agriculture
Closed channels
Serious water shortage has been forecast for the crops sown in the coming Rabbi season
By Aoun Sahi
On Sept 25, the technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reportedly forecast a shortage of up to 35 percent water for coming Rabbi season. This means the country will have to face problem with the sowing of wheat crop which is very crucial to ensure food security.

Migrants or Islamic extremists?
The profiles of none of the alleged terrorists point to being grown up in Pakistan. Is Britain then nurturing trouble itself?
By Ismail Khan, Muhammad
On September 6, 2009, in the British city of Birmingham, 90 protesters were arrested after violence broke out between a group protesting against 'Islamic extremism' and another one holding a counter-demonstration against it.

Growth recession
The present government in an attempt to correct the economic fundamentals preferred stability to growth
By Hussain H. Zaidi
After registering robust growth for five years at a stretch (FY04-FY08), the economy grew only by 2 percent in FY09 -- the second lowest for the country in more than a decade. But for the downward revision of FY08 growth rate by 1.7 percentage points (4.1 percent from 5.8 percent as recorded previously), GDP expansion for FY09 would be 0.3 percent, one of the all-time low. The growth target for the current fiscal year (FY10) is 3.3 percent. Two pertinent questions are: What lies behind recession of the growth? And what are its likely implications?

While the differences between third world countries are significant, the similarities often astound. While I do not propose that the trajectories of Asian, African and Latin American post-colonies have been determined purely by the colonial encounter, I believe firmly that the colonial legacy is so enduring as to make any attempt to understand the contemporary situation in the third world meaningless without reference to this legacy.

In particular I want to emphasise the highly complex forms of identity that were precipitated by the colonial encounter and which cannot adequately be understood through commonly employed binaries such as 'modern' and 'traditional'. In part the problem that scholars of post-colonial societies face in explicating the complexity of social forms in the third world is that much of received social theory is inherently ethnocentric. Be that as it may, there have been many innovative attempts made over the years to make sense of the myriad social practices that make up post-colonial societies.

My concern in this article is with the well-known formulation of 'the invention of tradition' associated with sociologists/anthropologists like Terence Ranger and Bernard Cohn (the former studied the African context while the latter wrote specifically about the creation and manipulation of knowledge by the British in India). The argument is actually quite straightforward: Colonial authorities reified certain social identities -- including caste, ethnicity and religion -- under the guise that these identities structured the social exchanges of native populations. While it was true that exclusive identities that are often referred to as 'primordial' existed in the pre-colonial period, the 'invention of tradition' scholars argue persuasively that colonialism was the backdrop for these 'traditional' identities to be invented in brand new ways. In other words, the oft-mentioned 'traditional' features of third world societies are actually extremely modern in the sense that the colonial (and, subsequently, post-colonial) state made them operational in ways that they previously were not.

Specifically, the colonial state meticulously classified each colonial subject as hailing from a particular caste, ethnic or religious group (among many other such identities) and then proceeded to engage the subject in different ways on the basis of these various classifications. Not surprisingly, given the dominant role of the colonial state, the colonial subject took on these identities and learnt how best to negotiate with the state by embellishing whichever identities promised greater rewards. Of course, a large number of colonial subjects were forever denigrated and their identities became markers of eternal social and political subordination. The fate of the most excluded social groups in post-colonial societies long after the end of colonialism is a testament to how powerful this process of reification actually was.

If the 'invention of tradition' argument makes clear how the colonial state reinforced parochial identities, it does not necessarily make clear if and how the social practices that are commonplace in third world societies have changed over time. While the colonial subject adopted parochial identities in engaging the colonial state, deeply-rooted cultural practices were also consolidated which need to be understood in their own right. In particular I want to comment here on the notion of reciprocity and attendant forms of political and social exchange.

It is a well-known fact that norms of reciprocity are widespread in many Asian and African societies (Latin American less so). Among the more studied of reciprocal practices by anthropologists is ritual gift exchange. Such 'traditional' cultural practices have been documented as taking place primarily within the prototypical rural context. However, it has become clear that urbanisation and migration have not necessarily led to the emergence of the classical (western) individual (wo)man without the 'baggage' of parochial identities and attendant cultural practices. Instead, the 21st century post-colonial subject thinks about social and political exchange in personalised terms, often to the detriment of the notional 'general public'.

So, to provide an example, the average Pakistani 'citizen' considers it perfectly natural for kin relations to overlook -- even defy -- formal injunctions and perform personal favours. A government servant approached by his distant cousin for a favour is looked down upon if he opts to obey rules instead. Of course, this is not a simple problem of principle -- as I have already tried to show above, officialdom has patronised some castes, ethinicities and religions much more than others, and so it is hardly surprising that the concept of the objective public interest has not developed. Nonetheless, I wish only to show how the imperatives of accumulation of power and wealth, cultural norms and governmental technologies come together to explain very complex social and political practices.

My broader point is that we should cease to ask questions which revolve around the refrain: 'When will we become like them (i.e. the organised, rule-bound, freedom-loving westerners)?' Our history is dramatically different from that of the west and it is impossible that different historical social formations proceed along the same trajectory in any case (I hope it is clear that by different historical social formations, I do not mean, as the Islamists do, that 'Islam' and the 'West' are exclusive cultures). The related point is that we should not necessarily consider the cultural norms that inform many of our social and political practices as 'backward'. What is regressive is the manner in which these norms were instrumentalised by the colonial state -- and continue to be instrumentalised by the post-colonial state -- to create and maintain an oppressive socio-political order. To move beyond this order we need to disentangle progressive cultural norms from the regressive ones and conceive of a new politics accordingly.

