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Editorial trade Students,
made in China terorism Security
concerns
Editorial China is not what it used to be, more so for us Pakistanis who were programmed to cast the country in a particular mould. But things are changing here as well. Perceptions have given way to hard truths. Against the backdrop of Asia’s fast-changing economic and political considerations, it would be interesting to see what course relations between Pakistan and China take in a competitive environment, polluted by the visible threat of terrorism. And, is there a myth that needs to be challenged when it comes to the proverbial higher-than-the-Himalayas friendship of China and Pakistan? On the face of it, relations between the two countries have defied the usual interest-based and matter-of-fact rules of international relations. Today, China’s phenomenal rise in terms of its expanding economy and regional influence, especially during the last decade, makes it all the more pertinent for Pakistan to re-evaluate its relations with the Asian giant and go beyond the rhetoric. There is a need to look at the bigger picture mutual benefit in the Pak-China relations, especially when the Chinese government and society is gradually opening up, allowing more overseas students, including Pakistanis, to come to China. One emerging realisation among Pakistanis is that we as a country may not figure as prominently in China’s scheme of things as we believe we do. That is because Beijing has amply demonstrated its regional and global aims. The US happens to be China’s largest global market, after the EU. Not surprisingly, Beijing and New Delhi have vowed to raise bilateral trade to a whopping $100 billion by 2015 from $60 billion in 2010. Where does Pakistan stand? Islamabad may be valuable for Beijing in strategic terms, and that leads us to the military and civilian nuclear cooperation between the two countries, but is Pakistan important for China in economic and political terms as well? China has not meddled in Pakistan’s political affairs, except terrorism and that only when it concerns its land or people. Trade is where the two countries have some business to do. According to one estimate, annual trade between Pakistan and China has increased from less than US$2 billion in 2002 to about $6.9 billion, with a goal of achieving $15 billion by 2014. Still, the worrying part is that China’s trade surplus with Pakistan is expected to increase in coming years. Can we change the pattern? While China very smartly pursues its interests in the neighbourhood and beyond, Pakistan should be able to learn a lesson or two from its neighbour friend.
trade “Pakistan is an important country in South Asia. The stability and development of Pakistan is closely connected with the peace and stability of South Asia.” These words of support came from none else than Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson soon after the US announced suspension of $800 million assistance to the country. The assertion seems true keeping in view the history of mutual relations between the two countries, which have remained friendly irrespective of whosoever is in power. Both the countries have extended cooperation to each other in different fields and termed each other a trusted friend. Increase in mutual trade and promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) have also been on the agenda. In this connection, Pakistan and China signed a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2006 and opened their territories for promising businessmen from either side. Initially, the trade could not pick up pace as expected but over the period of five years its volume reached $8.7 billion mark. Pakistan’s share in this is much lower than $1 billion. This, no doubt, is a negligible figure keeping in view the point that China imports goods worth $1 trillion dollar from all over the globe and that Pakistan’s shares a geographical boundary with it. The diplomatic and strategic relations between the two countries have developed over the last 60 years but the expansion in their economic relations is a relatively new phenomenon, says a research paper on “Pakistan-China trade and investment relations” produced by Fazala-ur-Rehman. The author, who is Director (China & Pacific Basin) at the Institute of Strategic Studies and a PhD candidate at the department of South Asia Studies, Peking University, terms the period between years 2000 and 2010 a decade of institutionalising Pak-China economic relations. Under this initiative, the
paper says China is working on a plan for the upgradation of Karakoram
Highway at an approximate cost of $500 million, building 165 km long
Jaglot-Skardu and 135km Thakot-Sazin roads in Gilgit-Baltistan at a cost of
Rs45 billion. China will pay 85 percent of the cost, while Pakistan will
contribute 15 percent. Besides, a rail link between the two countries is
