Failure of global trade talks under World Trade Organization (WTO) to move forward has given rise to free trade agreements (FTAs) across the world. Countries are falling over each other's heels to sign bilateral trade agreements, which are one of the variants of FTAs, with their neighbours as well their major trade partners.

Theoretically, FTAs aim at removing barriers to trade and investment. They create a freer flow of goods, services, investment and people. An FTA is a legally binding agreement between two or more countries to liberalise trade and bring about closer economic integration. It allow the parties to the agreement to give each other preferential market access and thereby helping to foster and facilitate the flow of trade and investment between the trading partners.

In the Pakistani context, our businesses will find it easier to trade with our FTA partners and to invest in their markets. These agreements also present business opportunities for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to enhance their market access and share.

Before counting the positive and negative outcomes of FTAs for Pakistan, it's important to have a cursory look at the international trade scene. Multilateral and regional trade agreements have brought about radical trade liberalisation across the world since 1990s. Multilateralism had a giant leap forward with the successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, which resulted in the setting up of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. A multilateral trade regime, as manifested in WTO, is always a preferred option over bilateralism because bilateral agreements have inherent weakness, especially when one party to a trade agreement comes from the developing countries of the South and the other from the developed North. This situation is bound to create asymmetric negotiating power and imbalanced resources to carry out the negotiations.

After the WTO came into existence, several new issues related to intellectual property rights and social issues, such as labour standards and environment also became part of the trade issues for multilateral negotiations. In WTO's Singapore ministerial meeting, four new initiatives -- investment, competitive policy, transparency in government procurement and trade facilitation, commonly known as Singapore issues -- also became part of the negotiations under WTO. These issues, however, were kept out of the 'single undertaking', though working groups were set up to further deliberate on them. The process still goes on.

All these aspects, together, created uneasiness among the developing countries. They viewed all these developments as having implications for the growth of their trade, commerce and economic activity.

The Cancun ministerial meeting of WTO in 2003 ended in disarray, prompting countries to seek other means of market access and trade liberalisation. With WTO-initiated multilateral liberalisation of trade facing significant delays for various reasons including disagreement over agriculture policies, countries are opting to forge regional or bilateral free trade agreements to accelerate better access to international markets.

Due to these reasons both the industrialised and developing countries have taken recourse to regionalism, the former through expansion in the European Union and by the creation of North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the latter through various regional organisations like Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). They also started signing bilateral agreements in a bid to keep their markets intact. At present, more than 60 per cent of the global trade is being channelised through bilateral and regional trading arrangements. It is estimated that roughly 300 such arrangements are put in place at present. But in this process, the developing world has got marginalised.

It is in this backdrop that we need to analyse the significance of free trade agreements for Pakistan. It is essential for Pakistan to align itself with growing economies by establishing bilateral and regional trading arrangements so as to keep its international trade at the present level as well as to give it a fillip and attain its due market share by securing a higher percentage of the total global trade. Besides, Pakistan is pursuing a policy of export-led growth for which the issues of market access are very important.

To pursue these objectives, the government has launched a carefully designed and orchestrated trade diplomacy. Recent high level visits of the president and the prime minister are primarily aimed at strengthening trade relations with countries in South Asia, East Asia, Pacific and South America. But at the same time, there is no ignoring our major trading partners -- that is, America and the European Union. Market access initiatives in these countries are also being pursued with renewed vigour in the perspective of Pakistan's role in the fight against terrorism. The high level of political relations with the US and the EU needs to be translated into deeper economic and commercial relations.

Pakistan's objectives in negotiating bilateral and regional preferential/free trade agreements are mainly as follows:

• To seek better market access by addressing tariff and non-tariff measures.

• To further facilitate and promote trade, investment, and economic development.

• To enhance the competitiveness of exporters; and

• To build capacity in specific targeted areas through technical cooperation and collaboration.

The present day FTAs are not confined to liberalisation and market opening measures alone. They are comprehensive and include investment, trade facilitation, intellectual property rights as well as economic cooperation in many areas like information and communication, science & technology, education and training, research & development, financial cooperation and SME development etc. Accordingly, the clauses in all the newly instituted FTAs are not restricted to goods. Services and investment are also included in them. For instance, Pakistan has entered into an FTA with Sri Lanka. So far it covers goods but soon it will broaden to cover services and investment as well. This will transform the FTA into a comprehensive economic partnership.

Pakistan is also pursuing the policy of securing markets and economic linkages with China and a number of countries in the East Asia. The initiative with China has been of great significance. Pakistan has negotiated an Early Harvest Programme with China while a comprehensive FTA will be put in place within a year. The Early Harvest Programme was operationalised on January 1, 2006 and has enabled Pakistan to secure market access on all items of our present day export interest. These items will attract zero tariffs in China latest by January 1, 2008. Major tariff reduction, however, will be witnessed as early as January 1, 2006, providing unprecedented market access to our exports in the large and growing market of China, comprising a population of more than the combined population of the European Union and America. The items on which market access will be available include bed-linen, table linen, other home textiles, towels, cotton & blended fabrics, articles of marble, surgical goods, sports goods, cutlery, etc. Pakistan has agreed only to eliminate duties on certain items like organic chemicals and machinery in two years. Both sides will also simultaneously eliminate tariff on certain fruits and vegetables. The ambit of the existing Preferential Trade Agreement has also been considerably enlarged and made a part of the Early Harvest Programme. This will create a linkage with China for our industries to source machinery from there at zero duty and will help boost industrial activity in Pakistan. This will generate employment, result in SME development and help alleviate poverty.

In accordance with Pakistan's policy of establishing close linkage with East Asian countries, our trade diplomacy efforts are now focused on Asean. It is worthwhile to mention that our trade with all Asian countries, other than those in the Middle East, was $ 8 billion in 2003-4 (exports $2.8 billion, imports $5.2 billion). A major chunk of this trade volume was with Japan and China. But the trade with East Asian countries was only around $2 billion. Also, the trade balance with Asia is heavily tilted against Pakistan.

Asean is an alliance of 10 countries, which include four Asian tigers -- that is, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Asean Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) is the most successful FTA in Asia. Under its operation, intra-Asean trade has expanded from $ 82.4 billion in 1993 to $ 174.2 billion in 2003. In 1993, intra-Asean trade was 19 per cent of Asean's global trade, which has increased to 22 per cent in 2003. The Asean leaders agreed in October 2003, in their Summit at Bali, Indonesia, to establish the Asean Economic Community (AEC) by 2020. AEC is envisaged as a single market and production base with free flow of goods, services, investment, skilled labour and free flow of capital. To realize AEC, Asean leaders agreed during the 10th Asean Summit in November 2004 to accelerate tariff elimination and facilitate trade and investment in 11 priority sectors, which include electronics, healthcare, wood-based products, automotives, rubber-based products, textiles and apparels, agro-based products, fisheries, air travel and tourism. Timeline for the implementation of these measures ranges from 2005 to 2010. Apart from tariff elimination, the roadmaps have also been developed and focused on investment facilitation measures.

It does not need any extra emphasis that Pakistan cannot afford to waste any time in pursuing an FTA with Asean, as a whole. To achieve this objective, President Pervez Musharraf visited Philippines and Indonesia and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz visited Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei, recently. In all these countries Pakistan was able to develop consensus that it should get a full dialogue partnership with Asean, followed by summit level participation. This will lead us to initiate FTA negotiations with Asean as a region. In the meanwhile, negotiations have already begun with Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Laos for bilateral FTAs. The negotiations with Malaysia are at an advance stage and an agreement on Early Harvest programme has become operational since January 1, 2006.

Pakistan has deep cultural, political and religious linkages with the Middle East. Our major imports of crude and petroleum products are sourced from the countries there. Pakistan's total trade with the Middle East during 2003-04 was $ 5.3 billion, representing exports of only $ 1.6 billion. Pakistan has initiated negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council for a bilateral FTA while GCC is negotiating an FTA with the European Union which, if it comes about, will be the first FTA between two regional blocks. Having an FTA with GCC, therefore, will indirectly link us to the European Union in due course.

Pakistan is an important country in South Asia and after India the biggest economy of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). It's under Saarc that the countries in South Asia are trying to come close to eath other in trade and other economic sectors. Their vehicle to do so is the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (Safta) which was signed in Islamabad in January 2004 and has been ratified by all Saarc member countries.

