Battle lines drawn
The international community continues to underestimate the intensity of public opposition to Musharraf's rule
By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar
It now seems clear that the Musharraf regime has succeeded in achieving the immediate objectives for which martial law was imposed on November 3. A kangaroo court has validated the presidential election, setting the stage for Musharraf to remain president for another five years; an absurdly draconian ordinance legitimating emergency rule and eliminating the possibility of judicial accountability has been issued; and a shambolic election process has been initiated, which the mainstream parties appear unlikely to boycott.

The Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) can be studied both from functional and neo-functional theoretical perspectives, because its member countries have geographical contiguity as well as cultural and historical commonalities. At the same time, ECO member countries want to increase their level of economic, technical and cultural cooperation for ensuring sustainable development in the region.

Founded in 1985 by Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, the ECO aims at promoting economic, technical and cultural cooperation among the member countries. It is the successor organisation to Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD), which was functional from 1964 to 1979 and whose basic charter was the Treaty of Izmir, signed in 1977. The seven new members of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan joined the organisation on November 28, 1992, and since then this day is being observed as the ECO Day.

According to the Treaty of Izmir, the main objectives of the ECO are sustainable economic development of member countries; progressive removal of trade barriers and promotion of intra-regional trade; development of transport and communications infrastructure; effective utilisation of the agricultural and industrial potentials of the ECO region; regional cooperation for drug abuse control, ecological and environmental protection; and strengthening of historical and cultural ties among the peoples of the ECO region.

The key areas of cooperation of the ECO include: trade and investment, transport and telecommunications energy, agriculture, minerals, industry, tourism, human resources and sustainable development. Before coming to the potential and future prospects of the ECO, let us first discuss the organisation's achievements and the challenges faced by it.

Achievements

As far as the achievements of the ECO are concerned, since its expansion in 1992, the member countries have been working together to accelerate the pace of regional development through their common actions. Besides shared cultural and historic affinities, the ECO member countries are using their existing infrastructural and business links to further strengthen their determination to transfer their hopes and aspirations into a tangible reality. The priority sectors of their cooperation include: energy, trade, transportation, agriculture and drug control. They have signed 12 agreements to date. Some of the important ones include: the ECO Trade Agreement (ECOTA), the Transit Transport Framework Agreement, the Trade and Development Bank Agreement, the Protocol on Preferential Tariffs, etc.

This regional initiative has slow, but consistent, track record of success. In order to enhance regional economic cooperation, the Protocol on Preferential Tariffs was signed by the three original ECO member countries in May 1991. The signatories agreed to offer a 10 per cent preferential tariff reduction on selected commodities. The lists were drawn up and implementation began in May 1993. Furthermore, at the 1995 summit, the heads of state of the ECO member countries signed the ECO Transit Trade Agreement and the Agreement on the Simplification of Visa Procedures for the Businessmen of ECO Countries. Such trade facilitation measures are playing a significant role in promoting regional trade.

As we know, trade agreements have been one of the important tools for regional economic cooperation. In July 2003, the ECO member countries also concluded a trade agreement known as the ECOTA. The agreement is a major step towards realisation of the objective of removal of trade barriers and establishment of free trade area (FTA) in the ECO region by 2015. It is comprehensive in terms of commodity coverage to be realised over a period of eight years by 2015 and will reduce the tariff to a maximum of 15 per cent on 80 per cent of the goods. The ECOTA will also strengthen the process of economic reforms in the region's economies by having a more dynamic impact.

At the macroeconomic level, the different indicators of the ECO region are stable and show continuous progress (see Table 2). According to ECO Annual Economic Report 2007, "In most countries of the region, improved macroeconomic policies -- reflected in low inflation, trade liberalisation efforts, more flexible exchange rate regimes and lower fiscal deficits -- have reduced uncertainty and improved the overall investment environment. More microeconomic structural reforms, such as privatisation and regulatory reform initiatives, have also played a key role."

Challenges

Although there have been several achievements of the ECO since its revitalisation in 1992, the pace at which the organisation can hope to achieve its stated objectives is much slower than the targets set for the purpose. There are constraints on effective cooperation among the organisation's member countries, due to the pressures of divergent external powers with their own vested interests in the region.

After 9/11, the ECO region once again has become a playing field of world powers. The United States-led 'war on terror', the confrontation between Iran and the US, the recent wave of extremism in the NWFP, the Kashmir issue, the territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the internal conflict in Tajikistan are some of the causes that have promoted instability in the region; and have negative consequences for cooperation, understanding and economic growth.

Despite the fact that the ECO member countries have shown excellent growth in different sectors, their economies are facing serious challenges like external debt, poverty, inflation and trade deficit (see Table 1). The Human Development Index of the ECO region is also quite low in comparison with developed regions of the world. Actually, the region is faced with core development challenges -- for example, ensuring sustainable economic growth, macroeconomic balance and price stability -- that need to be overcome in order to achieve a better quality of life for a population of about 400 million.

Another challenge faced by the ECO member countries is the establishment of common regional institutions with international participation. Even within the European Union there are such institutions, like the European Investment Bank, but they have not had a major impact on regional integration. The main obstacles are disagreements over location, unwillingness to contribute toward costs and concern over loss of sovereignty.

The agreements within the ECO so far include the setting up of secretariat in Tehran, the Trade and Development Bank in Istanbul, and the Reinsurance Company in Pakistan. Richard Pomfret, while discussing the current status and future prospects of the ECO region, rightly said: "Such sharing of institutional locations is scarcely conducive to economic efficiency and is likely to arouse demands for common institutions to be based in the next largest ECO members." These are the challenges that need to be met through increased cooperation among the ECO members.

Potential

The ECO region has tremendous economic potential and, given its strategic location and cultural and historic affinities, it offers promising ground for fostering economic integration. This region has been blessed with variety of resources: oil, gas, coal, hydro-electricity, minerals as well as industry and agriculture. There is a vast untapped potential for development and proven ability to absorb new technology.

This ECO region has a population of about 400 million, which is 6.1 per cent of the world population, while its real gross domestic product (GDP) accounts for 6.2 per cent of the world total. The region is spread over an area of about eight million square kilometers, twice the size of the EU. At present, the member countries produce about eight per cent of world's crude oil and 9.2 per cent of natural gas. The share of the ECO countries in world trade is 1.7 per cent, though the region's trade potential is estimated at 10-12 per cent.

The most important scope for regional integration in the immediate future lies in the development of transit routes for the trade of the landlocked member countries of the ECO. Though the Central Asian Republics (CARs) also have main rail, road and pipeline links among themselves and with Russia and China, they are also establishing their transportation links with other ECO member countries. The example of road and rail link between Iran and Turkmenistan can be cited in this regard. Similarly, Uzbekistan has road connections to Afghanistan, which constitute the key link in overland transportation between the CARs and Pakistan. In the long run, these communication links will contribute a lot in the socio-economic development of the region.

Future prospects

According to ECO Annual Economic Report 2007, "The ECO region is emerging as one of the faster growing parts of Asia and the Pacific. Sound economic policies pursued by member states since 2002 have contributed to a robust growth in the region, which averaged 7.6 per cent during 2005." Double-digit growth in exports, higher domestic demand and increased foreign direct investment marked this steady upward trend. In most cases, broad-based growth was accompanied by low inflation. At the same time, there is ample scope for working towards fostering ties through greater economic cooperation among the members to mutual advantage for improving the region's economic and financial stability.

