analysis
The continuing conundrum

The complex social and political makeup of Balochistan has hardly been given credence by policy makers, and hence a skewed approach has always been the hallmark of every Baloch policy
By Yaqoob Khan Bangash
In 1934, the Foreign Secretary of India decided to understand the constitution of Kalat State, which formed two-thirds of what is now the Balochistan province of Pakistan. After studying the topic for months, Weightman came to the conclusion that he was ‘confused’ and that the makeup of Kalat ‘seemed to defy any definition and was fated to arise controversy among those who attempted one...’ Almost eighty years to that minute, the successor to the British in that part of the world is as confused and as troubled by the province as the British were. Successive governments in Pakistan have tried to solve the Balochistan ‘problem’ but have been unable to do so. 

comment
Corrupt to the core

Corruption has become widespread and a major barrier to Pakistan’s growth and progress
By Alauddin Masood
Taking cognizance of widespread corruption, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has directed the federal hierarchy to cancel contracts of corrupt officials and take concrete measure to eliminate corruption in government offices. In a letter, the PM told the federal ministers and secretaries that since the menace of corruption is a hurdle in the way of serving the masses, so removal of this hurdle is the government’s top priority. He said: “The governance cannot be improved unless corruption, nepotism, inefficiency and conflict of interest are tackled upfront.” All upright and enlightened citizens would lend support to Nawaz Sharif in his endeavours to wipe out corruption from the country.
There cannot be two opinions about the fact that the scourge of corruption has become endemic. On June 28, 2013, while hearing a case pertaining to the utilisation of Rs42 billion in excess of the Prime Minister’s budgeted discretionary funds by Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had remarked: “Where ever we touch, springs of corruption sprout.” 

Our money, their banks
Instead of begging for bailout packages from donors, the government should bring back billions of untaxed dollars lying abroad
By Huzaima Bukhari & Dr. Ikramul Haq
Senate’s Standing Committee on Finance, in its non-binding recommendations sent to the National Assembly on June 21, 2013, specifically suggested exchange of information with Swiss government to unearth untaxed accounts of Pakistanis. It is common knowledge that no tax is paid by Pakistani residents on such accounts — though, under the law, they are bound to declare both Pakistan and foreign source income (total world income) and then claim exemption or credit on the doubly taxed income, if available.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has been seeking permission of the finance minister to negotiate new agreement with Switzerland for this purpose, but has failed to obtain it till today — a summary sent to Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh never got a response and now a fresh one is moved to Ishaq Dar. 

cost
Vicious circle

Paying huge circular debt to end energy crisis is a major step, but where is the money coming from?
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed
Nothing was more unexpected than the announcement made by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to do away with circular debt worth Rs503 billion in 60 days. He made this statement during the budget speech leaving many to wonder about the source of funding required to settle this huge amount. Another concern was why the government was bearing this burden when it could do with partial clearance of this debt in phases.
Weeks down the road, an amount of Rs322 has been cleared and the federal government is working on clearance of the remaining amount within a month or so. The payment was made after getting an approval from the Economic Coordination Committee and making the recipient Independent Power Producers (IPPs) agree to certain terms.
The payment formula is that the IPPs and others like PSO will be paid 60 per cent cash and the remaining 40 per cent through issuance of bonds. To ensure the circular debt does not build up at same pace, some preconditions were introduced and the recipients asked to agree to these terms.

Hard cash
The cash-strapped government has got another IMF bailout package to avoid a potential financial default
By Mazhar Khan Jadoon
Pakistan has once again approached the International Monetary Fund with a refurbished begging bowl to wriggle out of the economic mess at home. Breaking the begging bowl, economic sovereignty and self-reliance are pleasing slogans before every election, but once into the business of running a government with empty coffers, the bitter reality of loans and bailout packages take charge.
“The government of Pakistan and International Monetary Fund have reached an agreement for a three-year programme of at least 5.3 billion dollars under an extended fund facility,” said Finance Minister Ishaq Dar after concluding the deal on July 4, 2013.
“This is a Pakistan-designed programme. It includes bringing the fiscal deficit to a more sustainable level,” Jeffrey Franks, the regional adviser to the Fund on Pakistan, told reporters speaking alongside the Pakistani finance minister. The IMF expects Pakistan to reach a budget deficit target of six per cent of gross domestic product as part of its bailout loan programme, said Franks.

Being civilised
Proper investment in healthcare and education will help us create a ‘critical mass’ which will usher Pakistan into a new era, commensurate with the demands of the 21st century
By Tahir Kamran
“For any nation the measure of being civilized is the investment and care that it extends to its dispossessed and vulnerable, thus the United Kingdom is ranked among the top civilized nations in the world,” claimed Dr Rizwan Hassan, Anesthetist Consultant from Cambridge, while referring to the care and compassion given to autistic children by the state through the National Health Service.
Dr Hassan is a big advocate of ‘integrated care’ and vehemently argues in favour of the age-old adage “prevention is better than cure”. He is very good at drawing comparison between the healthcare system in Pakistan and the UK, to which he emigrated a quarter of a century ago. Any improvement in the dismal state of healthcare in Pakistan, he lamented, does not figure anywhere among the priorities of the ruling elite. Thus, fundamental human rights like education and healthcare are denied to the citizens by either privatising healthcare and education or neglecting them altogether.

change
Dictatorship strikes back

Morsi’s failures aside, there ought to be no room for military takeovers and plots against nascent democracies like Egypt
By Dr Syed Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi
The world has become an insecure place due to threats, instability and revolution-series emerging from the Middle East. Outside powers, in the past, remained eager to promote their interests but their policies intensified crises. They are using old thinking to solve new problems. They are trapped in a suffocating straitjacket. This encourages domestic un-elected forces to play with the popular choice, called democracy.
An episode of this is what happened recently in Egypt. A “revolution” to overthrow a democratically elected government, elected a year ago, by the national army is as far from simple as it is possible to get. Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, has been ousted from office just over a year into his presidency. Morsi was elected Egypt’s president in June 2012 after a campaign focused on appealing to the broadest possible audience. But he became increasingly authoritarian and forced through a conservative agenda during his year in power. Egypt today is ruled by an interim government backed by the military. 

Historical follies
Whether Pakistan is ready or not, a new historical perspective is likely to emerge soon after Nato forces withdraw from Afghanistan
By Helal Pasha
William Dalrymple, in his recent essay “A Deadly Triangle” published at the Brookings Institute, claimed, “The hostility between India and Pakistan lies at the heart of the current conflict in Afghanistan.” In his essay, he further claimed that the hostilities around the partition are the true source of the problems between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A review of the history brings out a different context to the assertion, as he is way off the mark in sourcing it to 1947.
The current Pak-Afghan relations are just a perpetuation of historical clashes that surfaced from the battles that Raja Ranjit Singh’s armies fought in the famous Battle of Jamrud in 1837. Afghanistan, at the same time, was under attack from the Persian forces supported by Russian advisors on its western borders around Herat. Then the great game started. In December 1838, the East India Company managed to take Quetta from Bolan Pass and attacked Afghanistan to forestall the alleged Russian advance into Afghanistan. The roots of the dispute emerged in 1837, rather than 1947.

