budget
Survey with mixed findings

Despite the government's claims of robust economic growth, the Economic Survey contains a lot of alarming facts
By Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri
They say when one has to tell that love is happening or justice is being done then there must be something wrong. Everyone automatically finds out when there is love and justice. I would add prosperity and development to this list. My submission is that when governments have to repeatedly inform that it is bringing prosperity and development for masses then pro-public development is actually not taking place. People would automatically acknowledge when such development takes place. One can imply this principle to understand why our rulers (civilians, semi civilians or military) have to inform the masses of all the good things that they carried out in the 'larger national interest', including the extent to which they changed the destinies of the common masses.

Newswatch
A little vagueness goes a long way in politics

By Kaleem Omar
The vast majority of politicians have never regarded politics as the arena of morals. To them, it is the arena of interests.

situation
Armed and dangerous

When crime goes unchecked, circumstances lead to crimes of greater intensity
By Dr Noman Ahmed
The United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UN-HABITAT) has declared 'A safe city is a just city' as the theme of World Habitat Day 2007. A growing concern that is rising globally is the increased vulnerability of mega cities to clandestine forces of crime and chaos, coercion and conflict. Due to their association with political and administrative interest groups, these elements are able to stretch their tentacles to acquire control over the entire performance of cities. And they keep demonstrating their strength to blackmail the city dwellers, administrators and peaceful political groups. The sad events of May 12 in Karachi were a bitter reminder of the fact that the city can be held hostage in the shortest period of time. It was a repetition of earlier events. 

Inflated expectations
A stable inflation rate is the hallmark of sound macroeconomic policies but in Pakistan it has had an overall increase of around 30 per cent since 1999
By Aziz Omar
Let us all bow to the great gods of economic prosperity for bestowing upon us the manna of GDP growth. It is being assumed that the average citizens have now on their hands, more money than ever to spend as they please. But before we all start to make plans for going out and buying the latest must-have accessory that we have been yearning for all this time, let's be on the lookout for that demon known as inflation.

issue
Marine fisheries in crisis

Non-compliance with universal health safety standards presents the risk of losing export markets, as demonstrated by the succession of European embargoes on fish exports
By Shaheen Rafi Khan
Pakistan's Marine Fisheries sector has traditionally generated multiple benefits, earning precious foreign exchange for the country, ensuring livelihood for coastal fishermen, providing angling and tourism amenities and sustaining a complex and unique marine ecosystem. However, the threats to this sector over the years have been both severe and equally diverse. The marine habitat and its species are at risk from sea water incursion, freshwater retention, effluent flows, mangrove destruction and large trawler inroads.

Drop by drop, drip by drip 
Introduction of drip irrigation and use of windmill are just some of the innovative measures benefiting farmers in a remote Sindh village
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

Krishan Lal, a farmer by profession, is a resident of village Khan Muhammad Rajar, situated 11 kilometres away from Taluka (tehsil) headquarter Khipro in Sanghar district, Sindh. Falling within the jurisdictional limits of union council Hathongo, this 120 years old village houses around 1,050 people.


debate
The cruel game of oligarchy

For the first time a large educated fraternity has come out in support of the rule of law and a welfare state, challenging the mythical concept of 'security state'
By Muhammad Ahsan Yatu

Benazir Bhutto in her recent article wrote that May 12, 2007 was one of the darkest days in Pakistan. That implies there were many more darkest days. How many? Commenting on her article some one opined that the common Pakistanis have so far seen 60 (365) = 21900 dark days. This figure shows that we were in trouble right from the beginning. It is a true opinion. As a nation we have not seen in political context any good day in the last sixty years. We are waiting for the one. One thing is for sure that it will not come, if our political uncertainty continues.

Perception and reality
By stifling the freedom of expression, the government can at best manipulate the perception of reality and public behaviour but cannot improve the reality itself
By Hussain H Zaidi
Behind the government's attempts to clip the wings of the media by both legal (not necessarily lawful) and extra-legal measures lies the desperation to manipulate the relationship between the reality and perception in Pakistan.



budget
Survey with mixed findings
Despite the government's claims of robust economic growth, the Economic Survey contains a lot of alarming facts
By Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri

They say when one has to tell that love is happening or justice is being done then there must be something wrong. Everyone automatically finds out when there is love and justice. I would add prosperity and development to this list. My submission is that when governments have to repeatedly inform that it is bringing prosperity and development for masses then pro-public development is actually not taking place. People would automatically acknowledge when such development takes place. One can imply this principle to understand why our rulers (civilians, semi civilians or military) have to inform the masses of all the good things that they carried out in the 'larger national interest', including the extent to which they changed the destinies of the common masses.

June is usually the month when our rulers, during the launch of Economic Survey of Pakistan, and presentation of annual budget, inform us how sincere they are with their citizens. Since the launch of Economic Survey of Pakistan, government spokespersons are busy painting a rosy picture of robust economic growth, claiming that Pakistan is one of the fastest growing economies of the Asian region with 7 per cent GDP growth, with per capita income of $925, foreign investment of $6 billion and a recipient of $5.5 billion in the form of workers remittance.

The economic managers have all rights to celebrate the above mentioned macro-economic achievements. However, they should not forget that economic survey also revealed that all was not well at economic front and the country would miss the export, import, trade deficit, current account deficit, and large scale manufacturing targets by the end of the current fiscal year. The survey also revealed that contingent liabilities cost (specific government obligations defined by a contract or a law), internal and external debts, and spending on defence as well as on debt repayment go up.

To me the most alarming aspects of our economic performance are missed inflation target and widening of rich-poor gulf. According to the government sources the average inflation for the year is likely to be around 7.5 per cent --100 bps above the target. Food inflation during current fiscal year is expected to be 10.5 per cent as against 7 per cent of last year. According to economic survey, "This year's inflation has largely been driven by higher food inflation as opposed to last year where the major culprit was non-food inflation". The type of inflation (food or non-food) that hits an ordinary person is irrelevant as both types would have equally negative consequences. It is just like asking someone whether she/he would like to be killed by gunshot or by getting stabbed.

In my personal opinion, the intensity of food inflation would be much severe for low-income and bottom quintiles of the society. What should the general masses eat if the commodities like pulses, rice, chillies, onions, tomatoes and edible oil go beyond their economic access?

With this type of food inflation do we deserve to celebrate the 5.0 per cent growth in agriculture sector? Highest wheat crop and second highest sugarcane crop would turn meaningless if these bumper yields fail to bring any improvement in the life of their growers. Perhaps it is more to do with the lack of planning than irony of luck that despite promising performance in agriculture sector and despite the fact the Pakistan is a member of Cairns group (food exporting countries) in WTO, our food imports grew by 5.3 per cent and touched a historic figure of $2.3 billions during first ten months of the current fiscal year. Major contributors to the rise in food imports include pulses, milk and milk products, dry fruits, and edible oil.

