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trade The
first step population Time to
implement analysis firstperson A
big challenge trade Rhetoric and reality There is a fairly strong case for discarding the single undertaking approach in WTO in favour of liberalising in select areas By Hussain H. Zaidi Except for the accession
of the Russian Federation, as well as Samoa and Montenegro, the eighth
Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) held in
Geneva on December 15-17, 2011 had nothing remarkable about it. Russia is the only major
economic and trading nation which is not a WTO member despite being in the
accession process for one and a half decade. Now that Moscow has been
given a green signal by the Ministerial Conference, it will formally
accede to the WTO after the instrument of ratification has been signed by
the Russian government. The chairperson’s
concluding statement, issued at the end of the Ministerial Conference, is
replete with rhetoric: WTO members agreed to strengthen the multilateral
trading system to stimulate growth and development; affirmed their
commitment to resist protectionism in all its forms; and committed
themselves to successful completion of the Doha development agenda.
Specifically, the members agreed to provide preferential market access to
services and service providers of the least developed countries (LDCs) by
adopting a permanent waiver, and extended prohibition of tariffs on goods
sold online (e-commerce). The ministers, however,
failed to break the impasse in the conclusion of the Doha Round launched
in 2001 and originally supposed to complete in 2004. The failure to clinch
a deal brings out the disparity between the virtues of freer trade
preached by economics theories and the case for protectionism espoused by
powerful lobbies. The continuing economic slowdown in both the US and the
European Union (EU), which together account for nearly half of the global
trade, has made this disparity even greater. In order to grasp the
causes of the stalemate in the implementation of the DDA, it is important
to understand the context in which the Doha Declaration was made. The Doha
Ministerial Conference, which marked the beginning of the Doha round, was
the fourth meeting of the apex body. The third Ministerial Conference in
Seattle in 1999 was supposed to launch a new round of trade negotiations.
But the Conference ended in fiasco and was unable to adopt a declaration. The major contentious
issues pertained to reforms in trade in agriculture, linking trade and
labour standards (particularly child labour), and negotiation of a
Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI). It was also during the Seattle
meeting that growing influence of developing countries on the multilateral
forum was felt. The Doha development
agenda represented a compromise between the positions of developed and
developing countries. The developed countries agreed to liberalise trade
in agriculture and address special needs of developing countries in
non-agricultural market access and trade in services without defining the
modalities of the reforms as well as the timeframe within which the same
were to be carried out. However, countries big
or small, developed or developing have highly protected sectors, which
they are reluctant to liberalise. Developed countries, for instance, have
a highly protected and heavily subsidized agricultural sector. In
Switzerland, average applied tariffs on agricultural products are 45
percent and in some cases maximum tariffs exceed 1,000 percent. Japan
applies 1,000 percent tariffs on import of rice, while those on dairy
products are as high as 600 percent. The EU countries apply
tariffs of more than 200 percent on several agricultural products. In case
of the US, though average applied tariffs on agricultural products are
less than 6 percent, in many cases tariffs are close to or more than 100
percent. Similarly, developing
countries by and large have highly sensitive industrial sub sectors. Take
the two largest developing economies, namely China and India. In case of
China, though average applied tariffs on manufactures are less than 10
percent, tariff peaks exist in several sectors, such as textiles and
clothing, leather articles, chemicals, electrical and mechanical
appliances and the auto sector. The Chinese economy is
also highly subsidized, which makes domestic products cheaper than foreign
competing products. India applies more than 250 percent tariffs on some
textiles products, while in some other sectors, such as clothing,
chemicals, fruits and vegetables and beverages, tariffs exceed 100 per
cent. WTO members agree that
they will be allowed to exempt certain number of products — called
sensitive products for all countries and special products for only
developing countries — from the tariff reduction formula. The big issues
are the number of products that a member may designate as special or
sensitive products, the level of tariff reduction for them and the number
of such products which a member can totally exclude from tariff reduction.