 

analysis
The continuing conundrum
The complex social and political makeup of Balochistan has hardly been given credence by policy makers, and hence a skewed approach has always been the hallmark of every Baloch policy
By Yaqoob Khan Bangash

In 1934, the Foreign Secretary of India decided to understand the constitution of Kalat State, which formed two-thirds of what is now the Balochistan province of Pakistan. After studying the topic for months, Weightman came to the conclusion that he was ‘confused’ and that the makeup of Kalat ‘seemed to defy any definition and was fated to arise controversy among those who attempted one...’ Almost eighty years to that minute, the successor to the British in that part of the world is as confused and as troubled by the province as the British were. Successive governments in Pakistan have tried to solve the Balochistan ‘problem’ but have been unable to do so.

The last government launched a special initiative in November 2009, the Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan package, aimed at rehabilitating the province politically and economically. Broadly, this package included giving royalties owed to the province since 1951, filling in the 5.4 per cent quota already granted to Balochistan in federal jobs, release of political prisoners, and further constitutional devolution. Subsequently the 18th Constitutional Amendment gave further powers to the provinces in 2010, including Balochistan, meaning that there was no longer a concurrent list of subjects for federal legislation and that the provinces now got the bulk of federally collected taxes.                                                                 

Under the 7th National Finance Commission Award, also enacted under the previous government, Balochistan’s percentage share was nearly doubled to 9.09%. The Balochistan package was very well received and rather quickly implemented, so much so that by November 2011, the then prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gillani, was boasting that nearly 80 per cent of the package had already been implemented — in advance of the deadline.

The package also received a pat in the back by the recent caretaker government under the retired Justice from Balochistan, Hazar Khan Khoso, who presided over several meetings which monitored the good progress of the package. However, even with all these developments, President Zardari noted in a recent interview that he was ‘disappointed’ that the Baloch had not seized the moment and done enough for themselves.

So why is that despite so many constitutional, political and economic reforms, Balochistan still remains a conundrum? Why do so many ‘reform’ packages fail to lure the Baloch into the main stream of Pakistan? What is there that the government (be it the establishment, the political parties, or others) fail to grasp about the region?

One thing which is quite patent is that all policy makers, whether today or in the past, have consistently failed to understand the complicated nature of the province. The complex social and political makeup of the province has hardly been given credence by policy makers, and hence a skewed approach has always been the hallmark of every Balochistan policy. It is only after the peculiar social and political setup of Balochistan is understood that a concrete policy can be developed towards the province.

Secondly, there have scarcely been any attempts to address the historical roots of Baloch uneasiness and resistance towards Pakistan. The accession of Kalat to Pakistan in March 1948 is still mired in controversy and many a Baloch resistance narratives begin from that contested accession. Ignoring the history of the Baloch issue, therefore, prevents policy makers from really understanding the root cause of the unrest and insurgency.

First, therefore, we need to understand the social structure of Balochistan. A lot of development planning is conducted in Balochistan as if a large part of the province were settled area. In fact only a small proportion of the province is settled and of that an even smaller percentage is urban. A significant percentage of the population of Balochistan is nomadic (mainly Brahuis) and the rest are peasant cultivators. In both cases, the tribe is the main centre of authority, politically and economically.

In the Baloch and Brahui tribal structure, unlike that of the Pakhtuns, the office of the tribal chief reigns supreme. According to anthropologist Pehrson, for the Marri tribe for example, ‘The sardar is the central and unifying leader who, by his existence, creates the Marri tribe and who for formal purposes is regarded as the font of all legitimate power in the tribe.’ Therefore, the Baloch and Brahui society is extremely hierarchical, which gives great leverage to the tribal chief, who in effect orders the lives of the tribesmen.

Further describing this kind of authority, theorist Kapferer argues that in hierarchical societies, individuals and groups are seen to be incorporated within and determined by holistic principles. In those societies political (not religious) authority is the encompassing, unifying force which subsumes, orders, and makes whole, otherwise weak or destructive individuals and groups (quoted in Titus and Swidler).

Policy makers also need to understand the significance of nomadism in Baloch life and society. Even though the number of Baloch and Brahui who actually live the nomadic life might have declined in recent years, the ideal ‘Baloch’ lifestyle still remains deeply rooted in nomadism.

Anthropologist Spooner noted just a couple of decades ago that nomadism ‘is still thought of as the genuine Baloch life, which embodies the authentic Baloch virtues of honesty, loyalty, faith, hospitality, asylum for refugees, and so on’. Most of Baloch folklore, traditional songs, and cultural heritage is still centered around the nomadic lifestyle.

Interpreting Irons, anthropologists Titus and Swidler also maintain that nomadism ‘can be a political-military adaptation by weaker groups that have been marginalized or sought to avoid domination by more powerful settled groups, or conversely, nomads can themselves be the dominant political force in society.’ Surveying the history of the Baloch, with the state of Kalat always between empires, be it the Mughal, Safavid or Durrani, the nomadic lifestyle not only served a political purpose but also kept close social and political cohesion in the tribes.

We also need to understand the circumstances under which Balochistan (mainly the erstwhile state of Kalat) became a part of Pakistan. Without a clear grasp of the accession saga, one cannot really comprehend the roots of the current Baloch insurgency or event general Baloch malaise towards Pakistan.

In 1947, the parts of what is now called Balochistan which became a part of Pakistan were the Chagai district, Zhob agency and the Marri and Bugti areas. These were collectively called ‘British Balochistan’ and were under the charge of a chief commissioner. The rest of the current province was composed of the state of Kalat together with its feudatories of Kharan and Lasbela.

In 1947, Kalat was ruled by Mir Ahmed Yar Khan, who, since his accession in 1933, had been striving to achieve greater autonomy and independence for Kalat. However, the control of Ahmed Yar Khan over the state was not so simple as Kalat State was administered once like a feudal, federal and confederal state with tribal sardars wielding different levels of authority in different areas. The Political Department’s Col. Keyes’ description came close but even that explanation baffled officials. Col. Keyes had noted: ‘…Kalat is a multiple federal state and not a simple confederacy. In the niabats, both in Sarawan and Jhalawan and in Kachhi, the Khan was an autocratic ruler…while in the tribal territory he is head of a confederacy but even so holds a position higher than that of primus inter pares…’ This complication meant that any decision of the Khan could be easily challenged by other sardars and that sovereignty did not completely lay with the Khan, but was multilayered.

My forthcoming book deals with this topic in greater detail, but in brief, Kalat state wanted to remain independent (just like Kashmir, Travancore and Hyderabad), but ended up becoming a part of Pakistan after eight-month long negotiations, a threat of attack from Pakistan, and after a rumour that it had applied for accession to India.