Within Saarc, Pakistan has already concluded an FTA with Sri Lanka, which was put to operation in 2005. Negotiations are also underway with Nepal and Bangladesh for similar arrangements. These bilateral FTAs between various Saarc countries will help them create a viable regional environment for Safta's success. It's important in this respect that even India, despite all the political issues intervening, is engaged with Pakistan in trade talks through the composite dialogue process. The two countries have set up a study group to address tariff and non-tariff barriers to establish a level playing field for bilateral trade.

As far as FTA with Sri Lanka is concerned, the business communities in both countries will benefit immensely from this pact. The duty rebates alone will lift a heavy burden off their shoulders. Sri Lanka will grant duty free access on 102 tariff lines, Pakistan will reciprocate granting Sri Lanka duty free access on 206 tariff lines. Sri Lanka will eliminate customs duty on 4,527 tariff lines out of its total 5,224 tariff lines over a period of next five years. Pakistani oranges, chickpeas, cumin seeds, fennel seed, motorcycles and accessories will enjoy duty free access in the Sri Lankan market. These concessions will benefit not only the business communities but also the common man in both the countries.

Pakistan, by its geographical location, is a gateway to Central Asia. So, our relationship with Afghanistan and the countries beyond has assumed special significance. It is not by accident that Afghanistan is now Pakistan's second largest trading partner in the world after the United States. Pakistan is also pursuing a regional FTA with Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey and six Central Asian States under the Economic Cooperation Organization Trade Agreement (ECOTA). Separately with Iran, Pakistan has already concluded a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). It became operational in September 2006.

Pakistan is an active member of Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC). It's under the umbrella of this organisation that an ambitious project of Trade Preferential System (TPS) is being negotiated. Similarly, Pakistan is also pursuing a D-8 initiative within the OIC. The countries involved in this initiative comes from three continents and having great potential to become a meaningful market for each other's products. A preferential trade agreement between the D-8 countries was signed during a recent D-8 Summit at Bali.

As mentioned earlier, Pakistan has launched market access initiatives with the United States as well as the European Union. Planning is underway to initiate negotiations with some African countries and the countries of South America like Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

However, there is no breakthrough in signing of FTA with the United States, which has linked it with the inking of a bilateral investment treaty and is not prepared to accommodate Pakistan's reservations over the issue. There was a clause introduced in the final text of the investment treaty by the US government that talked about 'pre establishment phase of investment' which Pakistan wanted to be excluded. According to the proposed clause, if any problem arises for the US investor even when he is about to set up his business in Pakistan, he should be compensated. Pakistan says how could any US investor be allowed to seek any compensation when the business has not been set up.

The American government is applying NAFTA standards to sign the investment treaty with Pakistan which is very unfavourable to Pakistan. Why this is so is shown by Canada and Mexico. The countries' economies are heavily suffering after they entered into an unfavourable investment treaty with the United States. Due to this imbalanced treaty, the United States has won all the cases against Canada and Mexico and as a result both the countries are facing huge financial losses. The United States generally makes an investment treaty in such a manner that in case of arbitration the interests of the US investors are always well protected.

All said, free market economists are inclined as a matter of principle to advise against bilateral or regional free trade agreements. There is an apprehension that interest in negotiating regional and bilateral free trade agreements and customs unions threatens the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system. The way in which the European Community protects its agricultural markets clearly illustrates the case.

As mentioned earlier, due to inherent weaknesses of the bilateral arrangements, these are not a priority solution as there are a lot of chances of creating highly imbalanced outcomes during negotiations due to unequal clout of the partners. Moreover, FTAs involve a lot of cost in terms of human resource commitment to negotiate bilateral agreements. So the preferred arrangement is a multilateral trade regime, where countries can economise on the negotiating fatigue by pooling their resources.

Despite the fact that Pakistan's textile sector has been enjoying a lot of concessions for many years, the exports of textile products including value-added garments have recently shown a declining trend due to tough competition in international markets. India, Bangladesh and China have given a tough time to Pakistan because the products from these countries are competitive and their exporters are very aggressive in marketing them.

Pakistani textile exporters have been enjoying access to the markets in the United States and the European Union for decades due to the quota system. But after the implementation of quota free regime by early 2005 under the World Trade Organization, these exporters have started having tough time. The first year after the end of quota was easy because Pakistani exporters had made a lot of preparations to face the music by heavily investing in machinery and equipment. But gradually, there preparations gave way to a slow down in their exports as competition by other countries increased.

This is not to say that it has been absolute losing game. Pakistani exports have increased in quantity, though they have decreased in value. In July 2006, Pakistani textile exports fell by 7.8 per cent in dollar terms to $784.273 million against $850.614 million during July last year.

In July, 2006 exports of readymade garments were down by 7.5 per cent while shipments of cotton fabrics and bed linen declined by 12.55 per cent and 9.61 per cent respectively. This is in sharp contrast to the rise of 15 per cent and 38 per cent reported in the last fiscal year (in July 2005).

The traditional competitors of Pakistan, India and China had started posing threat to Pakistani exporters even before the start of quota free regime. But now many other countries like Bangladesh have also entered into the race. These competitors have posted encouraging results in their textile exports in recent years and are growing at a phenomenon speed.

Pakistani textile manufacturers see it a challenge that even a non-cotton producing country, Bangladesh, is performing well and is posing threat to the traditionally strong Pakistani textile sector. Textile exporters point out that the Bangladeshi government has provided incentives. Similarly, the respective governments of other textile exporting countries have also provided special packages for boosting textile exports. India has come up with a $6 billion Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme that gives textile investors a 5 per cent discount on their long-term borrowing. For processing mills, there is another 10 per cent capital subsidy available over and above the money available through the fund.

Bangladesh encourages its yarn and fabric manufacturers by giving garment mills a 5 per cent subsidy on local procurement of yarn. They have now attained a capacity of over 5 million spindles despite the fact that there is no indigenous cotton cultivation and no man-made fibre production in the country. Also, Bangladesh being a Least Developed Country (LDC) is already enjoying duty-free access for its textiles and clothing products to developed Western countries.

The emergence of China as a major force in world textiles is also a cause for concern in a number of textile sub sectors in Pakistan.

After WTO's quota free regime, Pakistani markets have become flooded with imported textile products, particularly children's and women's garments. Products from Thailand, Indonesia and China are easily available at very competitive prices. The same is the situation in international markets and Pakistani exporters are facing cut-throat competition from other countries.

The giant textile sector is facing difficulties in competing because of a number of home-grown reasons despite having already invested over $5 billion since 2000, with plans to invest another $6 billion in the next five years. These reasons include rising energy and financial costs and a lack of aggressive marketing.

"We can compete with textile exporters easily, but we cannot compete with governments (of India , China or Bangladesh)," remarks Mushtaq Vohra, Chairman of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), Sindh-Balochistan Zone.

The declining trend in textile exports has caused worries among economic managers of the country in general and the private sector in particular because textile sector alone is the main earner of Pakistan's foreign exchange. It contributes about 11 per cent of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 40 per cent of the workforce in the manufacturing sector. The sector is responsible for 62 per cent of the total exports of Pakistan. This heavy dependence on one sector has cost Pakistan heavily not just because all the various and huge incentives provided to this sector are failing to pay off.

What are these incentives? The government has made a separate ministry to address the problems of textile industry. This is on top of other government institutions already there to facilitate this heavyweight industry. The Export Promotion Bureau, the Textile Commissioner's Office and the Textile Quota Management Department are but a few examples of these institutions whose sole reason to exist is to assist textile exporters.

The government also announced an incentive package worth Rs 25 billion for the textile sector in July this year besides other incentives offered in the annual Trade Policy 2006-07. The Economic Coordination Committee of the federal cabinet announced the textile package on July 15, 2006 to give a boost the textile industry. Under the package, garments and knitwear industries are given a six per cent research and development rebate whereas fabrics and home textiles are also given three per cent and five per cent research and development rebates respectively. Under this scheme, Rs 15 billion have been set aside for research and development in textile sector. Under the textile package, the government has announced to form various committees to suggest further incentives. A committee will explore the possibility of zero duty on import of weaving machines and spare parts and another is being formed to examine actual zero rating of all textiles & clothing exports.