These issues are
important because allowing a very large number of products as sensitive or
special would mean that the products with the highest tariffs and thus
most in need of reduction commitments would remain protected. In fine, since one
country’s protected or sensitive sector is of another’s export
interest, the Doha Round seems to be getting nowhere. The recent economic
crisis in the West and the resultant fears of further job losses has only
made things more difficult and made further trade liberalisation harder to
sell at home. Then there are some
other factors. One, courtesy the emerging economies, such as China, India
and Brazil, developing countries have come to exercise a much greater
influence on the WTO stage than previously and without taking their
interests into consideration, no final deal can be struck. The LDCs have their own
concerns. Since the LDCs enjoy duty free access in the markets of most of
the developed economies, tariff reduction envisaged by the Doha Round will
attenuate the tariff preferences enjoyed by them — preference erosion as
the problem has been called. Since in the WTO decisions are made by
consensus, the LDCs can effectively block a final agreement if preference
erosion is not addressed to their satisfaction. Finally, trade
negotiations have expanded into such areas as agriculture and services —
both being highly sensitive politically. Since (as per the special and
differential treatment principle) developed countries are required to
offer more than they will get, the agreed package may be difficult to sell
in some of their domestic constituencies. For instance, the European Union
(EU) may have to overhaul its agricultural regime, which obviously will
evoke intense opposition of the affected sector. Such problems have
pushed the principle of ‘flexibility’ into the negotiations. The
principle allows WTO members to exempt a select number of products, to be
called sensitive products, from the general tariff or subsidy reduction
commitments. However, the range of flexibilities has itself become an
apple of discord because the products carrying higher tariffs are likely
to be shielded from liberalisation. In addition to political
will, there is the need for out-of the-box thinking to complete the Doha
Round. One proposal is to discard the single undertaking principle. In WTO,
decisions are made on the basis of single undertaking, which means that
nothing is agreed unless all is agreed and decisions are made in the form
of a comprehensive package which the members should accept or reject in
toto. The positive thing about
the single undertaking principle is that it is a give-and-take approach,
which is very important for successful negotiations. However, it is not
without its drawbacks. For one thing, it makes for slow decision-making at
times leads to stalemate just as in current Doha Round negotiations.
Secondly, not all countries are ready to undertake commitments in all
areas ranging from reduction of agriculture subsidies to copyright
protection simultaneously. The single undertaking approach makes them shy
away from undertaking commitments even in areas where they can, because it
will make them undertake commitments in areas where they are unable to do
so. In view of such problems, there is a fairly strong case for discarding
the single undertaking approach in favour of liberalizing in select areas.
The
first step In August 2011,
President Asif Ali Zardari announced some drastic changes in Frontier
Crimes Regulation (FCR) after holding long discussions with tribal elders
and lawyers. As the announcement was
made all the political parties diverted their attention toward the tribal
people where they could attract more people to further extend their
votebank among the eight million people of Fata. The people in Fata, who
were intentionally kept away from development during the British regime
and by their successors, do not know what these regulations hold for them.
The people in the tribal
belt are also unfamiliar with the Political Parties Act. The leaders and
workers of the political parties are organizing political awareness
programmes at village and in bazaars. Though some of the political party
leaders are not happy with the reforms brought in FCR, however, they term
it a foundation for further changes in FCR. While the tribal people
have appreciated and welcomed the reforms, some leaders have rejected the
regulations categorically. Prominent lawyer and senior Awami National
Party leader, Abdul Latif Khan Afridi, says the “reforms are
insufficient for the prosperity and development in Fata”, but he terms
it “a window for a progressive and social Fata”. He says it is “a
dream for the tribal people to enjoy political, social and right to
expression in Fata”. The British rulers first
imposed the draconian regulations in NWFP in 1872 to control the tribal.
According to Article 247 of the Constitution, Fata would not be directly
administered but would be run under system of Frontier Crimes Regulations.
Latif Afridi says FCR was misused for more than one hundred years by both
the British rulers and Pakistani authorities for their vested interests
because it was made as a tool to control the Pashtuns. With the passage of
time, he agrees, awareness has spread among the young generation and
people now raise questions about social and civil r rights. As a result,
the first minor change was brought in FCR in 1967 when people were given
some relaxation in Act 40 of the FCR. Abdul Latif Afridi argues that until
and unless the nature of Acts 1, 246, and 247 of the Constitution are
changed it is not possible to bring a big change in FCR. However, he
suggests that Fata should be brought under control of KPK. In the regulations
introduced in 2011, political agent has been granted the discretionary
power to give death sentence. People in Fata are suspicious about the
change because now a single witness, whether false or true, is enough for
the execution of a tribal man. Former ambassador to
Afghanistan and senior analyst, Rustam Shah Mohmand, links reforms with
basic necessities and rights of the tribal people. He says if we are to
make reforms in Fata, People’s views should be respected and included in
them, saying that over 50 percent of the tribal area has been destroyed in
the last ten years of militancy. “The regulations offer
no solutions for the aggrieved families of 40,000 people who have lost
their near and dear ones or were injured after 9/11. This has made them
vulnerable in society. “No consultation has
been done with the people of Fata or their representatives in the assembly
before imposing the law on them”, he says. Rustam Shah Mohmand says
“unless the civil administration starts to pursue its designated duties,
peace and socio-political and economic development in these areas would
remain elusive, adding or removing specific clauses from FCR will not
improve the law and order situation in Fata”. Dr Sarfaraz Khan,
director of Area Study Center at University of Peshawar, says so far
tribals have not been actually empowered to decide their own matters. He terms the reforms
inadequate and says that tribals have not been considered as complete
citizens as compared with the other citizens in Pakistan. He says the
people of Fata are exploited by rulers and now it is the turn of political
parties to use the same tactics in their own way. Former Jamaat-e-Islami
chief and senior JI leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, says that though
theoretically it is a great achievement for the tribal people in the shape
of reforms but the new regulations do not deliver as they should. He says
thousands of tribal people went into the hands of militants because of
deprivation, ignorance, and joblessness in Fata. Justice retired Mian
Ajmal, who was heading the reforms committee, says that “92 percent
recommendations made by the committee are signed by President Asif Ali
Zardari”. He hopes that “it would be the first step toward the light
from darkness if tribal people do not let their struggle go down in this
regard”. Awami National Party
senior leader, Imran Afridi, talking to TNS, says they were struggling for
the complete abolition of FCR and that they consider the change as a
beacon of light in the dark. Afridi rejects the regulations implemented in
Fata, saying if one right is given to the tribal people one is snatched
from them in the shape of civil power regulations enactments because as
per the Action in Aid of civil powers regulations no individual can appeal
against the verdict taken by the Political Agent. Pakistan People’s
Party (PPP) Mohmand agency president, Dr. Farooq Mohmand, not only
appreciates efforts of PPP-led government but also thanks President Asif
Ali Zardari on the historic change he has brought in the FCR. He says now
“the tribal people have the platform in the shape of political parties
through which they will raise their voice for their political and social
rights.”