However, considering the complex nature of the polity in the region, the accession document signed by the ruler, Ahmed Yar Khan, was almost immediately repudiated by large sections of the population. The Khan’s own younger brother, Prince Karim, raised the banner of revolt and led a band of about 500 men to the mountains of Afghanistan from where they waged small incursions into Balochistan till they were finally apprehended in July 1948.

Both Prince Karim, and Ghous Bakhsh Bizinjo, the leader of the Kalat State National Party and the leader of the House of Commons in Kalat State, decried the accession and claimed that the Khan had out stepped his authority as the leader of a confederacy and signed away the state without agreement of the various stakeholders.

Bizinjo, while addressing the lower house of the Kalat parliament in December 1947 on the question of accession, poignantly raised a critical question. He noted: ‘We have a distinct civilization. We have a separate culture like that of Iran and Afghanistan. We are Muslims but it is not necessary that by virtue of our being Muslims we should lose our freedom and merge with others. If the mere fact that we are Muslims requires us to join Pakistan then Afghanistan and Iran, both Muslim countries, should also amalgamate with Pakistan…We are ready to have friendship with that country on the basis of sovereign equality but by no means [are we] ready to merge with Pakistan…We can survive without Pakistan.’ Since then the banner of revolt has been raised in almost every decade, in 1958, 1963-7, 1973-7, and now since late 2005.

So how does the above help us, and especially the policy maker?

The above précis on the social structure of the Baloch and Brahui and the historical context of the insurgency primarily show that this is not an easy problem which can be dealt with by throwing money at it, as has happened several times in the past. The problems Balochistan faces are deep and complicated and will take more than a ‘package’ to address.

First, Pakistani policy needs to be formulated keeping in mind the social structure of the Baloch and Brahui society. So either the tribal leader needs to be completely onboard, or needs to be completely removed from his strong tribal role. Any midway role, hallmark of Pakistani government policy to date, will simply not work and will, in effect, exacerbate the problem as seen in the case of Nawab Akbar Bugti who was variously a Baloch nationalist and a government servant several times. So the long term choice for the government of Pakistan is to either perpetuate the current social framework in Balochistan or intervene decisively to alter it. The results of either policy are self-evident.

Secondly, the legacy of the challenged accession needs to be addressed honestly and openly. Historically, Pakistan has refused to revisit the question of accession and Baloch insurgents have repeatedly started their narrative from it. Therefore, unless this historical cause of Baloch unrest is addressed the issue will remain unresolved.

Quite obviously, open ended talks and an end to aggression on both sides is the simplest way forward. The talks might result in Balochistan settling for a more autonomous federal arrangement with Pakistan, but if this is the price of keeping Balochistan in the federation and the people there in peace, then it is not a high price to pay. After all the linguistic groups in Belgium keep getting more and more autonomy and still remain in one country, and the same is the case in Canada.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has made a very wise move in not forming a PML-N led government in Balochistan. Allowing a non-tribal head as chief minister and a Pashtun as governor will give them a chance to run their own affairs. However, what he must be careful about is whether the choice of the first non-tribal elder as chief minister is going to be simply window dressing or is it going to lead to some positive changes in the centuries old social organisation of the province.

Also, important to note will be how the new provincial and federal governments are going to deal with the young band of insurgents who have given up on the state of Pakistan. Bringing them to the negotiating table will involve clearly accepting the wrongs of the past (including the contested accession) and a complete and real end to military operations against them.

Balochistan is a very complicated region which is now increasingly an area of international interest. Several countries have strategic interest in the area, especially the United States, the United Kingdom, Afghanistan, Iran, India, China and the UAE, and especially now since the Chinese are developing the Gwadar deep sea port, which could potentially host the Chinese navy thereby threatening both the commercial hegemony of the Gulf states and the military presence of the United States and its allies in the Arabian sea.

More so than the rest of Pakistan, Balochistan is at a crossroads, and therefore informed yet courageous decisions need to be taken by all sides if we are to see a peaceful solution of the problem for the betterment of all.

The writer is the Chairperson of the Department of History, Forman Christian College, and tweets at @BangashYK
 

 

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Corrupt to the core
Corruption has become widespread and a major barrier to Pakistan’s growth and progress
By Alauddin Masood

Taking cognizance of widespread corruption, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has directed the federal hierarchy to cancel contracts of corrupt officials and take concrete measure to eliminate corruption in government offices. In a letter, the PM told the federal ministers and secretaries that since the menace of corruption is a hurdle in the way of serving the masses, so removal of this hurdle is the government’s top priority. He said: “The governance cannot be improved unless corruption, nepotism, inefficiency and conflict of interest are tackled upfront.” All upright and enlightened citizens would lend support to Nawaz Sharif in his endeavours to wipe out corruption from the country.

There cannot be two opinions about the fact that the scourge of corruption has become endemic. On June 28, 2013, while hearing a case pertaining to the utilisation of Rs42 billion in excess of the Prime Minister’s budgeted discretionary funds by Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had remarked: “Where ever we touch, springs of corruption sprout.” Money was provided to those who were to contest election and they even devoured the pension funds of the poor people, he added. Attorney General Munir A. Malik informed the court that Raja Ashraf had violated the Planning Commission’s rules and regulations by releasing unbudgeted development funds.

A sampling of some more mega cases of corruption recently carried by The News has been reproduced below to enable the readers to assess its dimension and various forms. Reportedly, more trouble awaits Raja Ashraf who lifted the ban on cutting of trees in Gilgit-Baltistan, on his last day in office, causing a loss of eight billion rupees to the national exchequer and irreparable damage to the environment.

CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry has taken notice of corruption cases of more than Rs40 billion in the Employees Old Age Benefit Institute during the last three years. Meanwhile, a new enquiry report has revealed that the amount of national money looted through stock manipulation, illegal issuance of CNG licences and massive gas theft has crossed the threshold of Rs100 billion.

In an apparent move to hide corruption involving billions of rupees and to protect thousands of ghost schools throughout the country, head of Basic Education Community Schools has forewarned his staff about raids by third party validation teams, hired by the federal government to detect ghost schools, which number in thousands.

There was corruption from the office of the Patwari up to the top offices but no system could be established to bring an end to the menace, stated Peshawar High Court Chief Justice Dost Muhammad Khan on June 29, 2013. “There must be a constitutional body that could keep a check on corruption by everyone, including the president and premier,” he stressed.

Corruption is a bane, which afflicts all societies. It is neither so benign in underdeveloped world nor it is so rare in advanced countries. However, it is perceived to be more widespread in third world countries, particularly in states where official business is conducted under the cover of secrecy and officials enjoy wide discretionary powers.

The history of corruption is, however, as old as the history of human civilization. It was a serious problem even in the Biblical and classical times, and was found in most periods of history. In his will, Alexander the Great advised that his hands be kept out of his coffin so that the people could see that he was going empty-handed from the world. This has many lessons for the wise, but an overwhelming majority, it seems, in their pursuit of wealth forget that they have also to leave their earthly abode empty handed.