Government tries to defend her position by pointing out that higher food inflation is a global phenomenon and the global food price index is up by 16.1 per cent. This may be true to some extent, but merits a detailed analysis. Government duties on edible oil are major source of revenue generation. Pakistan imported edible oil worth $763 million during first ten moths of this fiscal year (spent 24 per cent higher than previous year in this regard). Government levies 23 rupees per litre duty on edible oil. Is this duty not contributing to increased food inflation?

Now let us consider the imports of milk and milk-products. Pakistan is the fifth largest producer of milk and second largest producer of buffalo milk in the world. Despite this massive production, is it not a dilemma that value of milk and milk-products imports in current year saw a change of 36.9 per cent compared to previous year?

As a measure to combat food inflation, government has announced supply of essential food items through Utility Stores. This is an ad hoc solution that would lead to market distortions as well as social problems. General masses have not forgotten the agony when they had to queue up at Utility Stores for hours to obtain subsidised sugar in recent past. The cases being investigated by National Accountability Bureau against Utility Stores corporation high-ups reveal that such subsidy lead to corruption. Government should try to check the hoarding of food items to bring down the food prices at a reasonable level. In the case of edible oil, the better option would be to reduce the duties to the extent to an amount that government wants to spend in the form of subsidy through utility stores. This would automatically lower down the price of edible oil and ensure its supply to each and all at a reduced price.

Coming back to the economic performance and government's claim of bringing prosperity, let us ponder how to define the type of development that widens the rich-poor gulf. According to the economic survey the share of consumption of the richest 20 per cent is far more than four times the share of the bottom 20 per cent population in the country. The poverty line set by the government is Rs 878.64 per month with caloric intake of 2350. The government claims nearly 10 per cent reduction in number of people living below poverty line during last 5 years. This claim is disputed by many non-governmental sources including international financial institutes. However, going by government figures, it is still sad that nearly a quarter of our population lives below a poverty line of 48 cent per day. One way of bridging the gulf between rich and poor is to use taxation system effectively. However, the three lucrative economic activities i.e., gain in real estate, gain in stock exchange markets, and agricultural income was not brought in tax net, thus leaving the salaried class and to some extent corporate sector to be the major tax payers. 

There is no doubt that Pakistan's economy is growing at an average rate of 7.5 per cent during last four years. However, one needs to recognise that macro-economic indicators do not reflect the micro realities at grassroots level. It should also be recognised that strategy for economic growth and the same for distribution of gains of economic growth are two distinct things. For economic growth to be pro-poor, generation of employment opportunities and an increase in real wages is a must. This is certainly not the case in Pakistan. In 2000-01, GDP grew by 2 per cent and unemployment rate (official statistics, independent sources claim that it was even higher) was 7.8 per cent. In 2003-04, GDP grew by 7.5 per cent but unemployment rate was 8.3 per cent. In 2004-05, GDP grew by 9 per cent, however, unemployment rate remained almost constant i.e., 7.7 percent. In these circumstances, where GDP growth does not seem to have a correlation with employment generation, there may be instances where labour force is compelled to work on lower salaries due to scarcity of jobs.

Economic growth, without social justice is meaningless and certainly not a sufficient binding force to keep the society and nation intact. During the 1960s, Pakistan had an impressive growth rate. On an average it was 6.8 per cent from 1963-68. Just before 1971, Pakistan had observed a marvellous economic growth rate nearly 9.6 per cent. However, due to lack of social justice, this growth alone could not stop partition of East Pakistan.

Unfortunately we are not learning any lessons from our mistakes. One may observe infrastructure development activities, but those are confined to elite areas of major cities. These developmental disparities are giving rise to social injustice, a major cause of social unrest. It is more than a coincidence that according to a World Food Programme-SDPI report, the areas termed as 'axis of evil' in Pakistan such as Dera Bugti, South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Hungo, Bolan, Kharan are among the most deprived and food insecure districts of Pakistan.

Things become even worse when people find obvious disparities between developmental and non-developmental budget, especially the disparities between the allocation of resources for defence purposes and those for public sector development including health and education. Situation gets worst when masses find out that mere allocation for developmental expenditures do not mean anything and one third of allocated funds for public sector development programme remained unspent whereas there was an overexpenditure on defence.

Along with these statistics and facts are issues like bad governance, judicial and democratic crises, and non-consultative, non transparent policies that widen the gap between micro-realities and macro-indicators. This leads to a situation where masses don't feel any ownership in the so-called 'development plans' of the government, leaving government in a situation where it keeps claiming and reminding that its policies are bringing prosperity and pro-people development in the country.

 

The writer is an Islamabad based policy analyst and columnist. Email suleri@sdpi.org

 


Newswatch
A little vagueness goes a long way in politics
By Kaleem Omar

The vast majority of politicians have never regarded politics as the arena of morals. To them, it is the arena of interests.

American consumer advocate Ralph Nader, who ran for president of the United States in 2004 on a Green Party ticket, once said, "What we have now is democracy without citizens. No one is on the public's side! And the bureaucrats in the administration don't think the government belongs to the people."

What all this translates into is not Lincoln's famous dictum about government by the people, of the people, for the people, but government by the government, of the government, for the government.

Jerry Brown, governor of California in the mid-1970s, and a man much given to fuzzy, New Age-philosophy pronouncements, said, on his entry into the US presidential race in 1976, "A little vagueness goes a long way in politics."

Nowhere are prejudices more mistaken for truth, passion for reason, and invective for documentation than in politics. Politics is a realm peopled only by villains or heroes. In politics everything is black or white and grey is a forbidden colour. Like history, politics often tends towards farce.

Winston Churchill, who knew a thing or two about politics, once remarked, "Politics are very much like war. We may even have to use poison gas at times."

Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev said, "Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river." Warming to his theme, he added, "If we should promise people nothing better than only revolution, they would scratch their heads and say, Isn't it better to have good goulash?"

Mao Zedong, however, took a somewhat different view when he observed, "A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery. It cannot be so refined. A revolution is an insurrection, by which one class overthrows another."

In his memoirs, Richard Nixon recounts a conversation he had with Mao during his visit to China in 1972. "I sometimes wonder what would have happened if it had been Khrushchev who had been assassinated in 1963 instead of John Kennedy," said Nixon. "Well, one thing's for sure," replied Mao, "Onassis wouldn't have married Mrs Khrushchev!"

American black radical Elaine Brown said, while commenting on Mao's successful revolution versus her own problems as a leader in the 1970s of the US Black Panther Party, "Mao didn't have to deal with people who were watching seven hours of television every day."

Then, there is Aslam Khusra, a eunuch from Abbottabad, who worked as a waiter in a ramshackle restaurant. Emboldened by the enthusiastic reception he got from people when he announced his candidacy for a NWFP provincial assembly seat in Pakistan's 1993 general elections, Khusra declared, in ringing tones, that he intended to run for prime minister next time. "You've tried a woman, you've tried a man, now try me," he thundered.

His words must have evoked a sympathetic chord in his audience because he ended up getting 6,500 votes -- considerably more than the number some so-called established politicians got.

In his 'Notebooks' (published in 1962), the great French writer Albert Camus observed, "Politics and the fate of mankind are shaped by men without ideals and without greatness. Men who have greatness within them don't go in for politics."