envisaged to be built, the study adds. These initiatives are in addition to construction of Gawadar Port, lease of Saindak copper-gold project, supply of locomotives, supply of passenger coaches to railways, white oil pipeline, co-operation in nuclear energy sector and major investment in telecommunication sector. The question that arises here is whether Pakistan stands to gain anything from this cooperation or it’s designed to benefit China in order to acknowledge its support to the country in different sectors. The local manufacturers have shown concern that huge penetration of cheap Chinese products into the Pakistani market has driven them out of it. Nabeel Hashmi, Vice Chairman Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM), tells TNS that the FTA signed between the two countries overwhelmingly favours China as it allows duty-free import of 9000 categories of products to Pakistan. This, he says, has resulted in a flood of Chinese products into Pakistani markets and winding up of local manufacturing concerns. Nabeel says, unfortunately, the FTA between China and Pakistan does not seem to have been signed according to the set principles and realities of international trade. Signed for whatever reason, it does not protect Pakistani products which are not competitive. Ideally, he says the duty-free export of those goods is allowed which are already available in the local market at competitive rates for example surgical goods, fabric etc. The situation on the ground is that a large number of people have lost their jobs and Pakistan is fast becoming an import-oriented economy. He says China produces goods for the global market due to which it enjoys economies of scale and the cost per unit comes down significantly. On the other hand, Pakistan exports raw material like minerals, copper chrome, etc to Pakistan which may export them back to Pakistan after value-addition. This definitely tilts the balance of trade in favour of China,” he adds. Nabeel enumerates that rising electricity tariffs and energy shortage, lack of skilled labour, high rate of interest on bank finance and absence of value-addition are factors which have pushed Pakistani products out of competition. He says by signing FTA, Pakistan has practically surrendered its right to initiate anti-dumping proceedings even if there are clear proofs of dumping. Dr Salman Shah, former advisor on finance to prime minister, believes a huge opportunity exists for Pakistan to benefit from China in the field of economy and trade. He says Pakistan can become gateway to China which is the second largest economy of the world and also the second largest importer in terms of value of imports. Salman says China can procure Pakistani products on low duties and the country can become its resource base. The problem, however, is that Pakistani entrepreneurs have a fixation with the European and US markets and have never explored export opportunities in China. Another major hindrance, he says, is the Chinese language which very few Pakistani businessmen know. “I would suggest Pakistani entrepreneurs to look for opportunities in China as the future lies there. I am quite sure China will become the largest economy in the next 20 to 25 years.” Salman thinks Pakistani construction companies and cement manufacturers can have a share in the ongoing development of Western China. The country is investing heavily on the infrastructure in this area which no doubt offers a golden opportunity to Pakistan. Salman believes Chinese investment in Pakistan can boost the latter’s economy and also help it overcome its energy needs. He shares it with TNS that during their government they had finalised a plan to set up a Pak-China export zone on the outskirts of Lahore. A lot of work had been done on the project but it could not kick off due to change in government, he adds. Last but not the least, Salman says Pakistan can earn a lot in the form of gas tariff in case gas pipelines originating from Iran and Middle East and culminating in China pass through Pakistan. This way Pakistan’s importance will increase and China will depend more on it regarding its ever-growing energy needs.
Students,
made in China Chinese universities are about to give Western universities a run for their money within two decades, according to Professor Richard Levin, President of Yale University. While the West battles economic recession, cuts down university grants and budgets (the UK has cut 950 million pounds) and increases student fees, China’s economy — and higher education spending — is going from strength to strength. The Chinese now invest billions of yuan — around 1.5 percent of its gross domestic product — on higher education. China increased the number of its higher education institutions in the last decade from 1,022 to 2,263, creating the largest higher education sector in the world. Now, six million Chinese students enroll in degree courses every year compared to 1 million in 1997 — an unprecedented and exponential increase, but commonplace in China. However, Chinese education is not as multi-disciplinary yet. Compared to Western education, it does not focus on critical thinking, liberal arts, and other international concerns like globalisation, climate change, etc. The biggest impediments might be its political system and absence of freedom of speech. Also, though China has
many courses in English, the society as a whole is far from multi-lingual.