However, history is replete with benign rulers who could control corrupt practices. For example, vices like hoarding, adulteration, manipulating prices etcetera did not exist during Alauddin Khilji’s rule. Deterrent punishment, coupled with an efficient system of monitoring and creating awareness about severe punishment, refrained people from indulging in these vices not only during the Khilji rule but for about 150 years thereafter although the punishment was actually awarded to only three persons during Khilji’s rule.

As regards Pakistan, the country inherited corruption from the colonial rule, impelling Quaid-e-Azam to describe it as “one of the biggest curses from which India is suffering,” and exhorting legislators, in his maiden address to Pakistan’s constituent assembly on August 11, 1947, to put it down with an iron hand. But, like a cancerous wound, the vice of corruption has been constantly rising in this country over the last decades, in particular following the 1958 events. It has now become widespread and a major barrier to Pakistan’s growth and progress.

In addition to financial corruption, other major forms of corruption practiced here include: misuse of authority, grant of liberal perks to the elite and top bureaucracy, nepotism, favouritism, bending rules to favour cronies, deviation from standard norms and procedures, attempts at thwarting the process of law and justice in cases affecting the oligarchs, extending patronage to crony businessmen indulging in malpractices and, above all, misuse of discretionary powers.

In the past also, the authorities have been taking steps to curb corruption. The transformation of Special Police Establishment into Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in the mid-1970s, and the establishment of National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in the 1990s bear testimony to the existence of the problem and the government’s half-hearted endeavours to root it out. But, the vice of corruption continued to spread and it has now reached a stage where one could not get even his legitimate jobs done without paying “facilitation charges” — a refined name for bribe money.

The growth of government activity and regulations in the modern state increases the opportunities and the temptations for corruption. Improvements in education need not lead to the elimination of corruption but to its perpetuation in new and sophisticated forms. One of the perceived pre-requisites of good governance is transparency in administration and, in fact, in public life as a whole.

If the governance is conducted openly, the government can afford transparency in most of its activities. It is now universally agreed that the more the transparency the less the corruption.

On the other hand, corruption inhibits good governance. It undermines economic development, stunts growth, fuels poverty and creates political instability. No nation can develop to its full capacity or realise its full potential in any field if its social system is plagued by corruption and inefficiency. Corruption not only causes a severe drain on the national economy, it also acts as a major disincentive to foreign investment.

Generous allocation of vehicles to state minions, starting from 1970s, introduced another element of corruption. In most of the developed countries, prime ministers and cabinet ministers are allocated only one limousine each for official use strictly. Though this has been the norm in Pakistan prior to 1970, now sky seems to be the limit for some holders of public offices who retain several dozen of official vehicles in their fleet.

When Ch Muhammad Ali was prime minister his wife used to cook food herself. The number of domestic employees available to his successors in office is more than two hundred. President Ayub Khan felt quite comfortable travelling by PIA’s commercial flights. Now, there are more than 14 planes for the exclusive use of the President, Prime Minister, Governors and Chief Ministers, who enjoy rides in these aircrafts without any distinction of official or private use. Furthermore, there is no mechanism to combat corruption at top levels. Muhammad Khan Junejo (1985-88) stands tall amongst the PMs for having sacked four cabinet ministers on charges of corruption.

Cognizant of the ill-effects of corruption, a majority of top leaders, on assumption of public offices, vowed to eradicate the scourge. Even despot General Pervez Musharraf had expressed his determination to eradicate corruption by addressing its causes and not just the symptoms. But, NAB’s founding Chairman Lt. General Syed Muhammad Amjad was given a new assignment when he decided to investigate six major defence deals. Amjad’s close circles reportedly claimed that he had enough documentary evidence to launch probe against at least 20 retired senior officials, including three former chiefs of army staff, two naval chiefs and an air force chief in purchase of tanks, submarines, naval mine hunters, mirage fighters and jeeps. The message was loud and clear that the army ruler was there to conduct accountability of civilians and that the forces should never be held accountable for anything.

Following terrorist attack on Frenchmen, in 2002, in Karachi, foreign media carried reports suggesting that the contract for construction of Agosta submarines in Pakistan involved payment of $60 million in commission to Pakistan’s four top naval officers. French newspaper Le Monde (May 11, 2002), an unofficial mouthpiece for the French Socialist Party, claimed that part of the “bribe payment” went to the brother and spouse of the then prime minister. Contrary to the former prime minister’s relatives, the daily noted, Admiral Mansurul Haq decided, in February, 2001, to reimburse $6.2 million to Pakistan. But, Admiral Haq was not the top man in the Navy at the time the transaction took place. The names of other three top naval officers, who allegedly received commission in the award of contract for Agosta submarines, have not been made public so far.

The masses have “herds” instinct — they follow leaders. Darvaish scholar Shaqiq Bulkhi tried to convey this to Abbaside Caliph Haroon-ur Rashid, saying that a ruler was like a spring of water and state officials like water channels flowing out from that spring. If water in the spring (main source) was not sweet how could it be sweet in the canals? If the water in the spring was sweet then it could not be brackish in canals.

In other words, if top leaders observe merit, honesty, austerity, etcetera, and refrain from corruption and corrupt practices these virtues would automatically trickle down and the masses would adopt them willingly, believing these to be the traits of great people.

The writer is a freelance columnist based at Islamabad. alauddinmasood@gmail.com

 

Our money, their banks
Instead of begging for bailout packages from donors, the government should bring back billions of untaxed dollars lying abroad
By Huzaima Bukhari & Dr. Ikramul Haq

Senate’s Standing Committee on Finance, in its non-binding recommendations sent to the National Assembly on June 21, 2013, specifically suggested exchange of information with Swiss government to unearth untaxed accounts of Pakistanis. It is common knowledge that no tax is paid by Pakistani residents on such accounts — though, under the law, they are bound to declare both Pakistan and foreign source income (total world income) and then claim exemption or credit on the doubly taxed income, if available.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has been seeking permission of the finance minister to negotiate new agreement with Switzerland for this purpose, but has failed to obtain it till today — a summary sent to Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh never got a response and now a fresh one is moved to Ishaq Dar.

A news published in The Times of India of June 21, 2013, says that “when it comes to money in Swiss banks, Pakistan has a slight edge over India with total funds amounting to 1,441 million Swiss francs [Rs1.52 trillion] held there by Pakistani individuals and entities. However, this was the lowest level for such funds ever since Switzerland’s Central Bank began compiling this data in 2002 and was less than half of the record high amount of over 3 billion Swiss francs [Rs4.18 trillion] recorded in 2005. The previous record low of 1.95 billion Swiss francs [Rs2.06 trillion] was seen in the year 2010. In their local currency, the total funds held by individuals and entities from Pakistan in Swiss banks stood at over Rs1.5 trillion as on December 31, 2012”.