That may be too harsh a judgment. Politics, for all its faults, has had its great men. Quaid-e-Azam, for example, was a very great man indeed. He created a new country. There is probably no one else in history of whom that can be said.

Everyone knows the Quaid was a man of unyielding principles and of the highest integrity. Less well known is the fact that he had a wonderful sense of humour.

When Gandhi wrote him a long, rambling letter saying that he was writing to him in his personal capacity because he (Gandhi) held no official position in the Indian National Congress, the Quaid wrote back saying, "Mr Gandhi, when are you going to clothe yourself in authority?"

The Quaid's retort was doubly pungent because Gandhi, by then, had taken to going around bare-chested, dressed only in a dhoti.

It is one of this country's greatest misfortunes that the Quaid died only a year after Pakistan came into being. Had he lived even a few more years, he would almost certainly have ensured that the Pakistani people got a constitution that was both truly democratic and truly federal in character.

After the Quaid's death in September 1948, Liaquat Ali Khan -- the Quaid's trusted lieutenant and, like him, a man of unimpeachable integrity -- struggled manfully to keep the country committed to the path to democracy.

Only three years after the Quaid's death, however, Liaquat was struck down by an assassin's bullet -- a traumatic event over which his successors in government promptly threw a veil of secrecy that has not been lifted to this day.

That's when the rot set in, reducing the politics of this country to a cynical jockeying for position, a ceaseless trading, a deliberate use of words not for communication but to conceal intention -- as, for instance, when General Zia-ul-Haq solemnly pledged to the nation on television in July 1977 that he had taken over the government for only 90 days in order to hold free and fair elections and then proceeded, brazen-faced, to rule for 11 long years.

R. Buckminster Fuller, an American engineer and the inventor of the revolutionary geodesic dome, once remarked, "Politics is an accessory after the fact."

And that is what Pakistani politics has become, an accessory after the fact of the secession of the country's eastern wing, an accessory after the fact of rigged elections, an accessory after the fact of a series of deviations from democracy.

The American economist J. K. Galbraith once remarked, "Nothing in politics is so admirable as a short memory."

That is certainly true of Pakistan where people's memories of political events seem to be getting shorter all the time.



situation
Armed and dangerous
When crime goes unchecked, circumstances lead to crimes of greater intensity
By Dr Noman Ahmed

The United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UN-HABITAT) has declared 'A safe city is a just city' as the theme of World Habitat Day 2007. A growing concern that is rising globally is the increased vulnerability of mega cities to clandestine forces of crime and chaos, coercion and conflict. Due to their association with political and administrative interest groups, these elements are able to stretch their tentacles to acquire control over the entire performance of cities. And they keep demonstrating their strength to blackmail the city dwellers, administrators and peaceful political groups. The sad events of May 12 in Karachi were a bitter reminder of the fact that the city can be held hostage in the shortest period of time. It was a repetition of earlier events.

Whenever such episodes have taken place, one thread has run in common: the institutions responsible for managing such events have been ineffective. This time too, nothing was any different. The city administration, home department, police force and the most expensive-to-maintain Rangers repeated their performance (which has remained their trade mark during a sizable stretch of Karachi's urban history). The transport motivated riots after the sad demise of student Bushra Zaidi in 1985; sectarian riots in Liaquatabad, Nazimabad, Federal 'B' Area, Rizvia Society, Usmania Society, Malir Colony and else where in the city in intervals during 1980s and 1990s; the notorious ethnic violence at Aligarh Colony, Banaras Colony and Qasba Colony in 1986; operations of law enforcing agencies on an ethno-political organisation in 1992 onwards and the street protests as a consequence of blasphemous cartoons in 2006 were all events which saw the state authority diluted to a null status.

In other words, the various types of miscreants, armed or otherwise, successfully manage to break the law and spread anarchy after assurance of least (or no) obstruction from law enforcers. Beyond all kinds of political and civil concerns, this points to the decadent capacity of civic administration without doubt. It requires a thread bare review.

As per the standing statutes, the maintenance of law and order is the responsibility of local police. It is a civic force which functions under the administrative authority of the provincial Home Department. Independent observers, insiders and succeeding police chiefs have mentioned 'politicisation' of the force as the biggest handicap that obstructs the police to function independently. There cannot be two opinions about the truth of this statement. However, the status and characteristics of politicisation need to be minutely analysed.

In yester years, the changing regimes would appoint a serving eligible officer of choice to head the force. It was assumed that having a police chief marginally sympathetic to the cause of regime would be sufficient. The hierarchy of the force largely remained untouched. The situation has changed drastically, more so during the previous decade. The regime now intends to have its own faithful down to the level of station house officers (SHOs) or even lower grades. Transfers, postings, suspensions and deputations are all done in an absolutely politically motivated manner. Regimes consider this as a safe strategy for multiple reasons.

Provision of safety and security to the ruling party's activities, victimisation and coercion of opponents, documentation of cases / first information reports (FIRs) as coercive tactics against opponents, total refusal of registering reports against party workers or sympathisers of the regime as well as extension of helping hand during political rallies of importance are the usual duties the police force is supposed to perform. While following these loaded terms of reference, the police has to do its essential work of maintaining law and order, investigating crimes and preparing prosecution documents / challans of the alleged convicts. Much of the latter category tasks are kept at the back burner. No wonder that thousands of common people suffer from crimes of sorts such as mobile snatching to kidnapping and even murder.

Whereas a common man on the streets is the ultimate victim in this high game, it is most deplorable to note that most high profile crimes such as terrorism and murder of notables also go unnoticed. The tragic murders of Hakim Mohammed Said, Allama Hasan Turabi, Mufti Jameel, Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, Maulana Muhammad Yusuf Ludhianvi, Khalid Bin Waleed, Abdullah Murad, Munnawar Suharwardy, Abdul Raziq Khan and martyrs of Nishtar Park are only a few cases in point. It may also be noted that the capacity of police force to deal with riots has declined sharply. The frequency of sensitive religious and political events throughout the calendar year is on the rise. In contrast, the security arrangements are normally undertaken by shoddily cobbled together teams and patrols. This tendency has forced many of the organisers to take their own security measures, much of which are dangerous and illegal in nature.

The ownership, possession and usage of guns, arms and ammunition is on a meteoric rise in Karachi. In certain locations, the common market places depict the scenes of Waziristan or any other tribal agency. Similarly a visit to the office of some political party would flicker images of a mafia sanctuary. Every informal business operations are provided security by the gunmen belonging to the same community or hired men. Operations in Sabzi Mandi, transporters, whole sale markets, livestock herds, milk market and informal money changers / lenders have private regiments of armed people.

There are ghettoes housing armed marksmen in certain peri-urban locations who can be hired as killing machines, if the need arises. It is even claimed that these informal battalions have 'better' quality and typologies of arms as compared to some law-enforcing agencies. These are open secrets which are well known to every relevant department of administration.

