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Editorial
management The Layyah
experience devolution Taking
the lead A faulty system
The recent warning
by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), that Pakistan may be
heading for an early monsoon — as early as June 15 — leading to
torrential rains and hence floods, has sent the alarm bells ringing. Or at
least it should. The authority has declared 29 districts vulnerable and
claims that “some 29 million people would be facing flood risk in the next
monsoon”. This issuance of a timely
warning is ironically a measure of the efficiency of an authority which is
not exactly known for it. But the truth is that the country is not ready for
such an eventuality a third consecutive year. Normally, the floods
season is late July and August but an early monsoon leading to early floods
may mean that the preparations that are supposed to be in place some time
later have to be put in order rather early on. Floods of the scale that we
saw in the last two years are a natural disaster. But, in both years, the
safeguards that we were supposed to have were found to be wanting. Of course, there are
lessons to be learnt from the past experience which, in our case, is not too
long ago. In fact, we are still struggling with the rehabilitation process
after the last year’s floods in Sindh. Of the short term measures that
needed to be taken (and which were ignored over the long term) were the
Irrigation Department’s job of strengthening and repair of dykes and spurs
etc. These were said to have maximized the losses. In the event of the
disaster, in the last two years, the usual complaint was the refusal of the
people to evacuate their homes. Now is the time to find out if a mechanism
has been put in place to give sound alternatives to the vulnerable
communities should a similar disaster strike again. There are related issues
like deforestation that trigger climate change of this kind and we must be
alive to it. The institutional
mechanism in place post devolution now boasts of PDMAs and DDMAs and their
role and efficiency need a serious appraisal in view of the recent warning.
Lastly, the role of international NGOs in managing floods must be taken into
account simply because it was substantial in the previous years. All these
issues are part of today’s Special Report.
management Warning signs Drastic measures are required to improve the level of preparedness to manage flood waters and minimise the magnitude of a disaster By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed The recent MET
department warning about abnormal rainfall in the upcoming monsoon has given
rise to several questions. For example, how prepared is the country to face
such a calamity? Have the recommendations made by the various flood
commissions been followed in spirit? Have the affected people of the
previous floods been accommodated? Is there a proper mechanism in place to
manage excess water? And, have dams and spurs been repaired to serve the
purpose? As rain water takes little
time to reach the plains from the hills and from the plains to the sea, the
authorities dealing with floods practically do not have enough time to plan.
This aspect has been
mentioned in a report, titled ‘Flood Disaster Management’, by Zulqarnain
Aamir, former Director General (Relief), Punjab. Aamir explains the
phenomenon in the following words: “The heavy rains in the monsoons and
the melting snow in the summers bring an uninterrupted flow of water which
finds little resistance from the scanty 4 per cent vegetation in the shape
of forests.” The rivers in Punjab, he
further writes, have become shallow due to the lengthening of their channels
through a meandering course and continuous silting. Besides, human
encroachment of the flood plains has also increased the flood hazards as
excess water is bound to spill over to inhabited lands. This holds true also for
the other low riparian province Sindh where the breaking of dykes increased
the scale of the disaster. The situation calls for
devising a comprehensive water management plan that includes strengthening
the dykes and controlling the flow of water. A judicial commission, formed
by the Sindh government in 2010 to look into the matter, also recommended
drastic measures to improve the situation and flood preparedness level. The situation at the
moment is that the Sindh government is working on water schemes that cost
Rs5 billion. Initially, it had submitted 76 schemes worth Rs16 billion to
the federal flood commission but only Rs5 billion were earmarked for the
urgently required schemes. TNS talked to different
people to find out about the reasons behind the inefficacy of water
management plans devised over the years and ways to make them effective in
the future. According to Zulfiqar
Halepoto, a Sindh based doctoral research fellow on river diplomacy and
trans-boundary water cooperation between Pakistan and India, there are
several structures, regulatory systems and irrigation networks to control