population Walking down the road in
the prestigious Almadies area in Dakar, small shack-like make-shift homes
are visible on both sides. Underprivileged Senegalese children are visible
playing with toys invented out of trash. Their mothers are mostly
squatting on the roadsides, selling roasted peanuts, sitting under shades
made out of cloth pieces hoisted on small wooden poles. The children look
raggedy, poor and….just…..too many. It is no surprise as 43 percent of
the population in Sub-Saharan Africa is under 15, and only 10 percent of
the women of French-speaking West Africa have access to hormonal birth
control methods. Walking down the same
road, one is led to the prestigious Le Meridien President Hotel, sprawling
over a huge area. Picturesque and located alongside a magnificent beach,
the hotel is teeming with busy looking people from all over the world.
Dakar, Senegal, is hosting the International Conference for Family
Planning (ICFP), 2011, from the 29th of November till the 2nd of December. ICFP 2011 was the
world’s largest-ever gathering of activists, experts, and campaigners in
the field of family planning. It boasted of 2,000 plus participants from
around the world — stalwarts of the field, who put their heads together
to discover solutions to some of humanity’s throbbing problems. A
participant called Senegal, the host country, “the wild, wild west of
family planning”. The conference came at a
good time, as this year the world witnessed the birth of the seven
billionth baby and the number of babies born every second is still a
whopping 4.3. It is no wonder, then, that the emphasis on family planning
is mounting. The Conference was co-sponsored by over 30 international
organisations. These included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID,
UNFPA, WHO, and the World Bank. The Gates Foundation is investing $70m a
year in Family Planning (FP). Melinda Gates called it one of her top
priorities, and advocated the importance of women having control of their
well-being and lives. Family Planning — the
word entails so much more than just limiting the number of children.
Issues like sexual and reproductive health are a part and parcel of
population and FP issues. The implications of family planning, spacing
between children, use of contraception, maternal and child health, and use
of contraceptives also as a means of protection against sexually
transmitted diseases, including HIV, all of this and so much more comes
under it. The conference saw an
increased emphasis on the sexual and reproductive health issues of
adolescents, a topic which is often brushed under the rug in most parts of
the world, especially the developing world, due to taboos attached with
it. How many of us would discuss these issues with our teenage children or
make sure they have enough knowledge to stay safe and healthy, here in
Pakistan? The implications of apathy towards these issues can have a
far-reaching effect. An estimated 40 percent
of pregnancies in the developing world are unplanned. Almost 50 percent of
these are aborted, and these abortions in developing countries are mostly
unsafe. Related complications kill around 47,000 women a year. The
solution lies, therefore, in timely family planning, otherwise abortions
will continually be used as a form of family planning. Some 215 million women
around the world today know they need modern contraceptives, but do not
have access. The number of women who are unaware are higher A strong quote
from the Cairo population conference of 1994 sums it up: “If the woman
we treat for post-abortion complications is there because she could not
get contraception, we have failed her. If she leaves without family
planning, we have failed her twice.” Thus, a woman’s right over her
body, the size of her family, the mutual decision of the couple as regards
the number of children and in short a woman’s right over her life was an
important topic of many sessions of the ICFP 2011. We all know that in a
majority of the cases, the decision about when and how many children a
woman will have is a decision which rests with her husband, and in turn
her in-laws. Thus, male involvement is the key, family planning experts
rightly believe. Unless the men are taken on board, the high unmet need
for contraception will even get higher. In most cases, not only do men
refuse to cooperate, but also intimidate a woman into not using
contraception, and refuse to pay for the contraceptives. This scenario is
very common even in Pakistan. ICFP 2011 saw a lot of brainstorming on
advocacy among men, and also among in-laws, especially mother-in-laws. Newer, more
user-friendly and effective forms of contraception were discussed and
introduced in various sessions. Experts repeatedly concluded that a
variety of FP methods must be made available so that everyone who needs to
plan a family can have access to the kind most suited to their needs.