A casual response which is normally voiced is to launch a campaign of recovering illegal arms. If initiated, such a campaign is undoubtedly destined to fail. The ownership of arms exists due to multiple reasons such as personal security, political usage, arsenal for communal / sectarian protection and even for trading purposes. Until the root causes are not studied and dealt with, disarming the society shall remain a utopia. The issue also needs to be seen with reference to the various layers of governance. Those 'innocent' beings at the main helm of the affairs know well that disarming may prove harmful for various strategic reasons. Only the gradual but firm revival of the strength and capacity of law enforcing and civil institutions can pave the way to normalcy.

Spread of arms is a key cause of weakening urban governance and a prelude to anarchy. The writs of the law only seem to exist for those who are powerless and do not possess guns. The others use it as a 'pressure tactic' to resolve their impending problems. During the construction of Lyari Expressway, when a contingent of police marched towards Niazi Colony to evict some of the households, they met with fierce armed resistance which made them flee the spot. On the contrary, the same police force mishandled the occupants of various other settlements who did not offer any such resistance. If such case studies become representative examples, the peace of the city will be greatly jeopardised.

Some steps are crucial to be taken without delay, given the chronological record of armed uprisings in the city. The first and foremost is the neutrality and reversal to professionalism of the police force.

Legally and institutionally, the significance of police in the routine law and order maintenance is paramount. It needs a complete overhaul. Rules and regulations may be suitably changed to ensure that the SHOs are departmentally appointed on merit without political interference. A civil society link up may be established to oversee the performance of area police stations. Community policing is a useful practice that is likely to bridge the gap between police and society. In sensitive areas, investigational capacity of the police needs to be enhanced to wholistically analyse the root causes of trouble.

A charter of peace must be drafted and debated amongst all political parties not to use, show or own fire arms in their routine activities. Sindh legislature may consider it as a top priority for law making. Trust of the people must be enhanced by encouraging them to come forward and report violations of such practices.

When carried out, these basic steps will be greatly effective in bringing peace and tranquility to the city. It may also lead to the eventual identification of 'hidden hand' that is solely held responsible for all the troubles the city had. It may also help relieve the Rangers to focus on their prime duty of border safe guard. And finally, the judicial process of punishing the crime must be established in a transparent manner. In contexts where crimes go unchecked, circumstances give rise to many more crimes of greater intensities.

 


Inflated expectations
A stable inflation rate is the hallmark of sound macroeconomic policies but in Pakistan it has had an overall increase of around 30 per cent since 1999
By Aziz Omar

Let us all bow to the great gods of economic prosperity for bestowing upon us the manna of GDP growth. It is being assumed that the average citizens have now on their hands, more money than ever to spend as they please. But before we all start to make plans for going out and buying the latest must-have accessory that we have been yearning for all this time, let's be on the lookout for that demon known as inflation.

The official quarters have been blowing their trumpets in celebration of the glorious phenomenon of consumer spending. The top brass has been comfortably bragging that the riches have finally come a knocking and it is possible to embrace them with open arms. Well, there is somewhat of a twist to this entire consumerism hullabaloo. In order to wallow in the luxurious convenience offered by latest cars (though being the low-end models), housing schemes and electronic gadgets, one may have to go on an empty stomach. It is indeed the edible items that are inflating this hungry beast, now at a rate of 7.9 per cent.

As stated by the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2006-07, a stable inflation rate is the hallmark of sound macroeconomic policies. This is exactly what has not happened in the case of our country's economic profile over the past couple of years. Since 1999, the net effect has been that inflation has accelerated. The inflation rate itself has had an overall increase of around 30 per cent. This basically means that the prices have been increasing but for the past two years and they have been adding up even faster than before. The survey goes on to explain this as an outcome of 'sharp economic recovery' and a tightening of monetary policy. What with the food-group inflation at a dizzying peak of 10.2 per cent, the only tightening has been that of the belts of the budget-conscious ones.

Before, we simply had the Price Monitoring Committee to regulate abnormal price increases by being on the lookout for hoarders and black marketers. Then two years ago, a special Prime Minister's Committee on Prices (PMCP) was constituted under the chairmanship of the PM's favourite advisor. It is indeed quite interesting that while still holding the office of the Finance Minister, Shaukat Aziz still needs to be advised by the likes of Dr Salman Shah. So with the esteemed doctor being so intimately involved with the economic affairs of the country, it is quite surprising that the period of 2004-07 has witnessed the highest levels of inflation in recent years.

The survey report does concede that extreme levels of inflation and economic growth just don't go together. Hence, it does seem rather incredulous that the economy of the country has undergone the posted 7 per cent GDP growth. This situation is akin to not having your cake and then eating it too. The largest component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is after all the food-group, with the perishable items being the usual suspects. These are the very items that require the bulk of one's income. GDP per capita is already grossly exaggerated indicator of the standard of living, as it just averages out the GDP across the entire population. Even if the current figure of $925 had any actual bearing upon the incomes of the common citizen, he or she would be living beyond their means. Even if we discount the 10.2 per cent food-group inflation rate, the overall one would drown out any aspirations of living within one's means. 

However, the government's claims of inflation being spurred on by the negative practices of the suppliers are being challenged on certain fronts. Using the case of the wheat support price, a working paper of the IMF reveals that it is monetary factors that have been deemed to be largely responsible. The wheat support price is the minimum guaranteed price that the government will pay in order to procure the stock for its grain reserves. Any increases in that price only affect inflation in the short run, as claimed by the paper. So if we extend this finding to the relationship between the prices of other food items and inflation, we may discern a similar scenario. It is the jumps in the latter that lead to increases in the former in the long run, which really has been the case. And as the paper correctly points out, after the inflation rate crosses a certain threshold, it has an adverse effect on economic growth.

The rate of inflation in Pakistan has stayed above its set target of 6.5 per cent. This is indeed a threshold value in Pakistan's case and any value above it will surely have a negative impact on long term growth. Those above nine per cent have been observed to even curb short-run growth. Low levels of inflation have been found to either have no considerable effect on growth or have boosted it. A stable inflation rate albeit below a threshold value does not necessarily imply macroeconomic growth as claimed within the Economic Survey. For the development of financial institutions, an even lower ideal range of three to six per cent has been suggested.

It seems that presently, the only way to tackle inflation is inflated bank accounts. These are very much in the possession of the folks living in the bari kothees of posh areas such as the Defence societies of various cities. They readily ensure that these elite and their roaring machines are always well-fuelled. As for the lowly others, the only price they are going to end up paying is the one for their subservience.

 


issue
Marine fisheries in crisis
Non-compliance with universal health safety standards presents the risk of losing export markets, as demonstrated by the succession of European embargoes on fish exports
By Shaheen Rafi Khan

Pakistan's Marine Fisheries sector has traditionally generated multiple benefits, earning precious foreign exchange for the country, ensuring livelihood for coastal fishermen, providing angling and tourism amenities and sustaining a complex and unique marine ecosystem. However, the threats to this sector over the years have been both severe and equally diverse. The marine habitat and its species are at risk from sea water incursion, freshwater retention, effluent flows, mangrove destruction and large trawler inroads.

The first signs of ecological irreversibility are becoming increasingly evident. The symptoms are partially captured in the recent European embargoes on fish exports. Pakistan exports its major catch of shrimp to the European market. Because of its inability to comply with EU health safety standards, it faced embargoes on its exports first in 1998, then in February 2005 and now recently, in February, 2007.