But living and studying in an exquisite society, with a unique and original
culture, is a boon in itself. And just like China has opened its arms for
Western languages, the World now realises the significance of Chinese, and
many people don’t mind a few years in Beijing to fine-tune their Mandarin. Pakistanis have been embracing Chinese education for decades. Now as China enters its academic renaissance and opens its generous doors to foreigners, Pakistan is likely to become a beneficiary too. Medicine is a popular career option in Pakistan. Pakistan has far fewer colleges than China, the latter attracting students due to its world-class degrees, low cost and PMDC/WHO recognised institutes. “I graduated from Xi’an Jiaotong University in 2005,” says Dr. Baber Jadoon, based in Peshawar. “Some 100 Pakistanis studied with me, when I was graduating, there were some 4600 Pakistanis only in my university.” Jadoon adds that some 35 more universities in China cater to Pakistani students and a four-month Mandarin course resolves the language problem. Dr. Jadoon has no qualms in stating that the Chinese medical training is more apt than the local one, stating that his professors were foreign-qualified doctorates. For example, to practise dissection the Chinese institutes have one corpse per four students as compared to the Pakistani ratio of one corpse for an entire class. Also, the Chinese degree is more economical and less time-consuming than a Western MBBS. Plus, the Chinese job market is growing and lucrative for those who decide to stay back. In Pakistan, sometimes even the brightest pre-medical student do not secure admissions because of paucity of seats, whereas the numerous Chinese institutes open their doors for students with average grades. “In my time, studying there was cheaper than in Frontier Medical College. But the cost has increased, now.” says Dr. Jadoon. The cost of higher education in China is regulated (like everything else) and subsidised by the Ministry of Education (MOE). Some five years ago, the tuition fee was a meager $1000. At some places it has been revised to $2500 annually, excluding other expenditure. In some medical colleges the final year is free. Short language courses, which constitute one of China’s foremost educational attractions, cost just a few hundred US dollars. The cost of living is quite low. For example, a subway ticket in Beijing is 30 cents, while the bus fare is 15 cents. Pakistanis, especially those wanting to study in the US, often cannot due to the strict visa policies. Either they are directly refused a visa or the processing is tedious and delayed. But China is different. Despite the occasional Sinkiang and Kashgar terror strikes, almost everybody gets a visa. And the social attitude there is far from discriminatory. “People are very kind and they love Pakistanis. When a taxi driver asks “You are from which country?” And when we say we are from Pakistan, his first expression is, “We are very good friends,” says Dr. Nadeem Akhtar who did his doctorate from Wuhan University, HUBIE. “Students from HEC or Cultural Exchange scholarships are working in good places. For example, Dr. Abdul Jalil who was on Cultural Exchange Scholarship (MOE), published more than 20 papers and is now working in Quaid-e-Azam University. Another Dr. Sahin Musarrat Ishaq was doing post-doc in Wisconsin Madison University in America.” However, all is not rosy for aspiring doctors attempting to reach China. Some agents promising glorious dreams about the Middle Kingdom can only be called fraudsters and send students to unrecognised or fake universities. One such reported case was that of a Rawalpindi resident, sent to Changsha Medical University, after being misled about its credentials. China seems to be quite willing to internationalise its society in order to enhance its soft power. Indeed, student exchanges serve as Track II diplomacy the world over. This year, the Chinese Embassy Cultural Counsellor, Yang Linhai, announced 500 scholarships for Pakistani students in the next three years. He hopes this will promote a deeper understanding of the two countries. Each year several doctorate and research scholarships are granted to Pakistani students through HEC. This April, 100 Pakistani youngsters went on a week-long cultural tour of Beijing through the youth ministry. However, the transparency and selection criteria of both HEC and the Youth Ministry is under question. Some 500,000 international students will embrace China by 2020 according to Hao Ping, the Chinese Vice Minister of Education. Almost 60 percent of those students want to learn the Chinese language also. (13.5 percent are likely to study medicine) The Chinese central government provided 800 million yuan ($121.7 million) worth scholarships to such students in 2010 and local governments offered an additional 110 million yuan in scholarships. Schools like Cornell, Columbia, London School of Economics, John Hopkins, Auburn, Nottingham and many more, have either out-sourced their campuses ( faculty and programs included) to China or offer degrees in coordination with Chinese universities. The Chinese have established around 280 Confucius Institutes and 270 Confucius Classrooms in 88 countries and regions, training 260,000 students about China’s culture and language. In Pakistan, the first Confucius Institute was set up in The National University of Modern Languages (NUML), Islamabad in 2005, and according to NUML spokesman Muddasir Mukhtar, this institute was ranked the best of its kind in the world this year. China is ready to invest big in education. Hopefully, Pakistanis will make constructive use of this windfall.
