Editorial 
The recent warning by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), that Pakistan may be heading for an early monsoon — as early as June 15 — leading to torrential rains and hence floods, has sent the alarm bells ringing. Or at least it should. The authority has declared 29 districts vulnerable and claims that “some 29 million people would be facing flood risk in the next monsoon”.  

management
Warning signs
Drastic measures are required to improve the level of
preparedness to manage flood waters and minimise the 
magnitude of a disaster
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed  
The recent MET department warning about abnormal rainfall in the upcoming monsoon has given rise to several questions. For example, how prepared is the country to face such a calamity? Have the recommendations made by the various flood commissions been followed in spirit? Have the affected people of the previous floods been accommodated? Is there a proper mechanism in place to manage excess water? And, have dams and spurs been repaired to serve the purpose?  

The Layyah experience
The locals have learnt a few lessons from the 2010 floods  
The floods of 2010 hit the fertile lands of Layyah District in southern Punjab hard, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. The death toll was particularly high here as affectees were reluctant to move from their abodes despite repeated warnings issued by the government authorities.  
This is where River Indus expands in width, around three kilometers, and flows majestically. In 2010, it swelled up to 18 kilometers at some places.  

Taking the lead
The local and international NGOs respond effectively in the event of a natural
calamity, but the security concerns can hamper their humanitarian efforts
By Mohammad Awais  
Pakistan is a disaster prone country and has seen flash floods as many as 67 times since its inception in 1947. The UN declared year 2010’s flood as the greatest humanitarian crisis in the history of the country, and last year’s deluge reportedly affected a population of 5.3 million and inundated 1.7 million acres of arable land. Every time, the devastation was beyond the capacity of the government to handle, placing a great deal of onus on the local and international non-government organisations (INGOs) which responded quite effectively and won the trust of the local population and the world alike. Come to think of it, 80 per cent of the international aid in 2011’s flood was possible though them. In the event of another flood this year, the local and international NGOs will again be looked to for help, as the government tainted with huge corruption scandals may not be able to spare enough funds.  

A faulty system
A well-coordinated early warning system that
integrates flood forecasting and monitoring as well as dissemination of information to vulnerable communities is the need of the time  
Pakistan’s flood warning system is quite complex and involves a host of departments like Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), Wapda, SUPARCO, Federal Flood Commission, Indus Water Commission, the national and provincial disaster management authorities, provincial irrigation departments and district officials. This system has not proved to be efficient in gathering and disseminating flood warnings in time.  

 

 






Editorial

The recent warning by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), that Pakistan may be heading for an early monsoon — as early as June 15 — leading to torrential rains and hence floods, has sent the alarm bells ringing. Or at least it should. The authority has declared 29 districts vulnerable and claims that “some 29 million people would be facing flood risk in the next monsoon”.

This issuance of a timely warning is ironically a measure of the efficiency of an authority which is not exactly known for it. But the truth is that the country is not ready for such an eventuality a third consecutive year.

Normally, the floods season is late July and August but an early monsoon leading to early floods may mean that the preparations that are supposed to be in place some time later have to be put in order rather early on. Floods of the scale that we saw in the last two years are a natural disaster. But, in both years, the safeguards that we were supposed to have were found to be wanting.

Of course, there are lessons to be learnt from the past experience which, in our case, is not too long ago. In fact, we are still struggling with the rehabilitation process after the last year’s floods in Sindh. Of the short term measures that needed to be taken (and which were ignored over the long term) were the Irrigation Department’s job of strengthening and repair of dykes and spurs etc. These were said to have maximized the losses.

In the event of the disaster, in the last two years, the usual complaint was the refusal of the people to evacuate their homes. Now is the time to find out if a mechanism has been put in place to give sound alternatives to the vulnerable communities should a similar disaster strike again. There are related issues like deforestation that trigger climate change of this kind and we must be alive to it.

The institutional mechanism in place post devolution now boasts of PDMAs and DDMAs and their role and efficiency need a serious appraisal in view of the recent warning. Lastly, the role of international NGOs in managing floods must be taken into account simply because it was substantial in the previous years. All these issues are part of today’s Special Report.