The economic cooperation among the ECO states should be based on 'comparative advantage'. For example Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are oil / gas producing and exporting countries, while Pakistan and Turkey are oil / gas importing countries. The CARs have significant potential for hydroelectric power. As electricity demand in Pakistan and Afghanistan is growing rapidly, the CARs can export the same to the two countries.

Likewise, the textile sector of Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan can benefit from Pakistan's experience. Similarly, Turkey has developed its automobile industry and Pakistan can benefit from its experience. Pakistan and Kazakhstan are the exporters of agricultural products, while Iran and Turkey are importers of these commodities. So, there is a lot of room for intra-industry trade among the member countries of the ECO.

The ECO, besides being a promising multi-sectoral regional grouping, also provided its landlocked member countries with an access to the outside world, and facilitated the transition of their political and economic systems into the global mainstream. Former secretary general of the ECO, Shamshad Ahmad Khan, pointed out that the one of the most important achievements of the organisation has been that it "served to revive the historical, cultural and emotional links among the peoples of our region who have been kept apart for decades through artificial barriers."

As far as the field of energy is concerned, four routes for oil and gas pipelines have been proposed in the region. These routes are expected to benefit not only the ECO member countries, but also to provide outlets to the Central Asian oil and gas to the outside world. The ECO region has prospects to become a major hub of energy supply, through intra-regional oil and gas pipelines.

The ECO region is capable of taking a quantum leap into a future of unlimited opportunities, a future of infinite hope. The most promising track for the ECO members is to continue their unilateral liberalisation, which is reinforced by improved transport links and trade facilitation. In addition, such cooperation could help to create a favourable environment for foreign investors in the region. As a regional body, the ECO could contribute to maintaining regional stability and allowing formulation of common negotiating positions, which would be important benefits for a culturally cohesive but economically fragmented region like the ECO.

Conclusion

The geo-political and economic credentials of this vast region are impeccable. The common past, and the challenges of the future, could give them the collective political will and the modus operandi to further their goals of regional integration. The ECO member countries should not only take full advantage of worldwide economic trends, but also develop their economic competitiveness in the world market, and harmonise and rationalise their own macro-economic structures.

The ECO should study the model of other regional economic organisations, such as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the EU, to understand its weaknesses. An important lesson from the ASEAN is that a regional organisation can be successful, even if it does not create a preferential trading area and common institutions. A major benefit to member countries of the ASEAN has come from having a forum in which to discuss regional issues and to draw up common negotiating positions with non-members. Especially when a regional organisation contains members with similar economies (as both the ECO and the ASEAN do), a common negotiating function can be helpful. For the ECO to become a coherent, effective and seamless organisation, it must create inter-dependencies and synergies, especially in the areas of energy, security, transportation linkages and trade promotion. Particularly the transportation linkages need to be enhanced to provide corridors for co-operation, people-to-people contacts, tourism, cultural exchanges and free flow of ideas.

Not for nothing is Ireland known as the Emerald Isle. It is one of the greenest places on earth, with lush green rolling meadows that seem at times, when the light is right, to glow like emeralds. Convivial company, of course, is an essential part of the Irish experience. As an Irish Tourist Board poster once put it, "Come to Dublin and do a slow crawl, make that a very slow crawl, through some of the friendliest watering holes in the world."

Since the early 1990s Ireland's economy has been booming, with billions of dollars a year in foreign investment and EU support funds pouring into the country. But there was a time when the Emerald Isle was known more for its leprechauns, legends and literature than for its tiger economy.

It is of that Ireland of myths and stories of which I speak, the Ireland of Molly Malone and her wheelbarrow, of Wolfe Tone and Charles Stewart Parnell, of Yeats and Maud Gonne, of rebellion and insurrection against the British, the mist-shrouded land where, during World War II, people used to say, "How can there be a world war on when Ireland's not in it?"

That's the Ireland that my late friend Sardar Yunis Khan and I often talked about when we used to foregather at his house in Karachi. A gentleman farmer from Rahim Yar Khan, and the son of a leading politician and landowner of the area, Yunis read geology at Trinity College, Dublin, in the early 1960s. After taking his degree, he went into business in Karachi, eventually becoming the Pakistan representative for a Canadian company prospecting for oil in Sindh.

Yunis travelled the world in connection with his business interests, but it was to the metaphoric Ireland of his youth that he kept returning. That's where he had spent several halcyon years as a university student and that, I suspect, was where his heart lay.

And it was that Ireland of yore -- the Ireland of Yeats' poetry -- that was usually the theme of our conversations, with the talk often going on late into the night. "Romantic Ireland's dead and gone. / It's with O'Leary in the grave," wrote Yeats, in one of his poems. When I once quoted these lines to Yunis, he remarked, "You know, KO, Yeats was right." His friends all called Yunis Khan YK, and he always called me KO.

It is now nearly ten years since YK died, but I recall our conversations as if they were yesterday. He was a wonderful friend, a generous host, and a man of wit and style. Like the Irish, he loved telling stories, regaling us with accounts of his Dublin days. And if there was an element of blarney in some of those tales, well, why not? After all, he was more than a little 'Irish' himself. Above all, though, he was a gentleman.

YK's wife, Lubna, the daughter of the well-known painter Mariam Saadullah, is the author of two plays, which were performed at the PACC in Karachi -- one in the early 1980s and the other in the early 1990s. Both were comedies much appreciated by audiences.

Although my own student days were spent in England, I know Ireland quite well from my reading and from visits to the place. Like my late friend Yunis, I, too, am a fan of all things Irish, especially their whimsical sense of humour and their literature -- a canon that includes some of the twentieth century's greatest poetry, fiction and drama.

William Butler Yeats, the century's greatest poet in English, was Irish. So was James Joyce, the century's greatest novelist, and George Bernard Shaw, the century's greatest dramatist, as well as many other leading literary figures.

Yeats (1865-1939) was born in Dublin, the son of a distinguished artist. He was educated in London, and then, when his family returned to Ireland, studied art for a three-year period beginning in 1864.

His first volume of verse, The Wanderings of Oisin, was published in 1889, and was followed by a series of prose works, published between 1889 and 1891. The Countess of Cathleen, a verse drama, appeared with other poems in 1892, and The Celtic Twilight, a collection of sketches and essays, in 1893.

Yeats was now established in the vanguard of the new Celtic movement and his position was confirmed in 1895 with his collected Poems. In 1899 he became interested in the establishment of an Irish theatre and his association with Lady Gregory led some years later to the founding of the Abbey Theatre in Dublin, where much of his dramatic work was produced.

In 1917, having previously proposed in vain to the Irish nationalist Maud Gonne, he married Hyde-Lees, and his new wife had a profound effect on his work. In 1922 Yeats became a member of the Irish Senate, in which he sat from 1922, when it was formed, until 1928. In 1923 he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature.