These would include natural methods like the “Cycle Bead necklace”
that helps keep a woman count of her fertile days, and awareness about
other methods. Ironically, Senegal has
a 94 percent Muslim population, and it is sometimes assumed that the
religion is against all forms of contraception. At the ICFP, some of the
most beneficial sessions were the ones organized by DSW (Deutsche Stiftung
Weltbevoelkerung), in consortium with core partners Christian Connections
for International Health (CCIH) and Muhammadiyah, who have been working on
consultations with religious leaders and faith based institutions (FBOs),
on the subject of getting FBOs to support reproductive health and/or
family planning. Christian-Catholic,
Christian-Protestant, Muslim, Hindu and Buddhist religious leaders have
been participants in these consultations. At the ICFP 2011, the sessions
gave out a very positive message — that no religion in the world can be
against the well-being of families and in particular women, and that
religion does not categorically forbid family planning. Yes, certain forms
of contraception and abortion are tricky subjects. However, we cannot work
on FP advocacy barring religious leadership. The Interfaith
Declaration to Improve Family Health and Well-Being begins with these
words: “We, leaders of religious institutions and faith based
organizations (FBO), believe that health is a universal value held by all
faiths and a universal right for human beings.” The declaration mentions
these statistics: “Each year lack of family planning services and
education in developing countries results in an estimated 600,000 newborn
deaths; 150,000 maternal deaths from abortion and other pregnancy-related
causes; and at least 340,000 children lose their mother.” The World AIDS Day, on
December 1st, drew a lot of attention towards combating AIDS and HIV
infection at the conference, particularly due to the latest research
finding that injectable contraception may increase the risk of HIV
infection, which makes FP even more connected to the issue of HIV. Emphasis is seen on not
just treatment but precaution. Research is also being focused on
multipurpose preventive strategies (MPTs) that will not only act as
contraceptives but also guard women against HIV and sexually transmitted
diseases. The discussions on the subject at ICFP 2011 were very salient
also for Pakistan, which is regarded
as a “low prevalence, high-risk” country as far as AIDS is concerned,
which means that while the number of cases may still be relatively low,
the stage is set for an epidemic unless transmission is prevented. Contraception is not
just about having fewer kids. It is about the health and well-being of
women, adolescents, children and entire families. Family planning
decisions effect the socio-economic development of families, communities
and nations. It relates to human rights and empowerment of women and
vulnerable groups of society.
Time
to implement The Senate unanimously
passed the Women Protection Bill and Anti-Acid Throwing Bill on 12th
December 2011 that envisages heavy penalties for offenders. Later, the
same has also been signed by the President of Pakistan. It is a historical
moment for women and women NGOs and a landmark to check violence against
women in the country. The bills approve
punishment against forced marriages and abuses like throwing acid,
physical violence and sexual torture against women, and stipulate 14 years
jail term with a fine of Rs1 million for offenders. The offences covered
by these bills will be non-bailable and non-compoundable. The Acid Control and
Acid Crime Prevention (Amendment) Bill is an amendment in Pakistan Penal
Code 1860. It increases the punishment for offenders up to life
imprisonment and makes it mandatory for the offender to pay a fine of Rs1
million to the victim. It outlined punishments
for social practices like Wanni, Swara or Budla-i-Sulh, wherein women are
traded to settle personal, family or tribal disputes. The act, hailed by
commentators as a show of collective resolve by political parties to fight
social taboos against women, deals with issues such as depriving women of
their inheritance and forcing them into marriages to settle disputes. The
bill also proposed prohibition of depriving woman of inheritance,
prohibition of forced marriage and marriage with the holy Quran. It is no doubt a great
achievement and a solid protection to women against violence against them
at domestic, community and state level, giving them a legal protection and
severe punishment to the criminals. On the other hand, it also has a
compact order of the government to express and ensure women social and
legal empowerment. Similarly, it is an
encouraging example of government, women organisations and civil society
organisations’ coordination and collaboration for a social development
and women empowerment cause as both of these bills are an initiative and
demand appeared from these non-governmental organisations, proving. In addition to that,
some other bills and policies passed by the parliament and or lying in the
pipeline are the submissions of civil society organizations, including
Protection against Harassment of Women at Workplace 2010, Domestic
Violence (prevention and protection) Bill 2008, Social Protection for
Homebased Women Workers Bill 2011, Hindu Marriage Bill 2011 and Christian
Marriage and Divorce Bill 2011 etc. There is still a lot of
work to be done to get real results and benefits of the legislation. As we
know that our police stations, especially at village and small town
perform as ‘Police State’ and have their own rules and authority over
and above the state laws. The crimes mentioned
above against women have mostly been dealt as family matters and settled
by male members of the family. The police either do not interfere or when
they get involved they support men to get some financial benefits. They are even not
allowed to write FIR appropriately. The case of Mukhtaran Mai is one
example. There is a dire need to take the following steps to ensure a
strict implementation through police and other concern law-enforcing ends: Dissemination of a copy
of the bill in form of Directive, both in Urdu and English to all Police
Stations at rural and urban levels for firm implementation. Inclusion of the bills
in the course of police training programmes at all Police Training
Institutions. Holding special training
and orientation sessions on the issues for middle and lower level police
officials. Setting up of police and
local community committees like peace committees at rural levels, building
linkages and coordination to address the issues. Launching of a
monitoring and accountability mechanism to check the proper implementation
of this new laws. The restoration and
reinstatement of local government system is one of the essential factors
to achieve the results as under this structure councilors and nazims have
a direct link and pressure on police stations and the police staff. They
have full information of community members, families and even individuals.