This, of course, means doing away with institutional structures of the (post-) colonial state and transcending the ruthless exploitative morality of the capitalist market. But as I have tried to show here, none of this is possible if and unless we understand clearly our complex inheritance and the way things have evolved since the end of formal colonialism. It is our inability to think beyond the box that either leads to a yearning for a bygone 'traditional' pre-colonial era that never existed or, amongst some people, the rule-bound methods of the British, which were far from impersonal and instead systems of 'othering'. When we see the world through such lenses, the potentialities for a progressive future are undermined. We need to be optimistic that such potentialities do exist and then look for them in the right places.

The News on Sunday: Tell us why you joined politics?

Chitra Lekha Yadav: When I was small, I used to see people coming to our house crying and asking for food. My mother would give them food. I would also steal rice or some other food item from the store to help these people. Whenever I saw them crying for justice, I got upset and asked my father how their problems could be solved. My father would tell me they were going to be solved by right politics and pursuing the right policies.

At that time I didn't understand 'politics', only that we could solve the problems of people 'through politics'. That is why I entered politics -- to serve the people at large.

TNS: Why did you join Nepali Congress Party?

CLY: I joined Nepali Congress Party because in those days it was the first Nepali democratic party in our country and since its inception it struggled for the rights of the people and democracy in our country. Principally, I am committed to Nepali Congress Party.

TNS: What is the situation after monarchy?

CLY: Generally, the situation has improved a lot. But there is still much more to do because if we talk about women in South Asia, we more or less enjoy the same status. It's only when we see ahead that we realise we have to achieve a lot more. The political representation has increased all over but that is not sufficient; there has to be equality, too. We need to struggle a lot to achieve that.

TNS: Tell us specifically about the situation of Nepali women in the society?

CLY: There is discrimination and exploitation, though these things vary among communities and societies. They differ among rural and urban women. As a whole, when you talk about the status of women, they seem to lag far behind even if they are constitutionally regarded as equals. In practice, men are more equal and women are discriminated against.

TNS: How do you compare the situation before and after the monarchy, with particular reference to women?

CLY: As time passes, change is visible but it not the kind of change we aspired for; we still have to go a long way. But for that we have to work collectively.

TNS: Are there any reserved seats for women in the parliament?

CLY: Yes, there are, according to the interim constitution.

TNS: How many women are there in the assembly and at other tiers?

CLY: In the Constituent Assembly, they have 33 percent representation but outside it their presence is not more than 5-10 percent.

Practically, women's representation is not satisfactory. Thirty-three percent representation of women should be mandatory in every institution. Women should be given a chance and an opportunity (to prove themselves). They have been discriminated against for a long time. So there should be compensation which is that we want due share and representation in every sector.

TNS: What about the state of domestic violence?

CLY: Like I told you earlier, the situation is more or less the same.

TNS: You have participated in the consultation 'Violence Against Women in Politics'. Would you like to explain the situation in Nepal?

CLY: Violence is very obvious in the politics of South Asia because the mainstream political leadership is less gender-sensitive. That is one of the reasons why violence is prevalent in politics. Women politicians are humiliated, intimidated and not given their due share in politics. Their contribution is more than that of men but where it comes to decision-making, you only find men. That is the reason of violence against women in politics.

TNS: It seems from your speech here in the conference, you are not much in favour of reserved seats for women. You want them to be directly elected?

CLY: When I saw "In democracy we want election not selection" written on a banner here in the meeting, I had the impression that if reserved seats are not properly 'selected' -- according to the contribution of the person and the demand of the people -- then the grievances remain. So we need to be very careful; we need to do political justice when selecting women under reserved seats.

Only those women should be selected for reserved seats who have made a contribution in politics. We must be able to check the negative effects of reserved seats on time.

TNS: You favour direct participation of women so that they can take independent decisions, don't you?

CLY: Mixed system is comparatively better but we need to be very honest, committed and objective while making the selection of women. That is my point. The women who come under reserved seats must be respected by the people, by the party workers.

TNS: Do the women have equality in government jobs in Nepal?

CLY: I don't have the data with me but that is not satisfactory. That is nominal. That is what I have been struggling for, making recommendations to the Nepali government.

TNS: Issues like dowry and domestic violence are common in the entire South Asia. How, in your view, can the South Asian women join hands and improve the lot of womenfolk?

CLY: There are social issues where we must come together. Our solidarity would definitely help the womenfolk in South Asia. The most important thing is: how are we going to make people aware of these things.

Actually, there are several issues for which we must come together. We have to see it as a great loss to society. We have to fight against all the social evils collectively in South Asia. So, if our organisations are united, I think we will be able to fight for peace, development and prosperity. Together we have to fight for that.

TNS: What is the future of Nepali Congress now?

CLY: Nepali Congress is the second biggest party in the Constituent Assembly. The future of any political party -- if it goes by people's concerns and understands the mood of the people in present times -- is safe and secure. Its cadres must interact with the people and listen to their demands. If the political party has the finger on the pulse of people, it has a great future.

Ostentation, lavish living, wasting and plundering public money, misuse of powers -- just to mention a few -- are well-known traits of Pakistanis leaders and government officials, certainly with some notable exceptions. The word 'austerity' is not in the dictionary of high-level civil military bureaucracy, public office-holders and even the public at large -- having an iota of affluence. This habit of living beyond means has made us a nation with a beggars bowl in our hands. When the lenders see the lifestyle of our ruling elite, they immediately and rightfully show indignation -- it is hard to believe for them that a nation living on loans has such a flamboyant way of spending. In the words of Ghalib "Karz ki peetai thai "mai" lekin samjhatai thay keh haan, rang lai gi! Hamar i"faqa masti" aik din (we were hooked on alcohol from borrowed funds and were living under the illusion that one day this will pay off).