Maud Gonne, one of the great beauties of her day and a fiery speaker at anti-British rallies, was the love of Yeats' life. But his love remained unrequited and Maud Gonne ended up marrying someone else. Yeats' disappointment inspired some of his best poems. To students of Yeats' life and work, like me, Maud Gonne is a legendary figure of near mythic proportions.

Imagine my surprise, then, nay, indeed, my utter and total astonishment, when YK's and Lubna's daughter, Tahia, who, like her father before her, was at Trinity College, Dublin, casually told the assembled company one day at a dinner party at their house in Karachi in the early 1990s that her college roommate in Dublin was Maud Gonne's granddaughter and that she was thinking of inviting her over to Pakistan during the winter holidays.

Well, you could have bowled me over with a feather. I mean, to me, it was like somebody saying that her roommate at college was Robin Hood's granddaughter. Talk about shock and awe.

I was first introduced to Aruna Roy in September this year at a conference on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Goa, India. This simple sari- and chappal-clad woman, who spoke warmly about her visits to Lahore and critically about the various policies of Indian government in the warm-up session, was going to be the keynote speaker at the conference the next day. I told her how I first thought the name on the invite was Arundhati Roy and she replied she was very good friends with the other Roy.

Between then and the next morning, I heard a lot more about her, much of which was quite intriguing, to say the least. This woman had a secure job in the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) for seven years from 1968 to 1975, when she decided to call it quits. She resigned from the prestigious bureaucratic service to live among the poor people of a village. Yes, people told me, living in a village in the Rajasthan state, eating with people, collecting fuel with them and not just pretending to be living with them.

A socio-political activist is what Arunaji calls herself. She is a member of the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS) and not an 'executive director', though she helped set it up in 1990.

Her keynote address at the conference set just the right tone for the event by bringing in people to the centre of the discussion. She narrated how the whole debate of right to information first began and how they struggled for many years to get it passed as an act of the parliament. The Indian National Rural Employment Guarantee Act is another of Aruna Roy's major achievements.

Aruna Roy could not attend the rest of the conference, because it coincided with the second anniversary of the passage of Right to Information Act. There was no time for extensive discussion, but she did promise an email interview. Here are the excerpts:

The News on Sunday: Sitting in India, how do you view the current political situation in Pakistan? How would you compare the so-called 'emergency' in Pakistan to India's own experience of emergency in the 1970s?

Aruna Roy: The emergencies in India and Pakistan are both a blot on the democratic histories of the two nations. The only difference is that the Indian emergency declared in 1975 lasted only till 1977. This was the only period in which constitutional and democratic rights were suspended in this country, whereas in Pakistan a few democratic periods have fallen between longer periods of martial law.

The situation in Pakistan today is a matter of great concern to all those who want participatory democracy and peace in South Asia. We also feel that religious fundamentalism cannot be contained by imposing a martial law. The people have to define religious freedom as the means towards peace and equity. Such a process requires genuine freedom of expression and fora for democratic political debate. The progressive middle class also needs to play a pro-active role.

TNS: What is your idea of development or social change? Who do you think are the agents that can push it forward?

AR: Social change and development must be defined by and with people living on the fringes. That is why democracy is so important for the poor, marginalised and minorities in this country. The practice of democracy, however, is far from ideal. Therefore, people have to struggle to establish democratic participatory mores, while demanding that their issues be central to development policy. Social change will come only when there is genuine political education to use democracy to fight inequality in both tradition as well as in modern economic paradigms and inappropriate development policies.

TNS: What are the hurdles in the path of development for the people of India?

AR: The first and foremost question is who defines development? And if there is endorsement by those who govern, is it based on informed choices? Do benefits ever trickle down? Are the people on the fringes in a position to participate in the decision-making process? Does the concept of development include the issues of employment, hunger, health, and equal access to law and justice? Do women, dalits, minorities and children have equal rights? The lack of information at all levels renders it impossible even for so-called literate people to know what governments are doing. People have to learn how to ask questions and to demand answers from those who govern, from the panchayat to the Lok Sabha level.

TNS: How easy or difficult was it for you to leave a life of comfort and security and go to live among the poor in a village?

AR: At a wedding of a friend's son, I was the subject of a small discussion. One friend said: "Poor Aruna, she has lived without physical comfort." The perceptive response came from another friend, who said: "We have opted for physical comfort and have moral discomfort. She has opted for physical discomfort, but for moral and mental peace. I do not know who is better placed!" I have never had a moment's discomfort about leaving the IAS. And living with poor people is very secure!

TNS: You were instrumental in getting the Right to Information Act passed. How did it all come about?

AR: It began with poor peasants and workers, associated with the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS), asking to see labour lists and bills and vouchers in Central Rajasthan in 1994-1996. The issue of transparency became pivotal, because the truth lay in the records, or so the government claimed. The financial audit was wrong, because non-existent works were testified as being there! This was also because of the Official Secrets Act, which was inherited from the British. So the issue was defined by peasants and workers, and a campaign was launched. The state government had to respond and react. The chief minister of Rajasthan made a promise in the assembly to give photo copies of bills, vouchers and muster rolls in 1995. Demands for its compliance began the debate on political accountability. The law was drafted by the Press Council of India in 1996 for the National Campaign for People's right to Information and taken up by many groups. There were many drafts and the national law was passed by the government in 2005.

TNS: We in Pakistan think that the non-profit sector which we here know as civil society has had a role (maybe unconscious) in depoliticising the society. Why did you choose to keep your own struggle with the poor apolitical? Why couldn't you go join a political party and push for this kind of social change? Don't you think that giving people a voice is in essence a political agenda?

AR: I believe we are all political and even casting voting makes us a part of the political process in a democracy. All choices of struggle to fight inequality are basically to fight existing socio-political structures. My organisation is involved in people's politics and calls itself a political organisation without a party. We in India differentiate between electoral politics and the other, which we call people's politics, movement politics, or the non-party political process. The only distinction is that we do not contest elections.

The people's movements have pushed for and got important legislations, with two of which we were directly connected -- the Right to Information Law and the National Rural Employment Guarantee act. There are many more legislations -- like the Scheduled Tribes and Forest Dwellers (recognition of forest rights) Act, Domestic Violence Act, etc -- which are a direct result of such political campaigns.

TNS: How would assess the overall performance of non-profit sector in India?

AR: The MKSS is not a non-profit organisation. We do not receive any institutional financial support and exist only on contributions from people who believe in our work. All our campaigns are funded by people. We have 20 full-time workers, who all take the minimum agricultural wage -- Rs 73 per day -- as salary. As part of the people's movements, we have no day-to-day contact with the non-profits. But we do feel strongly (and with strong support from some of the non-profits,) that there must be complete transparency and accountability of this sector as well.

TNS: What was the exact moment that made you decide to do what you have been doing for over last 30 years?

AR: No bureaucracy has ever started or fostered basic change in the history of the world. I realised that to work for people's empowerment one had to be free of all hierarchy, and to work on the basis of one's own ethics and priorities. This decision was implicit in my childhood and took shape with happenings while in the IAS. There was no exact moment when this decision was made. It came gradually and surely, though!

TNS: Are you satisfied with what you have achieved in life?

AR: At least, I have no regrets about any of the choices I have made in life.