It was further revealed in the report that this marked a decline of nearly 32 per cent from 2,119 million Swiss francs (Rs2.32 trillion) at the end of 2011. The issue of alleged stashing of black money in Swiss banks has been a matter of intense debate in Pakistan, as there have been reports of some top former government leaders having kept their money in banks in the European country due to their hugely popular ‘safe-haven’ status. However, a higher amount than Indian entities, assumes significance because Pakistan is a much smaller country in terms of population and area. Still, the quantum of money held by Swiss banks for their Pakistani clients was about 1.5 per cent higher than the equivalent figure for Indians at 1,421 million Swiss francs at the end of 2012, the latest data compiled by Swiss National Bank (SNB) shows.

The report is shocking — confirming that our tax evaders have larger funds than Indians in Switzerland alone. If we add Dubai and other such centres where the rich and mighty have been shifting billions, the figure would be horrendously large — many times what is lying in Switzerland. It is not a matter of a few billions — the amount is at least ten times the collection of FBR. On the one hand, the government is begging before the IMF for further loan and imposing regressive taxes on the poor and on the other, there is no political will to tax the accounts held in Switzerland and elsewhere by our tax cheats [Of assets disclosures and transparency, The News, December 12, 2011].

While the government has rejected the recommendation of Senate to seek assistance of foreign governments in taxing accounts of Pakistanis with them as done by India and other countries, the Finance Act 2013 passed by the National Assembly on June 27, 2013 has given powers to the FBR to access all bank accounts within Pakistan. Such powers have been held by the Senate Finance Committee as “too intrusive, against privacy of individuals and is prone to abuse and misuse.”

The Senate committee is of the view that “since the FBR is itself susceptible to corruption, as stated by Chief Justice of Pakistan, it will likely lead to loss of confidence of Pakistani people in their own banks, almost similar loss of confidence is suffered due to seizure of foreign currency accounts after the 1998 nuclear tests.”

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar did not accept the recommendation of Senate to withdraw changes in the Income Tax Law giving powers to the FBR to access information of account holders held with local banks. He says the information will be confined to Chairman and members of the FBR and not to be shared with staff. If it will not be shared with the field staff, then what could be the purpose of having such powers? Apparently, the only purpose then would be to blackmail political opponents or big fish. It will certainly lead to more flight of capital.

It is strange that the government wants complete access over local account holders but is not ready to get similar information for accounts lying outside which are depriving the national exchequer of billions of rupees in taxes. All responsible governments in the world have, in recent years, shown commitment to retrieve looted money or funds kept by their citizens in tax havens. But in Pakistan, the PPP-led government, during its five-year tenure (2008-2013), acted as the main stumbling block to any such move. Now the PML-N government has also shown unwillingness to tax trillions kept by Pakistanis abroad — these were not offered for tax and their sources are obviously dubious.

The issue of tax avoidance by keeping accounts in tax havens has become a highly charged political issue in the world. Across much of Europe, rich northern countries are increasingly fed up with demands for bailout money from heavily indebted countries like Greece. A key demand of a recent bailout deal announced for Cyprus was that the nation drastically shrinks its role as a financial center and, many in Germany suspect, a haven for money laundering. In Pakistan’s case, we are begging for bailout from the IMF while billions of untaxed dollars are lying abroad. We should bring them back by taking tough measures after giving option of whitening them at the rate of 15-25 per cent voluntarily. If it works we would need no further loans from the IMF or local banks.

People in Pakistan ask why they should file tax returns when their president, prime minister, ministers, governors and elected representatives pay no or meagre taxes. President Zardari, before his election on September 6, 2008, got $60 million unfrozen in Switzerland, and now his case is barred by time. He did not bother to tell the nation how much tax was paid on this collossal money and why it was lying abroad. Before taking the oath of president’s office, he did not declare his assets and liabilities with evidence of payment of taxes where due. The same stands true for all the leading politicians, including Mian Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif.

We have written time and again in these columns that tax culture in Pakistan will never take roots unless tax and asset declarations of all the mighty segments of society — politicians, high-ranking military and civilian officials, judges and all public office holders — are made public. There should be a public campaign that absentee landlords, most of whom are members of the parliament, should reveal their tax declarations.

All the judges, high-ranking public servants, including serving and retired generals, should also be required, under the law, to make public their assets and tax declarations on annual basis. Any person who is a tax delinquent should be debarred from contesting elections. All kinds of exemptions and concessions provided under various tax codes should be withdrawn.

The writers, tax lawyers, are members Adjunct Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)

cost
Vicious circle
Paying huge circular debt to end energy crisis is a major step, but where is the money coming from?
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

Nothing was more unexpected than the announcement made by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to do away with circular debt worth Rs503 billion in 60 days. He made this statement during the budget speech leaving many to wonder about the source of funding required to settle this huge amount. Another concern was why the government was bearing this burden when it could do with partial clearance of this debt in phases.

Weeks down the road, an amount of Rs322 has been cleared and the federal government is working on clearance of the remaining amount within a month or so. The payment was made after getting an approval from the Economic Coordination Committee and making the recipient Independent Power Producers (IPPs) agree to certain terms.

The payment formula is that the IPPs and others like PSO will be paid 60 per cent cash and the remaining 40 per cent through issuance of bonds. To ensure the circular debt does not build up at same pace, some preconditions were introduced and the recipients asked to agree to these terms.

These terms included optimal utilisation of available capacity by IPPs, commitment from four IPPs for conversion to coal within a stipulated time, reduction in IPPs’ interest rate on receivables by two per cent and increase in IPPs’ credit period from 30-45 days to 60 days.

The question that arises here is that if the solution was so simple and the funding readily available, why did not the outgoing government go for these options? Besides, what is the exact source of the funds required to clear this circular debt and what will be the financial cost the government is going to bear on this account? Are there any long term measures as well to check future build-up of circular debt.

The finance minister was asked such questions a couple of times but he did not come out with an exact answer, especially on the source of funds generation. He, however, vehemently denied any plans to print currency notes without matching reserves to pay off circular debt.

He has also said the Rs40 billion they are planning to save by cuts in government expenses may be used for this purpose. The frozen secret funds of different departments and the discretionary funds of the prime minister were also hinted at as the financial resources which the government could exploit to settle circular debt.

Leading economist, former finance minister and deputy chairman Planning Commission, Dr Hafeez Pasha, has an answer to this riddle. He tells TNS the government has borrowed from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) by selling treasury bills to it at the rate of 10 per cent per annum. The federal government always has the option to sell treasury bonds to SBP and commercial banks to raise money whereas provinces can take overdrafts up to a certain limit to meet financial needs, he adds.

Pasha says unfortunately the SBP has started hiding information lately, a proof of which is that it has updated loan figures up to June 21, 2013. The said amount was borrowed after this date and the details of this amount should have been there, he adds.

Pasha refers to budget 2013-14 and shares it with TNS that the federal government has mentioned its plans in the “Current Investments” section of this document. It states the government would settle circular debt worth Rs326 billion in revised 2012-13 budget and Rs168.8 billion in 2013-14 budget.

On the burden under repayment of the borrowed amount, he says the government can either pay back the amount or get it rolled over for another year on the payment of 10 per cent. Putting it simply, the financial cost of using Rs 500billion for a year would be Rs 50billion. The SBP would have no issue with extension of loan period on receiving the interest amount, he adds.