Since they have an effective political and social position in the
community they can support and play a useful role in the rationalisation
and application of the law in letter and sprit. Media can also help to
explain and promote the law and create a favorable atmosphere to
implement. Citizen journalism has emerged during the last few years where
the general public collects, develops and contributes news items, stories
and footage of incidents and accidents to relay and telecast on media.
This has become most effective, accessible and easily captured evidence
that can be placed before the court in support of the offence or violence
committed against women. An effective advocacy at
national level is also needed to alert male members of the community on
this new legal development. Similarly, government and non-governmental
organizations should launch a campaign of information dissemination on
this subject to institutions and individuals to get results. Women living in villages
are always reluctant to go to a police station as they do not feel
themselves safe there; moreover, they believe that no justice will be
brought about with them being a woman and a marginalised person of the
society. They hesitate to bring family disputes and cases of violence in
the public with the fear of resistance from family members, relatives and
the community. analysis For the best part of
five years, the higher courts — and the Chief Justice (CJ) of the
highest court in particular — have been the symbols of a new populist
politics. Never before in Pakistan’s chequered history have judges been
perceived as the defenders of peoples’ interests, and for obvious
reasons; hand-in-glove with the powerful classes that oppress the poor and
voiceless is the proverbial katcheri, and its partner in crime (pun
intended), the thana. The judicial functionaries with whom most Pakistanis
come into contact on a daily basis are defenders of the status quo, not
flagbearers of change. It is worth bearing in
mind that since the restoration of the CJ almost three years ago, the
oppressive and cumbersome judicial system in the districts and tehsils,
where ordinary Pakistanis live, has undergone no meaningful change. Yet
judges in the superior courts continue to be depicted by the popular media
and a segment of the political class as being deeply committed to radical
change. This perspective is not shared across a wide cross-section of
society, it must be said. While judges are recent
additions to the populist canon, a handful of political leaders, and most
of all generals, have regularly laid claim to saviour-hood. Imran Khan is
the newest kid on the block, at one and the same time convinced of his
destiny and trying to convince the rest of us that salvation lies in his
acceding to the highest political throne (outside of General
Headquarters). Whether or not he will succeed is a matter of conjecture.
What has become exceedingly clear over the past few weeks is that Imran
Khan’s fortunes, and those of other contenders for power, now depend
greatly on the choices to be made by the CJ and his brother judges. Memogate is really just
a byword for a much bigger and complex game of power politics that has
simmered since the very day that the parliament and presidency were ceded
by the military establishment to elected representatives almost four years
ago. The more recent chain of events that culminated in Memogate begins
with the Abbotabad operation – it was after the discovery of Osama bin
Laden a flutter away from the army’s preeminent training academy that
tensions between GHQ and the elected government reached fever pitch. In
short, the security establishment continues to patronise religious
militancy and insists that it alone should make policy vis a vis
Washington. Any civilian dispensation inclined to assert its own ideas on
these (and other related) fronts is not considered acceptable to the men
in khaki. It is important to get
all of this out in the open precisely because the CJ’s emergence as a
purported defender of people’s interests can be traced back to the last
days of General Musharraf, when a spate of rhetoric about the death of the
doctrine of necessity and the victory of popular sovereignty was bandied
about by everyone and sundry. There was also incessant invocation of the
‘rule of law’, and it is this supposedly sacred principle that the
Supreme Court is bound to uphold in the defining case of the
Zardari-Gilani-Iftikhar-Kayani era. In short, the esteemed
lordships have been asked (by Nawaz Sharif, no less) to determine whether
or not Hussain Haqqani, acting under instruction from the highest
political office, committed ‘treason’ against the constitution (read:
permanent state apparatus). This is indeed a very serious charge, and if
the ‘rule of law’ really is to be supreme then there can surely be no
tolerance for brazen defiance on the part of any state functionary. This is all well and
good, as long as the CJ and his brother judges take up such matters
indiscriminately. The SC’s silence vis a vis various cases of military
personnel completely violating the ‘rule of law’ suggest that the
principle is not, in fact, being upheld universally. Additionally, genuine
commitment to the social contract implies not only ensuring the ‘rule of
law’ but also upholding the principle of popular sovereignty; the truth
is that the ‘rule of law’ has all too often been employed by the
superior judiciary to undermine elected governments and provide an
opportunity for the security establishment to wreak havoc with the
political process. By all accounts — and
not just those of Pakistan People’s Party leaders — the security