the flow of river water. For example, these options are available along the
Indus River which enters Sindh at Kashmore and falls into the Arabian Sea. There is a large number of
dykes also that are well-settled and under control. “Only when there is
the pressure of unexpected waters, the powerful and the influential try to
save their lands and riches and give cuts to dykes and divert waters.” It happened in the 2010
floods when more than 25 towns of Sindh were inundated due to breaches in
several dykes, says Halepoto. Besides, whenever there is fear of a lapse of
surplus budget or funding with the irrigation department, the irrigation
officers intentionally give cuts to dykes to justify the allocation of
maintenance and expenditure budgets. He believes Pakistan still
lacks a comprehensive and integrated water management mechanism due to the
politicisation of water sector development. This management includes several
aspects including flood control and other issues. There is no foresight to
predict the future threats of climate change, including glacier melt and
other environmental hazards and challenges which are going to harm
livelihoods and the people and the land of this country. “There is a lack
of trust among riparian states, especially between Sindh and Punjab on the
issues of dams, water sharing formulas and distributions.” He suggests rain and flood
waters should be regulated through small structures at district levels. Halepoto says there are
already a lot of mandatory forums meant to regulate waters, such as the NDMA,
the Flood Commission, Wapda, IRSA, Provincial Irrigation & Power
Authorities and the PDMAs. But there is a serious lack of coordination and
political will and commitment to perform legal, constitutional and moral
duties. “Now, after the 18th Amendment, water and power is a provincial
subject and there is a need to have an integrated national level plan having
provincial bodies on board to tackle the floods better.” Ahmed Kamal, Member,
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), and spokesman National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) tells TNS the authority has sent instructions to all
provincial chief secretaries and lined up related technical and provincial
departments to ensure preparedness regarding the warnings issued by the MET.
Kamal says the press
release issued by the MET department is not a sign of an alarming situation;
in fact, it’s a routine dispatch, explaining the existing situation in
different districts of the country. The monsoon forecast which the
department will issue around the second fortnight of June will give a
clearer picture. On the issue of the
strengthening of dykes and spurs in the provinces, Kamal says it is the duty
of the provincial irrigation departments to inspect them with the help of
relevant army corps. If they find that the condition of a dyke is critical
at some point, they must have it repaired with the help of the operation and
maintenance fund from the irrigation departments. On the inspection and
monitoring of the strengthening process of the dykes, Kamal says the army
corps and the provincial irrigation department have the capacity for that,
but to make the system more effective, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC)
and the PDMAs have also been asked to monitor the processes.
The Layyah
experience The floods of 2010
hit the fertile lands of Layyah District in southern Punjab hard, displacing
hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. The death toll was
particularly high here as affectees were reluctant to move from their abodes
despite repeated warnings issued by the government authorities. This is where River Indus
expands in width, around three kilometers, and flows majestically. In 2010,
it swelled up to 18 kilometers at some places. But last year, in 2011,
the floods spared Layyah. Most of the damage recorded was in Sindh and
Balochistan. And this year again the flood warning issued by the Met
department has placed the area, including Layyah, in high risk zone. Two years down the road,
Layyah’s locals, rescuers, relief providers and state functionaries seem
to have learnt something from the disaster. Fortunately enough for the
people, their representatives are organised in the form of bodies like Sindh
Wasaib Forum and Chenab Forum and are coordinating with other stakeholders
to devise flood preparedness plans. “These are indigenous
people. There are around 200 small organisations including community based
organisations (CBOs), village bodies, muhalla bodies that constitute these
forums,” says Javed Iqbal, Manager, Humanatarian at Doaba Foundation, a
relief organisation which has presence in Multan, Muzaffargarh, Layyah and
Jhang. The experience of 2010 has
created awareness among the people and they are demanding the district
management to set up a flood control room in the city which should work 24
hours a day. They are also supervising compaction processes at dykes and
identifying places where they appear to be weak. District Layyah Disaster