Apart from payment in cash, the government is going to issue bonds to Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) and Pakistan State Oil (PSO) etc. In the second phase, the federal government may go for adjustment of a major part of the remaining circular debt against receivables pending with the organisations seeking clearance of their dues.

Energy expert and advisor at Sustainable Policy Development Institute (SDPI) Islamabad, Arshad Abbasi, has serious reservations against payment of circular debt without technical audit of IPPs. He says these IPPs are themselves responsible for the building of circular debt caused due to huge difference between cost and sale price. Explaining his point, he says ideally the efficiency rate of an IPP should be around 50 to 60 per cent but in Pakistan IPPs are working at an efficiency rate as low as 20 per cent.

This, he says, means the same amount of fuel is required to produce 50 to 60 units at an efficient plant and 20 units at an inefficient one. “It’s a strange thing that different IPPs quote different per unit rates in their invoices and the government pays them off without questioning them.”

His point is that the differential in production and selling price has increased more due to this efficiency than anything else including power theft and government subsidies. The cost of generation will have to be brought down by switching to cheaper fuel as well as making IPPs bear the cost of their inefficiency.

Abbasi doubts it was on the pressure of some IPP owners close to the Nawaz government that this huge amount was cleared without delay.

 

Hard cash
The cash-strapped government has got another IMF bailout package to avoid a potential financial default
By Mazhar Khan Jadoon

Pakistan has once again approached the International Monetary Fund with a refurbished begging bowl to wriggle out of the economic mess at home. Breaking the begging bowl, economic sovereignty and self-reliance are pleasing slogans before every election, but once into the business of running a government with empty coffers, the bitter reality of loans and bailout packages take charge.

“The government of Pakistan and International Monetary Fund have reached an agreement for a three-year programme of at least 5.3 billion dollars under an extended fund facility,” said Finance Minister Ishaq Dar after concluding the deal on July 4, 2013.

“This is a Pakistan-designed programme. It includes bringing the fiscal deficit to a more sustainable level,” Jeffrey Franks, the regional adviser to the Fund on Pakistan, told reporters speaking alongside the Pakistani finance minister. The IMF expects Pakistan to reach a budget deficit target of six per cent of gross domestic product as part of its bailout loan programme, said Franks.

Dar said there was no option but request the loan to save Pakistan from defaulting. “We have not carried the begging bowl in our hands nor are we getting a grant, Pakistan is a member of the IMF,” Dar said.

Despite Dar’s rhetoric that the government has negotiated on its own term, Pakistan has conceded to all the IMF’s conditions to stave off a potential financial default. International donors like IMF always link bailout packages with certain reforms that they think can overhaul the broken economy. Generally, all the governments in Pakistan — dictators and civilians alike — conveniently push the proposed reforms under the carpet once they get the money. Besides, the lenders also make it sure that they will get back their money and keep the recipients from committing any default.

The country’s economic team, led by the finance minister, had held weeks-long tough deliberation with the IMF delegation to sort out details of the programme. The Pakistani financial managers were desperate to win over the IMF team at all costs because agreement with the Fund means more easy money coming their way. In addition to the $5.3billion IMF package, Pakistan will likely get a $5.6bn loan from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank as well as countries like Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. The total volume of the loan that Pakistan hopes to bag will be around $11bn — an amount that can resuscitate the dying economy if utilised properly.

The IMF wants the government to reduce the fiscal deficit over three years. The target has been left for Islamabad to decide if it wants to do it through widening the tax net, reduction in expenditures or withdrawal of subsidies and tax exemptions.

Retiring huge circular debt to contain energy crisis was a gigantic task and the urgency to strike a deal with the IMF also highlights the crunch at Pakistan’s foreign reserves — central bank has only about $6.25 billion left in reserves, enough to cover less than six weeks of imports. The IMF loan at this moment seems to be a life-saving dose for Pakistan’s economy.

Why does every government go to the IMF for bailout packages in the first place? “Generally, when the incompetent government fails to formulate appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to run its economic activities and cannot control its balance of payments and balance of trade, then such financial crises emerge,” says economist Dr Asmatullah Khan. “Such countries are always facing shortages of finances. Consequently, they approach the IMF to cope with their deficit financing.”

People generally are not comfortable with their elected representatives doing the IMF bidding at their cost. Are the IMF conditions to end subsidies and impose more taxes justified? “Yes, these conditions are very legitimate. The government should have done all these reforms on its own,” says Dr Ishrat Hussain, former governor of State Bank of Pakistan, while talking to TNS.

Dr Ishrat Hussain thinks the government has no other option at the moment, but to get the IMF bailout. “The government needs to put its house in order if the rulers want to avoid the donors’ dictations and pressures. Economic self-reliance is only possible if the government widens its tax base, tax the rich and mighty landlords and introduce tax reforms.”

However, Dr Khan’s viewpoint sounds more popular, but unrealistic at the same time as far as more taxes are concerned. According to him the 2013 budget has already made living worse by further increasing the miseries of the poor people and salaried class. “Therefore, elimination of subsidies and imposing more taxes is never justified and will definitely initiate political turmoil and, perhaps, it is the utmost agenda of the IMF to destabilise Pakistan further.” Dr Khan substantiates his arguments, saying, “Taxes are imposed but at reciprocal basis. People are facilitated in terms of better and cheap health services, free education, peace and security and provision of basic needs. Do we have all these facilities available to the common people? If not, then how the government will justify its action of imposing more taxes in such grim circumstances.”

What alternatives the governments have, if there is no loan? Dr Hussain says the government should narrow down its fiscal deficit by scaling down different subsidies that cost the kitty billions of rupees. “Tax reforms and prudent fiscal policies can help the government achieve economic stability without foreign help.”

Dr Khan seconds Dr Hussain, saying, “We do not need bailout packages if only the looted money is recovered and landlords, industrialists and business class are justifiably taxed.” He says there are countries which are surviving without loans. “Iran is developing its economy despite economic sanctions. Devotion, sincerity, honesty and fair planning are the only remedy to bail this country out of all such difficulties.”

“Programme or no programme, we shall not impose further taxes. We have rejected the IMF’s proposal for imposition of more taxes,” Ishaq Dar told the parliamentarians recently, and went on to confirm that if the lender did not accept the PML-N’s economic roadmap, a contingency plan-B was ready to shore up foreign exchange reserves and improve revenue collection by reducing tax theft and widening the tax base.

Financial experts believe tax exemptions are one of the problems hitting the economy hard, suggesting that such exemptions through Statutory Regulatory Orders (SROs) should be done away with. Unconvinced by the fiscal and economic projections and the expected outcomes, the IMF mission also wants a reduction in development spending (which was increased 50 per cent under the PML-N’s first federal budget) and more taxes to limit the fiscal deficit, according to media reports.