establishment is once again seeking to unambiguously assert its power. In the two years between
the deposal of the CJ in March 2007 and his final reinstatement in March
2009, both the man himself and those around him went through great pains
to prove that the office of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court The CJ would do well to
remember that many informed citizens participated in the anti-dictatorship
movement which benefited his person. These individuals and the political
constituencies they represented were on the streets not because of an
undying love for an individual or even the sanctity of public office, but
on the basis of a political commitment to ending military rule and
restoring democracy. Today many of the same people will defend democracy
and the right of those who have been elected by the people of Pakistan to
complete their legitimate term in office. One hopes that the CJ and his
brother judges recognize the significance of the politics of the court
that they currently occupy. If they choose to feign ignorance and provide
an opportunity to the security establishment to once again undermine the
political process under the guise of upholding the ‘rule of law’, it
will not only be ordinary people who suffer for it, but also those who
claim to be defenders of the people’s interests. firstperson Tatiana Oranskaia holds
a Ph.D in Linguistics. She did her masters in Indian languages and
literature from Leningrad (Saint-Petersburg) University in 1973. She is
Professor, Department of Culture and History of India and Tibet,
University of Hamburg, Germany, and Vice-Chair since November 1999 till
present. She was Visiting Professor, Institute fur Kultur und Geschichte
Indiens und Tibets, Universitat Hamburg, Germany from October
1995-February 1996. She was Head of the Department of Indian Philology,
Oriental Faculty, Saint Petersburg University from May 1997-November 1998.
Oranskaia has contributed many articles and chapters in books published in
the last ten years. She is associated with Pakistan Study Centre and
History, University of Punjab and teaching research method in social
sciences. She was here for a three months (Sept –Dec 2011) assignment.
The News on Sunday had an opportunity to interview her. Excerpts follow: The News on Sunday (TNS):
Where and when were you born? Tatiana Oranskaia (TO):
In Leningrad, Soviet Union, nowadays the name of the city is Saint
Petersburg, the name of the country Russia. TNS: Would you share
your family background and earlier education with us? TO: My father was a
specialist in Iranian languages and cultures, an internationally renowned
scholar. He found the only Indo-Aryan language existing in Central Asia.
It has a very close relationship to Punjabi. Both my father and mother
were teaching in the 1950s at the University of Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Both
graduated from the University of Leningrad, faculty of oriental studies. I
also studied at this faculty, and my husband, and our daughter too. My
first real — not through books, but in reality — meeting with the
orient happened in Dushanbe, when I was six years old. I was fascinated by
this wonderful world, absolutely new to me. My father used to take me with
him to an elderly person from whom he was at that time collecting
linguistic data. My father always brought some sweetmeats for him, as this
person was especially fond of them. So was I; we understood each other
perfectly well, though I did not know Tajik and he did not know Russian
and there was a huge difference in age. TNS: Why did you choose
to become a specialist in South Asian studies? TO: It was an
acquaintance with Russian translations of tales and myths of South Asia
which I was reading during my schooldays that attracted me very strongly
to this region. TNS: Why did you become
a linguist? TO: Because language is
the decisive factor in our evolution as human beings. TNS: Which languages can
you speak and write? TO: I can speak
Hindustani, both its literary forms — Hindi and Urdu — English, German
and, of course, my mother tongue Russian. In the written form I also
understand Persian and Tajik, French, some other South Asian and European
languages. I also learned Sanskrit. TNS: How did you become
interested in Urdu and Hindi? TO: Because these are
the major languages of South Asia, both were and are part of the curricula
of the departments of South Asian studies all over the world. TNS: Some people say
Hindi and Urdu are basically one language with two scripts. Do you agree
with that? TO: Yes, they are
basically one language. It is most regrettable that the term Hindustani
has been, for political reasons, avoided since 1947. TNS: How did you become
interested in Pakistan? TO: Because it is a
specific culture, which, at the same time, has many things in common with
the traditional European and especially Russian culture. TNS: Why did you choose
the University of Punjab? TO: It is the oldest
university of Pakistan, with strong academic and teaching traditions. I
have colleagues here with whom we have been working together for several
years and who I hold in high esteem. I am most grateful to the dean of the
faculty of humanities, Prof. Dr. S. Qalb-i-Abid and the director of the
Centre for Pakistan Studies Dr. Massarrat Abid and of course the Higher
Education Commission of Pakistan for the wonderful opportunity to work
here. It is also most rewarding to work with students of this university. TNS: What are your plans
here? TO: I am teaching and
also carrying out a research. TNS: How do you look at
Pakistan’s future; its successes and failure? TO: There is a strong
feeling of being a Pakistani in the people of this country. There is an