Risk Management (DRM) focal person Saeed Chishti believes the district will
be better prepared this time as the locals have taken initiatives
themselves. He says the government functionaries are consulting people and
asking for solutions from them. Chishti adds they have done away with
conventional methods of warning announcements, “God forbid if there is any
emergency, text messages will be sent to nambardars, school teachers and CBO
members to avoid any delay in communication.” Two major problems faced
during the evacuation process back in 2010 were: shortage of boats and
people’s reluctance to leave their homes and to abandon their livestock. These aspects are being
taken care of, says Chishti, adding private boats like those available with
Doaba will also form part of the fleet and each boat will have a rescue 1122
official present on it in uniform along with a trained member of the
community. Vaccination of animals will be done in time, there will be a
place to keep them and fodder will be provided by the government
authorities. Earlier, lack of these
facilities had forced flood affectees to sell off their cattle and poultry
at throwaway prices, mostly to swindlers. Javed Iqbal however feels
some matters are still not clear. For example, how much funds are lying in
P-4 account of the district government. It is the amount which can be
accessed and used during emergencies and financial settlements can be done
later on. Besides, he adds accurate consolidated data on the exact number of
houses, animals and agricultural lands at risk is neither available with the
government nor NGOs. Iqbal tells The News
recently the government is focused on immediate relief work but often
ignores post-disaster emergencies. For example, unhygienic conditions at
camp and absence of latrines lead to spread of epidemics which can claim
more lives than flood itself. “We have 500 temporary latrines with us
which are sufficient for 25,000 people for a month.” He says they are also
familiarising the state representatives, rescuers and potential providers
about the local customs and tradition. “For instance, here men prefer to
keep their women in places sinking fast into flood waters than expose them
to strangers’ in relief camps where their privacy is compromised. They
say, ‘We can’t go from a river flood to a flood of disgrace’, is a
common saying,” he adds. This, Iqbal says, was a
major reason people did not move out of their abodes. So he suggests camps
should be designed in such a manner that privacy is not compromised. Muhammad Aslam, Chairman
Wasaib Forum says they organise local people in huge numbers and present
their collective demands to the government. They trust their own people than
those coming from other areas. “We have identified places in no-risk areas
to stock food and pointed out new spots to build dykes. If our demands are
not met we raise voice and let people and the state know what we want.” — Shahzada Irfan Ahmed
The provincial
disaster management authorities (PDMAs) were established in the year 2006
when, under the National Disaster Management Ordinance (NDMO 2006), a legal
and institutional framework for disaster management at the federal,
provincial and district levels was chalked out. However, the PDMAs became
more pronounced — as well as independent — after the promulgation of the
18th Amendment. And, in 2010, the NDMO was made into an Act and the District
Disaster Management Units (DDMUs) were set up in order to further facilitate
the workings of the PDMAs. These bodies are responsible for forming
contingency plans, with the involvement of the local populations and civil
society organisations, to look after the dykes at rivers and canals meant to
avert floods, to disseminate early warnings to local communities and to
conduct rescue operations in the event of a disaster and rehabilitation
efforts later on. In order to serve their
stated purpose, the abovementioned bodies need trained staff at least at the
district levels, besides heavy machinery and funding. But so far, the PDMAs
remain understaffed with bare minimum funds at their disposal. The government of
Balochistan was the first to allocate Rs2 billion to the provincial disaster
fund in its 2010-11 budget and another Rs3 billion the next year. Where the
entire budget for disaster fund in 2010-11
lapsed, the current financial year saw only Rs16 million going to the
PDMA which the latter has used up in paying salaries to its staff. The
officials at PDMA Balochistan believe the rest of the budget for the year
will also lapse as the new budget for the province is presented in a week or
so. The situation, sadly, is
almost the same in other provinces. Sindh was the most
affected by a flash flood in 2010 and the following year. The role of the
PDMA came under fire when the organisation failed to gauge the magnitude of
the disaster and, actually, initially refused to take the help of donor
agencies, saying it had sufficient means to tackle the situation of its own.
