considerable deforestation has taken place,
he said. A number of factors have
been put forth as responsible for deforestation -- the foremost among them is
the issue of ownership and ban on cutting. "If the owner of the forested
land does not get any return from his land, he is least interested in taking
care of the forests. It is only the owner which can properly conserve forests
as he has a vested interest in doing so," Yousaf added. Aligned with the issue of
no returns from forest is the problem of unsettled tenure and ownership
disputes. Due to such disputes the opposing parties have tried to exploit the
forest resources to the hilt and there is minimal interest in efforts for
conservation of forests. The land tenure system is the source of conflict.
"The owners (which the government call concessionists) and the users,
who live in or near the forest, are always in conflict over the rights of the
forest resource. This dilemma was created when the forest act was extended to
Malakand Division in early 1970 and the forests were declared as protected
forests (in which the land
belongs to the state and the the concessionists get royalty in the
produce)," said Abdul Wahab of Environmental Protection Society. Unorganised population
growth and unplanned urbanisation has also taken a heavy toll on Swat
forests. Finding little space for increasing people, inhabitants of Swat
found it most suitable to root out trees to clear space for building
households. A rural area that gained
the distinction of becoming a famous tourist resort, more and more people
thronged Swat before 9/11 and ensuing Talibanisation there. Then there
emerged enormous needs for hotels, motels, restaurants and allied services.
Moreover, as tourism became an industry in Swat a number of people from
surrounding areas descended in search of employment. Besides, people from as
far away as Lahore and Karachi started buying lands in the cool confines of
Swat. This necessitated the development of urban civic amenities. But
urbanisation in Swat went on in a hotchpotch manner and there was no planning
in the same process. "Encroachments are a major reason behind depletion
in forest cover in Swat," said RFO Nasreen. Despite the 1990s boom in
tourism, Swat has stayed as a poverty-stricken area. Thus more and more
people have been preying upon forests to make both ends meet as well as meet
their energy requirements. Lack of awareness and ignorance is a natural
corollary of poverty. Thus local people due to prevalent illiteracy and
ignorance have inflicted irreparable damage on forests wealth. As most of Swat is still
deprived of natural gas for domestic and commercial use, firewood has been
the natural alternative for dwellers of Swat. In Swat, to date, the
biggest blow to the conservation of forests and resulting deforestation has
been the ban on legitimate cutting of trees. Due to the ban, owners have been
hard-pressed to sell their forests to smugglers. In fact, imposition of ban
on commercial cutting of forests since 1993 created a feeling of lack of
ownership among the local communities. This feeling precipitated multifold
increase in illegal forest cutting. As the ban registered a manifold rise in
timber prices, this also attracted people towards illegal cutting of forests
in Swat. "The ban on cutting of
forests only exists in papers. Compared to the legal cutting before the
imposition of ban, the illegal cutting since clamping of ban is stupendous.
Before the ban when people and communities had a sense of ownership and
belonging to forests, only mature and windfall forest timber was sold and
used. After ban all kinds of trees whether mature or immature have been
ruthlessly hacked. This led to excessive cutting and large-scale depletion in
forest cover in Swat," said Javed Iqbal. Obviously, due to
over-exploitation of forest resources, sustainability of forest cannot be
ensured. It is through striking a balance between harvesting and regenerative
capacity of forests as well as farm forestry that sustainability could be
achieved. "The most appropriate
way for conserving forests in Swat is to lift the ban from forest cutting and
to beef up forest related authorities and increase their capacity," said
Yousaf. (The
writer is a journalist/analyst, Email: razapkhan@yahoo.com) Politics
of deforestation Inconsistent government
policy regarding conservation is also responsible for the present state of
affairs. For instance, Forestry
Policy 1999, Forest Ordinance 2002, Joint Forest Management Rules 2004 and
Forest Development Fund have not catered to the specific situation in Swat.
Swat has always been a politically very vibrant area in terms of politics.