 

 

 

management
Warning signs
Drastic measures are required to improve the level of
preparedness to manage flood waters and minimise the 
magnitude of a disaster
By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

The recent MET department warning about abnormal rainfall in the upcoming monsoon has given rise to several questions. For example, how prepared is the country to face such a calamity? Have the recommendations made by the various flood commissions been followed in spirit? Have the affected people of the previous floods been accommodated? Is there a proper mechanism in place to manage excess water? And, have dams and spurs been repaired to serve the purpose?

As rain water takes little time to reach the plains from the hills and from the plains to the sea, the authorities dealing with floods practically do not have enough time to plan.

This aspect has been mentioned in a report, titled ‘Flood Disaster Management’, by Zulqarnain Aamir, former Director General (Relief), Punjab. Aamir explains the phenomenon in the following words: “The heavy rains in the monsoons and the melting snow in the summers bring an uninterrupted flow of water which finds little resistance from the scanty 4 per cent vegetation in the shape of forests.”

The rivers in Punjab, he further writes, have become shallow due to the lengthening of their channels through a meandering course and continuous silting. Besides, human encroachment of the flood plains has also increased the flood hazards as excess water is bound to spill over to inhabited lands.

This holds true also for the other low riparian province Sindh where the breaking of dykes increased the scale of the disaster.

The situation calls for devising a comprehensive water management plan that includes strengthening the dykes and controlling the flow of water. A judicial commission, formed by the Sindh government in 2010 to look into the matter, also recommended drastic measures to improve the situation and flood preparedness level.

The situation at the moment is that the Sindh government is working on water schemes that cost Rs5 billion. Initially, it had submitted 76 schemes worth Rs16 billion to the federal flood commission but only Rs5 billion were earmarked for the urgently required schemes.

TNS talked to different people to find out about the reasons behind the inefficacy of water management plans devised over the years and ways to make them effective in the future.

According to Zulfiqar Halepoto, a Sindh based doctoral research fellow on river diplomacy and trans-boundary water cooperation between Pakistan and India, there are several structures, regulatory systems and irrigation networks to control the flow of river water. For example, these options are available along the Indus River which enters Sindh at Kashmore and falls into the Arabian Sea.

There is a large number of dykes also that are well-settled and under control. “Only when there is the pressure of unexpected waters, the powerful and the influential try to save their lands and riches and give cuts to dykes and divert waters.”

It happened in the 2010 floods when more than 25 towns of Sindh were inundated due to breaches in several dykes, says Halepoto. Besides, whenever there is fear of a lapse of surplus budget or funding with the irrigation department, the irrigation officers intentionally give cuts to dykes to justify the allocation of maintenance and expenditure budgets.

He believes Pakistan still lacks a comprehensive and integrated water management mechanism due to the politicisation of water sector development. This management includes several aspects including flood control and other issues. There is no foresight to predict the future threats of climate change, including glacier melt and other environmental hazards and challenges which are going to harm livelihoods and the people and the land of this country. “There is a lack of trust among riparian states, especially between Sindh and Punjab on the issues of dams, water sharing formulas and distributions.”

He suggests rain and flood waters should be regulated through small structures at district levels.

Halepoto says there are already a lot of mandatory forums meant to regulate waters, such as the NDMA, the Flood Commission, Wapda, IRSA, Provincial Irrigation & Power Authorities and the PDMAs. But there is a serious lack of coordination and political will and commitment to perform legal, constitutional and moral duties. “Now, after the 18th Amendment, water and power is a provincial subject and there is a need to have an integrated national level plan having provincial bodies on board to tackle the floods better.”

Ahmed Kamal, Member, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), and spokesman National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) tells TNS the authority has sent instructions to all provincial chief secretaries and lined up related technical and provincial departments to ensure preparedness regarding the warnings issued by the MET.

Kamal says the press release issued by the MET department is not a sign of an alarming situation; in fact, it’s a routine dispatch, explaining the existing situation in different districts of the country. The monsoon forecast which the department will issue around the second fortnight of June will give a clearer picture.

On the issue of the strengthening of dykes and spurs in the provinces, Kamal says it is the duty of the provincial irrigation departments to inspect them with the help of relevant army corps. If they find that the condition of a dyke is critical at some point, they must have it repaired with the help of the operation and maintenance fund from the irrigation departments.

On the inspection and monitoring of the strengthening process of the dykes, Kamal says the army corps and the provincial irrigation department have the capacity for that, but to make the system more effective, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and the PDMAs have also been asked to monitor the processes.