The State Bank of Pakistan has also announced to continue providing long-term financing for export oriented projects at the reduced mark up of 7 per cent and 6 per cent for seven year and three year periods respectively. The bank has also simplified procedure for the loans. The export re-financing rate has also been reduced to 7.5 per cent from 9 per cent.

The state bank in a separate announcement has allowed one-time opportunity to textile sector units to refinance their outstanding fixed-term loans availed from banks/Development Financial Institutions for import of plant and machinery with loans under SBP's Long-Term Financing for Export Oriented Projects (LTF-EOP) Scheme. This facility is being provided to textile exporters to overcome the prevailing crisis and to remain competitive in the world market. For this scheme, only those fixed term loans of textile sector will be eligible for refinance which had been obtained on or after January 1, 2003. No loan disbursed prior to January 1, 2003 will be refinanced under this scheme. Spinning units will also not be able to benefit from this scheme.

Talking to The News on Sunday, Mushtaq Vohra says Pakistani textile products are very good in quality and are available in adequate quantity to meet the demands of international buyers. "But the cost of doing business is high. So it is very difficult to compete."

Some people point out that one reason why textile exports are not picking up is because the incentive package is seriously flawed. "All incentives have been offered for the big industries. The small industries and commercial exporters will not be able to get any benefit from the (official) schemes," says Muzzamil Mussani, a research analyst at Jehangir Siddiqui Securities.

He says the government's incentives are mostly non-monetary in nature because the government wants to give moral support to the sector instead of pumping funds into it. "The government has provided its money only for research and development purposes."

Spinners, who make yarn and grey cloth from ginned cotton, are also unhappy with all these incentives. "This package is not for us. Only the value added sector will benefit from it," says Nadeem Maqbool, an owner of a textile spinning mill in Karachi.

Mushtaq Vohra of APTMA is also skeptical of the SBP incentives on LFT-EOP scheme. He says the scheme goes against a promised made by the prime minister that incentives would be provided to everyone in the sector but the scheme benefits only a portion of the sector. "The refinance facility has been provided on loans taken before a certain period of time which leaves out most loans obtained in 2000-2001 by the textile industries for building, modernisation and restructuring (BMR) to prepare themselves to compete in quota free regime."

He also points out that only 13 percent of all textile related loans -- standing at about Rs 130 billion -- are acquired by value added industries like dyeing and finishing mills. "Most of the bank loans are taken by spinners under BMR." He questions the utility of a scheme which, according to him, a majority of textile industries cannot avail.

Vohra says when these loans were taken by the textile sector in 2000 and 2001 interest rate of commercial banks was very low, ranging between three per cent and four percent. "It has now shot up to 12 per cent to 14 percent. Due to these costly loans and a lack of infrastructure, how can Pakistani manufacturers compete in international markets?"

Textile industrials worry it will be difficult to achieve $ 18.6 billion export target for the current fiscal year if nothing is done to stem the declining trend in exports.

Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property in order to pressurise or threaten a government or the civilian population to gain political or social objectives. In the late 20th century, terrorism became a tool of political groups in Europe, Middle East, and Asia. The growth of international terrorism led to kidnappings, hijacking and bombing of airplanes, destruction of buildings, and armed attacks on government and public facilities.

Terrorism reaches back to ancient Greece and has occurred throughout history but the use of term 'terror' and 'terrorism' dates from the Reign of Terror (1793-94) in the French Revolution, though these terms have taken on additional meaning in the 20th century. Terrorism involves activities such as assassinations, bombings, random killings and hijackings.

Used for political, not military purposes and most typically by groups too weak to mount open assaults, it is a modern tool of the alienated and its psychological impact on the public has increased because of extensive coverage by the print and electronic media.

Terrorism has many faces and political motives. Without political motives, terrorists can only see themselves and be seen by others as nothing but common criminals. Terrorists are in the business of advancing their cause, as one expert put it, by using a strategy of the weak to weaken the strong and strengthening the weak. Terrorists see themselves as undeserved underdogs on a mission.

Political terrorism also may be part of a government campaign to eliminate the opposition, as under Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin and others, or may be part of a revolutionary effort to overthrow a regime. Terrorist attacks also are now a common tactic in guerrilla warfare. Governments find attacks by terrorist groups difficult to prevent.

Terrorism by radicals of both the left and right and by nationalists became widespread after World War II. Since the late 20th centaury acts of terrorism have been associated with the Italian Red Brigades, the Irish Republic Army, the Palestine Liberation organisation, Peru's Shinning Path, Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Weathermen and some members of US 'militia' organisations, among many groups. Religiously inspired terrorism has also occurred, such as, that of extremist Christian opponents of abortion in the United States; of extremist Muslims associated with Hamas, Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda, and other organisations; of extremist Sikhs and Hindus (the latter demolished a Mughal-era mosque in India and were involved in anti-Muslim massacres in Indian state of Gujarat; and of Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, a religious cult which released nerve gas in Tokyo's subway system (1995).

Terrorism is not a movement but a tactic used by a wide variety of groups -- some of which are regarded and supported as 'freedom fighters' in various countries or by various peoples. It is the systematic use of terror or violence to achieve political goals. In most cases terrorists seek to overthrow or destabilise an existing political regime, but totalitarian and dictatorial governments also use terror to maintain their power.

All terrorist motives exhibit one over-arching theme, that is,injustice. Terrorists emerge and identify with a large group of people whom they perceive to be unfairly repressed. The repressive political authorities are known and hated. Whether Northern Ireland's Irish Republic Army, the Basque ETA group in Spain, Kashmiri Harkatul Mujahideen, Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Lebanese Hizbullah, Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Algerian Armed Islamic Group, or exiled Saudi Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda, all these terrorist organisations proclaim to represent a group not getting its due. And this due is usually portrayed as an independent political system organised according to a desired ideology. They all proclaim to suffer under an alien, corrupt and/or illegitimate power and ideology.

Many terrorists come from relatively impoverished backgrounds. For example, the July 7 London suicide bombers came from a relatively deprived area of Leeds. However, many other terrorists have come from wealthy and even upper-class backgrounds, such as the September 11 hijackers. This has led many sociologists to speculate that the problem may not be poverty, but relative deprivation, in that these people may be searching for a cause to follow, or believe that they lack spiritual fulfillment.

Militant groups frequently express the idea that society is 'decadent' and contrary to their values, or the values of the wider group to which they belong. This may appeal to disaffected youths, who may experience feelings of isolation or have faced actual or perceived discrimination.

Terrorism is not inherently irrational behaviour. Research on terrorism has shown that the it has been particularly effective in anti-colonial struggles for independence, although far less so in international wars, revolutions, and changing hated government policies. Working for justice is a prerequisite for tracking down and bringing to account those who reject the pursuit of justice.

The so-called state-sponsored terrorism, in which governments provide support or protection to terrorist groups that carry out proxy attacks against other countries, also complicates international efforts to end terror attacks. The statement that 'one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter' has become not only a formula, but also one of the most difficult obstacles in coping with terrorism.

In the struggle against terrorism, the problem of definition is a crucial element in an attempt to coordinate international collaboration. The foreign and interior ministers of the Arab League reiterated this position at their April 1998 meeting in Cairo. In a document entitled 'Arab Strategy in the Struggle against Terrorism,' they emphasised that belligerent activities aimed at 'liberation and self determination' were not in the category of terrorism, whereas hostile activities against regimes or families of rulers will not be considered political attacks but rather criminal assaults.

In 1999 the UN Security Council unanimously called for better international cooperation in fighting terrorism and asked governments not to aid terrorists. Since then, financial sanctions have been placed by many countries, including Pakistan, on a number of organisations that directly or indirectly support terrorists.

The September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon -- the most devastating terrorist attacks in history -- prompted, calls by US political leaders for an international 'war on terrorism'.

The 2001 bio-terror attacks in which anthrax spores were mailed to various US media and government offices may not be linked to the events of September 11, but they raised the specter of biological and chemical terrorism and revealed the difficulty of dealing with such attacks.