It now seems clear that the Musharraf regime has succeeded in achieving the immediate objectives for which martial law was imposed on November 3. A kangaroo court has validated the presidential election, setting the stage for Musharraf to remain president for another five years; an absurdly draconian ordinance legitimating emergency rule and eliminating the possibility of judicial accountability has been issued; and a shambolic election process has been initiated, which the mainstream parties appear unlikely to boycott.

What is also clear is that the so-called 'international community' has faithfully stood by the general, limiting censure to a handful of token statements imploring its ally in the 'war on terror' to restore the Constitution. The Commonwealth has suspended Pakistan's membership, but it is a well-known fact that this is but a symbolic act that will have virtually no bearing on the country's bilateral relations with most Commonwealth member countries.

Indeed it appears that the United States in particular has been playing ball with Musharraf throughout the whole post-emergency period. The Pentagon and American military officials have repeatedly insisted that the imposition of martial law will have absolutely no impact on military aid disbursements, while the White House has been keen to point to the supposed release of thousands of political prisoners over the past few days as evidence that Musharraf remains a dependable defender of democracy.

That the figures of released political prisoners are grossly exaggerated or that arrests continue to take place is predictably not noted in White House press statements. Similarly ordinances such as that banning political debate in educational institutions are also conveniently ignored. And presumably the beating of journalists does not pose a quandary for the beacons of freedom and democracy sitting in Washington.

As it turns out, the Bush administration and its lackeys in Britain and elsewhere continue to underestimate the intensity of public opposition to the Musharraf junta. It is true that ordinary Pakistanis are unlikely to boycott elections -- unless, of course, there is a comprehensive boycott by the mainstream political parties -- while the number of protestors on the streets also remains relatively limited. These factors, as well as Musharraf's pleading, explain the western world's persistence with a floundering six-year old project. However, regardless of if and how the regime stages elections, it is not likely to gain much respite.

At some stage sooner or later, Aitzaz Ahsan, Munir Malik, Ali Ahmed Kurd and others will be out of jail. At this point, major mobilisation of lawyers can be expected. They will settle for nothing less than reinstatement of judges who refused to take oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO), including Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Moreover, even if Musharraf were to be sidelined, the depth of resentment against the military as an institution is unprecedented. Election or no elections, the military's -- and America's -- quandary is far from over.

At this point it is crucial to consider what the Pakistani military actually offers the US in its so-called 'war on terror'. It is now clear that Maulana Fazlullah and gang have made major inroads into the Swat valley since November 3. In other words, the threat of terrorism that supposedly forced Musharraf to impose martial law has not abated and has instead intensified. This is despite the fact that the military has started high-intensity operations in the area.

Surely the time has come to ask not only what the intentions of the Pakistani military are, but also what game America is really playing in the 'war on terror'. At least since the Lal Masjid crisis, it has been clear that the military -- whether deliberately or because it is wracked by internal divides -- has been playing a double game vis-a-vis 'militants' in the country. On the one hand, the government claims to be stamping out 'extremism'; while, on the other hand, it clearly seems to be adding fuel to the fire. The fact that Maulana Fazlullah's illegal FM radio station continues to function testifies to this fact, particularly given that the government has proven to be very efficient in shutting down cable TV channels.

Meanwhile, it does not take a rocket scientist to recognise that the Bush administration has cultivated the 'terrorist threat' as a justification for a majority of its policies since coming to power in 2000. Indeed it is also a well-known fact that the biggest and most powerful pro-Republican lobby in the US is the munitions industry that thrives on the proliferation of armed conflict. Thus it is not an aberration when analysts talk of the neo-con plan to wage permanent war as part of the vision of the 'Project for a New American Century'.

As both the Pakistani and American establishments have learned, hyping the 'terrorist threat' and at times actually giving impetus to it is a highly dangerous game, because it is impossible to control the genie once it is out of its bottle. In any case, one is not suggesting that the protagonists of the 'war on terror' do not face very real challenges from those ideologically committed to social and political upheaval on the basis of one or the other millenarian vision.

But it is also true that imperial America and its stooges around the world are willingly playing a very cynical game as a means of reinforcing their already considerable power. Ultimately, of course, it is the people of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Palestine and the numerous other fronts of the 'war on terror' that suffer on account of these games; and in the calculation of the strategists sitting in Washington and Rawalpindi, people are little more than pawns that are expendable in the pursuit of a larger design.

In this part of the world, the Pakistani military has always proven to be a dependable ally of American imperialism and it continues to be so today. Washington -- and therefore by default the rest of the western world -- will continue to do business primarily with the General Headquarters (GHQ) and, in this calculus, Musharraf's person matters for very little.

But what is also true is that imperial America and the GHQ have periodically had to contend with a player that does not play by the rules of their game. This is the force of people, currently manifest in the form of lawyers, students and ordinary citizens that are on the streets. For the first time in 30 years, people are on the verge of throwing a spanner in the works of the imperial machine.

Unfortunately, as Musharraf has proven since November 3, ruling incumbents would sooner visit chaos on society than allow the force of people to become a yet bigger player. However, in a typically short-sighted fashion, Musharraf and his generals decided on martial law that has only exacerbated the crisis that they face. Imperial America's continued support to the GHQ after November 3 is yet another indicator that this battle will become even more intense with time. It is time to acknowledge that it is no longer possible to sit on the fence; that option, if it ever existed, no longer does. For those who have even a remote commitment to humanity, the choice is clear.

According to the recently announced schedule for the forthcoming general elections by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), to be held on January 8 next year for both the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies, political parties have been given even less than three weeks for campaign. This makes it probably the shortest election campaign in the history of the country. Importantly, the outgoing coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has already achieved an edge over the opposition by doling out billions of public money to favourites and running media campaigns.

It is said that not only the elections should be free and fair, but they also be seen as transparent. But in the case of the forthcoming general elections, this does not seem to be the case. After the imposition of 'emergency' on November 3, Pervez Musharraf-led government tried its best to avoid fixing the date for elections. It was only after US ambassador to Pakistan visited the ECP office and Washington strongly demanded that the elections schedule be announced that the government had to succumb. But still the opposition has very genuine doubts about the transparency of elections and whether it will be provided with a level playing field.

There are two main reasons -- the imposition of 'emergency' and the installation of a caretaker setup that is being seen as an extension of the previous government -- for political parties' reluctance to participate in the elections. While Nawaz Sharif and Qazi Hussain Ahmad have adopted a hard line, Benazir Bhutto and Maulana Fazlur Rehman have their own reservations regarding the electoral process.

Civil Society organisations also subscribe to opposition parties' perception. The National Democratic Institute (NDI), an American think tank that has been monitoring elections since 1988, has urged that for free and fair elections the government needs to contain political violence, produce an accurate voters' list, curtail intelligence agencies' interference in the electoral process, ensure the involvement of all political party leaders and protect the rights of women voters.

"The issue of an independent election commission becomes irrelevant when the Constitution is held in abeyance, fundamental rights are suspended and the judiciary is subjected to a new oath of allegiance under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)," an official of the Free and Fair Elections Network (FAFEN) -- a coalition of 30 leading civil society organisations that was established in 2006 to monitor the electoral process, educate voters, and advocate electoral and democratic reforms -- tells The News on Sunday.