 

 

 

 

The Layyah experience
The locals have learnt a few lessons from the 2010 floods

The floods of 2010 hit the fertile lands of Layyah District in southern Punjab hard, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. The death toll was particularly high here as affectees were reluctant to move from their abodes despite repeated warnings issued by the government authorities.

This is where River Indus expands in width, around three kilometers, and flows majestically. In 2010, it swelled up to 18 kilometers at some places.

But last year, in 2011, the floods spared Layyah. Most of the damage recorded was in Sindh and Balochistan. And this year again the flood warning issued by the Met department has placed the area, including Layyah, in high risk zone.

Two years down the road, Layyah’s locals, rescuers, relief providers and state functionaries seem to have learnt something from the disaster. Fortunately enough for the people, their representatives are organised in the form of bodies like Sindh Wasaib Forum and Chenab Forum and are coordinating with other stakeholders to devise flood preparedness plans.

“These are indigenous people. There are around 200 small organisations including community based organisations (CBOs), village bodies, muhalla bodies that constitute these forums,” says Javed Iqbal, Manager, Humanatarian at Doaba Foundation, a relief organisation which has presence in Multan, Muzaffargarh, Layyah and Jhang.

The experience of 2010 has created awareness among the people and they are demanding the district management to set up a flood control room in the city which should work 24 hours a day. They are also supervising compaction processes at dykes and identifying places where they appear to be weak.

District Layyah Disaster Risk Management (DRM) focal person Saeed Chishti believes the district will be better prepared this time as the locals have taken initiatives themselves. He says the government functionaries are consulting people and asking for solutions from them. Chishti adds they have done away with conventional methods of warning announcements, “God forbid if there is any emergency, text messages will be sent to nambardars, school teachers and CBO members to avoid any delay in communication.”

Two major problems faced during the evacuation process back in 2010 were: shortage of boats and people’s reluctance to leave their homes and to abandon their livestock.

These aspects are being taken care of, says Chishti, adding private boats like those available with Doaba will also form part of the fleet and each boat will have a rescue 1122 official present on it in uniform along with a trained member of the community. Vaccination of animals will be done in time, there will be a place to keep them and fodder will be provided by the government authorities.

Earlier, lack of these facilities had forced flood affectees to sell off their cattle and poultry at throwaway prices, mostly to swindlers.

Javed Iqbal however feels some matters are still not clear. For example, how much funds are lying in P-4 account of the district government. It is the amount which can be accessed and used during emergencies and financial settlements can be done later on. Besides, he adds accurate consolidated data on the exact number of houses, animals and agricultural lands at risk is neither available with the government nor NGOs.

Iqbal tells The News recently the government is focused on immediate relief work but often ignores post-disaster emergencies. For example, unhygienic conditions at camp and absence of latrines lead to spread of epidemics which can claim more lives than flood itself. “We have 500 temporary latrines with us which are sufficient for 25,000 people for a month.”

He says they are also familiarising the state representatives, rescuers and potential providers about the local customs and tradition. “For instance, here men prefer to keep their women in places sinking fast into flood waters than expose them to strangers’ in relief camps where their privacy is compromised. They say, ‘We can’t go from a river flood to a flood of disgrace’, is a common saying,” he adds.

This, Iqbal says, was a major reason people did not move out of their abodes. So he suggests camps should be designed in such a manner that privacy is not compromised.

Muhammad Aslam, Chairman Wasaib Forum says they organise local people in huge numbers and present their collective demands to the government. They trust their own people than those coming from other areas. “We have identified places in no-risk areas to stock food and pointed out new spots to build dykes. If our demands are not met we raise voice and let people and the state know what we want.”

— Shahzada Irfan Ahmed

 

 

The provincial disaster management authorities (PDMAs) were established in the year 2006 when, under the National Disaster Management Ordinance (NDMO 2006), a legal and institutional framework for disaster management at the federal, provincial and district levels was chalked out. However, the PDMAs became more pronounced — as well as independent — after the promulgation of the 18th Amendment. And, in 2010, the NDMO was made into an Act and the District Disaster Management Units (DDMUs) were set up in order to further facilitate the workings of the PDMAs. These bodies are responsible for forming contingency plans, with the involvement of the local populations and civil society organisations, to look after the dykes at rivers and canals meant to avert floods, to disseminate early warnings to local communities and to conduct rescue operations in the event of a disaster and rehabilitation efforts later on.