Now, how all this affects Pakistan? After the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan has been target of terrorism in one form or the other. Pakistan's involvement as American ally in Afghanistan war put direct pressure on Pakistani economy. During the post-invasion era, for decades, Pakistan has borne tremendous direct and indirect socioeconomic pressure due to massive immigration of Afghan nationals. Another out come of this involvement was massive influx of arms which spread throughout the country giving birth to what is called Klashnikov culture.

This involvement also enhanced violence under the garb of sectarianism. The groups fighting in Afghanistan took the form of Mujahideen and ultimately a semi-stable Taliban government in Afghanistan. These Mujahideen were created to checkmate the enlargement of former Soviet Union but instead they become the breeding ground for religiously-motivated terrorists who ended up challenging the American and the Western way of life.

All these factors gave rise to more insecure law and order situation in Pakistan. Even during the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan government actually had a very little say in the affairs of its neighbour though apparently it had a lot.

In view of all this, Pakistan started to work on eliminating or reducing the factors giving rise to terrorism and insecurity. After the Twin Tower terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Pakistan joined the coalition of nations engaged in the war on terror on the behest of the United States.

The major benefit Pakistan gained is that it redefined its attitude towards the rest of the world, adopting a flexible and cooperative posture. It also gained some economic benefits and gained a relatively better standing among the nations of the world as compared to its previous status. Though new threats emerged, short term domestic law and order and security situation has slightly improved from what it was during the early 1990s or late 1980s.

But at the same time, the status of being an American ally has put Pakistan at a relatively much higher risk of terrorist attacks. Recent terrorist attacks on mosques, shrines and senior government officials exhibit the severity of problem.

We can conclude from the above argument and the available evidence that Pakistan has been and will continue to be one of the main victims of terrorist nuisance. While discussing the importance of the issue of terrorism and the role of Pakistan as a community, a society, a nation or a country in countering or supporting it, the foremost issue that needs to be take into account is that Pakistan itself is an affected party.

The two components of Pakistan's role in the global war on terrorism originate from the twin terrorist threats the country faces. These threats are internal terrorism and international terrorism.

Pakistan has continuously faced internal terrorism for the past few decades. One of the forms that internal terrorism can take is indigenous terrorist groups involved in sectarian conflicts which cause great pain and disturbance in the society. This kind of terrorism can be eradicated or minimised by addressing the following issues:

• By emphasising national interest, moral values and patriotism through education.

• By clarifying the real Islamic concept of jehad in a Muslim community.

• By including peace studies in curriculum of different institutions to bring about awareness among the youth. The subject should focus on the importance of peaceful relations with different neighbouring countries of the region and international community.

The second form of terrorism that Pakistan faces is international terrorism. The term 'international terrorism' means terrorism involving the territory or the citizens of more than one country. Addressing this component, requires changes in polices according to international norms and the laws as laid down by the United Nations. Main ways to go about doing it are as follows:

• Create strong relationship with international community, the Organisation of Islamic Conference and the United Nations.

• Create clear laws and strong intelligence network in country.

• Resolve international and regional problems like issue of Kashmir.

These two interrelated types of terrorism are central points when it comes to explain the link between September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States and military operations in Pakistan's tribal areas.

It was because of Pakistan's willingness to tackle both internal and international terrorism after the 9/11 incident that the Pakistani government has gained a global acceptability. It is now seen as an ally in the global war on terrorism launched by the West.

But what has not changed is the main policies of the government. This means that religion still plays an important role in society, Kashmir is still the main issue and the United States still the main ally of Pakistan. Both the government and the opposition are are still only very partially accountable and not much sensitive to media pressure. Moderate political parties could have gained a lot of popular support by only doing just that -- making themselves accountable and responsive. This would have further weakened the political and electoral prospects of religious parties have never gone beyond garnering 11 per cent of the votes.

This only proves the point that there is no simple solution to the problem of terrorism. Any effort to check it should involve individuals, groups, governments, laws and economics.

In the Pakistani context, it's also important to note how Islam defines terrorism and how these definitions can be employed to curb the menace. Islamic jurists have probed into the various aspects of the subject. We have Islamic judgments on al-baghy -- that is, armed revolt by a group against a just and legitimate government. This type of revolt thrives on the intimidation of the general public and the pursuit of divisive political goals that damage national unity. We also have judgements on al-harabah, which is defined as 'the use of weapons, on land or sea, by day or night, to intimidate people, in a city or elsewhere, by a male or female, strong or weak'. These judgments clearly lay down the conditions in which the use of arms is allowed in which ones it is not.

Islam upholds the principle of personal responsibility and considers any attack on innocent people as a major crime. It focuses on the defence of the weak, the humble and the oppressed and enjoins jihad for their protection.

And this is not just specific to one religion, one country or one people. We may notice that there exists a universal unanimity among international community in treating certain types of activities as inhuman. These include colonialism and the undermining of peoples' dignity and plundering of their resources; racism and the disintegration of human brotherhood; violation of all recognised rights and the breaking of covenants; bombardment of populated areas, use of chemical weapons; attacks on civil aviation; national railways; commercial and tourist vessels, and similar methods which are universally condemned.

Despite this universal consensus, the ways to overcome terrorism have so far remained limited to facilitating and legitimising the use of force against hard-core terrorists. Without taking into consideration the motive of terrorists and dealing with their grievances that may have merit, counter-terrorism is compelled to rely on brute force -- something which is likely to generate more terrorism and terrorists. The more counter-terrorism is treated in terms of policing and military actions, the more complicated will the ways and means available for doing so. What can change the situation for the better is a patient diplomacy at international level.

Under these circumstances, when a person allows himself to be induced to commit terrorism or aggression, the whole mankind will stand up against him or her. If, however, we fail to fulfill this standard, all our treatments and efforts will produce limited results. They are like palliative which may relieve pain but will not eradicate the cause of the pain.

Water is said to be a driving force for improved crops but its abundance can also lead to a long lasting devastation of agriculture. At least this is what people in lower Sindh are discovering where torrential rains a couple of weeks ago have destroyed crops over a vast area of fertile agricultural lands which have the capacity to produce high quality crops. This damage has had a very negative impact on the entire agrarian economy of Sindh, thus slashing the national crops' output.

The torrential rainfall that lashed many parts of lower Sindh from Hyderabad to Matiari and from Badin to Thatta, has badly affected standing crops, destroying most of them completely. The rains have not been an unmixed evil, though. The areas like Thar, Kohistan and Kachoo have widely benefited from them. In these areas, they have brought happiness and life.

In may other areas, the rains have caused huge losses to the farming community of the province, which has remained disturbed for many years due to water shortage. It's ironical that when the water finally came in the shape of rainfall, it is proving lethal. Crops standing on thousands of acres of land have been damaged. According to rough estimates, the growers have incurred losses running in billions of rupees if not trillions of them.

Cotton, rice, wheat, sugar cane, bananas and mangoes are the most important crops of Sindh. The province produces 41 per cent of the country's total rice, 31 per cent of its sugarcane, 21 per cent of its cotton and 14.8 per cent of its wheat.

The rains that came pouring down on September 7 and September 8 have played havoc with cash crops, once again proving, if any proof was needed at all, that agriculture and the population involved in it are highly prone to the vagaries of weather.

Local agriculturists say that command areas of Sukkur barrage, tail ends of canal command areas, the command area of Kotri barrage as well as the rice belt of upper Sindh were facing severe water stress before it rained in July. But the intensity of July rains varied in various areas. It is this variation which has brought pain and laughter to different parts of Sindh after the devastating September rains. But they also point out that no area of the province has been left out which is not affected by rain after September 8. According to them, this has damaged or destroyed 80 per cent of cotton crop and 80 per cent of tomatoes, onion and other vegetables as well and the nurseries of fruits and vegetables.

According to the representatives of the growers, in most of the districts in the province rains have razed many houses to the ground and has killed livestock on a large scale. They fear that water standing on agricultural lands will not only destroy the current standing crops but it will also affect the soil in a way that people will not be able to sow any crop in the coming wheat season.

The growers' representative body, Sindh Abadgar Board, puts losses to cotton crop at 40 per cent, to sugarcane at 22 per cent, to chillies at 90 per cent, to tomatoes at 95 per cent, to melon at 100 per cent, to fodder at 20 per cent, to onions at 52 per cent onions. In the katcha areas, 100 per cent crops have been lost, incurring losses worth over Rs 30 billion, they point out.

In Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot, Badin, and Kachoo districts, there have been 90 percent damage to the crops while in Tando Mohammed Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Hyderabad Rural, Thatta and Nawabshah the crops have been partially affected. But this is not to suggest that this partial damage was evenly distributed across these districts. For instance talukas of Jhando Mari in Tando Allahyar and Daur in Nawabshah have been very badly hit. Other talukas in these districts have suffered 40 per cent to 60 per cent damage to the crops, depending on the type of the crop, amount of the rain fall and type of the land.

The growers are demanding that they are provided relief by deferring their financial liabilities they owe to the government, banks and the private sector. They also seek the complete waiver of all these liabilities in worst hit areas, something the government has failed to announce so far. The federal government should assess the damage to the infrastructure and in the villages and announce rehabilitation packages as it has done in the northern areas of the country, which were hit by a quake last year, they observe.

"It is essential to formulate a rehabilitation programme, actively supported by the federal government and the civil society," says Syed Mahmood Nawaz Shah, general secretary of Sindh Abadgar Board. He asks the government to provide 50 kg of wheat, two bags of urea fertilizer and one bag of DAP fertilizer to the people affected by the rains to enable them to sow wheat for the coming season. He tells The News on Sunday that these measure will not only help rehabilitate the farmers, they will also have a positive effect in jump-starting the economy in these areas. He also demands immediate reconstruction of the damaged infrastructure as well as proper arrangement for the drainage of rainwater.

The Sindh agriculture department also admits in its preliminary survey that the rains have dealt a huge blow to the agriculture sector of the province because cotton, sugarcane and rice crops and vegetables stand damaged in almost all the districts of Sindh.

According to the official survey, overall 32 per cent cotton-sown area of Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Tando Allahyar, Badin, Tando Muhammad Khan, Kashmore-Kandhkot, Hyderabad, Matiari, Jamshoro, Dadu, Shikarpur, Nawabshah, Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki districts has received damages as a result of the heavy rains.

The cotton-sowing target for the year 2006-07 was 640,000 hectares in Sindh. The growers had managed to meet 90 per cent of this target by cultivating the crop over an area of 573,870 hectares. But now the rains have damaged 23 per cent cotton crop, sown over 182,572 hectares in 22 districts of the province, which means the country will find it impossible to meet its cotton production target for the current fiscal year.

The government survey also conceded that loss to other crops and vegetables was equally great. It puts damage to chilli crop at 70 per cent, to sugarcane crop at 28 per cent and vegetables -- including onions and tomatoes -- at 80 per cent.

But the damage caused by the rain will not remain limited to agriculture. As has been shown, destruction of standing cotton crop means less cotton production which will result in slower growth in the textiles and will in the end bring down the country's exports. Also, the rice export will be 0.2 million tons less than the last year. In percentage it will be 25 per cent less than what it was last year. The value of the expected loss in rice exports stands at approximately $ 50 million.

The destruction of crops would not only affect growers but it will also affect consumers because the prices of agriculture commodities is sure to shoot up as a result of the destruction caused by the rains.

There is no denying the fact that Sindh has never suffered as devastating rains as it did this year for more than three decades but still the government appears totally ill-prepared to control the damage. There is no disaster management policy in place to tackle emergency circumstances.

Mahmood Nawaz points out at this glaring gap when he says that the infrastructure, agricultural land and human habitats are planned as if the rains will never happen. "It is because of this flawed approach that the destruction caused by the rain is so much more than it should have been."

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan received $ 811.85 million as workers' remittances during the first two months of the current fiscal year. This is 22.72 per cent more that what these remittances were in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

As a matter of fact, workers' remittances have historically worked as a silent supporter and one of the few lifelines of Pakistani economy. This is an open fact that emigrant workers not only send precious foreign exchange to Pakistan but also they try to compensate for the visibly absent social safety nets in their homeland. Thus, in a way they do what the government should be doing.

The birth of Pakistan as a nation is profoundly linked to migration. In the past 60 years, millions of its people have immigrated to and emigrated from Pakistan, resulting in a vast network of migrant connections around the world. These connections were very apparent in the large number of people returning to Pakistan following the October 2005 earthquake to help their friends, families and other near and dear ones. High levels of emigration in recent decades have resulted in millions of people of Pakistani origin living overseas (the government of Pakistan estimates that they number around seven million), many of them residing in much richer countries in the West and the Persian Gulf region. This is no coincidence, therefore, that Pakistan is one of the highest recipients of workers' remittances in the developing countries.

For many years, their remittances have far exceeded either foreign direct investment or official development assistance to Pakistan. In the 1980s, the remittances have been linked to a rapid decline in poverty levels during that period. Today, Pakistan's economy has an even higher level of remittances coming from abroad. During last fiscal year, when the earthquake occurred, the remittances recorded a noticeable increase of some $ 430 million and an annual growth rate of 10.35 per cent.

The flow of remittances initially increased significantly after 9/11. This has been attributed to both a move by remitters away from informal mechanisms and a desire to repatriate any savings being held in the foreign countries because the future policies towards these funds were not clear.

It is important to note that gauging remittance flows is fraught with difficulties because of differences in their definition as well as their recording and reporting. There exist a multitude of ways in which people can move money or goods around the world and thus a huge number of remittance mechanisms are in use. A common, but problematic, distinction in common use is a distinction between formal and informal mechanisms. So, it must be noted that the above mentioned figures do not include informal remittances that are estimated to be 50 per cent of formal/official flows of remittances in case of Pakistan. But one can't deny the importance of informal remittances because they are cost effective, quick, and can be sent to those areas also where people have no or little access to formal channels.

The usage of remittances has always intrigued many researchers and policy makers. Most of them conclude that remittances are often spent on subsistence -- on day to day household expenditures -- rather than on investment and/or saving. This use is termed 'non-productive' by many. But it is also recognised that these direct inflow of cash at household level may be extremely vital as a coping mechanism during the times of emergency and crisis. In other words, while other forms of income may be variable and unpredictable, remittance income is constant and allows the household to absorb unforeseen shocks. This implies that migrant workers' remittances can be a form of insurance for use at the time of urgent needs.

It is suggested that remittance flows increases as a result of crises. In the case of Pakistan this already stands proved because remittances significantly increased following the earthquake. People living in the earthquake-affected areas of Pakistan are long known to be reliant on remittances from migrant labour. Research and surveys before the earthquake show that reliance on remittances from migrant labour is very high in both NWFP and Azad Kashmir, from both people working within Pakistan and abroad.

Early assessments have identified that a large number of wage earners who normally work in distant cities within Pakistan had returned to their families immediately after the quake, often giving up their jobs and thus the household's income. This loss of domestic remittances was quickly highlighted as a significant problem and brought remittances to the forefront of aid agencies' thinking.

But the role of remittances in people's livelihoods in 'normal' times is not well understood and their role during emergencies even less so. In an attempt to fill the gap, this research was carried out to understand the importance of remittances. Another objective of the research is to highlight the ways in which humanitarian actors and governmental agencies could support and facilitate remittance flows.

Qualitative interviews and discussions were conducted with groups of men and women in camps and remote villages in Mansehra, Bagh, Muzaffarabad, and Mansehra district. The significant issue of migrant labourers having returned home was constantly discussed. Many spoke about the need for these men to be with their families until the family had a locking door and a roof as part of some sort of permanent shelter. Some men who had returned from the Middle East stated that the costs to migrate there in the first place were so high that they could not return without having lost their savings. Several people stated that Hundi, the informal system of sending remittances, had been highly disrupted, preventing remittances from getting through. Financial access was also an issue raised by some people while discussing problems in encashing cheques at banks and difficulties with identification documents. The earthquake destroyed post offices and banks and disrupted means of transferring cash to the quake-hit areas. Discussion with post office officials revealed that some systems were quickly re-established but not utilised as much as they had been for remittances before the earthquake.