It is ironic that the more civil society and political parties want the elections to be transparent, the more controversial they have been made because of official manoeuvering. In fact, the 2008 general elections became controversial from the very beginning. First of all, the names of over 20 million eligible voters were missing from the electoral rolls. After the Supreme Court (SC) intervened, the ECP announced on October 30 that the computerised electoral rolls would be placed on the commission's website. It further said, as per the SC decision the names of eligible voters who could not be registered earlier would be included in the computerised electoral rolls, validated during field work by the ECP's officials.

Similarly the election schedule has been announced, but the vacant positions in the ECP have not yet been filled. According to the law, in addition to the chief election commissioner (CEC), there are to be four sitting judges of provincial high courts as the commission's member. So far only two of these seats -- one each from Punjab and Balochistan -- have been filled, while the two remaining ones from Sindh and the NWFP are still vacant.

CEC Justice (r) Qazi Farooq was appointed on the post in March 2006. Before assuming the position, he had served as a judge in the Peshawar High Court and the SC, from where he retired in December 2003. The 2002 general elections were conducted with Justice (r) Irsahd Hasan Khan as the CEC, who was appointed apparently as a reward for endorsing General Musharraf's unconstitutional takeover in 1999.

Announcing the schedule, Qazi Farooq said polling for the 1,070 seats of national and provincial assemblies would be held on the same day -- January 8, 2008. The nomination papers are to be filed from November 21 to 26. The scrutiny of the papers will take place from November 27 to December 3. Appeals against acceptance or otherwise of the nomination papers may be filed by December 7 and decisions on such appeals will be taken by December 14. The nomination papers can be withdrawn by December 15 and the final list of candidates will be published on December 16.

The 1997 elections cost the national exchequer Rs 1.05 billion, while in 2002 this amount increased to Rs 1.45 billion. It is estimated that the forthcoming general elections will cost about two billion rupees. Interestingly, the election expense clause -- stipulating that a contestant for a National Assembly seat can incur expenditure not exceeding Rs 1.5 million and a contestant for a provincial assembly seat can incur expenditure not exceeding Rs 1 million -- was included in the draft code of conduct circulated among political parties, but it was deleted from the final version. It is true that the Representation of the People Act, 1976, has that clause, but as the law is not being put on the ECP's website it tends to create confusion about the money spending regulation.

The ECP's code of conduct does not enjoy the consensus of major political parties (barring those which were in the previous government), as most of them boycotted the meeting that was called to finalise it. The code also stipulates that after the announcement of the election schedule, the issuance of advertisements in the media at the cost of public exchequer and the misuse of official media during the electoral period for partisan coverage of political news and publicity shall be scrupulously avoided. This clause was violated blatantly by the PML-Q, as it carried out a full-fledged media campaign against twice former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

The ECP has also directed the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) to ensure fair and unbiased coverage of election activities of various political parties, by regularly monitoring the coverage of these activities by private channels as well as the state-owned Pakistan Television (PTV). The fact remains that PEMRA does not have the mandate to regulate private channels, while the PTV is outside its purview. On a positive note, on November 16, the CEC took notice of two anti-Benazir advertisements in the media, but this step also seems to be cosmetic in nature.

After Independence, the first direct elections held in Pakistan were for the provincial assemblies: Punjab (March 10-20, 1951); the NWFP (December 8, 1951); Sindh (May 1953); and East Pakistan (April 1954). All these elections were massively rigged, prompting Electoral Reforms Commission to observe that they were not held in a free and fair manner. Major irregularities practiced in those and in all subsequent elections included: flawed process of voter registration, intimidation / kidnapping of polling agents, multiple vote casting, last-minute change of polling stations, ballot-stuffing and fraud during the counting phase.

In October 1958, General Ayub Khan imposed the Martial Law and introduced indirect elections in the form of Basic Democracy (BD) system. The first BD elections were held in late December 1959 and early 1960. Initially, the number of BD members was 80,000, but later it was increased to 120,000. In March 1962, Ayub Khan announced a constitution, banned political parties and held elections for the National Assembly, with BD members constituting the electoral college. In October-November 1964, next elections were held to elect BD members and political parties were allowed to contest this time. The elected BD members formed the electoral college for the presidential election in January 1965, which Ayub Khan won against Fatima Jinnah through manipulation, coercion and pressure tactics.

On March 21, 1965, once again indirect elections to the National Assembly were held, but on party-basis this time. In March 1969, following an agitation, Ayub Khan resigned and General Yahya Khan imposed the Martial Law. Elections to the National Assembly and provincial assemblies were held on party-basis the following year, with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) emerging as a clear winner in West Pakistan and the Awami League in East Pakistan. However, Yahya Khan refused to transfer power to the Awami League -- the single largest party in the National Assembly.

After dismemberment of the country's eastern wing, the PPP's Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power. He ruled the country, first as chief martial law administrator and then as elected prime minister under the 1973 Constitution, till general elections to the National Assembly and provincial assemblies were held on March 7 and 10, 1977, respectively. Of the 173 National Assembly seats, the PPP won 136. However, the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) -- a grouping of nine opposition parties -- levelled serious allegations of rigging and boycotted the elections for provincial assemblies. After the agitation that followed, General Ziaul Haq imposed the Martial Law on July 5, 1977.

Following non-party elections in February 1985, which were boycotted by most political parties, Muhammad Khan Junejo was elected as prime minister. On May 29, 1988, Ziaul Haq dismissed Junejo's government, as well as both the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies. The next general elections were held on party basis, on November 16, 1988, for the National Assembly and on November 19, 1998, for the four provincial assemblies. The PPP won 93 of the 207 National Assembly seats and its head Benazir Bhutto took oath as the country's prime minister on December 12, 1998. On August 6, 1990, the then president Ghulam Ishaq Khan dismissed Benazir Bhutto's government, as well as the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies.

The next general elections to the National Assembly were held on October 24, 1990. The Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) -- an establishment-supported alliance of right-wing parties -- won 105 seats, while the PPP claiming massive rigging in the elections could manage only 45. Former Punjab chief minister Mian Nawaz Sharif took oath as the country's prime minister. On April 18, 1993, Ishaq Khan dismissed Nawaz Sharif's government, as well as the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies. Though the Supreme Court of Pakistan restored Nawaz Sharif's government, the ensuing power struggle led to the resignation of both the president and the prime minister on July 18, 1993.

On October 6 and 9, 1993, general elections were held to the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies, respectively. The PPP emerged as the single largest group in the National Assembly with 86 seats, while its major opponent -- the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) -- won 73 seats. Banking on the support of allies, Benazir Bhutto became prime minister for the second time on October 17, 1993. On November 5, 1996, the then president Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari dismissed Benazir Bhutto's government on alleged charges of corruption. He also dismissed the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies.

On February 3, 1997, general elections were held simultaneously for the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies. In one of the most widely rigged elections in Pakistan's history, the PML-N won 135 seats in the National Assembly while the PPP -- once again at the receiving end of things -- could manage only 18. Nawaz Sharif became prime minister for the second time and ruled the country till General Pervez Musharraf overthrew his government in a coup d'etat on October 12, 1999.