In order to serve their stated purpose, the abovementioned bodies need trained staff at least at the district levels, besides heavy machinery and funding. But so far, the PDMAs remain understaffed with bare minimum funds at their disposal.

The government of Balochistan was the first to allocate Rs2 billion to the provincial disaster fund in its 2010-11 budget and another Rs3 billion the next year. Where the entire budget for disaster fund in 2010-11  lapsed, the current financial year saw only Rs16 million going to the PDMA which the latter has used up in paying salaries to its staff. The officials at PDMA Balochistan believe the rest of the budget for the year will also lapse as the new budget for the province is presented in a week or so.

The situation, sadly, is almost the same in other provinces.

Sindh was the most affected by a flash flood in 2010 and the following year. The role of the PDMA came under fire when the organisation failed to gauge the magnitude of the disaster and, actually, initially refused to take the help of donor agencies, saying it had sufficient means to tackle the situation of its own. Their claims were proved wrong as the province suffered colossal destruction and loss of life.

“The PDMA in Sindh has not been able to come up with a contingency plan for a single district so far,” says Fida Soomro, a leading expert of disaster risk reduction, talking to TNS. “Two weeks back, a Rohi Canal breach resulted in huge losses in around 45 villages. Both the PDMA and the DDMAs could nothing to avert the disaster. It clearly shows that the dykes are weak in Sindh and the disaster management authorities have failed to strengthen them.”

Soomro adds that frequent changes in the administrative set-up of the PDMA Sindh haven’t helped anyone. “Since 2010, the director general of the PDMA has been changed four times over.”

It is basically the DDMA in each district which is supposed to conduct an early-recovery and relief operation in the event of a disaster. Under the National Disaster Management Act 2010, the DDMA is the most important unit when it comes to handling disasters. “But they do not have offices in all districts of Sindh. The district governments, under the Local Government Ordinance, were required to allocate two per cent of their budget for disaster management, but the ordinance was repealed and the DDMAs are now headed by the DCOs who have no budget to run these bodies.”

Soomro who claims to have recently visited 24 disaster-prone districts situated on both sides of the Indus, starting from Mianwali to Thatta, believes if the region receives a little above normal rains, the result would be more devastating than in 2010-11.

A deputy commissioner posted in Sindh who is also the head of the DDMA in his district, tells TNS on condition of anonymity that so far no contingency plan has been evolved for the district. “We’ve not had a single meeting of the DDMA over the past one year.

“Resources are the main issue. We’ve not been given a budget for disaster management. Yes, there are a few officials of the DDMA but they don’t have enough office space and practically just one telephone line.”

According to an estimate, from 2005 till 2011, the natural disasters that struck Pakistan have cost the country over $18 billion. However, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank say an initial investment of just $27 million by the government could repair damages from future disasters.

“Pakistan has allocated more than this sum to pay for the National Assembly expenses in the last two years alone,” says Dr Arif Azad who co-authored the detailed report ‘Ready or Not: Pakistan’s resilience to disaster one year on, from floods’ for Oxfam in 2011.

This initial investment, followed by a sustained allocation of resources, could include reorganising the existing parallel disaster management bodies, providing them assistance and hardware support in the 30 most vulnerable districts and longer-term flood risk mapping.

According to Dr Azad, the need for better preparedness is recognised at all government levels, but “on ground nothing is done to that effect. There are no political governments at district and tehsil levels, which is why there is no political ownership of the DDMAs. It’s the DCOs who are heading these organisations. In most districts, the locals are not even aware that the DDMAs — or, for that matter — the PDMAs exist.”

Experts are of the view that many constitutional and legal issues have not been taken care of. The National Disaster Management Act 2010 makes a renewed legislative commitment that the whole spectrum of disaster would be brought before the PDMAs and the DDMAs with the old relief departments like the provincial relief cells and emergency relief cells at the federal level absorbed into it.

But this has not been done and, in almost all provinces, parallel relief bodies still exist.

The experts also believe the question of delivery of services will come later as presently there are a number of lacunas in the law that need to be addressed. “We cannot fix responsibility under the present rules and regulations. It is diluted because of legislative confusion. The PDMAs were established under the legislation passed in 2006 when there was a totally different model of governance,” says Amjad Bhatti who has been working on disaster management for the past many years. “After the 18th Amendment the relationship between federation and provinces has changed completely. So, we need to make drastic legal changes in the laws that govern the NDMA and the PDMAs.”