“Pakistan is an agricultural country and is quite rich in natural resources and cheap labour. Almost the whole country is replete with every kind of deposits of minerals and valuable resources. But poor governance, weak planning, open corruption, lack of research and outflow of capital from the country have made the country financially paralysed,” says Dr Asmatullah Khan. “Smuggling and lack of economic emancipation are other obstacles in the way of self-reliance. Return of the looted money and recovery of the national wealth from the corrupt mafia could be another step towards economic sovereignty.”

 

Being civilised
Proper investment in healthcare and education will help us create a ‘critical mass’ which will usher Pakistan into a new era, commensurate with the demands of the 21st century
By Tahir Kamran

“For any nation the measure of being civilized is the investment and care that it extends to its dispossessed and vulnerable, thus the United Kingdom is ranked among the top civilized nations in the world,” claimed Dr Rizwan Hassan, Anesthetist Consultant from Cambridge, while referring to the care and compassion given to autistic children by the state through the National Health Service.

Dr Hassan is a big advocate of ‘integrated care’ and vehemently argues in favour of the age-old adage “prevention is better than cure”. He is very good at drawing comparison between the healthcare system in Pakistan and the UK, to which he emigrated a quarter of a century ago. Any improvement in the dismal state of healthcare in Pakistan, he lamented, does not figure anywhere among the priorities of the ruling elite. Thus, fundamental human rights like education and healthcare are denied to the citizens by either privatising healthcare and education or neglecting them altogether.

Ironically, the Pakistani ruling elite exhibits a nonchalance that reeks of an utter ruthlessness towards education and healthcare because it does not have any stake in institutions intended to cater to the needs of the general citizenry. It now sounds more like a cliché to state that their kids go abroad for education and if anyone of them falls sick, he/she is whisked off to the developed world for medical treatment. Insouciance in redressing medical ‘vulnerability’ is reflected in the absence of any concrete plan or policy of the government. All said and done, the state, being represented solely by the elite, has absolved itself of the responsibility of providing these essential amenities to the people.

The vulnerable, to whom Dr Hassan referred, are children with some deformity. However, ‘vulnerability’ ostensibly has myriad forms, multiple manifestations but more often than not, its context is social. In the welfare-state system, an elaborate system of social welfare is devised, whereby education and healthcare assume the top slot in the list of priorities of the government. Dr. Hassan emphasized the primacy of ‘hygiene’ that holds importance in any practicable health policy. The availability of clean water, exercising quality control over edible items, eradicating the causes spawning toxic gases which are injurious to health and inculcating social awareness among the populace about cleanliness, serve as anchoring features for the movement to create a hygienic environment.

Along with these social factors, scientific techniques of childcare and immunisation programmes, such as administering preventive shots to kids, are equally important. Mercifully, Pakistan has made some headway in that direction but still a lot more is needed. In order to ensure prevention, the field of community medicine, Dr Hassan asserted, is very vital in the present day discourse on health. Community medicine is concerned with the health of the members of a community, municipality, or region.

The emphasis in that branch of medicine is on the early diagnosis of disease and, more importantly, the recognition of environmental and occupational hazards to good health, and the prevention of disease in the community. Thus, the issue of health is embedded in the social ethos of any community. The realisation of its importance is vital for the prevention of physical vulnerability in Pakistan.

In light of Dr Hassan’s prognosis, one feels the need of a radical shift in the health policy in Pakistan. In order to catch up with the systems of healthcare available in the developed world, the policy of focusing entirely on hospitals and the provision and manufacture of drugs needs to be subjected to a drastic review, adopting the approach of ‘integrated care’. Some equilibrium must be struck between the prevention and the cure through medical treatment at hospitals. ‘Health inequality’ is another hazard, which requires the attention of those sitting at the helm. An undertaking is required to provide equitable health facilities to all citizens.

The sharp divide between rural and urban, rich and poor, needs to be bridged. Better incentives for young doctors that induce them to go to distant villages and serve for a stipulated period of time should be introduced. It should be made obligatory not only for doctors, but also for teachers to serve in ‘hard areas’.

The focus should be shifted from populist measures, which may secure an election victory but don’t ameliorate the lot of the general citizenry, to people’s welfare. Initiatives such as the raising of awareness among the populace about ‘hygiene’ and instructing them about social factors causing ailments may not yield immediate results, but they will bring enduring benefits to the general masses of Pakistan.

We must be mindful of the fact that only healthcare and education will help us create a ‘critical mass’ which will usher us into a new era, commensurate with the demands of the 21st century. Research in social history reveals that modern nations are forged through education and healthcare. Thus optimum energy and resources must be invested in these areas.

 

 

change
Dictatorship strikes back
Morsi’s failures aside, there ought to be no room for military takeovers and plots against nascent democracies like Egypt
By Dr Syed Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi

The world has become an insecure place due to threats, instability and revolution-series emerging from the Middle East. Outside powers, in the past, remained eager to promote their interests but their policies intensified crises. They are using old thinking to solve new problems. They are trapped in a suffocating straitjacket. This encourages domestic un-elected forces to play with the popular choice, called democracy.  

An episode of this is what happened recently in Egypt. A “revolution” to overthrow a democratically elected government, elected a year ago, by the national army is as far from simple as it is possible to get. Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, has been ousted from office just over a year into his presidency. Morsi was elected Egypt’s president in June 2012 after a campaign focused on appealing to the broadest possible audience. But he became increasingly authoritarian and forced through a conservative agenda during his year in power. Egypt today is ruled by an interim government backed by the military.

Ex-president Morsi appears to have been responsible for his shortsightedness and apolitical schemes. Elected by 52 per cent majority in general elections, Morsi failed to keep the nation united. He also failed to tackle national economy which was already in a shambles.

As we know that a substantial and strong secular minority resides in Egypt, there was no improvement in the security environment and his government was perceived to have been pursuing an Islamist agenda to the exclusion of all others. Among the causes for people’s displeasure over his rule are lack of security, rising food prices, long fuel lines, and frequent electricity cuts during the scorching Egyptian summer. Over and above, Morsi lacked charisma and oratorical skills, and at the same time he hadn’t been able to back his orders with a stick in the same way that Mubarak and his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, did in the past.

Although the country’s deficit had fallen and tourism revenue had slightly improved over the past year, the effects were not being felt by the people on the street. This all lashed back.  

Keeping Morsi’s list of failures, one feels that Egypt is still passing through revolutions. First it was against Hosni Mubarak, which successfully culminated in its achievements and can be termed “revolutionary moment”. Then it was against the military establishment which resulted in the rise of the voice of the people and Muhammad Morsi rose to the occasion. This can be termed as “change moment”. Later, it was the constitution. With demonstrations and huge protests, the constitution had been approved with controversies. The yes votes outpaced the no votes by a larger margin.

According to official results, votes for constitution were 10,693,911 (63.8 per cent) and against were 6,061,101 (36.2 per cent) whereas the total turnout stood at 32.2 per cent. However, it resulted in division of the nation. The “constitutional moment” was missed. A joint constitution could have built a consensus among political forces, liberal-secular and Islamist. On the contrary, it divided the entire movement and sowed seeds for the future political compartmentalisation. It was such political division that resulted in President Morsi’s ouster from power.