Destination of emigrants

Communities in the highlands of Azad Kashmir and NWFP were dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods during pre-partition era. Livestock rearing and subsistence farming were major economic activities at that time. Then people migrated to nearby and far off towns and cities such as Muzaffarabad, Balakot, Abbottabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi for casual jobs. In late 1960s, some people from this area managed to go to the Middle East. During 1973, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, requested the Gulf states to provide jobs to unskilled Pakistanis. It was followed by an easy process of issuance of passport. This change in policy encouraged a number of persons to go abroad, especially those who were already working in Karachi. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the most common destinations for them. The early birds facilitated the new entrants and over the passage of time there were many recruitment agents who started facilitating emigration on a commercial level. Many people entered in Saudi Arabia on Umrah visa and overstayed there for daily waged jobs.

Frequency and amount of remittances

Frequency of remittances varied on case to case basis. Three trends were reported to be equally common, that is, on monthly basis, after every two months, and after every 3-4 months. Some senders were reported to be irregular in sending their remittances. It was informed that monthly remittances were common among emigrants working on contractual arrangements whereas those working as casual labourers used to send their remittances after every two or three months. In most of the cases, per month average amount of remittances was Rs 5000-10,000.

Here it should be mentioned that duration for which remittances senders are settled abroad plays an important role in the usage pattern as well as the impact of remittances in shaping the livelihoods of remittance receivers.

Mode of remittances

Hundi was reported to be most widely used mode of sending remittances. Hundi is preferred because it is quick, efficient, accessible to all, involves least documentation and incurs minimum transaction cost. It is used most when remittances are required on an urgent basis. Those who transfer money by hand prefer it for speediness, and find it trustworthy. Bank, as a medium of transfer, was preferred for larger transactions because it maintains secrecy and is considered to be comparatively safe. Here it is pertinent to mention that carrying money by hand was reported to be the most preferred secondary mode of remittance.

Before the earthquake, a majority of the respondents (68 per cent) did not have bank accounts because they felt that opening an account was too formal, bureaucratic, time consuming and a process that required too much documentation. Moreover, access to banks was also an issue. But after the earthquake, partly due to the government's compensation policy, a vast majority of respondents (90 per cent) have opened bank accounts.

Earthquake appears to have had no effect on the mode of transfers. But immediately after the disaster, there was a temporarily decrease in use of Hundi as a mode of remitting money. This was partially due to destruction of means of communication as well as due to displacement. This gap was filled by transfers through banks. Most of such transfers used an exceptional method, sending money to the accounts of relatives residing outside the affected area (that is, Peshawar, Islamabad, Abbottabad etc). Many emigrants brought remittances along as they returned to join their families in the quake zone. Eight months after the earthquake, use of Hundi as a mode of transfer has again gone back to normal.

Comparing receiving and non-receiving households

The research found out that receivers of remittances had generally better economic conditions than the non-receivers. Remittances receivers were better off, less vulnerable. They were better able to recover their physical and financial losses. The research saw a significant difference between the ownership of expensive consumer goods (televisions, refrigerators, radios), assets (houses, motorcycles, bicycles), and gold, by receivers and non-receivers before the earthquake. Even afterwards, the difference remained significant. None of the remittance receivers (in the study areas) had to sell their assets to meet other urgent needs. However, some non-receivers sold their gold jewellery and livestock after the earthquake to meet the cost of shelter and health.

Remittances and livelihoods

Life in quake hit highlands of Azad Kashmir and NWFP has always been difficult. Due to uneven topographic features and sever winters, farming alone has never been a secure livelihood strategy in most of these areas. It is in this context that remittances played a major role in securing livelihood for remittance receivers of Azad Kashmir and NWFP. The importance of these remittances to receivers means that the characteristics of receiving and non-receiving households' livelihoods are quite different. For instance, 96 per cent of receiving households stated that remittances were their primary source of income and were the sole source of income for half of them before the earthquake. In contrast, for non-remittance receivers, manual labour, farming (including livestock rearing), private jobs and services were important sources of livelihoods before the earthquake.

Remittances and food security

Food grain production has always remained limited in quake affected area. People had to procure food from market and store it for future use. There was comparatively less damage to stored food of remittance receivers than that of non-receivers. This is partly due to the fact that majority of the receivers had cemented houses which were partially damaged, compared to totally damaged mud-houses of non-remittance receivers.

Here it is pertinent to mention that October 8 earthquake was followed by many aftershocks. Due to these aftershocks, people living near fault lines were forced to leave their houses to live in tents and camps irrespective of the fact whether their houses were completely or partially destroyed. During that time they were not able to access their stored food. Thus, earthquake affected the access to food, at least for a short span of time, for both the receivers as well as non-receivers. As a result receivers as well as non receivers were equally dependent on external food aid immediately after the earthquake. This dependence on external food aid continued for first few months, till the flow of remittances resumed.

Remittances and relief assistance

It was also observed that remittances played an important role in facilitating access to relief goods. Remittances receivers had the means (either they owned transport or were able to pay the rent for hired transport) to reach major distribution points. Especially in district Batagram, 51 per cent respondents said remittances had enabled them to reach the nearest distribution points for humanitarian aid. Non-receivers complained that due to inaccessible terrains and lack of road link they were not able to get the relief assistance in time and in sufficient quantity.

Shelter

After the earthquake, many remittance-receiving households (with cemented houses) only needed repairs to their houses. The continued flow of remittances allowed them to repair and reconstruct their houses much more easily than other households. Remittance receiving households were not only less vulnerable to the earthquake due to their prior financial capacity to build higher quality housing but have also been better able to recover from what damage the earthquake did to their houses because of the continued flow of remittances.

Health

It was reported that 80 per cent of remittance receivers remained unhurt. However, mortality was slightly higher among remittance receivers compared to non-receivers. Some respondents attributed this phenomenon to cemented houses and described that injuries resulting from the collapsing roofs and walls were more fatal, compared to those caused in damaged mud houses.

A little more than half of remittance receiving households reported that they had to pay for follow up treatment for their injuries in private healthcare system, as relief and rescue aid was confined to surgical operations. In most of the cases, patients had to take care of post-operative treatments. The expenditure on treatment after earthquake ranged from 5000-50000 rupees. Remittances were reported as major source of meeting these healthcare costs. Most of the non receivers had to rely on public healthcare system but they were not satisfied with the quality of the treatment.

Education

There was no major difference between enrolment rate of school going children among remittance receivers and non-receivers. Almost similar percentages of receivers as well as non-receivers are sending their children to school in post-earthquake scenario. Very few are not able to send their children to school but this is mainly due to the reason that schools are completely destroyed in their village and they don't have any alternative educational institute available in their area.

Access to remittances after earthquake

According to respondents, damaged communication systems were the major cause (reported by 71 per cent) affecting their access to remittances. The other factors that affected their access were closure/destruction of remittance delivery outlets (21 per cent), long waiting time (19 per cent), lack of identification documents (7 per cent), and loss of contact with the senders (4 per cent).

Majority (76 per cent) of respondents reported that they did not receive any assistance from anyone to be able to contact their remittance senders abroad immediately after the earthquake. A vast majority (91 per cent of respondents) informed that there was no assistance to access banks after the earthquake. Only 7 per cent respondents reported that financial institutions provided emergency or mobile services in refugee camps to access remittances. Respondents were of the opinion that remittance receivers' sufferings would have decreased, had there been some external assistance for ensuring smooth flow of remittances after the earthquake.

Spillover affects of remittances

Almost one-third of the remittance receivers used to share their remittances (in kind or in cash) with non-receiving family members before the earthquake. But sharing of remittances with non-receivers decreased significantly after the earthquake because receivers had to take care of their own needs first. However, flow of remittances indirectly helped local economy. Local markets that collapsed after the earthquake would have taken much longer to reopen without the remittances. Similarly construction workers are finding jobs in quake hit areas because remittance receivers are getting their houses repaired. Thus spillover affects of remittances are strengthening local economy.

Conclusion

The research found out that in the aftermath of the earthquake, most people were in need of immediate humanitarian assistance, regardless of whether they formerly received remittances or not. But households whose livelihoods included remittances appeared somewhat less vulnerable to the effects of the earthquake and had considerably more livelihood resilience once remittance flows were re-established.

Also, remittance-receiving households have been better able to re-establish their livelihoods and to begin repairing and rebuilding lost assets such as housing. But the return of some migrants and the subsequent loss of income as well as the inability to re-emigrate may mean that some former remittance-receiving households will be struggling along with non-receiving households to establish secure livelihoods in the local economy.

