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Shelving the
dam
The next world
war will be fought on the issue of water. Big dams are much more than
simply machines to generate electricity and store water. They are
concrete, rock and earth expressions of the dominant ideology of the
technological age: icons of economic development and scientific progress
to match nuclear bombs and motor cars.
--
(Ex-President, World Bank)
By
Mehmood-Ul-Hassan Khan
Once again Kalabagh dam has become hot topic
in the country. It is again making headlines in our National Press.
Recently, the PPP led federal government decided to shelve the Kalabagh
dam project once and for all in the name of national reconciliation. Is
shelving of the dam the only available option for achieving national
reconciliation? Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said two
provinces are against its construction and its construction could endanger
the federation. The minister said funds allocated for its construction
would not lapse, but would be spent on other water and power projects. The
minister said the nation had wasted a lot of time debating construction of
the Kalabagh dam.
The Punjab government has opposed the shelving of the
multi-purpose Kalabagh Dam (KBD) on river Indus, and announced to take
this issue to the Council of Common Interest. Kalabagh dam, arguably, was
the most feasible and economical project for storage of the floodwater and
generation of cheap hydroelectric energy in the country. Instead of
dumping the KBD unilaterally, the Federal government should try to build a
consensus among the provinces to start its construction.
According to Wapda report (2008) per capita
availability of water in Pakistan has gone down to only 1,070 cubic
meters, from around 5,000 cubic meters in 1949-50, while the country has
lost water storage capacity equivalent to 5.13 MAF to silting at Tarbela,
Mangla and Chashma. We need to build both small and large dams to prevent
water wastage and to generate cheap hydel-power to meet this country's
fast growing energy deficit. Pakistan is witnessing food shortages, energy
load-shedding, unemployment, stagnation of agricultural and industrial
sectors, growth of poverty, inflation, budget deficit and widening trade
imbalance and further delay in the construction of the KBD would create
severe problems in the agriculture and the energy sectors, directly and in
industrial and manpower sectors indirectly.
According to a report of the World Bank, Pakistanís
energy consumption has more than tripled in the last 20 years. Still
Pakistan accounts for only 0.5 per cent of the total world energy
consumption. The energy deficit has reached to 3500 MW which would be 5000
MW by 2010. The construction of the KBD is must for the matching with
widening energy crisis and shelving of it would put us in great trouble.
(see tablle)
Water reservoirs or dams have multiplier effects on
the national economy. It can enhance the agriculture output. It can
enhance the overall industrial productivity. It can reduce the cost of
production and it can also generate new job opportunities.
The productivity of fresh water is also decreasing due
to losses in the movement of water from canal heads to croplands. So the
construction and importance of the KBD is obvious.
Sindh is genuinely concerned that the dam will divest
it of its share of the already insufficient irrigation water and
unfavourably impact the environment in the Indus delta. NWFP is worried
that vast areas of human habitation will come under water, as well as harm
the flora and fauna in the affected areas. Construction of the KBD has
become a point of debate over the years. It is interesting to note that
the KBD is strongly supported by people when they are on the right side of
the table. However, the same elements oppose it by tooth and nail when on
the other side. According to the technical report after the construction
of dam in the upper reaches, the share of Sindh would go up by 2.2 million
acres feet (MAF) and after two dams by 4.4 MAF. The construction of dams
will also help produce 15,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity.
Pakistan is in dire need of efficient water management
and supply of cheap electricity. Dams are the way to meet this need. But
KBD has become a bone of contention among the federal government and its
four federating units.
According to the one of the report of WAPDA, 2009 or
2010 Pakistan will have water short fall of over six million acre feet
which is equal to water stored in Mangla dam and this shortage will
continue to increase with every passing year and the biggest sufferer will
be the province of Sindh. Water is life and life is very precious to be
wasted in intra-provincial conflicts and controversies. The country needs
power generation mostly through water reservoirs so all possible efforts
should be made to start dam projects so the country is saved from
encountering the expected acute shortage of water in days to come.
It is estimated that the construction of KBD with an
approximate cost of 6.5-7.5 billion dollars would culminate in an average
annual economic benefit of Rs60 billion to the government. It would also
enable us to generate hydel power which is much cheaper than thermal and
nuclear.
It would be having a height of 915 feet above sea
level, with a storage capacity of 6.1 million Acre Feet (MAF), water would
be able to generate 2400 Mega Watt hydel-power which can be maximised up
to 3600 MW
Pakistan urgently needs to build more dams to boast
the country's water-storage capacity, citing the example of Turkey which
has built 40 dams on the Tigris River and other rivers over the last five
decades, while Pakistan, during the same period, has built only two.
Mangla dam on the River of Jhelum (completed in 1968) and Tarbela dam on
the River Indus (completed in 1974).
_____________________________
Year Water
shortage
2010 6
million acre-feet
2014 8
million acre-feet
2015 10
million acre-feet
Source: WAPDA
_____________________________
The KBD has become an absolute necessity for the
country and delaying or abandoning its construction would be an invitation
to a total disaster. Recently, the World Bank Vice President Praful C
Patel mat with the president and conveyed that KBD was highly beneficial
for economic stability of Pakistan. The World Bank official says that it
is an important that Pakistan should not politically shelve the dam
project.
It is estimated that the hydel-thermal mix of
generation should remain around 70:30 whereas currently it is working at a
damaging 35:65. This along with the constant rising prices of oil in the
international markets has forced the government to taken concrete steps
towards an effective alternative policy.
______________________________
Country
Above 50 Ft Above
200 Ft
China 253
59
Turkey 113
22
India 28
6
Iran 52
28
Japan 97
35
Pakistan
3
1
Source: Global energy forum
______________________________
Concluding remarks
The KBD is an ideal instrument/dam to match with the
increasing ratios of energy. It is technically the most advantageous since
water entering the dam would have less silt, with bigger life span. Cheap
and abundant power, enhanced water supply and flood control is guaranteed
after its construction. Its site continues to be most appropriate for a
mega dam, both in terms of water to irrigate millions of acres of land and
in providing cheap electricity to populous provinces of Punjab, Sindh and
NWFP. The life capacity of the dam is estimated at 6.1 MAF while water
availability stands at 90 MAF throughout the year. With fewer logistic
problems, it is expected to economically benefit the country to the tune
of Rs60 billion per year, apart from ensuring timely availability of water
to tail end users. So please reconsidering its construction at the
earliest and donít go for its shelving.
Controversy
The proposed construction of the Kalabagh Dam
triggered an extremely bitter controversy among the four provinces of
Pakistan viz, Punjab, Sindh, North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan.
The only province which is in favour of this dam, is Punjab which is
strongest among all the four provinces, and as usual the government is
mainly controlled by it. The other three provinces have expressed extreme
dissatisfaction so far as their provincial assemblies have passed
unanimous resolutions condemning the proposed dam. Hence, the project is
still under consideration.
The delay is also being caused by the fact that
according to international water distribution law, the tailender has a
legal and natural right on the availability of adequate water supply and
that is why no mega-construction or reservoir can be built without the
assent and endorsement of the tailender province i.e. Sindh, but in the
case where the tailender is not using water i.e. building a water
reservoir, a reservoir can be made upstream.
Impact assessments of the proposed dam have shown that
while it will provide storage and electricity, the dam will also have
adverse impacts on the environment, as can be expected from any large dam.
It will also displace a large number of people. While proponents point to
the benefits, the adverse factors have been played up by the opponents of
the dam. As a result, the dam has been stalled by claims and counterclaims
since 1984.
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