Wasteful spending out of taxes collected from the poor is playing havoc with economy as well as the socio-economic fabric of society. Behind the present chaotic socio-economic and political situation in Pakistan, amongst other factors, is an increasing gulf between the rich and the poor. It is shocking that with every passing day more and more people are being pushed below the poverty line -- their total number is now not less than 45 million in a country where rulers unashamedly squander billions of rupees on their personal comfort and so-called security (amazing how publicly elected representatives fear their own electorate!). One of the major weaknesses of governance in Pakistan is unchecked wasteful spending. The worsening plight of the poor is not because of shortage of resources -- as unashamedly propagated by the rulers -- but is entirely due to wasteful expenses.

During fiscal year 2008-2009, total tax revenue of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) was Rs 1138 billion. The government had total receipts (both tax and non-tax) at Rs2026.7 billion. Expenditures -- current plus development -- were Rs2018 billion, out of which non-development outlays were to the tune of Rs 1746 billion. For financial year 2009-10, a cursory look at Annual Budget Statement, tabled in the National Assembly and transmitted to the Senate of Pakistan to meet the requirements of Article 80(1) of the Constitution, reveals a disturbing story. Analysis of two sizeable volumes, prepared and published by Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, commonly called the Pink Book, shows how public money is wasted ruthlessly.

We have over 50 Ministries and 135 Divisions, sub-Divisions, attached offices and allied departments. The Government, in budget 2009-10 earmarked only Rs400, 000 for adoption of Urdu language as official language [Page 11, Volume I, Pink Book] whereas for travel and transportation of Federal Ministers total allocation is that of Rs47, 044,000 [Page 10, Volume I, Pink Book]. Total money given to the apex court in the budget 2008-09 was Rs354, 500,000 whereas the entertainment expenditure of Prime Minister and President House was over Rs220, 700,000! Budget sanction of Council of Islamic Ideology is Rs 52,280,000 and for Model Deeni Madaris Rs 29,287,000. On the contrary, the total money spared for Scientific and Technological Division of Ministry of Science and Technology is merely Rs298, 838,000 and that too not for research but for operational expenses. It is a national shame to note that total budget of this vital Ministry is only Rs 3,076,070,000, out of which not a single penny is earmarked for any research project.

Details for demands provided in 'Current Expenditure' (Volume I) and 'Development Expenditure' (Volume II) of Pink Book confirm beyond doubt that billions of rupees are being wasted in the most ruthless manner. The Secretary to the Government of Pakistan, Salam Siddique, in his preface to this book has observed: "For day to day working of Ministries and their departments, this document becomes the basic reference point for expenditure management and control." One wonders what kinds of control and management he is talking about. The Auditor General of Pakistan in his annual reports has time and again mentioned that all rules and regulations are blatantly violated causing national exchequer to suffer loss of billions of rupees. Yet nobody is convicted -- rather the worst offenders got pardon under the infamous NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance -- what a misnomer in which withdrawing cases of looters of national wealth was done in the name of political expediency).

The following examples for additional grants, taken from Pink Book, are not only eye-opening but also testify to the wasting and plundering of public money by politicians and bureaucrats:

Prime Minister's Secretariat got additional grant of Rs76, 656,000 for establishing camp offices at Lahore and Multan for Prime Minister. At both the places we already have palatial government buildings, yet the Prime Minister of this starving debt-enslaved nation wants to spend millions of rupees for aristocratic, highborn, grand, exclusive camp offices!!!

Special grant (in addition to regular budget) of Rs300, 000,000 is given for transfer of Special Initiative Wing to Cabinet Division -- one wonders what the need of this Wing is!

Cabinet Division got supplementary grant of Rs22, 000,000 for Central Pool of Cars for Ministers, State Ministers etc. They are not ready to improve and use the public transport system. Further grant of Rs21, 063,000 was given to Cabinet Division to meet shortfall of funds in Main Secretariat.

The National Assembly as additional grant to "publicity campaign" sanctioned Rs15, 000,000 for Prime Minister Special Fund for victims of terrorism. Do we still need publicity for such a cause!!

The inefficient and incompetent NAB -- as adjudged by the apex Court -- has got Rs55, 804,000 in addition to regular budget grant just to meet shortfall in budget of NAB, Islamabad. It also managed to get supplementary grant of Rs22, 064,000 as its "share in recoveries" (Islamabad office alone). This is a unique governmental agency that gets share in recoveries -- though this is its prime duty and function to recoup such losses -- whereas all its expenses are also met from the taxpayers' money. The extra grants that NAB has extorted in budget 2009-10 from taxpayers' money for its many other offices are: Sindh (Rs35, 094,000), Punjab (Rs34, 997,000), NWFP (Rs23, 967,000), Balochistan (Rs 12,692,000), Rawalpindi (Rs23, 020,000) and Gilgit (Rs687, 000).

Under Demand No. 025 [Defence Services] a huge sum of Rs13, 612,717,000 has been sanctioned under the title "Essential requirement of Defence Services" but no descriptions in terms of items have been given.

Defence Production Unit (demand No. 26) depicts additional grant of Rs1, 761,196,000 for debt servicing of a loan. However, details of loans, the purpose for which it was acquired etc have not been disclosed.