Environmental, social and quality standards have become a defining feature of global trade. Initially, these were regulatory standards imposed by governments. In time, discerning consumers became aware of the environmental and social risks embodied in internationally traded goods. Their concern gave rise to eco-labelling requirements; a certification that the goods were produced according to specified social and environmental criteria. The standards are voluntary in nature. If exporters fail to comply with these standards, they risk losing markets. The products are screened for quality and toxicity (embodied effects); equally important, the production process must not have adverse social and environmental impacts (process effects). In the marine fisheries sector, these voluntary product and process standards reach across the entire supply chain, including pre-processing, processing and fish harvesting.

The European embargo affects processing and pre-processing activities, which are regulated by sanitary phytosanitary standards--Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (SPA–HACCP). These are universal health safety standards which have WTO sanction under the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). HACCP refers to implementation modalities. These can vary across regions and countries.

Fish harvesting is governed by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) standards. While MSC standards are not presently being applied in Pakistan, they provide the appropriate context for sustainable harvesting. A recent UN report predicts a severe depletion of global fish stocks in the next 50 years. Therefore, it may just be a matter of time before MSC standards are applied more universally and it would, therefore, make sense to preempt them.

Pakistan's Marine Fisheries span a 700 mile coastline lying between Sir Creek in Sindh and Jiwani in Balochistan and include the territorial waters of these provinces. They are a direct source of livelihood for over a million people and support fishing communities. The bulk of the fishing population resides in the Karachi division. The other concentrations are in Thatta, Sindh; Gwadar and Pasni in Balochistan. More than 15,000 fishing vessels of various sizes, ranging from small to medium-sized boats, large launches and trawlers engage in fishing, almost one third are shrimp trawlers; the bulk of these are owned by investors outside the community. Boat and shore fishing is done in creeks and within the 12 miles territorial limit which falls under provincial jurisdiction. The larger launches go further off shore into deeper waters on extended fishing excursions, some reaching as far as the Somalian coast.

Setting the policy context is also important. Pakistan's deep sea fishing policy was formulated in 1982, in the wake of the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas. For the first time, the convention defined territorial and exclusive economic zones for all states in the world. Initially, the government allowed joint ventures between foreign and local investors. However, the policy was changed in 1989, permitting only Pakistani flagged vessels. This failed to restrict foreign trawlers as local feudals and investors began to front for them. In 1995, responding to pressure from local fishermen, the government altered the policy by creating a buffer zone lying between 12-35 nautical miles (NM).

The zone aimed to protect territorial waters from incursions by trawlers and large local launches. However, in 1999, the newly army-installed government abolished the buffer zone. Commercial fishing operations were allowed up to the 12 NM limit but transgressions into coastal waters and into the creeks were reported frequently. Clearly, the primary focus of the policy is on commercial fishing, completely ignoring livelihood and sustainable harvesting concerns. The scarcity induced by such large scale inroads has given rise to a phenomenon known as the poverty environment nexus, where poor and vulnerable communities are forced to destroy the resource base they depend on for their survival.

Compliance along the supply chain - Gap analysis

 

Processing: Compliance with health and safety standards is mandatory at the processing and pre-processing stages. The analysis illustrates that such compliance is best when it is market driven. The drivers of compliance at the processing stage are markets and the underlying unpredictability of the business. If exporters fail to comply with standards, they risk losing export markets, as demonstrated by the succession of European embargoes. Second, processing is both high risk and costly. Contamination in a single container means the entire consignment has to be destroyed. Also, the plants are practically inactive during the monsoon season, which coincides with the breeding period when fishing is banned. Finally catches fluctuate daily. High risks, high capital and processing costs involve owners closely in plant management. The EU inspectors have noted high awareness levels with regard to HACCP among plant workers, comparing it with conditions in India and Thailand.

Pre-processing activities require policy and institutional interventions and it is at this stage the slippages begin to occur. HACCP standards are both plant specific and apply to all stages of pre-processing. The three stages of pre-processing are:

1.On-board fishing vessels

2.On docks/auction halls

3.In transport to processing plants

The compliance with the standards was poor. The EU inspectors pointed out high contamination levels on board the fishing vessels, landing docks and auction halls. They found insects and rodents on board the fishing vessels. Raw fish were being handled with bare hands and placed in rusted buckets and cans. The larger containers were made of jute and wood instead of plastic. The washing arrangements were unsatisfactory. There was no proper washing area. The fish were flushed with a mixture of fresh and seawater and placed on dirty ice. 

On-shore handling also fell below the basic sanitary and health standards. The handlers shoveled the fish in to challas (reed, straw baskets) with spades and transported them in open lorries, to the auction halls. Larvae were seen in abundance in the challas. The auction halls were equally unsanitary with a profusion of cats and dogs preying upon unguarded or rejected fish. The fish deposit areas were littered with cigarette butts, discolored with paan (betel) spit; people walked over these areas cockroaches were seen coming out of drains and scurry over the fish. Storages constructed near the auction halls for storing unsold fish exhibited similar unsanitary conditions. Fish tended to be dumped on floor, rather than in the trolleys meant to hold them. Rodent and insect activity was strongly in evidence. The transportation of fish from the auction halls to the processing plants met acceptable cleanliness criteria if the processors used their own mobile vans. Other forms of transport, including open mode, tended to be sub-standard.

Compliance failure has institutional roots. In the absence of a market driver and facing a measure of cultural resistance, the onus is on institutions to educate, inform, implement and enforce. Three potential players in compliance are the Fishermen's Cooperative Society (FCS), the Marine Fisheries Department (MFD) and the Karachi Fish Harbour Authority (KFHA). Overlapping responsibilities are a source of tension among them and none of the three is technically, financially or administratively equipped to cope with the various aspects of compliance. Also, financial allocations tend to be misutilised, for instance, a recent large allocation to the KFHA to improve harbour conditions was diverted to build a shopping center.

To some extent, official apathy can be countered by the processors as compliance failure affects their ability to export. Processors have been known to exert financial and political leverage with harbor authorities. However, their involvement needs to be institutionalised as part of an integrated approach to compliance. Getting the fishermen on-board is more difficult; their primary concern is getting a good price for their fish in order to feed their families and pay off their debts.

The second part of this article next week shall look at the complex dynamics of sustainable harvesting.

 

(The author is Research Fellow, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad)

 


Drop by drop, drip by drip 
Introduction of drip irrigation and use of windmill are just some of the innovative measures benefiting farmers in a remote Sindh village
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

Krishan Lal, a farmer by profession, is a resident of village Khan Muhammad Rajar, situated 11 kilometres away from Taluka (tehsil) headquarter Khipro in Sanghar district, Sindh. Falling within the jurisdictional limits of union council Hathongo, this 120 years old village houses around 1,050 people.

Main castes here are Rajars and Manghwar and main languages Sindhis and Marwaris. The male and female population of the village is mostly engaged in livestock and agriculture. Besides, there are labourers, masons, carpenters, blacksmiths, tailors and so on, but in small numbers.