Their claims were proved wrong as the province suffered colossal destruction
and loss of life. “The PDMA in Sindh has
not been able to come up with a contingency plan for a single district so
far,” says Fida Soomro, a leading expert of disaster risk reduction,
talking to TNS. “Two weeks back, a Rohi Canal breach resulted in huge
losses in around 45 villages. Both the PDMA and the DDMAs could nothing to
avert the disaster. It clearly shows that the dykes are weak in Sindh and
the disaster management authorities have failed to strengthen them.” Soomro adds that frequent
changes in the administrative set-up of the PDMA Sindh haven’t helped
anyone. “Since 2010, the director general of the PDMA has been changed
four times over.” It is basically the DDMA
in each district which is supposed to conduct an early-recovery and relief
operation in the event of a disaster. Under the National Disaster Management
Act 2010, the DDMA is the most important unit when it comes to handling
disasters. “But they do not have offices in all districts of Sindh. The
district governments, under the Local Government Ordinance, were required to
allocate two per cent of their budget for disaster management, but the
ordinance was repealed and the DDMAs are now headed by the DCOs who have no
budget to run these bodies.” Soomro who claims to have
recently visited 24 disaster-prone districts situated on both sides of the
Indus, starting from Mianwali to Thatta, believes if the region receives a
little above normal rains, the result would be more devastating than in
2010-11. A deputy commissioner
posted in Sindh who is also the head of the DDMA in his district, tells TNS
on condition of anonymity that so far no contingency plan has been evolved
for the district. “We’ve not had a single meeting of the DDMA over the
past one year. “Resources are the main
issue. We’ve not been given a budget for disaster management. Yes, there
are a few officials of the DDMA but they don’t have enough office space
and practically just one telephone line.” According to an estimate,
from 2005 till 2011, the natural disasters that struck Pakistan have cost
the country over $18 billion. However, the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank say an initial investment of just $27 million by the
government could repair damages from future disasters. “Pakistan has allocated
more than this sum to pay for the National Assembly expenses in the last two
years alone,” says Dr Arif Azad who co-authored the detailed report
‘Ready or Not: Pakistan’s resilience to disaster one year on, from
floods’ for Oxfam in 2011. This initial investment,
followed by a sustained allocation of resources, could include reorganising
the existing parallel disaster management bodies, providing them assistance
and hardware support in the 30 most vulnerable districts and longer-term
flood risk mapping. According to Dr Azad, the
need for better preparedness is recognised at all government levels, but
“on ground nothing is done to that effect. There are no political
governments at district and tehsil levels, which is why there is no
political ownership of the DDMAs. It’s the DCOs who are heading these
organisations. In most districts, the locals are not even aware that the
DDMAs — or, for that matter — the PDMAs exist.” Experts are of the view
that many constitutional and legal issues have not been taken care of. The
National Disaster Management Act 2010 makes a renewed legislative commitment
that the whole spectrum of disaster would be brought before the PDMAs and
the DDMAs with the old relief departments like the provincial relief cells
and emergency relief cells at the federal level absorbed into it. But this has not been done
and, in almost all provinces, parallel relief bodies still exist. The experts also believe
the question of delivery of services will come later as presently there are
a number of lacunas in the law that need to be addressed. “We cannot fix
responsibility under the present rules and regulations. It is diluted
because of legislative confusion. The PDMAs were established under the
legislation passed in 2006 when there was a totally different model of
governance,” says Amjad Bhatti who has been working on disaster management
for the past many years. “After the 18th Amendment the relationship
between federation and provinces has changed completely. So, we need to make
drastic legal changes in the laws that govern the NDMA and the PDMAs.” Tahir Munir Minhas,
Director General, PDMA Balochistan, says one major problem the organisation
is faced with is the capacity building of the staff. “There is no trained
staff available to us,” he says. “I am also a civil servant and have the
minimum knowledge of disaster management. We have been relying totally on
different training workshops conducted by the UN agencies and other
non-government organisations.” Tahir claims that the
PDMAs are in a phase of transition all across the country. “In Balochistan,
we have a provincial disaster fund in place, though the budget allocated for
it in the last two years has not been shifted to us. But we’ve been
working on setting up a different bank account of the PDMA and, hopefully,
from next year onwards our budget shall be transferred to that account. “We have yet to define
the PDMA service rules and procedures, and also plan to create a disaster
management service cadre. But it takes time to do things in the public
sector.”