Rulers of the day are not inclined to live like the common man. They are not ready to surrender their exorbitant perks and privileges they are enjoying at the cost of taxpayers' money. Democracy and responsibility towards people, who vote for parliament, are interconnected. The concept of modern egalitarian State emerges from the sovereign right of the Parliament to levy taxes [Article 77 of the Constitution of Pakistan]. But at the same time it has to spend the same for public welfare rather than for personal comfort and self-aggrandizement. The second ingredient of democracy is completely missing in Pakistan. Thus people must demand the same and if rulers fail to deliver it, they have a right to stop paying taxes. It will not amount to tax revolt but demonstration of their right to force a government to act under the constitutional democracy.

In 2008, at least 6,700 Pakistanis were killed in terrorist incidents. Almost five times as many women have died during pregnancy and childbirth in the same year. In fact, a recent major survey by Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2006-071(PDHS) has found that pregnancy and childbirth is the leading cause of death among women of reproductive age in Pakistan.

To make matters worse, health facilities are under tremendous stress. There is one hospital for every 170,000 people. While there is need to expand the network of treatment facilities, the need to invest in preventive health care is equally significant and deserves more attention than it presently receives. When applied to maternal health this means promoting the use of contraceptives as a life-saving method.

"Rashida (name changed to maintain privacy) has become a regular feature of this hospital," says a young doctor working at a crowded government hospital in Karachi. "I first met her almost a year ago when she had travelled all the way from Multan to our hospital. She was exhausted from the journey, in a lot of pain and there was urine dribbling from her as she explained to me what had happened. She had had a complicated delivery which was mishandled and as a result she developed a fistula. She came to us alone since no one from her family was willing to travel with her."

Rashida had to move to Karachi since there is no appropriate treatment facility for her in Multan. She was eventually referred to a private fistula treatment facility in Karachi where women are treated free of cost. Fistula (or obstetric fistula) is a hole that can develop between the rectum and vagina or the bladder and vagina, causing involuntary leakage of faeces or urine. Women suffering from this condition face not only physical challenges but are also subject to extreme stigmatisation.

Rashida is not alone in her ordeal. According to the latest estimate of the Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Pakistan, nearly 390,000 women in Pakistan suffer from pregnancy and childbirth related illnesses and injuries (maternal morbidity) in a year. Severe illnesses/injuries include haemorrhages, pelvic inflammatory disease infection and obstetric fistula. The PDHS 2006-07 suggests that half of the women suffering from these complications will probably not seek treatment for their illnesses. Among those who do, three in every five are still likely to rely on an unskilled provider such as dai, (traditional birth attendant) Lady Health Visitor, hakim or a dispenser. Left untreated or if not treated properly, these complications can lead to a lifetime of disability, and in the case of fistulas usually result in women withdrawing or being isolated from social activities.

Disability is not the only risk women face when they are pregnant, there is also the risk of dying during pregnancy or childbirth. It hardly bears mentioning that in the wealthier countries that risk as been reduced to insignificance.

According to latest PDHS for every 100,000 live births in the country there are 297 maternal deaths. Applying this rate to the estimate of current eligible female population (i.e. married and of childbearing age) we can expect 31,482 mothers to die during a year.

Simply through reducing the number of pregnancies with contraception, the number of pregnancy-related deaths and illnesses has to come down.

The truth is that not all pregnancies are wanted; findings of the PDHS reveal that more than a quarter of the pregnancies in 2006-07 were either unwanted or mistimed. Prior research has shown that unwanted pregnancies are also the leading cause of induced abortions in Pakistan and that a lot of women suffer from post abortion complications (PACs) as a result of unsafe abortions (Population Council, 2002-03).

Saima (name changed to maintain privacy), age thirty-five, recalls what she went through after undergoing an abortion at the hands of a local nurse known as "Dr. Zubaida" working in her neighbourhood in Korangi. Saima, already a mother of seven children, does not want any more children. In fact, she did not wish to have more children after her sixth child. When she found out she was pregnant for the eighth time, her ailing husband compelled her to abort the pregnancy.

Saima had never visited a private hospital or a family planning counsellor before this incident and went to Dr. Zubaida at the recommendation of her sister-in-law. Saima's experience was extremely unpleasant and expensive. "What could I do but stay in bed? I felt dizzy when I moved and I had severe backaches, no one would come close to me because of the foul smell. My daughter Nazia had to stay home from school and do the house work."

Since the procedure was performed, almost six months ago, every day had been a struggle for her and her family until she started seeing a certified doctor. Saima is now being treated free of cost, although she has to pay for her medicines, and she says there is marked improvement in her health.

Assuming that a quarter of the current (estimated) pregnancies are also unwanted and were somehow prevented, in the first place, 8,500 maternal deaths could have been averted and 106,250 women could have been saved from disabilities.

Effective contraception can prevent unwanted pregnancies, hence unwanted deaths and disabilities. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), one in three of all pregnancy and childbirth related deaths can be avoided if women who want to use contraception have access to it.

Contraceptive use

Among the married female population, around 35 percent of the women wanted more children or could not have any/more children and therefore did not require contraception. The remaining 65 percent should have ideally been using contraception. However, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) for Pakistan, in 2006-07, was 30 percent, which is unlikely to have changed much since then. Although access and awareness related interventions have improved the CPR in Pakistan over the years, there are still many obstacles that prevent women from using contraception even if they want to.

Cost of and access to contraceptives, do not seem to be formidable obstacles anymore. The more obstinate barriers relate to lack of knowledge and misconceptions (such as health concerns, fear of side-effects, inconvenience of use and so on) and to beliefs and attitudes of not only women but also those around them.