For Krishan, life was not easy, at all, till a couple of years back. To grow any crop, fruit or even shrubs in this water-deficient area was nothing less than a challenge. Similar was the ordeal of the womenfolk who would walk endlessly to fetch water for drinking.

He often recalls how tough it was to drill for water and irrigate small tracts of land. Besides, he says, lot of water was lost due to seepage as the village and its surrounding lands lie in a desert.

"Thanks to the innovative steps taken by the local community, we are in a much better position today. While people of many developed cities have only heard about drip irrigation technique, we are actually benefitting from it. The other successful experiment that we have carried out is about using windmill to draw underground water for drinking purposes," he says.

Krishan tells TNS that it was not an easy task to convince people to struggle jointly for the launch of these projects. The villagers would turn a deaf ear to the motivators working with Sindh Agricultural and Forestry Workers Coordinating Organisation (Safwco), a non-profit body having an overwhelming presence in the backward areas of Sindh.

The main contention, he says, was that these people were asking locals to arrange 20 per cent of the project costs. The remaining would have come from Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) that finances such projects in this part of the country in partnership with Safwco. "Once we realised that we will benefit a lot from these projects, all of us contributed according to our capacity and arranged the required 20 per cent of the project cost," he says.

Drip system in this village cultivates 17 hectares of land and benefits 140 people. The total cost incurred on its installation was Rs 10,89,172, of which Rs 8,71,000 were contributed by PPAF and the community's share was Rs 2,18,172. Being a method that applies water, slowly and frequently, directly to the roots with the help of perforated pipes, drip irrigation saved 60 per cent of the water that goes waste in case of service irrigation.

Abbas Panhwar, an engineer working with Safwco, tells TNS that water is saved also for the reason that there is no evaporation or seepage into ground where there is no vegetation. This method is highly useful in cases where plants are planted at a distance from each, for example in orchards, he says. The types of crops which are sown through this system are tomato, potatoes, maize, grapes, citrus, ber etc.

Another benefit of drip irrigation is that it conserves groundwater in areas where there are rains after three to four years. By the time the gound water is consumed, the rains recharge the acquifier. In the absence of this system, the groundwater in such areas is consumed in just 1 to 2 years leading to droughts, says Panhwar.

The other successful project in the village is about using windmill to pump water for drinking purpose. Rahim Bux Rajar, general secretary of the village organisation tells TNS that the windmill installed in their village pumps water from 90 feet deep bore for drinking purpose. The structure is very simple and the windmill is easy to operate and maintain, and that also free of cost. Its result is best when the wind speed is 3 metres per second or above. The windmill has the capacity to pump 12000 litres/10 hours a day, he adds. This water is collected in a tank and used by all the households in the village, adds Rahim.

Panhwar tells TNS that it was not an easy task to make people contribute financially to these projects. "These projects could have been fully funded by PPAF. But what we wanted was that people should develop a sense of ownership towards the project. This was not possible without making them invest in it," he adds.

During the visit to village Khan Muhammad Rajar, TNS found out that the locals had formed a highly efficient system to manage village affairs. They had a proper Village Development Organisation (VDO), called Goth Taraqqiyati Tanzeem in Urdu. The organisation maintains all the important records related to the village, accounts, collections from the community and expenses incurred on the maintenance of drip irrigation and windmill projects. It was this VDO that had visited each and every house in the village and asked the inhabitants to contribute financially to these projects.

The case study of this village makes one believe that only those projects attract public interest that have direct benefits for them. Those worked out by policymakers in their air-conditioned rooms, without keeping in view the ground realities, have little or no buyers at all. May be it's for this reason that billions of rupees earmarked for disbursement through Citizen Community Boards (CCBs) are lying unutilised all over the country.

 

Benazir Bhutto in her recent article wrote that May 12, 2007 was one of the darkest days in Pakistan. That implies there were many more darkest days. How many? Commenting on her article some one opined that the common Pakistanis have so far seen 60 (365) = 21900 dark days. This figure shows that we were in trouble right from the beginning. It is a true opinion. As a nation we have not seen in political context any good day in the last sixty years. We are waiting for the one. One thing is for sure that it will not come, if our political uncertainty continues.

Millions of automobiles, mobile phones and TVs do not represent our real picture. None of us, from president to peon, is certain about the next day. Who will end this uncertainty, the present dispensation or the one that would replace it? None, unless we solve our problems, some of which we had inherited and many were of our own making. The problems remained unresolved because the approach to resolve them was the same that had created most of them.

Some of our problems are no problems at all. Some have immediate solution, and some may take time. Difficulty is with the approach. Kashmir -- whose solution would create more problems -- is not a problem; it has something to do with the vision. The rulers are responsible for finding a solution to the problems. They will do so if they are committed to nation's intellectual and physical growth through a welfare state. They will do so if they are political leaders. Our dilemma is that we have rulers, we do not have politicians.

All of our rulers were and are from upper income groups. They were and are pro-west or religious radicals or generals. All of them including maulanas were and are modern and liberals in their life styles. All of them had and have double standards. They send their children to the grammar schools or abroad while the children of the common Pakistanis study in the madrasas. They do all types of things to accumulate wealth but from ordinary Pakistanis they would demand commitment to the low paid assigned job. They became rulers due to the influence of their assets, land, gold and guns, and also due to their hold over madrasas and shrines. Governance to them means a way to acquire more land, gold and guns, for themselves, and for their kin, cronies, clans and institutions.

All of them wanted and want that the people should live as silent servants or slaves. That is why we spend least on social sector development, particularly education. That is why law is only for the people and not for the rich and the rulers. That is why whosoever talks about real change is treated as a traitor. That is why the most powerful group among rulers, the political-generals and their cronies reacted furiously to the speeches of the lawyers that they made in the seminar held at the Supreme Court auditorium.

For most Pakistanis it was encouraging that for the first time in the history of Pakistan and on such an auspicious forum the real reason for our problems was highlighted. Our approach to take Pakistan as a security state is mother of all problems. If a state is internally weak and has no external threat and is run by the oligarchy, it has to be a security state. It will always remain fearful.

In this age of enlightenment, peoples' revolt is not a remote possibility. It can happen. It is not for nothing that we still have feudalism, tribalism, spiritualism and urban extortions intact, which are instruments to keep the people calm -- as calm as slaves. It is not for nothing that a strong army of six hundred thousand men and a bigger police force protects these instruments. Isn't the civil-military bureaucracy the biggest beneficiary of this exploitative system?

Things worked smoothly till March 9, 2007, for our ruling elites. Then onward lawyers' movement challenged their supremacy. For the first time a large educated fraternity has come out in support of rule of law and a welfare state. That on such a forum 'the approach', the mythical concept of 'security state' was challenged should be taken as the first drop of rain for an apparently politically barren land. We must think about our children and our coming generations and stop misleading the nation with such slogans as Kashmir, Afghanistan, Palestine, Ummah and Hindu hegemony. Our internal weaknesses -- provincial disharmony, economic disparities and absence of politics -- demand immediate and absolute attention.