The sad aspect of this is that the political interference in the matters
related to forests has greatly impeded efforts to conserve forests. For
instance, some local politicians have either been part of the timber
smuggling mafia or have been backing the said mafia. A number of forest
officials are also said to be hand in glove with the timber illegal cutting
and smuggling mafias. It may be mentioned that smuggling of timber from Swat
is done besides roads through head loads and Swat River. Logs are rolled in
Swat River upstream and they automatically came down rolling bypassing forest
officials checkposts. Political interference has
also to a degree obstructed the working of courts assigned with cases of
forests offences. But, apart from that, the performance of these courts has
also been found to be lacking. According to locals as the
forest officials are mostly aged they lack the vim and zing to properly go
after smugglers and go around for inspection in the high mountains and
difficult terrain. It is said that since 1985, there has been hardly any
recruitment in the Forest Department. It needs injection of fresh blood. Stakeholders in forest
resources of Swat and experts are of the view that for sustainable forest
management in the areas various measures have to be adopted and made part of
an elaborate strategy. These measures include provision of alternate sources
of energy, wood substitution with other material, conflict resolution and
resource rights, participatory national resource management and above all
lifting of ban on harvesting. The forests of Swat need to
be conserved in order to maintain pristine beauty of the area, to protect the
tourism industry and thus sustainable livelihood of poor inhabitants. This is
the only way to secure the environment and the future of coming generations. Watered up Yes, climate changes economy. It seems that Pakistan's entire economy has become stricken with water-borne afflictions By Aziz Omar Our country has been
experiencing a love-hate relationship with the seasonal rains for quite some
years now. In the absence of rains, especially when they are delayed and it's
the onset of summer, the rivers and reservoirs dry up and soaring
temperatures cause general discomfort to human and beast alike. But on the
flipside, as the age-old saying goes, "When it rains it pours". And
what a pouring it has been this time around. It seems that Pakistan's entire
economy has become stricken with water-borne afflictions. As if already the anathema of inflation had not jacked up the prices of food items by around 10.2 per cent, along came the rain and pushed the envelope to dizzying heights. The most affected were the prices of tomatoes and red chillies, as apparently they are the first ones to go bad in instances of late delivery. The former went up a couple of hundred per cent in instances of shortage. So much was the persistent demand for the fruit cum vegetable that they were given the VVIP treatment. Instead of being carted on crate laden trucks halfway across the country, they were flown into the major cities. Come rain or shine, the sales of air conditioners and electricity in the summer months generators are bringing in a tidy profit for their retailers. As the hot weather rolls in, the heat build-up and dry spells cause an upsurge in the demand for these two machines. And what with the 'consumer-friendly' financing deals ready for the taking, the customer base has grown more than ever. The buying and usage trends of these two commodities are quite intimately linked. Lots of sun bodes well for A/C sales while no rains and the resultant power shortage boosts generators' demand. Although the monsoon rains do bring a temporary respite in both cases, the consequent humidity provokes cranking up the cooling. Hence, the electricity consumption in this case causes the grids to overload and it's back to scheduled power outages that fuel the market for private generators. The rains themselves end up becoming the culprits as poles and power lines topple over or sub-stations have their devices short-circuited. With the recent load-shedding conditions in Karachi, the residents have drummed up demand out of sheer desperation for around 40 per cent of the country's generator imports. The agriculture sector just can't decide whether the rains and subsequent deluges are friend or foe. Where the early arrival of monsoon has proved to be beneficial for the Kharif crops of sugar cane and rice, cotton seems to be literally in deep waters. The latter faces the same dilemma when it's time for it to be harvested. The Rabi crop of wheat, whose harvest of 23.5 million tons is claimed to be the highest in the country's history by the Pakistan Economic Survey, is faced with the most ironic of rain related circumstances. The wheat exporters had been virtually counting their proverbial chickens before letting them hatch (more on livestock related woes later). After considerable under-pricing and over-expecting, the wheat stocks are very much down in the dumps rather than travelling to new horizons. Due to a suspension of previously allowed export licenses, the bulk of the piled wheat has had more than its fair share of rainy showers. Nonetheless, whereas this was homegrown stuff, the two million tons of refined sugar imported last year have now become more like syrup. With the assumed short-supply now having turned into abundance, the only solution is to convert it all into ethanol to be used as bio-fuel. Besides the tragic loss of 240 or so reported lives across