"I would rather have an abortion than use the injection (contraceptive). It does not suit me and people look down on those who adopt such practices." This is how Riffat, 35 years of age and a mother of five, thinks. She has already had an abortion done from Dr. Zubaida, the same provider who mishandled Saima's case. In fact, Saima also does not practice family planning because she thinks it is un-Islamic.

The serious obstacles now are attitudinal -- with opposition coming from a woman herself, her husband, others or religious beliefs. One in three women not using contraception say it is "up to God" whether they get pregnant, and are not practicing family planning. This could mean that many women still do not consider contraception to be a choice either way. More dangerously they might not even think about it until they actually conceive, at which point they decide whether to take the pregnancy to term or abort.

Clearly tackling such issues requires wider reproductive health and socio-economic interventions, to improve women's agency. That would go beyond the realm of family planning, and seek out ways to increase women's decision-making power in all the important stages of her life: from studying, getting married, earning an income, to building a family.

Pregnancy-related care

Once a woman has conceived she should have unhindered access to safe pre and post natal care services as well. The World Health Organisation prescribes a minimum of three visits for an uncomplicated pregnancy. But less than half of the women recently surveyed made the required number of antenatal care visits for their latest birth. Even worse, unskilled attendants assisted more than half of the births. While many women suffer no complications when they deliver with the help of unskilled attendants, in the event of any complication or mistake, the best that these attendants can do is refer the woman to a clinic or hospital if it is already not too late.

Role of government

The Government of Pakistan has undertaken several interventions over the years to improve family planning services and the maternal health situation in Pakistan. Some of the key initiatives have been the Lady Health Workers (LHW) programme launched in 1994 to provide health and family planning services at the community level. The PPP government has said that it plans to double the number of LHWs to 200,000 during its tenure.

The National Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health Programme (MNCH) aims, among other things, to position 10,000 skilled birth attendants within communities, provide family planning services at all health outlets and provide basic Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) services at health facilities.

Although these interventions have improved access and awareness on reproductive health issues, performance (evaluation) data is hard to come by. Moreover there is still a huge gap between the services available, and the pervasiveness of the problem. Quality of service provision is also a matter of concern, with women reporting they do not return to a government facility due to intimidation or lack of privacy in the ward.

Disseminating contraceptive knowledge, as widely as possible and as fervently as possible, could yet be the most effective tool to achieve this. In this context, knowledge related factors do not refer to knowledge of contraceptive methods only -- that is already universal amongst currently married women. These should also include medical facts and findings on side-effects, treatment of side-effects and information about alternative methods of contraception. Getting women to think about the true financial and health costs of having an unwanted pregnancy could also play a vital part.

Every possible effort has to be made to prevent these preventable deaths and disabilities. Giving birth should make a woman a mother, not a martyr.

We confirm the fact that our economy has an irreconcilable contradiction, resulting in failure of all social and economic life.

We consider the irreconcilable contradiction as follows:

If science and technology is to be applied to the whole of the economic and social life, then the feudal economy in agriculture cannot exist, or if the feudal economy in agriculture has to exist then science and technology cannot be applied to the whole of economic and social life.

We give the proof of the above contradiction:

If any feudal agricultural land utilises science and technology, two things must happen, one the productivity of the land must be raised many folds, and secondly the need for manual labour on the land must vanish or almost vanish. These two results arise from the very characteristic of science and technology applied to production process of any kind.

From the above it must follow that the vast majority of the people of the country living in villages, and bound to feudal life, directly or indirectly, must become redundant. In other words they are no more needed to perform useful economic activity.

With the redundancy of the vast majority of the population, the feudal property must not remain so but will transform to capitalist agriculture property. In other words the lord will transform to an agricultural capitalist! This is just because a feudal property does not imply the land itself. Feudal property implies the existence of the lord on the one hand and the existence of the peasants and villagers directly or indirectly involved in economic activity in accordance with demands of the lord or in accordance with the varieties of what is called "feudal tenure".

We must add that feudal rent, in kind or money is a form of feudal tenure, the other form is sharecropping. We can prove the above contradiction for all the varieties of tenure.

The economic activity of the peasants on the lord's land and direct or indirect involvement of the surrounding villages in such activity is the nutshell of feudal life and culture. Feudal life taken on a vast scale becomes part of human civilisation.

Hence we have proved that science and technology and feudal structure on agricultural land contradict each other irreconcilably. Either we can have feudal tenure or science or technology not both.

The irreconcilable contradiction proved above, then creates irreconcilable contradictions in all spheres of economic and social life. In much summarised form they are as follows.

The economic life of the vast majority of people of Pakistan; who live in villages; and the spread of science and technology are "irreconcilable contradictions".

Fact 1: The vast majority of the people must select the vast majority of representatives from the feudal economic structures i.e., who are either lords or in alliance with the feudal economic structures.

The existence of lords in a vast majority in the assemblies and the spread of science and technology in all spheres are "irreconcilable contradictions". The simple reason is that the spread of science and technology in all spheres of social and economic life implies the rapid development of economic structures that are capitalist and a ruling class that is capitalist and their allies. The feudal legislature cannot create a ruling class in negation of itself, or negate its own economy, which is the same thing.

Fact 2: The application of science and technology in all spheres of economic and social life in the final analysis depends on the decisions of the legislatures and then the application of such decisions by the ministries and lower level organizations.