Dr Abid Suleri is assistant executive director of SDPI. Kevin Savage is a researcher at ODI, UK. They can be respectively contacted at suleri@sdpi.org and k.savage@odi.org.uk

A UN report released on Wednesday, citing evidence of severe torture, said Iraq has become deadlier than ever. The report said 6,599 Iraqis had died violently in the last two months, 700 more than in the previous two months, making the period the deadliest yet. Many were tortured and killed by death squads, the report said.

"Bodies found at the Medico-legal Institute often bear signs of severe torture including acid-induced injuries and burns caused by chemical substances, missing skin, broken bones, missing eyes, missing teeth and wounds caused by power drills or nails," the report said.

July was deadlier than August, but violence has already escalated again in September, with a surge in death squad killings in Baghdad and a relentless series of bomb attacks in the north and west, the Reuters news agency reported.

Italy announced on Wednesday that it was withdrawing its 1,600 troops from the southern Dhi Qar province. The Italians, under British command in the southern sector, will all be home within eight weeks, British military spokesman Major Charlie Burbridge said.

The withdrawal of the Italian forces means that the United States and Britain -- the two allies that invaded Iraq in March 2003 in violation of every canon of international law and in flagrant defiance of world public opinion -- are now the only big, rich countries with large occupying forces there.

Even Britain has scaled down its military presence in Iraq, reducing the number of troops it has there from 25,000 in 2003 to about one-third that number today. British troops are now largely confined to the southern city of Basra, Iraq's second largest city.

But while other countries that made up the US-led so-called 'Coalition of the Willing' (or COW for short) are pulling troops out, the United States has sent thousands more to Iraq this year in an effort to stem a rapidly escalating spiral of violence.

The US now has about 150,000 troops in Iraq. The US military commander in the Middle East said this week that there will be no cutbacks before mid-2007 at the earliest.

US President George W Bush's repeated assertions that the situation in Iraq is 'improving' flies in the face of the reality on the ground. Even US commanders in Iraq predict that the violence will get worse in the coming weeks.

More than 100,000 innocent Iraqi civilians have been killed in US military strikes -- a horrific death toll that Bush administration officials continue to callously describe as 'collateral damage'.

Iraq is descending ever-deeper into chaos, putting paid to Washington's ill-planned efforts to rebuild a country whose infrastructure was destroyed by America itself.

Iraq's infrastructure is in ruins. Its educational system, once the best in any Arab country, is in shambles. Terror stalks the streets of Iraqi cities and towns, and sectarian killings have become the order of the day. Oil production has plummeted, and a once-prosperous country is in danger of becoming a basket case.

Yet Bush continues to insist that the Iraqi people are now 'free' -- an astonishing contention given the fact that the country is occupied by more than 160,000 foreign troops, the vast majority of them Americans.

Some 2,800 US troops have been killed in the fighting in Iraq, and more than 15,000 other have been wounded, many of them with crippling injuries.

Back in August 2003, General John Abizaid, who a month earlier had succeeded retiring General Tommy Franks as head of the US Central Command and commander of American forces in Iraq, had labeled the conflict in Iraq a guerilla war and had said that replacement troops to be sent there should expect year-long deployments of the type used during the Vietnam War.

Abizaid went further than US officials had before in describing the daily attacks on American troops, and the mounting death toll, as the result of 'guerilla tactics' that were growing in regional coordination, skill and the ability to exploit weak spots in US activities.

Abizaid had also pledged to start bringing home the longest-serving troops in Iraq by September 2003 but had said that the replacements for the US 3rd Infantry Division should plan to be in Iraq for up to a year -- a rotation common in the Vietnam era but rarely used now.

This timetable for withdrawing the longest-serving US troops may have had more than a little to do with Washington's touting in August 2003 of a new UN Security Council resolution asking for other countries to bolster its occupying forces in Iraq.

Then-US Secretary of State Colin Powell had said in August 2003 that, in addition to 165,000 American troops, some "19,000 troops from 30 countries" were already in Iraq at that time. But he had conveniently glossed over the question of why other countries should put their troops in harm's way by sending them to Iraq.

In the event, no other countries did that. What's more, most of the '30 countries' that had troops in Iraq at the time subsequently withdrew their contingents, leaving only five or six countries with troops in Iraq. Now, with this week's announcement by Italy that it, too, was withdrawing its troops, 95 per cent of the foreign occupation forces in Iraq will be American (150,000) and British (about 8,000).

The combination of the main points enunciated by General Abizaid in August 2003 -- the notion of US troops digging-in in Iraq for extended stays to fight against a shadowy yet sophisticated foe -- had signaled the growing seriousness with which top American military commanders were being compelled to view the situation in Iraq and the growing chaos there.

In the three years since then, the situation in Iraq has become much worse, with the country descending ever-deeper into the quagmire of what looks increasingly like civil war.

"Mission accomplished" a cocky Bush had said on May 1, 2003 in a televised speech from the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

What he has failed to explain in the years since then is that, if the US mission (whatever it might have been) had indeed been 'accomplished' by May, 2003, why has he kept US troops in Iraq. What are they still doing there? Spreading 'freedom' and 'democracy' by killing more Iraqis or what?

Bush's failed Iraq policy has sent his approval rating amongst an increasingly disillusioned American public plummeting. A Pew Research Centre poll released last week showed his approval rating at 37 per cent, the lowest of all polls conducted within the last month.

Syed Qamar Abbas belongs to that class of politicians which earned fame because of its political struggle against military dictatorship and for the restoration of democracy in Pakistan. He began his political career as a student leader when in 1971 he was elected president of the National Students Federation, a wing of the Mazdoor Kisan Party. But even before that he had met the founding chairman of Pakistan People's Party, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in Lahore during the party's first convention. In 1972, on Bhutto's advice, he formed People's Students' Federation in the Frontier and became its first secretary- general.

Qamar Abbas has obtained a degree in law besides doing masters in Urdu from the University of Peshawar.

After completing his education, he held various provincial offices of Pakistan People's Party. As the head of Bhutto Release Committee, he spent almost five years behind the bars during General Zaiul Haq's regime. He was tortured in military cells. During his detention, once the BBC ran the report of his death which sparked widespread protest at the provincial level. He has been provincial minister twice.

Being the scion of an intellectual family, Qamar Abbas has authored three books. He is working on two more books these. His father Farigh Bukhari is one of the most decorated literary personality of the country.

These days, Qamar Abbas is the senior vice-president of PPP in the Frontier. He is also the convener of the party's study circle in the province.

The News on Sunday talk to him on the prevailing political situation of the country at length. The excerpts follow:

The News on Sunday: You have been an active member of PPP but for the last couple of years, you have been virtually out of the scene. Is there any particular reason for that?

Syed Qamar Abbas: Being a political worker, I take part in party affairs and try my level best to contribute anything I can for its betterment. But this is true that, like many ideological political workers, I am not as active as I was in the past owing to many reasons. Genuine political workers in Pakistan have lost hope of any change that a political culture can bring in the lives of the people. Frequent interference by military dictators has completely destroyed our political system. This has created distrust among political workers. Today, military junta and intelligence agencies have made the political system corrupt to such an extent that a genuine worker can hardly survive in it. The money largely governs ours political system. (In this system) purchase of votes and parliamentarians have become the order of the day. The concept of politics has been changed. Now someone joins politics just to be in power at any cost. It has become imperative to be part of drug mafia and a puppet of the establishment to survive in the prevailing political culture. I agree to the contention that a political party has to be in power for its survival but its objective is always to bring visible change in the lives of common people. It should not exploit people for vested interests. The establishment has made the Army as an integral part of the country's political system and now it is in the establishment's interest to keep it in power to secure its interests.

TNS: Does that mean you have lost all hope? Is your party too under the influence of prevailing political culture which according to you is heavily dominated by money?

SQA: Yes! You can say that I have lost hope in the existing political system. (You can also say that) our party like others have also fallen prey to the current situation. (It's a situation in which) people want to be in power just to protect their own interests, not the public's. Political parties are compelled to allot tickets to wealthy people so that they can spend money and win seats for their parties. In this scenario, penniless but genuine and ideological workers cannot enter into the assemblies. That is the reason why the political system paves ways for the rich to reach the power corridors. But for them, democracy means just to protect vested interests. This is why they cannot deliver while genuine workers, who can bring a visible change, cannot compete with them.