Distraction has led us to a stage where governance is invisible. Due to poverty, inflation, corruption and joblessness a common citizen is talking about a better life in hell. Under such conditions if the lawyers and judges have started talking about abject poverty and remedy, they deserve appreciation, not censure. It has never happened before. Bhutto's socialist slogan did not mean much. It rather turned a big number of our politically vibrant workers either into opportunists or paupers. Bhutto's entry into the ruling clan was initially due to his feudal background. Later on army patronised him. All that he earnestly did as a ruler was to expand an already oversized army.

An oversized army is the biggest if not the only hurdle in solution of our problems and emergence of a welfare state. And unless there is welfare state, we will continue to live with the dark days.  Benazir Bhutto during her two terms spent huge sums on missiles, tanks, submarines and fighter planes. If she somehow gets third term, would she work for the good of common people? She cannot. Power in our country is transferred with conditions attached. She cannot interfere with the fiscal and foreign policies. Moreover she too is a part of the oligarchic clan. How can she revolt?

Assuming she goes through a metamorphosis and turns into a rebel. In that case the oligarchy will go to any limit to save its interests. It will use all cards -- army, ethnicity, judiciary, media, police, opposition, wealth, treason etc. -- to stop her. Yet, if she fights election with a mission, a pro-people manifesto, she can own the strongest of all cards, the people's support. All that she has to do is to disown the 'security state' concept and take up the ideology of a welfare state, as Aitzaz Ahsan did. His book 'Indus Saga and the Making of Pakistan' in a way favoured the security state perception. He is a different Aitzaz now, a thoughtful leader and a fearless activist. Our experiences of 60 years are enough to conclude that geopolitical dimensions and military might are relevant only either in a homogenous environment or when the people with different identities have economic and social justice. 

It is not going to be that easy for her. She will have to revise Pakistan's policies regarding Kashmir and Afghanistan. She will have to find Pakistan's well being within South Asia, and not in America and Arabia. Moreover she will have to rewrite fiscal equation. She will have to make others realise that external security is dependent on internal strength. She will have to reduce state spending on defence and administration by at least 50 per cent in terms of GDP ratio. She may do it gradually say within a decade, because to transform a security state into a welfare state will take time.

To be a ruler or a politician, to do power-politics or people's politics, this is her choice. In first case she will constantly work under the threat of card game -- even if she remains loyal to the oligarchy. In second case she may not win the coming elections, but even in opposition, she will have a say, and whenever she would win, she would have people's card with her. 

All other cards have dangerous repercussion. Liaqat Ali Khan used bureaucracy and police to maintain his rule, but became a victim of a conspiracy hatched by the same elements of the state. Ayub used army and judiciary, but after a decade army turned against him. Bhutto used army, and Zia used ethnic, judicial, Islamic and biradari cards besides army and American cards, but both had to leave in an abnormal way. In Karachi Benazir used police card and Nawaz used both police and army cards. None worked. MQM became stronger. MQM was used to play ethnic card on May 12, 2007 in support of Musharraf. It did delay for a short while some developments -- arrivals and departures -- but damaged MQM's efforts to become a mainstream party. Musharraf's latest, corps commanders card, explains his increasing vulnerability.

This cruel game of oligarchy's cards will stop only when we will have politicians as our rulers. Let us hope lawyers' movement besides restoring judiciary and national respect produces some politicians as well.

 

ahsanyatu@gmail.com


Perception and reality
By stifling the freedom of expression, the government can at best manipulate the perception of reality and public behaviour but cannot improve the reality itself
By Hussain H Zaidi

Behind the government's attempts to clip the wings of the media by both legal (not necessarily lawful) and extra-legal measures lies the desperation to manipulate the relationship between the reality and perception in Pakistan.

Perception is how we think and feel about the world. It is about how we interpret and reconstruct the social reality. Perception may be close to the reality or divorced from it but is important because human behaviour is determined not by the reality per se but how it is perceived.

The media are a most powerful factor in shaping perceptions. They not only depict the reality but also reconstruct it by presenting and interpreting facts in a particular way. The media can turn a hero into a villain and vice versa. For example, the way Al-Jazira presents Osama Bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda is different from how western media project them. The way the Indian press presents Kashmiri militants is different from how Pakistani press presents them. The way the government-controlled media project the state of the economy, society and politics is different from how independent media present the same.

Though all media reconstruct the reality, they do so differently depending on how independent they are. The more independent a newspaper or TV channel, the more objective is the reality it reconstructs. For the media to be independent, they should be free -- not only of government control but also of a particular ideology. The media which are controlled by the state or wedded to a particular philosophy at best present only half-truths. Hence, the reality they reconstruct is markedly deficient in objectivity. State controlled media leave no stone unturned in extolling the policies and performance of the government. They never let their readers or audience look at the debit side of the government's balance sheet. Media which espouse the cause of capitalism present free market economy as the panacea for all problems in society. Media in thrall of socialist ideals propagate the class system as the root cause of all ills that afflict society. 

Generally speaking, it is the power to reconstruct reality that accounts for the government's love-hate relationship towards the media. The government loves the media, because the latter can help reconstruct the reality the way the former wants. Conversely, the government hates the media, because the latter can reconstruct the reality objectively. Thus the government loves compliant media and hates independent media.

For the government's media managers, the fundamental problem is how to use a carrot and stick policy to turn an independent media into a compliant one. The government takes measures to woo, control, harass and intimidate the media. Such measures may consist in allocating government advertisements, press advice, censorship, physical attacks on media establishments and persons, or complete suppression of a particular channel or newspaper depending on the character of the government, the prevalent political system, the power of the media, and the level of social and economic development.

In a democratic and advanced polity, the measures to control the media are normally subtle and moderate, while in a despotic and backward state, such measures are usually rough and extreme. On balance, a democratic government is far more tolerant of an independent media than a despotic one.

In Pakistan, at best a controlled democracy, governments by and large have been averse to freedom of expression. Successive governments have looked upon a free media anathema to their attempts to reconstruct the reality as they would deem fit and adopted all the available tactics to control them. These tactics notwithstanding, the media have gained in independence. A landmark development is the establishment of private TV channels, which broke the government's monopoly over electronic media. This means that now people can view the counterpoint to which they did not have access previously, that they can see the other side of the picture which had hitherto been invisible to them. All this translates into a far more objective and complete reconstruction of reality than that projected by official channels.

The present government, in a soup because of the lingering politico-constitutional crisis, galloping inflation, large-scale, unemployment and worsening law and order situation, wants to manipulate the relationship between perception and reality. Instead of setting its own house in order and improving the ground reality, it is desperate to improve its popular perception. Examples:

• The government wants people to believe that no real political crisis exists in the country and that any perception of a political crisis is merely an illusion created by an 'irresponsible media'. Therefore, if the media are reined it, the perceptual illusion will disappear. In other words, if the media do not talk about the political crisis, it will cease to exist.

• The government is painting a very rosy picture of the economy: poverty is on the wane, the lot of the common man is fast improving, the real per capita income has substantially gone up, and the vast majority of the people have access to clean drinking water, health and education. For the government, most of the economic problems have as unreal an existence as that of the political crisis.