terorism Mounting terrorist activities by Muslim separatists in the trouble-stricken Xinjiang province of China and the recent claim by Beijing that the Uyghur militants are actually being trained in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, has come as a major blow to the much proclaimed all-weather Sino-Pak friendship, putting enormous pressure on Islamabad to act against the Chinese rebels before it is too late. Two bomb blasts in Kashgar city of Xinjiang on July 30 and 31, which killed at least 20 people, quickly revived the Chinese concerns over Pakistan’s apparent inaction against Uyghur Muslim separatists who are allegedly operating from their sanctuaries in the North Waziristan region. The Chinese claim about the involvement of a terrorist group in Kashgar attacks was made on the basis of a confession by a captured Uyghur militant. The Pakistan government, for its part, was quick to extend all possible cooperation to China against the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which is also described as the Turkestani Islamic Party (TIP) and seeks the creation of an independent Islamic state of East Turkistan in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province. The blasts prompted senior Chinese government officials to publicly claim for the first time in recent years that the attackers were trained in explosives in camps run by the al-Qaeda-linked ETIM. The ETIM, which is run by natives of Xinjiang, a Muslim-dominated region three times the size of France, is fighting against the settlement of China’s majority Han ethnic group in the western province, describing its struggle as a freedom movement. There is a history of separatism in Xinjiang, stretching back some 50 years, and more than 200 civilians were killed in ethnic violence between the Han and Uyghur communities in 2009. However, that China’s accusations were directed towards Pakistan should merit concern in Islamabad. The Chinese accusation was all the more striking because Islamabad, whose ties with Washington have suffered a setback since the May 2 killing of Osama bin Laden, has been trying to consolidate relations with China, its time-tested neighbour. The Chinese allegation was described by many in diplomatic circles of Islamabad as a clear indication of the growing Chinese impatience with Pakistan’s inability to control radical groups operating within its borders. ‘Terrorists, extremists and separatists in Xinjiang constitute an evil force,’ said an August 1, 2011 statement issued by Pakistan Foreign Ministry. The statement came after Chinese President Hu Jintao rang President Asif Zardari to express concern over the growing terror activities of the ETIM in Xinjiang. Subsequently, Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), rushed to Beijing to address the Chinese concerns. The Pakistan-based Chinese
separatist movement is evidently a matter of serious concern for Beijing
that it has even asked Islamabad to allow it a military presence either in
Khyber Pakhtunkhawa or in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of
Pakistan. Similar to the American presence in the country, this would enable
Beijing to effectively counter Chinese separatists who are operating in the
area. That the ETIM militants had extended their network of terrorist activities to Pakistan became abundantly clear in 2009 when they threatened the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad through a letter, expressing their intention to kidnap Chinese diplomats and consular officers to highlight their cause. The Chinese mission consequently informed the Pakistani authorities that some members of the ETIM had already reached Islamabad and were planning to kidnap Chinese staffers from the federal capital. Pakistani law-enforcement agencies, therefore, arrested 10 ETIM militants and extradited them to China despite apprehensions expressed by the Amnesty International that they could be at risk of serious human-rights violations, including unfair trial, torture and execution. The extradition of the ETIM militants came about as the result of three agreements between Pakistan and China to curb militancy and extremism. Diplomatic sources say Pakistan and China, which have been cooperating for a long time in the field of counter-terrorism, have intensified their efforts to nip the evil of terrorism in the bud, especially after the Kashgar blasts. Following these attacks, China has shared with Pakistan a list of terrorists and groups which are of concern to Beijing, seeking a severe action against them. The list noted various aspects of two main terrorist organizations — Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement and Eastern Turkistan Liberation Organisation as well as terrorists attached to them. Beijing has maintained that a good number of the Uyghur militants were enrolled in the Pakistani religious seminaries during the 1980s and had fought the Soviet occupation forces in Afghanistan. A few of these madrassas also provided an important site for the recruitment and training of the Uyghur fighters, some of whom later returned to Xinjiang to advance their separatist agenda. China has provided details of the origin of these terrorists, a brief description of the major acts of terror committed by them, their chief leaders, major sources of funds and personnel, as well as an outline of relations between them and other global terrorist organisations. Beijing believes that the Chinese rebels operating from the Pakistani tribal areas are well-connected to al-Qaeda which not only trains them but also provides funding. In fact, Abdul Shakoor Turkestani, a Chinese Uyghur who is known for promoting Islamic extremism, has taken control of overall command of the foreign militants in Pakistan’s tribal region. He has always been on good terms with almost all the major Pakistani Taliban groups. Abdul Shakoor Turkestani had previously been working under the command of Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, a former leader of the Eastern Turkestani Islamic Movement, and late Tahir Yuldashev of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Although no one can deny the fact that Pakistan has great love for China, the fact remains that the Sino-Pak relations are in danger of being undermined, not only because of the presence of Chinese separatists in the Pakistan’s tribal areas but also due to the fact that Chinese nationals have died working in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in the past at the hands of terrorists. Though the ETIM network on Pak-Afghan border was significantly weakened in recent years in the wake of the killings of many of its top leaders in US drone attacks, hardcore Uyghur militants are still shuttling between China and Pakistan to conduct cross-border terrorist activities given the fact that Xinjiang shares a common border with Pakistan. Therefore, Islamabad needs to take more effective measures to dismantle the network of Uyghur militants from its soil, if it wants to stop China from joining the chorus of three other neighboring states — India, Afghanistan and Iran that Pakistan has simply failed to demolish terrorist training camps on its soil. Security