Taking
the lead Pakistan is a
disaster prone country and has seen flash floods as many as 67 times since
its inception in 1947. The UN declared year 2010’s flood as the greatest
humanitarian crisis in the history of the country, and last year’s deluge
reportedly affected a population of 5.3 million and inundated 1.7 million
acres of arable land. Every time, the devastation was beyond the capacity of
the government to handle, placing a great deal of onus on the local and
international non-government organisations (INGOs) which responded quite
effectively and won the trust of the local population and the world alike.
Come to think of it, 80 per cent of the international aid in 2011’s flood
was possible though them. In the event of another flood this year, the local
and international NGOs will again be looked to for help, as the government
tainted with huge corruption scandals may not be able to spare enough funds.
TNS contacted some NGOs to
find out about their preparedness and learnt that they haven’t any
specific contingency plans chalked out, but several of them are working in
Pakistan on sustainable projects and others are waiting to get funds in
order to resume long-term projects. There are bad signals as
well. The International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC), an INGO working in 80
countries with its 12,000-plus staff, recently suspended its activities
across Pakistan following the killing of one of its staffers, Khalil Dale,
in Balochistan on April 29 this year. Khalil was abducted in January 2012
from outside the ICRC’s Quetta office. “After the death of
Dale, we have temporarily suspended our operations in Pakistan,” says
Najam us Saqib, ICRC Communications Officer. “All offices of the ICRC
across the country, except for its head office in Islamabad, have been
closed. “We are reviewing the situation and further decision will be taken
after some time.” The ICRC, whose global
head office is in Switzerland, has always responded wholeheartedly whenever
a natural disaster hit Pakistan. According to Najam, the organisation
provided food, shelter and medical aid to the flood victims in
Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan and Sindh in 2010. The following year, it
provided humanitarian aid to “15,000 families in Sindh through Pakistan
Red Crescent Society.” The efforts of the local
NGOs have won them accolades as well as public trust. Edhi Foundation is one
such organisation. Talking to TNS, Abdul Sattar Edhi, says his organisation
is fully equipped and ready to respond in the event of a calamity in any
part of the country. When asked about the
Foundation’s strategy, a humble but resolute Edhi says, “We haven’t
made any specific plans, but we are fully operational and our infrastructure
is so strong that our relief workers will be out there to help out their
countrymen.” The relief and
rehabilitation efforts of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR), Pakistan, were commendable in the floods of 2010 and 2011. Qaisar
Khan Afridi, Public Information Associate, UNHCR, says the UN refugee agency
assisted hundreds and thousands of people by providing them with tents and
non-food items like blankets, kitchen sets, buckets, quilts, jerry cans and
plastic sheets. Talking about the
agency’s strategy in case there are flash floods this year, he says, “We
always have stocks of relief supplies and contingency plans in place to meet
with such a situation, if the government asks for assistance.” He further says the
UNHCR’s flood response interventions target the most vulnerable among the
victims, including people with disabilities, women without a male guardian,
and families unable to rebuild their own houses. “The agency has completed
3,838 one-room shelters in Punjab, 6,000 in Sindh, 8,550 in Balochistan and
14,000 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. “Last week, the UNHCR
joined the local authorities in handing over ownership rights to 400
newly-constructed one-room shelters to a fishing community left homeless by
the devastating floods in Pakistan in 2010. The 400 shelters are part of
nearly 4,000 one-room houses that the organisation has constructed for flood
victims in Multan, Bhawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, DG Khan, Rajanpur,
Muzaffargarh,and other districts of Punjab.” Keeping in view
Pakistan’s disaster prone condition, many INGOs are making efforts to
enhance their capacity and improve their infrastructure so that they can
work on long term basis. Their efforts will definitely be supportive to
Pakistan in any such calamity. Bushra, a representative
of Qatar Charity, an organisation which started its operations in Pakistan
in 1992, tells TNS about QC’s plans to “expand our operations and
enhance our capacity. For this purpose, we are in contact with the various
UN bodies for funding. Proposals are in the pipeline and their outcome is
expected soon.” A secure environment for
the staff of the INGOs is of vital importance and the government’s failure
on this front would not only hamper the ongoing rehabilitation efforts but
also put any future humanitarian assistance at stake. Instead of appreciating
and supporting the efforts of these NGOs, the government seems to have
adopted an indifferent attitude towards them. Prime Minister Gillani is said
to have remarked, “80 percent of the flood aid comes through the NGOs and
they will misuse at least half of it. This could instead be spent on
acquiring bullet-proof cars and luxury expenses, as if those who work in the
NGOs are ministers.”