Tahir Munir Minhas, Director General, PDMA Balochistan, says one major problem the organisation is faced with is the capacity building of the staff. “There is no trained staff available to us,” he says. “I am also a civil servant and have the minimum knowledge of disaster management. We have been relying totally on different training workshops conducted by the UN agencies and other non-government organisations.”

Tahir claims that the PDMAs are in a phase of transition all across the country. “In Balochistan, we have a provincial disaster fund in place, though the budget allocated for it in the last two years has not been shifted to us. But we’ve been working on setting up a different bank account of the PDMA and, hopefully, from next year onwards our budget shall be transferred to that account.

“We have yet to define the PDMA service rules and procedures, and also plan to create a disaster management service cadre. But it takes time to do things in the public sector.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taking the lead
The local and international NGOs respond effectively in the event of a natural
calamity, but the security concerns can hamper their humanitarian efforts
By Mohammad Awais

Pakistan is a disaster prone country and has seen flash floods as many as 67 times since its inception in 1947. The UN declared year 2010’s flood as the greatest humanitarian crisis in the history of the country, and last year’s deluge reportedly affected a population of 5.3 million and inundated 1.7 million acres of arable land. Every time, the devastation was beyond the capacity of the government to handle, placing a great deal of onus on the local and international non-government organisations (INGOs) which responded quite effectively and won the trust of the local population and the world alike. Come to think of it, 80 per cent of the international aid in 2011’s flood was possible though them. In the event of another flood this year, the local and international NGOs will again be looked to for help, as the government tainted with huge corruption scandals may not be able to spare enough funds.

TNS contacted some NGOs to find out about their preparedness and learnt that they haven’t any specific contingency plans chalked out, but several of them are working in Pakistan on sustainable projects and others are waiting to get funds in order to resume long-term projects.

There are bad signals as well. The International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC), an INGO working in 80 countries with its 12,000-plus staff, recently suspended its activities across Pakistan following the killing of one of its staffers, Khalil Dale, in Balochistan on April 29 this year. Khalil was abducted in January 2012 from outside the ICRC’s Quetta office.

“After the death of Dale, we have temporarily suspended our operations in Pakistan,” says Najam us Saqib, ICRC Communications Officer. “All offices of the ICRC across the country, except for its head office in Islamabad, have been closed. “We are reviewing the situation and further decision will be taken after some time.”

The ICRC, whose global head office is in Switzerland, has always responded wholeheartedly whenever a natural disaster hit Pakistan. According to Najam, the organisation provided food, shelter and medical aid to the flood victims in Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan and Sindh in 2010. The following year, it provided humanitarian aid to “15,000 families in Sindh through Pakistan Red Crescent Society.”

The efforts of the local NGOs have won them accolades as well as public trust. Edhi Foundation is one such organisation. Talking to TNS, Abdul Sattar Edhi, says his organisation is fully equipped and ready to respond in the event of a calamity in any part of the country.

When asked about the Foundation’s strategy, a humble but resolute Edhi says, “We haven’t made any specific plans, but we are fully operational and our infrastructure is so strong that our relief workers will be out there to help out their countrymen.”

The relief and rehabilitation efforts of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Pakistan, were commendable in the floods of 2010 and 2011. Qaisar Khan Afridi, Public Information Associate, UNHCR, says the UN refugee agency assisted hundreds and thousands of people by providing them with tents and non-food items like blankets, kitchen sets, buckets, quilts, jerry cans and plastic sheets.

Talking about the agency’s strategy in case there are flash floods this year, he says, “We always have stocks of relief supplies and contingency plans in place to meet with such a situation, if the government asks for assistance.”

He further says the UNHCR’s flood response interventions target the most vulnerable among the victims, including people with disabilities, women without a male guardian, and families unable to rebuild their own houses. “The agency has completed 3,838 one-room shelters in Punjab, 6,000 in Sindh, 8,550 in Balochistan and 14,000 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“Last week, the UNHCR joined the local authorities in handing over ownership rights to 400 newly-constructed one-room shelters to a fishing community left homeless by the devastating floods in Pakistan in 2010. The 400 shelters are part of nearly 4,000 one-room houses that the organisation has constructed for flood victims in Multan, Bhawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, DG Khan, Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh,and other districts of Punjab.”