concerns An important field where China has cooperated with Pakistan is acquisition of military hardware and nuclear weapons delivery technology — the two areas where Pakistan and China have not yielded to any outside pressure. “China’s nuclear cooperation with Pakistan can be divided into two categories — peaceful, and weapons-related,” says Dr Farooq Hasnat, Adjunct Scholar, Middle East Institute, Washington DC. Hasnat explains the nature of these relations, “It is wrongly believed by some that Pakistan has got nuclear technology from China. We apply a different nuclear methodology than that of China and we somehow managed to acquire it from Holland and the black market, such as from Germany, etc,” he says adding, “But we did get the nuclear delivery system from China, such as the missile technology which could be used to carry nuclear weapons.” That help from China came at a cost, “Because of China’s cooperation with Pakistan, we were subjected to seven layers of various sanctions by the US, which were eventually lifted after 9/11 one after the other.” Hasnat says the cooperation is not just confined to transfer of military hardware, “China has cooperated with us for developing Chashma nuclear power plant, which is subject to inspection and clearance by the IAEA unlike military aid.” Hasnat puts the whole issue in context, “Pakistan’s military cooperation with Beijing is wide-ranging and dates back to the early years of our independence, one culmination of which is JF 17 Thunder fighter aircraft. China is understandably one of the biggest arms supplier to Pakistan,” he adds. “China’s nuclear technology development cooperation is governed by two agreements signed between the two countries, one in 1976 and the other in 1986,” says Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, senior defence analyst. “We do not have definitive data or information about the level of this cooperation,” he says, adding, “But we do know that this help or cooperation is long-lasting and is not hampered by an issue. China has given us the nuclear civilian technology in the shape of the Chashma nuclear power plant while the US has denied us that due to the nuclear proliferation charges against our nuclear scientist Dr. Abdul Qadir Khan.” Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, renowned analyst on security issues focuses on the scale of military cooperation, saying, “Sino-Pak relations mainly revolve around military to military or state to state interaction.” Ayesha agrees that, historically, China’s relations with Pakistan have remained strategic, “Islamabad has historically looked up to Beijing for support, especially in terms of military hardware and technology. While framing it in a very narrow ‘rational-state-power’ perspective, former ambassador Tariq Fatemi believes that Islamabad’s only strategic relationship with any country is with China.” She says China’s importance increases for Pakistan when it faces an arms embargo, “Beijing is critical for Pakistan’s military as one of the key suppliers of technology, especially when GHQ Rawalpindi is confronted with American arms embargo.” Ayesha points to another aspect which is weapons diversification, “In recent years, the military relationship with Beijing has gone beyond the principle of diversification,” she says, adding, “The army’s mainstay in terms of equipment is China. The other two services seem to be following in the army’s footsteps. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) seems to be planning a greater dependence on the JF-17 Thunder aircraft, a technology co-developed and co-produced with China. Apparently, there are plans to procure 250 of these aircraft to fulfill the military modernisation needs of the PAF. Other projects include co-production of the K-8 trainer aircraft.” She says diversification does not confine to military or air force, “The Navy, which was known for its dependence on Western technology, especially European, also seems to be moving towards China. Although the navy still represents a balanced mix between Western and Chinese technology, there is a debate regarding expanding Chinese hardware including submarines. Currently, the navy has co-development and co-production projects with China for missile and gunboats. It has also acquired the Chinese F-22P frigates on the basis of transfer of technology.” Cooperation in the nuclear field is mostly confined to delivery systems, “There is cooperation in the nuclear field: both military and civilian programmes. Islamabad, in fact, is eyeing nuclear cooperation with China of the same scale as between India and US. One of the many reasons that nuclear cooperation has not expanded to the above-mentioned scale is because Beijing does not have the technology for bigger megawatt nuclear power plants as the US. China has old reactor technology that it has passed on to Pakistan in the form of Chashma I and II,” Ayesha says. She believes the cooperation in the field is likely to expand in future, “The Sino-Pak military cooperation is likely to grow due to Beijing’s increased interest in developing its strategic position in South Asia through developing basing facilities around the region,” she says, adding, “The investment in Gwadar and Balochistan in general, hence, is critical from the Chinese perspective. The province is not only rich in minerals but can provide China access to the Arabian Sea.” Ayesha believes Islamabad has to develop some clarity of thought in this regard, “How Pakistan can benefit more from the relationship depends on the clarity of thought in Islamabad. Pakistan has not managed to draw the best out of the relationship, especially as far as transfer of technology is concerned, due to its own lack of clarity. Its time we thought and debated how the future bilateral cooperation could be of greater benefit.”
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