A
faulty system Pakistan’s flood
warning system is quite complex and involves a host of departments like
Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), Wapda, SUPARCO, Federal Flood
Commission, Indus Water Commission, the national and provincial disaster
management authorities, provincial irrigation departments and district
officials. This system has not proved to be efficient in gathering and
disseminating flood warnings in time. Currently, the meteorology
department can only predict weather patterns of up to four days in advance,
weather radar systems are limited and they do not cover our eastern rivers,
catchment areas in most parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit Baltistan and
Kashmir and important coastal areas of Balochistan which are vulnerable to
cyclones. Saleem Sheikh, a leading
Pakistani journalist working on climate change issues and disasters,
believes that Pakistan’s major issue is adoption of modern technology.
“In Pakistan, we have weather monitoring stations at five glaciers only
while we have more than 4000 glaciers in the country. We have only three
radar observation stations at Jhelum and its tributaries, while only six
such stations to monitor flooding at Indus River. So, the current flood
management system only meets requirements for the Indus River flood plains
in Punjab and Sindh. No system exists in KP or Balochistan to forecast or
monitor the flash floods that have become more frequent in these provinces
and in South Punjab. In some of the most
sensitive catchment areas in KP during the 2010 floods, we do not have even
manual flood observation system. Local communities are needed to be
integrated in flood warning systems.” Saleem says that increased
investment in early warning systems could save countless lives and prevent
huge damages. “Pakistan also needs to increase its cooperation with the
World Meteorological Organisation and the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasting, making use of their data to prepare weather forecasts
and flood warnings.” A well coordinated but
less complex early warning system for floods that integrates flood
forecasting and monitoring and dissemination of information to vulnerable
communities is essential. “We have a problem with
the service delivery record of the NDMA, the PDMAs and local authorities at
district level in this regard,” he says. A study shows that the
2010 floods in Pakistan could have been predicted if the data which
originated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)
had been processed and fed into a hydrological model, which takes terrain
into account. “People don’t understand the power of modern environmental
prediction,” said Peter Webster, a professor of earth and atmospheric
science at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and lead author of
the study, in July 2011. “The magnitude of the
disaster could have been minimised… If we were working with Pakistan, they
would have known 8 to 10 days in advance that the floods were coming.” Peter also spoke of a
prospective forecasting system in Pakistan that would cost a few million
dollars to set up but as little as $100,000 a year, once operational. Muhammad Riaz, chief
meteorologist of PMD, admits his department cannot forecast weather patterns
more than four days in advance. “For most of the areas in KP and GB we can
only predict floods for 6-8 hours in advance. We have some Radar
Observations System on the western side of Jhelum while its eastern side
falls in India and we get information from India only through the Indus
Water Commission. It is true that we need to strengthen our observation
stations.” Riaz also says PMD and
NDMA have been working on some projects with the help of Japan and the UN to
strengthen their flood warning system. “For the past 2-3 years, different
departments working on flood warning have started to coordinate well. It
took them millions of rupees to set up one weather observation station
upstream. “Pakistan needs to strengthen its radar network and ground
observation system and enhance the numerical model to predict floods well in
advance.” — Aoun Sahi
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