Keeping in view Pakistan’s disaster prone condition, many INGOs are making efforts to enhance their capacity and improve their infrastructure so that they can work on long term basis. Their efforts will definitely be supportive to Pakistan in any such calamity.

Bushra, a representative of Qatar Charity, an organisation which started its operations in Pakistan in 1992, tells TNS about QC’s plans to “expand our operations and enhance our capacity. For this purpose, we are in contact with the various UN bodies for funding. Proposals are in the pipeline and their outcome is expected soon.”

A secure environment for the staff of the INGOs is of vital importance and the government’s failure on this front would not only hamper the ongoing rehabilitation efforts but also put any future humanitarian assistance at stake.

Instead of appreciating and supporting the efforts of these NGOs, the government seems to have adopted an indifferent attitude towards them. Prime Minister Gillani is said to have remarked, “80 percent of the flood aid comes through the NGOs and they will misuse at least half of it. This could instead be spent on acquiring bullet-proof cars and luxury expenses, as if those who work in the NGOs are ministers.”

 

 

A faulty system  
A well-coordinated early warning system that
integrates flood forecasting and monitoring as well as dissemination of information to vulnerable communities is the need of the time

Pakistan’s flood warning system is quite complex and involves a host of departments like Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), Wapda, SUPARCO, Federal Flood Commission, Indus Water Commission, the national and provincial disaster management authorities, provincial irrigation departments and district officials. This system has not proved to be efficient in gathering and disseminating flood warnings in time.

Currently, the meteorology department can only predict weather patterns of up to four days in advance, weather radar systems are limited and they do not cover our eastern rivers, catchment areas in most parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir and important coastal areas of Balochistan which are vulnerable to cyclones.

Saleem Sheikh, a leading Pakistani journalist working on climate change issues and disasters, believes that Pakistan’s major issue is adoption of modern technology. “In Pakistan, we have weather monitoring stations at five glaciers only while we have more than 4000 glaciers in the country. We have only three radar observation stations at Jhelum and its tributaries, while only six such stations to monitor flooding at Indus River. So, the current flood management system only meets requirements for the Indus River flood plains in Punjab and Sindh. No system exists in KP or Balochistan to forecast or monitor the flash floods that have become more frequent in these provinces and in South Punjab.

In some of the most sensitive catchment areas in KP during the 2010 floods, we do not have even manual flood observation system. Local communities are needed to be integrated in flood warning systems.”

Saleem says that increased investment in early warning systems could save countless lives and prevent huge damages. “Pakistan also needs to increase its cooperation with the World Meteorological Organisation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, making use of their data to prepare weather forecasts and flood warnings.”

A well coordinated but less complex early warning system for floods that integrates flood forecasting and monitoring and dissemination of information to vulnerable communities is essential.

“We have a problem with the service delivery record of the NDMA, the PDMAs and local authorities at district level in this regard,” he says.

A study shows that the 2010 floods in Pakistan could have been predicted if the data which originated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) had been processed and fed into a hydrological model, which takes terrain into account. “People don’t understand the power of modern environmental prediction,” said Peter Webster, a professor of earth and atmospheric science at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and lead author of the study, in July 2011.

“The magnitude of the disaster could have been minimised… If we were working with Pakistan, they would have known 8 to 10 days in advance that the floods were coming.”

Peter also spoke of a prospective forecasting system in Pakistan that would cost a few million dollars to set up but as little as $100,000 a year, once operational.

Muhammad Riaz, chief meteorologist of PMD, admits his department cannot forecast weather patterns more than four days in advance. “For most of the areas in KP and GB we can only predict floods for 6-8 hours in advance. We have some Radar Observations System on the western side of Jhelum while its eastern side falls in India and we get information from India only through the Indus Water Commission. It is true that we need to strengthen our observation stations.”

Riaz also says PMD and NDMA have been working on some projects with the help of Japan and the UN to strengthen their flood warning system. “For the past 2-3 years, different departments working on flood warning have started to coordinate well. It took them millions of rupees to set up one weather observation station upstream. “Pakistan needs to strengthen its radar network and ground observation system and enhance the numerical model to predict floods well in advance.”

— Aoun Sahi

 

  

 


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