It must follow that economic activity in all non agriculture spheres, even if producing greater part of the GNP must develop only to the extent that the "irreconcilable contradiction" between science and technology and the lord's economy must remain. For it is only through maintenance of this contradiction that the vast majority of people of the country can elect legislatures from economic structures whose needs negate science and technology as explained.

All education regarding science and technology must fail, for in the final analysis, such education can only be for economic and social life that require science and technology and must not be for structures that negate science and technology (a tautology of real life.)

All macro economic policies must fail in the long run in the country (they have already failed in six decades) since the economic structure cannot enhance its productivity and accumulation based on such policies. This is because productivity and accumulation based on macro economic policies requires ever more tools of science and technology, but the latter tools cannot be so used because of the above explained negations.

All the methods of World Bank, IMF, ADB etc must fail, since such methods are at all levels dependent on science and technology, and we have the contradiction facing us again.

The rapid growth of population is the result of the absence, of application of science and technology, for greater and greater accumulation of economic and social life. In other words population cannot be controlled if the irreconcilable contradiction is maintained.

Law and the struggle for the rule of such can only go so far as to reflect and comply with the economic structures that negate science and technology, and in which law is the law of the lord.

All broken roads, dirty bazaars, sanitation, meagre trade, low quality and quantity of industrial production, unending inflation, high interest rates, unhealthy people, children, small heights and high mortality rates are the result of this irreconcilable contradiction.

All taxation must be so utilised so as to maintain this contradiction, in other words the tax money must be wasted, and the more the tax is collected the more it needs to be wasted. There cannot be any other choice, for if the tax money is utilised for the rapid application of science and technology and hence the rapid economic and cultural accumulation, then it is utilised for the resolving the "irreconcilable contradiction" i.e. the development of social democratic capitalist economic and social life, the type which our elite love to enjoy in developed countries and bad mouth on the media at home, in a state of confusion and guilt.

The legislatures during democracy and non-democratic periods negate this resolution of the "irreconcilable contradiction" or else they will negate themselves as allies.

Friends this is the dilemma of existence. To be or not to be.

On Sept 25, the technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reportedly forecast a shortage of up to 35 percent water for coming Rabbi season. This means the country will have to face problem with the sowing of wheat crop which is very crucial to ensure food security.

According to IRSA officials, there will be 33-35 percent water shortage, which will be transferred to Punjab and Sindh in accordance with the 1991 water sharing formula. Independent water and agriculture experts believe that Pakistan needs 45-55 Million Acre Feet (MAF) water for the Rabbi season while IRSA officials put the figure at 35 MAF.

"28.5 million-acre feet (MAF) water will be available for Rabbi season, of which 21 MAF will come into the rivers whereas 7.5 MAF will be the carryover against the total demand of around 35 MAF," Rana Khalid, spokesperson of IRSA tells TNS. He opines the exact figure of water shortage for Rabbi Season will be known after the meeting of the Advisory Committee on Oct 5.

He does not agree that possible water shortage will hurt the sowing of wheat crop. "The shortage can create trouble during the time of maturity of the crop during months of February and March," he says.

Experts are not ready to buy IRSA's line. Ibrahim Mughal, Chairman Agriforum Pakistan, says: "Pakistan needs at least 55 MAF water for Rabbi Season while we only have 7.5 MAF available in our reservoirs. The capacity of our two big dams has been reduced by 50 percent. IRSA and irrigation departments of different provinces may manage water for the wheat crop but what about other Rabbi crops?"

Canals of Chenab River irrigate 10 million acres of land in Punjab while the water inflow has been reduced drastically in this river during last one month. According to IRSA data, on August 31 the inflow of Chenab was 51400 cusec feet at Marala while on October 2 the inflow was reduced to 18000 cusec feet. So farmers will have to depend on underground water especially in Punjab. "We have already been extracting 25 MAF water through one million tubewells in Punjab," says Mughal.

According to him, Rabbi is a very crucial season regarding ensuring food security in the country. "I think along with building new reservoirs and making sure that India is not using water from our rivers, we also need to introduce modern techniques of irrigation like drip irrigation and sprinkle irrigation instead of flood irrigation," he suggests.

The situation on ground is even more revealing; instead of sowing the next crop many farmers in Pakistan are unable to get water for their current crops (mainly cotton and rice) which are going to be harvested in a month or so. Aamir Hussain a farmer from Chak Number 176/7R in Bahawalnagar district who owns 50 acre land could not have cultivated any crop on 30 acres of land in the months of May and June this year. "I could have cultivated cotton crop only on 20 acre. I got some water to irrigate my crop until the first week of September on rotational basis but there is no canal water available to me ever since. If I cannot mange water in the next few days, the yield will be reduced drastically or it can even be destroyed completely. You can find thousands of farmers in our region facing the similar situation. Besides, underground water in the most of areas in our region is brackish," he tells TNS.

It seems there is no way out for Aamir as officially the Kharif season ends on September 30. The canals throughout the country have already been closed for Kharif crops. So, there will be no water in the canals at least in the next 15 days.

The situation is almost similar in the other parts of the country. Hamid Malhi, president of the Basmati Growers association tells TNS, Marala-Ravi Link Canal that irrigates around 0.15 million acre of paddy crop in Narowal and Sialkot districts is completely closed for the last 25 days. "At this time, the grain matures and needs water at least twice a week but there is no water in the canals. Farmers in these areas are forced to use underground water as a second option to irrigate their crop though it is not fit for both crop and the fertility of soil. This practice has increased the input cost by at least 30 percent and the yield will also also be reduced significantly" he says. "On one hand 6 MAF water has been flown into the sea this year while on the other canals in Punjab were run on rotational basis because of unavailability of water. This is the worst kind of mismanagement on the part of irrigation departments."