Had this happened before? Take the case of South Africa. South Africa’s post-Apartheid constitution was developed through a lengthy process of negotiation, public consultation, and consensual decision-making. It was nicknamed as the “birth certificate” of a new nation.

Former President Mohamed Morsi was justified in completing the transition phase in the shortest possible time. However, deliberations on constitution-making process, educating citizens about the text of the document on which they were asked to vote was more important than completing the transition phase.

Iraq in 2005 also had a divisive constitution-making process. But even in Iraq there was both a greater pretense of openness and consultation and a greater reality of negotiation than in Egypt. Hence, an opportunity to form a consensus-constitution was missed. No lessons were learnt from South Africa or for that matter Iraq. Thus, democracy was robbed in shape of removing a popularly-elected government with a majority of 53 per cent people’s support.

However, this is a fact that for the first time in the history of Egypt, a government came into existence by fulfilling all the prerequisites of a democratic process — a free and fair election. But the irony of fate is that it succumbed to minority pressure resulting in dictatorship. Further to that, forcing the Muslim Brotherhood to the sidelines is not the way forward rather this will further lash back. Muslim Brotherhood is a very strong party in Egypt with a strong street power. If they are not in the future government, Egypt will remain in turmoil for the next years till Brotherhood is accommodated.

Middle East is passing through a testing time. Only a regional political architecture can calm the Middle East and that cannot be achieved without active participation by democratically elected governments and the Western support to such democracies. Sitting like silent spectators and watching military takeover like in Egypt would keep Middle East in abysmal depth. Bringing countries like Egypt out of isolation and back into global mainstream — which means encouraging them to moderate policies, cheering democracy, and denouncing military takeover — are the absolute prerequisites of peace in the region. Unconditional support for them is no more productive than unconditional opposition to dictatorship or rise of dictatorship or even path to dictatorship.

We, as global partners, are accustomed to seeing the Middle East as a ticking time bomb. Images and words scare us: Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Hizbullah, al Qaeda, oppressed women, revolutionary guards, religious fundamentalists, Sheikhdoms, Islamic conservatism, anti-Americanism, patriarchal society and oil-fueled corruption.

Despite turmoil and bad omens associated with the greater Middle East, there are positive options as well. One of the positive options is to support the growing and nascent democracies like Egypt and discourage military takeovers.

The author teaches at the Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar syedshaheed@hotmail.co.uk

 

Historical follies
Whether Pakistan is ready or not, a new historical perspective is likely to emerge soon after Nato forces withdraw from Afghanistan
By Helal Pasha

William Dalrymple, in his recent essay “A Deadly Triangle” published at the Brookings Institute, claimed, “The hostility between India and Pakistan lies at the heart of the current conflict in Afghanistan.” In his essay, he further claimed that the hostilities around the partition are the true source of the problems between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A review of the history brings out a different context to the assertion, as he is way off the mark in sourcing it to 1947.

The current Pak-Afghan relations are just a perpetuation of historical clashes that surfaced from the battles that Raja Ranjit Singh’s armies fought in the famous Battle of Jamrud in 1837. Afghanistan, at the same time, was under attack from the Persian forces supported by Russian advisors on its western borders around Herat. Then the great game started. In December 1838, the East India Company managed to take Quetta from Bolan Pass and attacked Afghanistan to forestall the alleged Russian advance into Afghanistan. The roots of the dispute emerged in 1837, rather than 1947.

While Afghanistan lost its second capital Peshawar and the most productive farmlands to the Sikh armies, the British destroyed Afghanistan’s sovereignty in many ways and left Afghanistan as a weak state for the rest of the British rule in India.                                                                                                     

The military doctrine that guided the British invasion stated, “in order to ensure the welfare of India, the British must have a trustworthy ally on India’s western frontier.” Dalrymple has conveniently assigned exactly the same words to the famous “Strategic Depth” doctrine of the Pakistan Army developed after the Afghanistan civil war in 1980s.

Dalrymple’s thesis is not an exercise in futility; there is some merit to it, just stretched out too far to fit the storyline. The state of Pakistan is essentially the inheritor of the three domains — East India Company, the British Raj, and the Punjab of Raja Ranjit Singh — and their problems in this area played a major role in Pak-Afghan relations since 1947.

In Washington, DC, where the attention span is usually short, the article presents another historical revision of 1947 partition in a precise order, excelling in tidiness. Still, the US admin or intellectuals that supported the US invasion in 2001 hardly cared about the history of Afghanistan after the tragic events in September 2001.

The US might be interested in some contextual answers to resolve a historical anomaly; the departure of the Nato forces will fundamentally alter the relations in the region. Whether Pakistan is ready or not, a new historical perspective will emerge soon.

Pakistan and Afghanistan do not see eye to eye on different issues. There is major bitterness in Afghanistan over the role Pakistan played, especially under the army rule, in the 80s, 90s, and later in 2000s. Pakistan wants a permanent solution to territorial disputes over the Durand Line. Over the years, Pakistan has been insensitive in its handling of the situation or its responses have often been construed as maleficently, diminishing the Afghan sovereignty.

Pakistan has not learned from many setbacks including the menace of domestic terrorism of various sectarian or political groups. Over the last several years, Pakistan, humiliated by events like the one in Abbotabad, has not changed its course. The falling perception of Pakistan around the world has not deterred Pakistan from following a problematic approach since 1980s.

Fata has been in a state of semi-war for the last 30 years. Especially, the last 10 years of intense war and drones in the region have contributed to the collapse of the traditional cultural, tribal, and familial relations. The tribal areas lack any infrastructure for remedies. Residents have abandoned their fields. The increasing numbers of jobless youth provide perfect environments for the Taliban recruitment.

The Taliban make a religious pitch; provide opportunities to youth to assert power and strength on the streets, and promise financial rewards to strapped parents, brothers, and sisters to recruit suicide bombers. In a collapsing social structure, militants’ numbers swell up fast.

The continued insurgency in Fata, now extended to parts of KPK, creates conditions that would allow some groups to strengthen their positions for future unification of the Pushtoon-speaking areas. With KPK and Fata joining in, the chances of economic viability of any such area would increase manifold. Many interested parties can easily manipulate the Taliban like groups in Fata. The most likely manipulators could be the Afghan Taliban and some foreign groups. They encourage insurgency in Pakistan to loosen the state structure by spreading lawlessness. With the anarchy spreading to the settled areas, the state would lose the apparatus to maintain the physical integrity of the country.

The way Pakistan operated during the last decade or so has diminished people’s confidence in the state. People see Pakistan state behaving erratically under one influence or another. Rationalising and leveling with people is key to garner support. Similarly, the prolonged dispute over an already accepted international border with Afghanistan is not in Pakistan’s interest. Better relations with India and Afghanistan are prerequisite for economic success of Pakistan.

People of Pakistan, exhausted by unnecessary disputes on the borders and constant domestic violence in the cities, look for better handling from the new government.

 

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