the country, livestock too has encountered a huge death toll caused by massive floods. Unlike the bittersweet scenario of their agricultural counterparts, the numbers of farm animals have all plunged drastically in the cyclone affected areas. In the Balochistan region which is the most affected, the animal population except for cattle has gone done by more than 50 per cent as compared to last year. stocks Buoyant stocks in unfavourable circumstances Stability in exchange rate is said to be the result of a strong buildup in foreign exchange reserves, large-scale merger, and acquisition in the banking, telecom and other sectors of economy By Shujauddin Qureshi Pakistani capital market continued to create fresh records in recent weeks, with its benchmark KSE-100 Index breaching the barriers to head towards the next nearest target of 14000 points, and market capitalisation surging all time high at Rs 4,000 billion. Even the prevailing
political and law and order situation in the country has not affected this
upward movement of the Pakistani bourses. Interestingly, serious conditions
like the legal battle between the country's judiciary and government, flood
and rains, devastation in Sindh and Balochistan, power crisis in Karachi and
other parts of the country, terrorism threats, and Lal Masjid incidents have
had a very little impact on the share market. Stock analysts and brokers are unanimous in their view that increased portfolio investment by foreign investors including overseas Pakistanis has fueled this market buoyancy in the recent months. Moreover, they say the positive expected results by many listed companies, particularly banks, have added to the market surge. According to banking sources, the foreign investment portfolio in the stock exchange ranges from 950 to 970 million dollars, which is unprecedented in the recent years. The stock analysts believe that stability in exchange rate is a result of a strong buildup in foreign exchange reserves, large-scale merger and acquisition in the banking, telecom and other sectors of the economy -- which has improved Pakistan's geo-political relationship with its neighbours and also pushed the market upward. The successful Global Deposit Receipt (GDR) offerings of the Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC) and MCB Bank, amounting to US$ 888 million and increase in Pakistan's coverage by large international brokerage firms and investment banks also attracted foreign investors' interest in Pakistan's stock market. Many important takeovers have taken place in Pakistan's corporate sector during the last fiscal year 2006-07. These include acquisition of Union Bank Ltd by Standard Chartered Bank, acquisition of Prime Commercial Bank Ltd by ABN AMRO, acquisition of PICIC Bank by Tamasek of Singapore, acquisition of Crescent Commercial Bank by SAMBA, acquisition of PakTel by China Mobile, acquisition of further stake in Lakson Tobacco by Philip Morris. There are many acquisition in the pipeline. Singapore Telecommunications, which is Southeast Asia's leading telecom group is in the process of buying a 30 per cent stake in Warid Telecom, Pakistan's third largest mobile operator, for $758 million. According to the capital market sources, it is encouraging that international brokerage houses are providing research coverage on Pakistan included, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, and UBS Lynch. "Local investors are encouraged to buy because of the heavy presence of foreign investors," said Imtiaz Gadar Head of Research at KASB Securities. He said that the overall economic fundamentals were favourable for Pakistan, and that the regional markets were also performing well. However, the independent economists and researchers are worried over the market situation as they say that except for few the overall economic indicators are not so favourable to trigger this buoyancy. They are of the view that the fundamentals of economy, the state of the nation or the strength of the companies listed, has a very little contribution in this bullish trend of Pakistan share market. They have reasons to worry as they say that the buoyancy is not because of macroeconomic performance as most of indicators except GDP growth are in negative side. The local and foreign speculators with surplus liquidity are causing this situation, as there is no genuine investment in the industry. Even the textile industry which covers over 60 per cent of the total export earnings of the country is in the worst ever crisis with hundreds of textile mills closing down all over the country. All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma), which represents the spinning sector, reported last month that 116 textile mills had been closed down in the country due to the prevailing crisis of textile. Despite the fact that the textile sector is enjoying a lot of incentives, the crisis in the sector is worsening with the passage of time. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in a report on May 10, indicated that the textile sector had received a record Rs 328 billion subsidised loans in the last 10 months. The economists believe that a group of powerful brokerage houses with support from foreign investors are manipulating the situation. Despite all these negative performances by the textile industry and other gloomy indicators, the stock market is booming because of market players. Even on Thursday last, the benchmark KSE-100 Index crossed 14000 mark. "This situation is, in fact, very confusing," says Dr Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, an independent economist and Chairman of Research Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance. Most of the economic indicators such as inflation rate, trade deficit, current account deficit, rate of national saving, expenditures on education and health as percentage of GDP, foreign exchange reserves needed to finance imports of the country for a number of weeks etc., are in negative side. Moreover, the exports are not rising despite various incentive packages, Dr Siddiqui added, talking to TNS. "This speculative buying is largely funded by banks, financial institutions, large brokerage houses, big individual investors who are misutilising the loans obtained for industrialisation." Most foreign investors, including a large number of overseas Pakistanis with foreign currency accounts abroad, are also contributing to this speculative trading, and they are the major beneficiary of the situation. "All are repatriating their profits abroad in stead of investing in industries in Pakistan," he opines. Commercial banks, which are showing windfall profits in their financial reports, are the major beneficiary of the situation as the value of their sponsored shares is tremendously increasing, and they are also earning profits during the day trading. The experts blame the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Securities Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) for not keeping an eye on the situation. "It is the time that the State Bank should monitor the banks' exposure on stock exchange transactions," Dr Siddiqui continues. He is also worried about the fate of small investors who have always suffered in the past due to sudden fluctuations in the market. He said that in case of sudden shock or at the sweet will of major stakeholders the main losers will be the small investors. Pakistani small investors had lost almost $13 billion in the 2005 KSE crash and no remedy was provided to them despite high level probes including a forensic investigation by a US firm. Similarly, the small investors lost billions of rupees in 2006 also, which the market reported fluctuation. But the brokers and researchers at brokerage houses are confident that the situation is quite different from what it was in the past. "The number of retail investors is very low compared to figures that came out in 2005," says Aftab Merchant, a trader at Escorts Investment Bank. He said that mostly the foreign investors and banks were involved in this buoyant situation. The international investors with huge surplus funds are always looking out for higher yields, so they mostly inject their funds in emerging markets like Pakistan's. Moreover, he said, the Pakistani market is performing well as compared to most regional markets. So, there is large influx for foreign portfolio. All, despite warnings There is a need to move from the traditional method of disaster response -- from relief and emergency management to risk management "Those who prepare in
advance, suffer less in emergencies," this was observed by Lt. General
Farooq Ahmad Khan, chairman National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) in
his official statement delivered in the plenary of Global Platform on
Disaster Risk Reduction held in Geneva on June 5, 2007. Ironically, it took
less than two weeks of this official assertion that pre-monsoon rain spell in
Karachi and NWFP and tropical cyclone along the coastal belt of Sindh and
Balochistan exposed the lowest level of preparedness against recurring
hazards in Pakistan. In Karachi, a number of reports suggested, drainage crisis, power failure, electrocution and collapse of power-operated billboards caused the death of more than 250 people. It is valid to ask that despite the timely warning by the Meteorological Department about torrential rains what was done at the institutional level to prepare at-risk areas and communities. Government spokespersons are always quick to shift the responsibility of destruction on the fury of nature without looking into the institutional commitment, capacity and performance of respective organs of governance. For instance, the case of casualties in Karachi are an obvious example of the failure of governance, town planning and services like water and sanitation marred with institutional neglect of the principles of public safety. And all this in the economic hub of the country. Pakistan Fisherfolk identified three most affected union councils in Karachi which include: UC-8 Gabo Pat of Keamari Town, UC Ibrahim Hyderi of Bin Qasim Town and UC Rehri of Bin Qasim Town. "Being located at the coast of Arabian Sea these villages are always at the risk of sea-water-intrusions," the PFF assessment report observed. "Due to rain-water pressure the small water storage reservoirs/dams have broken out and inundated the villages," the report added. "It can safely be argued that if the rainfall continues the sea will intrude into the settlement areas," the PPF officials warned. However, the early warning as a crucial element to reduce the disaster impact remain useless and sometimes proved to be counter-productive if the corresponding response mechanism is not in place. On May 18-21 in 1999, about eight years ago, a tropical cyclone named 02A caused heavy damages in south-eastern Sindh. The early warning for this cyclone was released by the Met department, but it was not heeded to by the local administration and they opted not to disseminate this warning because of panic and law and order situation likely to be created by the warning. Related to the recent tropical cyclone named Yemyin (and numbered as 03B) formed in Arabian Sea on June 22, 2007 at 1300 PST a weather advisory was issued. Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, the direct general meteorology services notified through this advisory that a strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) over India was likely to approach Sindh coastal area in the next 36-48 hours. The advisory further explained that under its influence widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall were likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi. The advisory also informed that sea conditions will be very rough to extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen were advised to stop fishing activities from the afternoon of June 24 till the afternoon of June 27. It also advised that irrigation authorities may reduce the canal discharges. Elaborating further the implications of deep depression on Balochistan the weather advisory maintained: "Later the Monsoon weather system may likely to move towards Balochistan coastal areas." "Under its influence widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall are also likely in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Gwadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Lasbella etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience flash floods," the advisory anticipated. "Sea conditions are also expected to be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from 25-28 June, 2007," the Met department advised. It is interesting to note that after four days of the early warning, the cyclonic rainfall occurred in the coastal areas of Sindh and the adjacent Balochistan on June 26. Authorities still had four long days to mobilise the corresponding response mechanism but it was not done. Later, the chief minister of Sindh, Arbab Ghulam Rahim was quoted by IRIN (Integrated Regional Information Networks) criticising the 'weather authorities' for failing to issue timely warnings about the storm. This clearly reflects the level of coordination among and between state organs responsible for the security and safety of its citizens in crisis situations. Intriguingly, the newly formed NDMA adds to the confusion. As stated in its official mandate the NDMA is supposed to be a nodal agency for the coordination and policy guidance on disaster management and preparedness in the country. However, the institutional capacity of this body is a matter of great concern as the whole authority has the total strength of 13 people out of which two are the personal staff of the chairman and two are UN-sponsored advisors on disaster risk reduction to the chairman. There is one disaster response advisor while two senior members and two co-opted members make the NDMA team. Rest is IT staff and responsible for other logistical issues. Apparently, there are no financial and logistical resources at the discretion of the NDMA which could be mobilised at the time of emergency. Against this backdrop, NDMA is confined to recycling the information it gathers through the Met department, provincial governments, newspapers and NGOs and presents it to the media in regularly held press briefings. It is pertinent to note that ISPR, provincial governments and other government agencies use the same track of 'public relationing' in this disaster scenario. There is, therefore, an overlapping of information dissemination, which led to contradictory statements and statistics leaving the information consumers in dilemma. The delay in relief provision caused distrust among surviving communities. In Turbat for instance, people took out processions to protest against the negligence and unresponsiveness of authorities to provide immediate relief in terms of rescue, shelter and food. According to some media reports tear gas and bullets were used to disperse the protestors. Some TV footage also showed that stinky food was distributed to hungry survivors which they threw back on the faces of distributors. District governments, which are supposed to first respond to such calamities, were found complaining that they were not provided with relief goods and resources to meet the needs of starving populations in their constituencies. A district nazim of affected area in Balochistan resigned in protest and this was criticised by Raziq Bugti, the spokesman of the Balochistan government. "It's not the time for resignations, rather to work together against the odds," Bugti said. There is a need to move from the traditional method of disaster response which is largely confined to relief and emergency management. Though NDMA has recognised, at least at the level of rhetoric, that there is a need of 'paradigm shift' -- a shift from emergency management to risk management. Yet it needs to understand that early warning does not bring fruits unless a befitting response regime is in place. Therefore, the principles of policy and practice need to be changed by integrating disaster risk reduction into mainstream development planning. Against this backdrop, NDMA, being a nodal agency needs to first build its own capacity before building the capacity of others. Mere press briefings and policy rhetoric might not serve the purpose. Email
amjad@rdpi.org
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militants of Lal Masjid has not only trumped the stories that preceded it in
terms of sheer sensationalism, but has also played out so as to apparently
restore an iota of the regime's lost credibility. 