The next general elections were held in 2002, though twice former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were barred from taking part in the contest. Later, under Pervez Musharraf's patronage, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) -- a king's party constituted by merging various factions of the PML except that of Nawaz Sharif -- formed coalition government in the Centre, majority government in Punjab, and coalition governments in Sindh and Balochistan.

On November 3, 2007, wrongly using his authority as the chief of the army staff (COAS), Pervez Musharraf declared a state of 'emergency' in the country, which was followed by a massive reshuffle in the judiciary; fresh oath by judges under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO); unprecedented curbs on the freedom of information and expression; changes in the Army Act to facilitate court martial of civilians; arrest of political leaders, lawyers and human right activists; and installation of a controversial caretaker government.

Such a loaded atmosphere can seriously impact the integrity of the forthcoming general elections due on January 8, 2008, especially considering the fact that the opposition is still undecided whether to take part in them or not. The situation does not offer a level playing field to all the contestants, as the opposition is lagging far behind in 'advantages' -- the caretaker governments in the Centre as well as the provinces have been appointed by Pervez Musharraf, who has openly campaigned for the PML-Q in the past. Massive use of state funds by the outgoing governments on publicising their 'achievements' makes the field even more uneven for the opposition. Further, there are apprehensions that the PML-Q dominated local governments would use their authority and influence to promote the cause of the king's party.

Rigged elections, however, are impregnated with serious consequences. These can destabilise the country, because resistance by the opposition and civil society may lead to violent confrontation. In such a situation, the following measures are essential for holding free, fair and transparent elections, which are imperative for improving the political situation and for strengthening parliamentary democracy in the country: 1) constitution of an independent and impartial election commission; 2) ensuring sovereignty of the judiciary; 3) immediate end to the state of 'emergency'; 4) comprehensive and uniform framework for procedurally-correct elections; 5) award of stern punishment to bureaucrats who try to influence elections and to people who harass the voters or polling agents of their opponents; 6) removal of all curbs on the mass media; 7) release of political prisoners; 8) lifting of ban on student unions; and 9) monitoring of elections by domestic and international observers of good standing.

(The writer is an Islamabad-based freelance columnist.

E-mail: alauddinmasood@gmail.com)

The topical and absorbing book, written by two eminent journalists, explains why India has entered a new era of coalition politics, and analyses the consequences and implications of this relatively new phenomenon.

Transition from single party domination to multiparty configurations or coalitions, the authors argue, is neither temporary nor an aberration. Dismissing the notion of bi-polarity, and resting the debate on whether coalition governments are here to stay, the authors debate on whether coalitions are at best a necessary evil or are better than single-party governments.

Among other issues the authors dwell upon are: the quagmire of coalition politics and the fate of the leading political players -- a gradual revival in the fortunes of the Indian National Congress (INC) and the 'honeymoon' with the Left coming under cloud, the power struggle with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 'social engineering' and victory of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the state of Uttar Pradesh; the rise of the new dominant Left, the internal differences and the influence on the country's economic policies; political coalitions leading to better governance and greater federalism, and reduced incidence of corruption; the new politics of economic liberalisation and globalisation, together with the crucial issue of equitable growth; and the crucial question of whether coalitions can provide stable governments and under what circumstances.

Challenging many widely held views on the Indian political process, this book is a must read for anyone interested in contemporary Indian politics at the beginning of the 21st century. Paranjoy Guha Thakurta is an independent journalist and educationist. Shankar Raghuraman is senior editor of The Times of India, New Delhi.

The book brings together the practical insights and experiences of individuals and organisations working in diverse regions and contexts to combat 'crimes of honour'. The authors examine strategies of response to such manifestations of violence against women, focussing largely on 'honour killings', interference with the right to choice in marriage, and the related use and legal treatment of the defence of 'honour' and 'provocation' as a legal defence in Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and South Asia.

This timely book is distinctive in its approach and content, highlighting activist- and practice-orientated academic perspectives from both the South and the North.

Dr Lynn Welchman is senior lecturer in Islamic Law at the Law Department of the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, and co-director of the Centre of Islamic and Middle Eastern Laws' (CIMEL's) and the International Center for the Legal Protection of Human Rights' (INTERIGHTS') 'Crimes of Honour' Project. She was formerly director of the Centre of Islamic and Middle Eastern Law at the School of Oriental and African Studies. Prior to this, she worked with the Palestinian NGO human rights movement and has undertaken work for international human rights organisations.

Sara Hossain is a barrister practicing at the High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh and co-director of the CIMEL's / INTERIGHTS' 'Crimes of Honour' Project. She has been involved in a number of cases of abduction of British-Bangladeshi women by their parents for the purposes of forced marriage, and has written and spoken widely on this subject. From 1997 to 2003, she was legal officer for South Asia at INTERIGHTS, London.

The book makes a decisive break from the post-modernist theoretical framework that considers knowledge as local and situation-specific, restores the goal of construction of general knowledge to the social sciences. While recognising the uniqueness of all human personal experience from birth to death, it emphasises the universality of cultural organisation of human minds and societies. The newly-developed hybrid of psychology, sociology, anthropology, history -- cultural psychology -- is fitting ground to research how human beings are social in their deeply subjective worlds. In the substantively inter-disciplinary framework of cultural psychology, the focus on phenomena becomes central to the investigation. The key to human culture is in the construction of signs -- visual and verbal ñ and the regulation of human actions through hierarchies of signs.

Socially, human beings are semiotic actors -- their actions are mediated by signs as they explore the realms of life space. In terms of cognitive processes, human beings create new solutions to life's problems that cannot be based fully on life experiences nor derived from general social representations. The book focusses on the construction of semiotic methodology for the social sciences.

Empirical evidence from the world over brought into discussion in order to demonstrate the basic humanity that is present and expressed in many different forms. In short, this book presents a new look at the relationship between people and society, produces a semiotic theory of cultural psychology, and provides a dynamic treatment of culture in human lives. The writer, Jan Valsiner, is professor of psychology at the Department of Psychology, Clark University, USA.

According to the general perception, the revenue target fixed for fiscal year 2007-08 at Rs 1.025 trillion is ambitious. In reality, it is still on the lower side -- the potential of total tax collection in the country is not less than Rs 2.5 trillion. It is sheer lack of political will and incompetence on the part of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) -- which used to be Central Board of Revenue (CBR) till a few weeks ago -- that we have failed to collect the revenues where these are actually due. For the last many years, the government has been extorting money from the people who are not supposed to pay any taxes, and granting unprecedented concessions and exemptions to the rich. For tapping our actual potential, there is an urgent need to tax the rich, bring undocumented economy in the tax net and distribute the incidence of various taxes judiciously amongst all segments of the society.

The Government of Pakistan, anticipating higher growth in economy, fixed the revenue target for fiscal year 2007-08 at Rs 1.025 trillion -- an increase of 21 per cent over the collection of Rs 841.4 billion in fiscal year 2006-07. The government projected that the share of direct taxes in the total tax collection for fiscal year 2007-08 will be Rs 408 billion, or 23.6 per cent higher than the previous fiscal year. This target is simply irreconcilable with an earlier statement by the FBR chairperson, in which he had claimed that there was 45 per cent growth in direct taxes during fiscal year 2006-07.