Abdul Majeed Nizamani, President Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) thinks that reduction in water availability for Rabbi means reduction in under-cultivation area and production by 25 percent. "It has been estimated by different departments in Sindh that wheat crop will be cultivated on 2.5 million acre this year. I do not think it will be more than 2 million acre after 35 percent shortage of water. Farmers in Punjab have the option to use underground water while in Sindh we cannot use even this option as 90 percent underground water in Sindh is brackish," he says.

"With the canals closed for Kharif on Sept 30, farmers in Sindh have suffered a huge loss. We have requested the government to extend the water availability for Kharif up to Oct 31, but they have refused. This year it will really be tough to achieve even cotton production target leave alone the wheat target," says Nizamani.

Officials in Punjab irrigation department admit that water availability has been decreasing in Pakistan every year. "The storage capacity of our reservoirs is also reducing. Last year the shortage of water was around 31 percent but I have heard that this is around 35 percent this year which means that capacity has been reduced by 4 percent even in one year," HM Siddique, consultant Punjab Irrigation department tells TNS. He confirms TNS that irrigation department in Punjab has already closed canals for Kharif. "If we keep giving water for one or two extra weeks, it will badly hurt our Rabbi crops. We ran canals on rotational basis during the Kharif because of shortage and there is no other reason. We cannot fulfil the water shortage by any means. We will try to run our canals on crucial stages like sowing, growing and maturity of the crop in Rabbi. We have also been facing drastic reduction in water inflow in our rivers especially in Chenab that has been causing huge problems for paddy growers in Narowal and Sialkot."

On September 6, 2009, in the British city of Birmingham, 90 protesters were arrested after violence broke out between a group protesting against 'Islamic extremism' and another one holding a counter-demonstration against it.

The first group, led by an organisation named English Defence League (EDL), decided to hold a protest against what it called 'Islamic extremism' and what its opponents, United Against Fascism (UAF), called an attempt to generalise Muslims. When the two groups ran into downtown Birmingham, clashes erupted.

What happened in Birmingham was long-feared by experts. It had been forecasted that given the economic malaise, there may be a thrust up in the xenophobic tendencies. The reason is not difficult to draw: when the economy is not functioning, you have to blame someone. Since the migrant communities are ready to work in the toughest circumstances, they are seen as snatching what's due for others. Remember, how during the Great Depression, anti-Semitism flourished pointing the accusing fingers against Jews -- the magnitude of victimisation back then is beyond comprehension.

Europe is specifically being seen as a case study where the presence of nation states and supra-nation states may push people one way or another. What has emerged so far has clearly benefited the right wing parties, which amazed the world by its spectacular performance in the recently-held elections for the European Union parliament.

The presence of an ever-increasing migrants further signals alarms among those yearning for purity; particularly in Britain where the Muslim population is growing faster than any other community. Earlier this year, the London-based Times while quoting statistics from the Office for National Statistics reported that the Muslim population in Britain has increased from "more than 500,000 to 2.4 million in just four years" and that "the population multiplied 10 times faster than the rest of society" while "in the same period the number of Christians in the country fell by more than 2 million." Within Birmingham, Muslims form the second-largest majority.

Statistics like these are enough to anger the far right wing, who want no further dilution. They see the culture of Muslims, not least South Asian even if it be Indians, as alien and jeopardising their own. This could also be because of lack of proper integration on the part of migrants in the communities -- high birth rate and endogenous marriages being one of the quoted examples. Living secluded in homes in the name of culture has often led to identity crisis, which is found deeply among South Asian communities. This phenomenon has been subject of several award-winning literatures too.

Dwindling economy and growing population get further attention when it is obvious that Muslims, grown up in Britain, have become the custodians of reclaiming Muslim lands. Thus, although the far right may have used 'Islamic extremism' as a pretext against the Muslim at large, the presence of extremism in Muslim is equally noteworthy. But, needless to say, Islamic extremism in Britain is purely home grown.

In many migrant communities, while the first generation is able to bear accusations against them, the second generation is well-aware of rules and business of operating in the area. Those in the streets against the EDL as well as those whom the EDL accuses as terrorists are from the same generation.

In fact, a day after the clashes in Birmingham, a court in Britain convicted three persons in the trans-Atlantic airlines plot. Back in 2006, three men tried to bomb seven airlines en route US. They were caught by the British secret services. Today, they stand accused.

Although 'ground Pakistan' served as an inspiration for nearly all the convicts, the truth is that none of the profiles of the attackers point towards being grown up in Pakistan. When Pakistani officials say it is a British home grown affair, they are not wrong.

After registering robust growth for five years at a stretch (FY04-FY08), the economy grew only by 2 percent in FY09 -- the second lowest for the country in more than a decade. But for the downward revision of FY08 growth rate by 1.7 percentage points (4.1 percent from 5.8 percent as recorded previously), GDP expansion for FY09 would be 0.3 percent, one of the all-time low. The growth target for the current fiscal year (FY10) is 3.3 percent. Two pertinent questions are: What lies behind recession of the growth? And what are its likely implications?