understanding of the problems and a kind of a political culture which is
evident in different social groups, especially among students. If the love
for the country combined with a rational approach and readiness to help
the weaker ones overcome egoistical attitudes, Pakistan’s future is
bright. Otherwise, the country will fall a victim to the forces who are
not interested in its stability. I am happy to see that at the moment
relations between Pakistan and India are getting better. If the countries
of South Asia are allied with each other, this region will become a very
strong force playing a decisive role in the world economy and politics. TNS: How do you compare
the then Soviet education system with the present one? TO: At the level of the
primary and secondary and to some extent also tertiary education, it is
basically the same system, but there are also schools and colleges that
charge fees. Universities have low quotas for students who study for free,
most have to pay. In the Soviet system, education was free. Children and
young people were given certain knowledge and skills. This process was
controlled by the state, but the average educational level was to my mind
higher than at present. TNS: What are you
writing these days? TO: I have just finished
my part of editing work. We have finished a huge international project, a
volume on new Indo-Aryan languages, about 900 pages. It will be published
this year. It also contains three of my contributions. The next volume to
be edited is also an international project; its theme is hybridity
—-mixing up of social and cultural phenomena belonging to Western
traditions on the one hand and Asian and African, on the other hand.
However, at the moment I am especially interested in local cultural
traditions and language varieties. During my stay in Pakistan, I could
collect some extremely interesting data. This stay is beneficial for my
research and also enjoyable. TNS: How do you look at
the cultural history of South Asia? TO: South Asia presents
a unique case of cultural transmission during almost five thousand years.
In spite of a number of drastic changes, caused by historical and natural
factors, that in different ways transformed societies in different parts
of the subcontinent, there are astonishingly strong similarities in the
ways of life and thinking, ways of verbal expression, rites and rituals,
some of which can be traced back to the earliest known civilisation in
South Asia —– the Indus Valley civilisation. TNS: How do you see the
future of Punjabi language? TO: If the language of
politics does not change, by the end of the 21st century Punjabi will be
one of endangered languages. TNS: Have you read Urdu
literature and who impressed you most? TO: The greatest Urdu
poet is, of course, Mirza Asadullah Ghalib. He is a genius and one of the
greatest poets in world literature. It is regrettable that no translation
can give an idea of the depth and beauty of his poetry. Among the poets of
the 20th century Faiz Ahmad Faiz and among the prose writers of the late
20th century Qurrat-ul-Ain Haidar impress me. TNS: How do you look at
Pakistani scholarship? TO: There is a vast
knowledge that has not become accessible to the international academic
community yet. In connection with this question and also with reference to
your question about the future of the Punjabi language I would like to
comment on the use of English as the medium of tertiary education. Through
this language politics, the nation makes its education less effective and
loses bright scholars, because in order to think one needs to master the
language in which ideas are expressed. Young people should have an
opportunity to study in their mother tongue. Instead of succumbing to
hysterical demands to introduce English in all spheres of life it would be
useful to write good academic books and books of instruction in the
languages of Pakistan. See the language politics of China!
A
big challenge The State Bank of
Pakistan’s annual report 2010-2011, State of the Economy, portrays a
gloomy picture of overall economy of the country, which according to the
central bank, is expected to grow at the rate of 3 to 4 percent as against
government’s GDP growth target of 4.2 percent for the fiscal year
2011-12. The central bank’s’
annual report released at the juncture of political turmoil going on in
the country is considered to be a significant challenge for government’s
economic managers, who may have to make some tougher economic decisions to
control the dwindling economic situation of the country. On the one hand, the
country is facing acute energy crisis and price hike and on the other
hand, the government has failed to achieve most of the economic targets
during the first half of the year due to increasing fiscal deficit because
of rise in international oil prices and below target tax recovery. The multiple political
crises, bad governance and stoppage of US aid as well as Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) are some other significant factors, which have caused
further deterioration of the economy of the country. Due to growing military
tension with the US, Pakistan is unlikely to receive US$ 1250 million
expected to be received on account of Coalition Support Fund (CSF), for
which the present government had already made provisions in the budget.
The SBP report has cited some other reasons contributing to the dismal GDP
growth scenario, which included floods for two consecutive years and
absence of IMF programme. Senior economists say
the growing law and order situation in the country and absence of
investment are two main contributing factors for dismal economic growth.