In fact, the real potential of tax collection in the previous fiscal year was not less than Rs 1.5 trillion. However, the FBR failed to achieve even 60 per cent of this, as generous exemptions and concessions were granted to the wealthy segments of society. The cost of exemption under just one head -- capital gains on stock markets -- in fiscal year 2006-07 was Rs 112.45 billion, according to government's own admission on page 262 of Economic Survey 2006-07. Had this exemption not been granted, the total tax collection for fiscal year 2006-07 would have been Rs 953.85 billion. This exemption continues in this fiscal year too and will have a negative revenue impact of about Rs 250 billion.

The people of this country are accused of not paying income tax. The reality, however, is that even a small shopkeeper in a village (whose total income is much below the taxable limit of Rs 150,000) is paying as high a tax as Rs 720 per annum with electricity bill (as a commercial user). On the other hand, a rich absentee landlord of the same area having agricultural income of million of rupees is not paying even a single penny as income tax. Similarly, a person making millions in speculative transactions (shares and property) is enjoying tax exemption, while a widow pays Rs 6,000 per annum as tax on her meager income of Rs 60,000 from bank savings.

The levy of taxes on speculative transactions and withdrawal of exemptions can easily increase the country's annual tax collection to Rs 2.5-3 trillion. However, this requires a strong political will, which is completely lacking at present because those in power are safeguarding the interests of the rich only.

The unwillingness to tax the rich reflects the pathetic state of affairs vis-a-vis tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio from 1990-2000 to 2006-07, which is highlighted in the table. For example, the tax-to-GDP ratio of direct taxes is appallingly low. Moreover, it may be noted that in these official figures a huge amount of indirect taxes is shown as direct taxes. The actual direct taxes-to-GDP ratio for fiscal year 2006-07 -- after excluding presumptive taxes ñ was around 2.4 per cent, whereas officially it was projected as 3.02 per cent.

Presently, the 'high' tax collection by the FBR is based mainly on imports and exports, as well as extraordinary profits by banks (who claim that they have profit-sharing accounts yet deny due share to deposit holders!). Importers, contractors, retailers and even service providers are passing on their tax burden to consumers and clients, courtesy presumptive tax regime introduced in 1991-92 that has also widened manifold since then. This erratic taxation is at the expense of equity and the poor are the real victims of this fiscal highhandedness.

It is an established fact that despite resorting to all kinds of highhandedness, illogical policies and unjust withholding taxes, the FBR has failed to improve the tax-to-GDP ratio. The burden of a number of presumptive taxes levied under the Income Tax Ordinance, 1979, has been shifted from income-earners to consumers and clients. These presumptive taxes have not only distorted the whole tax system, destroyed economic growth, and made consumers and clients the ultimate sufferers, but have also failed to bridge the widening fiscal deficit. Of the total tax collection of Rs 841.4 billion by the FBR in fiscal year 2006-07, regressive taxes amounted to Rs 631 billion (after making adjustments for indirect taxes collected under the name of income tax). The revenue deficit, despite this record tax collection, was as high as Rs 200.5 billion, while the fiscal deficit touched the alarming figure of Rs 373.5 billion.

The rich who do not pay taxes are the real culprits. Exemptions and concessions provided in our existing tax laws -- the whole of Second Schedule in the Income Tax Ordinance, 1979; most of the items of Sixth Schedule of Sales Tax Act, 1990; and innumerable statutory regulatory orders (SROs) relating to customs and excise -- should be immediately done away with. There should be a level playing field for everyone. If the government removes all exemptions and concessions, brings big absentee landlords into the tax net, manages to get taxes from the influential, and succeeds in imposing general sales tax (GST) across the board (preferably at a low rate of three per cent at one single point), there will be a record annual tax collection of Rs 2.5-3 trillion. However, this goal can be achieved only if the government simultaneously tackles issues related to tax evasion and rampant corruption in the tax machinery.

Pakistan can easily generate at least Rs 2.5 trillion as tax revenue in fiscal year 2007-08 provided that tax-base is shifted from presumptive to real income; agricultural income tax on actual profit basis (presently it is an eye wash levied on acreage basis) is collected from absentee landlords; Section 111(4) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001, giving amnesty to tax evaders, is withdrawn; rate of sales tax is reduced to three per cent and it is levied across the board; provinces restore tax on gaining immovable property; and profits generated through speculative transactions in shares at stock exchanges are taxed and exemption given under the garb of capital gain are withdrawn. If genuine political will is shown, there is no reason why we cannot achieve double the target fixed for fiscal year 2007-08.

The progress on the much talked about Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) seems failing the world's poor while reaching its mid-term in October 2007, since the world leaders promised at a summit in 2000 that they would half the world population living in abject poverty by 2015.

The very credibility of The Millennium Development Goals: Progress in Asia and the Pacific 2007 report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to mark the October 17 as the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty is at stake, as the data used to show progress on the MDGs from most of the developing countries in Asia and Pacific dates back between 1999 and 2004 in most of the cases, while the progress was supposed to cover the period from 2000 to 2007.

Inter Press Service (IPS) quoted Raj Kumar, principal officer at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in Bangkok, as saying: "In many countries, the data provided at the national level is not reliable. The most comprehensive, comparable figures we have for the Asia-Pacific region are for 1999." The chief of ESCAP's Statistics Division, Pietro Gennari, while launching the report in early October 2007, also admitted that there were still many gaps in the MDGs database. Similarly Jean-Pierre Verbiest, ADB's country director for Thailand, says: "Social data in countries can be more difficult to collect when the mechanisms are not there."

The civil society organisations monitoring the MDGs have reacted sharply to the report. "We are not surprised by this admission about the lack of information. When they now say that the numbers and the data they have are problematic, it raises fundamental questions about the thesis on which they have gone about this MDG business. It also means that the very foundation is shaky as far as solving the problems and achieving the MDGs are concerned," says Anoop Sukumaran, a researcher at Focus on the Global South, a Bangkok-based think tank. It is intriguing to note that data collection and processing in various countries has been so shaky, especially considering that the UNDP itself has been at the forefront of building capacities of governments in this regard.

The MDGs campaign was launched by the UN with much fanfare and huge budget. An ESCAP report says that 100 million of the world's malnourished children are in Sub-Sahran Africa, followed by 80 million in South Asia. This situation in other sectors categorised under various MDGs is almost the same too. Serious doubts and concerns about the data quoted by the UNDP and the ADB speak volumes of the non-seriousness and lack of commitment on the part of national governments and international agencies, as well as those who do not bother to seriously look into the ground realities like the ever growing poverty.

The data in the report shows that under the Millennium Development Goal No 1, calling for eradication of extreme poverty and hunger by halving the number of the people living with an income of less than a dollar a day by 2015, only 17 per cent people in Pakistan lived below the poverty line in 2002. As we all know, this is an unrealistic portrayal of the situation and the actual figure is at least double of what has been shown.

In 1999, 13.5 per cent people in Pakistan were living below the poverty line, as quoted in the report. This figure increased to 17 per cent in 2002. By the mid-term, the percentage should have come down from 13.5 per cent, as pledged by our leaders, but the trend of first seven years shows a surge in poverty instead. This means that we have failed on this count -- instead of achieving the goal of halving the population living below the poverty line by 2015, we have witnessed more than 100 per cent increase in poverty by the mid-term.