• The ruling party is propagating that those who are critical of the increasing political and economic role of a key institution and insist on its public accountability are enemies of the state and the only way to deal with them is to 'shoot' them.

• The regime wants all and sundry to believe that the security, integrity and economic life of the country will be endangered if there is a change at the top. Therefore, those who are voicing for such a change are bent upon playing havoc with national security and the economy.

Only a government controlled media can present, and is presenting, the above picture of the state, society and the economy. On the other hand, the media which have even a modicum of independence and social responsibility will present, and are presenting, a different picture, which is closer to reality. It is such media that are a thorn in the government's side and are facing its wrath. The message is clear: "Either you are with us or against us." Either the media reconstruct the reality as the government wants or face the music.

Obviously, the government is barking up the wrong tree. By stifling the freedom of expression, the government can at best manipulate the perception of reality and public behaviour but cannot improve the reality itself. And it is the improvement of reality that matters for the real stakeholders, viz the people of Pakistan. Whether it is poverty alleviation, strengthening of democratic institutions, or accountability of the high and mighty, the job is done only by addressing the real issues and not by manipulating their perception. No doubt, it is the right of the government to trumpet its achievements. But it is also its duty to acknowledge its failings and failures, which is the first step towards their rectification.

E-mail: hussainhzaidi@yahoo.com

 


Emerging food markets and small farmers
Emerging food markets in South Asia present opportunities as well as hazards for small producers
By Aoun Sahi

For generations, Pakistanis have shopped for food and groceries at open markets and from roadside vendors. But the trend is now changing as some superstores chains are catering to the country's growing middle-class. These emerging food markets have changed the pattern of food consumption and consumer habits.

Mudassar Ali, a vegetable seller in Kasur pura and adjacent areas in Lahore, is slowly wheels his cart back home. His day begins at four in the morning, when he sets out for the wholesale vegetable market a 30-minute walk from his house. From there, it's another two hours to the market where he tries to get best products available and then in the next four or five hours, sells these vegetables by visiting different streets in his area. But the past few months have been disastrous for him. A new superstore was opened in his area of business and he lost almost half of his customers, even the ones he considered 'permanent'. "I am struggling to sell my vegetables. Whatever is left at the end of the day is sold at half the price or simply discarded. I cannot store them," he says. He is not the only who is facing this situation in Lahore. According to him, many of the vendors and small shops are facing a similar situation.

According to the website, PlanetRetail.net, super and hyper markets are dominating the markets all over the world, and 60 to 65 per cent of buying and selling is done through them. At present, the retail sector, according to World Bank statistics, is contributing 6-12 per cent to the world GDP and its share in international trade is US$8 trillion. The processed food consumption is on the rise in the lower-income countries by about 28 per cent per year. It means that the target markets for the super-stores right now are the low-income countries where the middle-class base is widening. The statistics further reveal that highest growth-rate (48 percent) is observed in breakfast cereals in low-income countries. According to the website, Pakistan, with a population over 160 million, is the 9th largest consumer market for food.

According to household survey, an average Pakistani spends 42 per cent of his income on food items. Experts think that these days, preserved food is being preferred to fresh food, both by superstores and consumers. "For superstores it has more shelf life while for consumer it is more nutritious and ready to eat," says Dr Abid Qayyum Sulahri, Research Fellow and Head of Globalisation and Rural Livelihood Program at Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI). According to him, Pakistan, in 2005-06, imported processed food worth $0.5 billion but in 2006-07 the import bill of processed food commodities has increased to $2 billion. Most of this processed food is being sold by superstores. The situation is similar in many other low-income countries where the food processing industry is doing a business of over $3 trillion every year. Because of this, a multi-country and multi-donor research initiative, led by International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), UK 'Re-governing Markets' has been launched.

According to Dr Abid, the basic idea of this research is to study the success and failure of small farmers or producers to integrate them in emerging food markets. "The purpose of this study is to learn from those developing countries where modern agro food markets have emerged fully, such as in Latin America, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia Turkey and to recommend policy measures for more recent markets like India, Pakistan and China, because due to the increase in per capita income and liberalisation of markets, food patterns have changed in these countries." The other purpose of the research is to know whether the countries, where modern agro based markets have emerged, are able to integrate small farmers or not.

In South Asia, SDPI is conducting this research and is trying to intervene on different policy levels regarding emerging food markets in South Asia. "We are trying to influence policy matters on public and private (industrial level) levels to make them aware of the most recent phenomenon in food markets; while, at the same time, we are also trying to consult farmers to see their practices. We will try to change their cropping pattern according to the needs of the emerging food markets," he tells TNS. "At present, in Pakistan, we are facing greatest resistance from public sector."

Small farmers in Pakistan are facing a lot of problems in integration in the new atmosphere and the real beneficiaries have been middlemen. Dr Ali Abbas Qazilbash, National Expert - Laboratory Accreditation of United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), believes that one reason is that in Pakistan agricultural research is based on pre-harvest statistics and there is no guide for farmers after that. "If a farmer has information about markets and the standards and gets his products accredited, he can dictate the price and there is no harm in value-addition to products," he tells TNS. He urges the need for research-oriented interventions in the sector. He also stresses the importance of cooperation among various government departments and civil society organization with the similar objectives and mandates. "Extension system should be in functional form, and should be able to deliver at the grassroots. There should be a link between research and farmers through efficient extension services to enable them to exploit the situation to their favour," he says.

But small farmers' representatives believe that it is hard for small farmers in recent situation to exploit the situation. Shujaat Ali Khan, secretary Sustainable Agriculture Action Group (SAAG), stresses the need for polishing entrepreneurial skills of small producers. "Our small farmers should have market information and should know how to make their products market-oriented. But because most of small farmers in Pakistan are under huge pressures and illiterate, they stand to be more marginalized in the emerging food markets," he says. Shujaat thinks that as most of the policies in Pakistan are made for landlords, who own more than 70 percent of total agricultural land in Pakistan, while small farmers are neglected. ôI think policy-makers should give importance to small farmers as well," he says.

According to Shujaat most of the agro industry is in the urban areas and if farmers can be provide with the food processing and storage technology, it can increase their income and enhance their bargaining power. "Because most of the agro products perish within one or two days, farmers are forced to sell them on very low rates. Recently, in the Pakistani market both producers and consumers are suffering. Producers are forced to sell their products at cheap rates while consumer has to buy it on very high rates, while most of the profits are going to middlemen and industrialists." Shujaat thinks that the emerging food markets cannot do anything for small farmers, if they are not trained. Shujaat stresses proper and objective-oriented harmonization among departments, institutions and ministries to avoid horizontal overlapping in agricultural sector.

Dr. Wajid Pirzada, Chief WTO Cell, Minsitry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, says that there may be some overlapping in public sector because there are many departments working for agriculture and farmers in country. He thinks that contract and cooperate forming is the best solution to increase bargaining power of small producers in emerging food markets.

 

|Home|Daily Jang|The News|Sales & Advt|Contact Us|

BACK ISSUES