Little progress on the auction of 3-G telecom licenses, which had been
budgeted to raise Rs 75 billion revenue in the fiscal year has also
contributed in the growing fiscal deficient, which the SBP projects
between 5.5 to 6.5 percent of GDP. “Pakistan’s average
GDP growth during the last four years is the lowest in the country’s
history,” says Dr. Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, a senior economist and
Chairman of Research Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance. Average GDP
growth rate in other developing countries is 3.5 to 4 times more than
Pakistan, that is 6.5 to 9.8 percent, he added. Dedicating a full
chapter on the energy the SBP report has pointed out that energy crisis in
the country is the main factor behind sluggish growth of economy in the
country. Quoting estimates from the Planning Commission that about 3-4
percent of GDP may have been lost because of power outages in the last
fiscal year, SBP the report said the power crisis has impacted on the
manufacturing sector. The large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector once
again suffered heavily because of energy crisis in the country. The growth
target for LSM was fixed at 4.9 percent for the fiscal year 2010-11, but
it remained only 1 percent. Despite the
government’s response to resolve energy shortfall by increasing
generation capacity through rental power projects (RPPs), releasing Rs 120
billion to resolve the interagency circular debt problem and increasing
electricity tariffs, the overall power situation remained largely
unchanged. The annual SBP report says that commissioning RPPs to increase
generation capacity was misplaced as Pakistan is operating well below its
installed capacity due to the circular debt problem. It also noted that
the government injected Rs 120 billion to restart the funding of furnace
oil May 2011, but the acute energy problems mostly went unaddressed. The government’s
economic managers would see an uphill task to improve the situation in the
coming days as the political government would be mainly reluctant to take
“unpopular measures” due to ensuing election year (2012). The
opposition parties are making new alliance to increase pressure on the
government to go for early elections and in such a situation it will be
hard for the government to make tough economic decisions. “The immediate
challenges before the government are IMF payments, soaring import bill due
to increase in oil prices and double digit inflation in the country,”
says Muzzamil Aslam, economist at JS Global Capital. The repayments on the
IMF’s US$ 8.9 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) will start this fiscal
year, with outflows of US$ 1.4 billion. He says although the SBP
report has pointed out resilience of the Pakistan economy because of
challenging economic conditions, the situation will be tough because of
political pressures. The inherent resilience of the agriculture sector
allowed it to post a bumper wheat crop in the Rabi season and sizable
production of minor crops (potato, onion, pulses, etc.) gave a respite to
the economy to some extent, the SBP Report says. Pakistan faced heavy
monsoon rains and floods in August 2011, which put a threat to agriculture
economy and economists were apprehending a negative impact on country’s
overall economy as well as on exports. But all apprehensions did not come
true. “Despite floods, growing oil prices and Dollar-Rupee disparity the
exports of the country have increased, Pakistan has achieved a positive
current account balance and inflation has remained under control,” he
tells TNS. There is still a big challenge for the government to achieve
all the economic targets set during the budget including containing
inflation or further reducing the interest rate, says Muzammil. The trade deficit has
also narrowed to US$ 10.5 billion, which was largely financed by strong
growth in worker remittances that reached a record US$ 11.2 billion, the
SBP report has pointed out. The report, however, has
shown concern over growing budget deficit, which is currently 6.6 percent
of GDP against the budget target of 4 percent. “Budget deficit might
have been risen to 7 percent had the government not reduced the spending
on health and education,” says Dr. Shahid Siddiqui. The SBP Report has
pointed out that financing of the fiscal deficit was, and still remains, a
challenging task for the government. “With a decline in external funding
following the suspension of the IMF Standby Arrangement (SBA), the
government had little choice but to rely increasingly on domestic
sources,” the report says. During FY11, the government borrowed Rs 1.1
trillion from domestic resources, which accounted for 91.0 percent of the
fiscal deficit,” it says. Low saving rate,
persistent high inflation rate, increase poverty as well as rise in gulf
between the rich and the poor in Pakistan are the main challenges for the
economic managers of the country to address. According to the SBP,
inflation is expected to be within the range of 11.5–12.5 percent during
the fiscal year 2011-12, which is broadly in line with the Annual Plan
target of 12 percent,’ the Report adds.
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While reassurances by the Army Chief and others have set minds at ease
that the men in khaki are unlikely to impose martial law in the ‘greater
national interest’, it is nonetheless very likely that a more subtle
method of ‘regime change’ is being crafted. And the Supreme Court
definitely features centrally in the proposals being floated within the
shadowy corridors of power where decisions about the long-suffering people
of this country are regularly made.
was
not ‘politicised’. It was as preposterous then as it is now to claim
that the highest court of the land is ‘apolitical’. Both in terms of
the cases that it decides to hear — or take up suo motu — and the
decisions that it makes, the Supreme Court has been, and will continue to
be, a major player in Pakistani politics.