The deceleration in economic growth in FY09 was mainly due to dismal performance of the commodity-producing sector, which grew by a meager 0.2 percent. Within the commodity producing sector, manufacturing registered negative growth of 3.3 percent including minus 7.7 percent growth of the large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which accounts for 70 percent of the total manufacturing. The negative growth of the total manufacturing and LSM in FY09 is in stark contrast with that during the preceding five years (FY04-FY08) during which they on average grew by 10.26 percent and 11.8 percent respectively. The average growth aside, since FY04, both manufacturing and the LSM have registered decelerating growth. Manufacturing, which grew by 15.5 percent in FY05, expanded by 8.7, 8.3, and 4.8 percent respectively in succeeding three years before registering negative growth in FY09. Similarly, the growth in LSM having reached 19.9 percent in FY05 fell to 8.3, 8.7, and 4 percent respectively in the following three years. Hence, the growth in both manufacturing and LSM are on a downward trajectory.

The performance of agriculture has remained erratic growing at 2.4, 6.5, 6.5, 4.1, 1.1 and 4.7 percent respectively from FY04 to FY09. The growths in agriculture in subject to vagaries of nature and not infrequently follows an irregular pattern. Services, the largest sector of the economy, followed a consistently healthy growth rate of around 7 percent during last few years before receding to 3.6 percent in FY09. However, the growth of the services sector has far from being broad-based as it the financial sub-sector, growing by 30 percent on average between FY05 and FY08 before registering negative growth of 1.2 percent in FY09, that has been the major contributor to its growth.

Having outlined the growth pattern, let's turn to reasons for slowdown of the economy. To begin with, the healthy economic growth during FY04-FY08 (the Musharraf period) did not rest on strong fundamentals and therefore could not provide a basis for sustained expansion of the economy. That growth was largely on account of inflow of foreign capital in the form of foreign investment, foreign aid and workers' remittances. In particular, FDI inflows lay behind the sound performance of the services sector and the financial sub-sector. On the other hand, key economic indicators on the whole registered a sharp downward trend as reflected by the low level of savings and investment, high inflation, and large fiscal and current account deficits.

The present government in an attempt to correct the economic fundamentals preferred stability to growth. The agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also provides for stabilisation policies. Such policies, however, are not without cost. In case of Pakistan, the most obvious cost is that they have retarded the pace of economic growth as the government adopted restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, which in a nutshell translated into drastic cut in public spending, particularly on the heads of developmental expenditure and subsidies, and maintaining high interest rates. The recently announced monetary policy for September-October 2009 has retained the discount rate at 13 percent.

What is worse, deceleration in economic growth has been accompanied by high inflation -- stagflation as the phenomenon is called. Normally, policy makers face a trade off between high GDP growth and low inflation. However, at times, this choice is no longer available. The result is increase in prices accompanied by contraction of output growth and consequent fall in employment and incomes -- the worst of the two worlds to use a common phrase. During FY08, GDP growth went down from 7 to 4.1 percent, while average inflation went up from 7.8 to 12 per cent. During FY09, GDP growth further slipped to 2 percent, while average inflation shot up to 25 percent.

The capital cause of stagflation is supply-side inflation, which can be attributed not to excessive demand but to fall in output and the consequent increase in prices. A combination of domestic and external factors lies at the bottom of fall in output of the manufacturing sector and the LSM sub-sector. One, due to the precarious law and order situation created in the main by the war on terror and political upheavals, both domestic and foreign investors have been reluctant to invest. Historically, Pakistan has received meagre FDI inflows in the manufacturing sector because this entails a long-term commitment, which foreign investors by and large have been shy of undertaking. Two, high interest rates have increased the cost of doing business and thus lowered estimated profits. Three, cartels in the basic industries of ghee, sugar and cements have colluded to create artificial shortage and raise prices. Four, inflation together with the energy shortage pushed up cost of production. Five weak domestic demand together with the global economic crisis, particularly recession in Pakistan's major export markets, made businesses uncertain of selling their output and thus discouraged productive investment.

Finally, we have the classic case of an economic crisis breeding on itself. The uncertain politico-economic environment resulted in flight of the capital to markets perceived to be more stable or at least exhibiting less uncertainty. Fall in investment reduced output, employment and real incomes and drove down the aggregate demand. Fall in aggregate demand reduced consumption and investment expenditure. The only way out of this vicious circle is for the government to step up public spending. However, this is not coming through as containing fiscal deficit (4.9 percent for FY10) remains the government's priority.

Finally, we come to the likely impact of deceleration in economic growth. One, when economic growth shrinks, investment level goes down, jobs are lost and incomes fall. Consequently, unemployment and poverty levels rise. The rise in unemployment and poverty further reduces the aggregate demand resulting into lower investment demand and thus slower GDP growth. The growth recession during last two years shows that Pakistan's economy is well into this vicious circle.

Two, increased poverty and unemployment have enormous social cost as the affected people can become a convenient tool in the hands of destabilizing forces. This is particularly relevant to Pakistan, which is facing an insurgency in its northwestern part. Three, economic development requires sustained growth in the economy. Contraction of growth will hamper efforts for development and make it difficult for the country to break the shackles of under-development and backwardness. Four, sluggish growth, particularly lacklustre performance of the commodity producing sector, would increases supply-side inflation. To ward off supply-side inflation, the country will have to increase imports, which will put pressure on the balance of payment (BoP) position. Such a situation would place the government, if it has not already done, in a dilemma. If imports are restricted, inflation will go up, which will have enormous social, economic and political costs. But if increased imports are allowed and exports do not go up significantly (growth recession negatively affects export performance), current account deficit will increase. Finally, revenue generation being a function of economic growth, as economy slowdowns, revenue receipts will fall. During FY09 tax-GDP ratio fell to 9 percent from 10 percent in the preceding year.

In such a scenario, even the relatively modest target of 3.3 percent economic growth seems rather ambitious.