Though Pakistan is far behind the schedule in achieving most of the eight MDGs, it has shown slightly better performance than other South Asian countries as far as the MDG-3, which calls for promoting gender equality and empowering women, is concerned. This has largely been because of the reservation of 21.3 per cent seats for women in assemblies. An analysis of the report entitled The Millennium Development Goals: Progress in Asia and the Pacific 2007 says that Bangladesh is second in the list with 14.8 per cent seats for women, India third with 8.3 per cent seats, Nepal fourth with 5.9 per cent seats and Sri Lanka fifth with 4.9 per cent seats, despite the fact that overall women participation in other sectors is pretty high in these countries.

The share of women in non-agriculture wage employment in Pakistan has increased from 6.6 per cent in 1990 to 9.7 per cent in 2005, though it is still behind other South Asian countries on this count. The ratio of female-to-male enrollment at primary, secondary and tertiary levels has also improved considerably in Pakistan.

As far as MDG-1, calling for eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, is concerned, Pakistan could not show considerable progress. In fact, as mentioned earlier, the number of people living below $1 per day has increased. In food terms, the situation has slightly improved with slight decrease in under weight children and undernourished population. As far as MDG-2, calling for achieving universal primary education, is concerned, Pakistan reached around 70 per cent primary enrollment. Pakistan's progress on the MDG-4, calling for reducing child mortality; the MDG-5, calling for improving maternal health; the MDG-6, calling for combatting HIV / AIDS, malaria and other diseases; and the MDG-7, calling for ensuring environmental sustainability, was satisfactory with slight changes in indicators.

The report says that Asia is "well on track and ahead of its peers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa to reduce extreme poverty by half, attain universal education and achieve gender parity in education by the target year of 2015." Against the broad regional trends, however, tuberculosis has been rising in the former Soviet republics of central Asia, while north and central Asia are "regressing" in the AIDS fight. While "many more children are surviving beyond their fifth birthday," the report gives a mixed review of child malnutrition. The progress has also been slow in providing safe drinking water and sanitation facilities.

The report also says many countries are "still losing forest cover at alarming rates," particularly the least developed countries of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. And while most countries can point to progress towards some goals, "none is on course to achieve all of them." The report cites pockets of growing disparities within each specific country -- even among over-achievers like China -- and calls for greater efforts to help groups that have been left behind.

Those facing the greatest obstacles are Asia's least-developed countries, some landlocked developing countries and small islands of the Pacific. If those countries are to attain their 2015 goals, it will mean 196 million more people lifted out of poverty, the report says. Similarly, some 23 million more children will escape hunger, close to one million of them will survive beyond their fifth birthday and four million more young people will get basic education, the report adds.

Representatives of state and private enterprises gather in San Francisco to find out what lies for them in efficient use of IT

By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

In the new world out there, our relationship with information and technology is changing fast. We are seeing the emergence of a whole generation of people who never experienced life without the Internet. Home computers have become as powerful as office computers. Besides, globalisation is introducing new competitors, new markets and new business models.

This changing landscape offers new opportunities and new threats to enterprises, and the need of the day is to bridge the gap between business and technology. While information technology (IT) focussed on agility and economy in the past, today the emphasis has to be on innovation -- something not possible without collective collaboration among different stakeholders.

Similarly, the state enterprises are also finding it hard to serve the interests of their ever-increasing populations and manage day-to-day affairs by employing traditional means. The solution for them also lies in the timely adoption of efficient and custom-made IT-backed systems.

In this backdrop and with these challenges in mind, no less than 43,000 participants -- including entrepreneurs, top executives, software developers, customers, representatives of states, media personnel and analysts from all over the globe -- gathered in San Francisco, USA, at Oracle OpenWorld 2007 in mid-November. The event -- that has become a regular annual affair -- provided the participants with an opportunity to share ideas, exchange knowledge, and learn from both products and user peers alike. The objective, according to the organisers, was to promote interaction that encourages product innovation and provides users a forum for sharing first-hand best practices in their specific fields.

The keynote speakers including Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, the representatives of leading IT companies like AMD, Dell, Sun Microsystem, etc. Most of the participants discussed as to how the software technology will evolve in the next few years. How people will build IT applications in the future, what their architecture will look like, what types of skill sets people will need and what standards are going to be met were some of the other important topics discussed during the event.

It was encouraging to note that, though thin, there was significant representation from Pakistan as well. At a time when e-government initiatives launched by the federal and provincial governments in Pakistan appear no more than an eyewash, and limited to hosting of mostly outdated and non-functional websites, showcasing of a couple of success stories from this part of the world came as a pleasant surprise for many.

Representatives of the Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) and the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) were seen sharing how they were able to overcome all types of constraints and bottlenecks on their way to automation and provision of enhanced customer services with the help of IT-backed solutions. The SSGC's representatives explained as to how the company can now use digitised maps and drawings, as well as its Global Imaging System (GIS), to answer customer queries within no time. How the SSGC got its workforce trained by Oracle experts and how it overcame billing complaints were some of the other experiences shared with inquisitive participants.

Full-fledged sessions focussed on what enterprises feared to lose in case they do not adopt e-business suites that have changed the dynamics of the industry. Now it is not nine-to-five, five days a week, but 24 hours throughout the week. At the same time, the major impediments to growth of e-business and e-banking initiatives in countries like Pakistan were also discussed at length. These included data security risks, and susceptibility to frauds and cyber crimes. A product -- Oracle Identity Management -- was suggested as a solution that, according to the provider, offers single sign-on, user provisioning and protection for data from unprivileged users.

A major finding based on the deliberations held at the event was that the management of exponential database growth and retaining or winning over of customers on the basis of better customer services are the foremost challenges faced by enterprises today. In the face of local and international regulatory requirements, which call for longer archive periods for historical data, data centers have to concentrate their energies and spend more on maintaining huge databases. At the same time, better customer service has become a key to success for businesses, as the cost factor has become less decisive due to unending price wars between competitors.

For the public sector, the session on Increasing Efficiency and Transparency had a lot to offer to the governments that are working to become more responsive, efficient and actionable as they modernise operations and enhance services -- while they are under pressure to increase services and efficiency without raising taxes.

The session on how to Deliver Citizen Services dealt with the challenges that agencies face in integrating programmes and systems across departments and levels of government. Such agencies are trying to enable centralised government contact centres, provide a comprehensive view of citizens across departments and agencies, and manage cases and workloads. Another session on Improving Revenue Generation centred on improving the efficiency of tax and revenue collection, and increasing compliance. This session was of special interest to organisations that collect and generate revenue, such as tax agencies, municipal utilities, public transportation and a host of other agencies that collect fees or fines. A set of deliberations was also offered for specific government segments -- such as social services, public transportation and healthcare ñ on how to streamline their systems and increase the quality of their services.

In short the message for enterprises, especially those in the underdeveloped world, was that adoption of IT is no more a matter of choice and has become a compulsion. Those adhering to it will survive in this age of globalisation and those resisting it will be wiped out from the scene.