TNS: What steps can prove helpful to rectify the situation?

SQA: Entry of the downtrodden into power corridors is essential for bringing a real change in the people's lives and the political parties have to play a central role in this. The political parties have to be bound by law that they allot party tickets to intellectuals, labour leaders, jurists, writers, traders and to other segments of the society so that they can think and legislate for the community that they represent. The parties will have to bring change in their approach of moving around the same few people, instead of promoting genuine workers. Moreover, by law, a ban should be placed on changing political loyalties or parties. Again the political parties have to play a pivotal role in rooting out malpractices like this. The parties should have the right to expel the members involved in floor-crossing. But what is happening (now is unfortunate). If one party fire a member, at the same time another party welcomes that same person who has changed loyalties only for money. The parties should demonstrate the courage not to accept anyone involved in floor-crossing. This will help introduce true and genuine leadership in the country.

TNS: You say parties should get rid of influential people and should give preference to workers. But why is your party dominated by influential people like Benazir Bhutto? Why can't your party take any solid action against its legislators who have reportedly sold their votes?

SQA: In our country many political parties have big names like Wali Khan and Mufti Mehmood as their leaders and it is obvious that these parties cannot survive without these names. It has become indispensable for the parties to give these personalities a leading role because they enjoy respect among the workers and the people. (Having said that), Benazir's case is different. The party has given her the leading role because the party believes it's appropriate for the progress of the party. Also, the decision was made totally democratically.

As far as floor-crossing or selling of votes by our parliamentarians is concerned, we have expelled two female legislators. But parties like ours are unable to counter horse-trading owing to flaws in the country's laws. As I mentioned earlier, the menace of floor-crossing cannot be tackled until and unless the establishment's role in the politics is eliminated.

TNS: What role you do believe PPP can play in the current political situation?

SQA: PPP is the single largest party in the country. It has the capability to wriggle the country out of existing internal and external crises as well as keeping it united. The policies of military rulers and their blue-eyed politicians are a potent threats to the very existence of the country. Military rulers are responsible for all the turmoil whether it is separation of East Pakistan or the loss of a big territory in Siachen to the Indians. Owing to their irrational policies, nationalist forces are now taking roots in Balochistan in the backdrop of Akbar Bugti's killing. These seeds of nationalism may turn into a full-fledge separation movement in volatile parts of the country, (if nothing is done to address their concerns). Same is the case in the tribal belt where the rulers' policies have shaken the tribesmen's confidence. It's not a good omen for the solidarity of the country. The government is sponsoring Talibanisation in restive tribal areas where no political party except the religious ones are allowed to carry out their activities. Ban on the activities of mainstream political parties has pushed the liberal and progressive forces to the wall in the tribal areas. Law and order situation in the rest of the country is also deteriorating. People's lives and properties have become insecure.

The prevailing situations, I believe, has increased the importance of PPP manifold because it is only political party that can unite the country because of its political ideology which discourages discriminations in all its forms.

TNS: There are reports in press about a possible patch-up between PPP and the regime of President Pervez Musharraf. Do you think that your party will strike a deal with the government?

SQA: I think, in present circumstances, the Army is no more an institution. It has rather taken the shape of a political party. PPP is against the military's role in politics. That is why, the two largest mainstream political parties have signed the Chartered of Democracy (CoD). It is the duty of all democratic parties to come forward and join hands against the establishment. PPP's anti-establishment role is very clear because its history is full of unforgettable sacrifices for the restoration of true democracy in the country. This is the only political party that has rendered sacrifices which no other party can claim. Dozens of its workers were hanged, more than 12,000 were tortured and some half a million were jailed just for the cause of democracy.

Let me also explain that the word 'deal' is the invention of the establishment. Indeed it should be termed as an agreement between the establishment and political parties which offers social liberties and basic human rights.

TNS: Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has emerged as a new political power, at least in the Frontier. The nationalists are also gearing up with a renewed vigour for the next general elections. Where do you place PPP in the future political spectrum of the province?

SQA: Before discussing PPP's future, I would like to comment on MMA's role in the current political situation. It has been following a policy of hypocrisy. Before the general elections, the leaders of religious parties were the main critics of foreign aid, the World Bank and the non-government organisations but now they are staunch supporters of foreign donor agencies. Similarly, in the public rallies, they deliver fierce anti-America speeches but at the same time they keep mum over operations and agreements taking place in the tribal areas. MMA, being an amalgamation of six religious parties, was created by the junta. That is why it is the main beneficiary of the establishment. Its double face has been exposed to the public. Even then the invisible support by the establishment has made MMA an influential political power at NWFP level. I believe religious parties will give tough time to progressive parties, like ours, in the years to come.

If we look at the electoral history of the Frontier province, no single party has been able to form government on its own. The popular mandate has always remained split. I foresee a similar picture in the next elections. Maybe religious parties will not emerge as the single largest political entity in the province but they will have a visible presence in the next assembly.

As far as PPP's position is concerned, I believe it is still the single largest political party at the national level. At the provincial level, it may not be able to form government but it has the capacity to put up candidates in every provincial constituency.

Bangkok, the city of smile, looked rather quite and grave. There were hushed talks about a coup. The TV suddenly started playing national anthem and the video clippings of the King. All the international TV channels disappeared. Military vehicles were moving around the city. On September 19, at around 10 in the night, even the taxi drivers confirmed that there was a coup and advised passengers to rush back home, fearing there could be fighting among different factions of the army.

That day Thailand suffered its 18th military coup since the first one happened in 1932. It seems the coup was rather smooth and there was hardly any inconvenience to the people of Bangkok.

The current military coup is significant because it happened after 15 years of experiments with democratic governance. It has been done in the name of 'restoring' democracy by capturing power from the 'democratically' elected caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Though there are voice of protest from the civil society and democracy activists, the people of Bangkok seem to be happy with the departure of Thaksin, the key protagonist at the centre stage of Thai politics. There is a mix of quite celebration and untold anxiety among the people. The strange sense of silence in Bangkok symbolises the ambivalence of democratic process in Thailand. The country is once again torn between the military power on the one hand democratic aspirations on the other. Despite the pious proclamations by the army that the elections will be held as early possible, Thailand's experiment with democracy is entering a rather uncertain and turbulent phase -- again.

The coup is also significant in the sense that General Sonthi Boonyaratklin, the leader of the Administrative Reform Council that led the coup, is the first Muslim Chief of the Army in a predominantly Buddhist country. Though the constitution and the parliament have been terminated, it is noteworthy that the Privy Council -- headed by General Prem Tinsulanonda, who is an advisor to the King and was in power from 1980 to 88 -- is playing a significant role in the new political set-up.

In many ways the politics and society of Thailand has been shaped by the stable and highly revered monarchy, military and religion. Even when there were spells of democratic government, these political forces shaped the discourse and sustained their power base. In fact, even after 15 years of democratic experiments, most of the TV channels and radio networks are still controlled by the military.

Thailand with a population 64.1 million had emerged as one of the most significant countries in South East Asia during the rest years, with a relatively stable democracy and a stunning economic record, particularly its recovery after the financial crisis in 1997. The main protagonist in Thai politics during this phase was Thaksin Shinawatra. He, however, symbolised both the strengths and limitations of the Thailand's experiment with Democracy.

He is a third generation Chinese-Thai, born in 1949, in the northern city of Chiangmai. Starting his career as a police officer in 1970, he went on do a PhD in Criminology in the United Sates on a government scholarship in 1973. On his return , he became one of the most successful businessmen and became a billionaire within the span of just 15 years.

It was Thaksin who caused the corporatisation of Thai politics. He started his first computer dealership in 1987 and went on to build Shin Corporation, one of the biggest business conglomerates in South East Asia. He founded Thai Rak Thai( Thai loves Thai) almost like a corporate venture, with its headquarters in one of the big towers owned by Shin Corporation.

Like an intelligent investor, he spent money to have many rich Thai corporate magnets as shareholders in his new political venture. Thai Rak Thai was neither right nor left; it was more of a corporate venture. It used communication technology, mobilisation tactics and media and played on the insecurity creating the financial crisis of 1997 to sell dreams of nationalism as well as economic recovery. Within three years of the party's launching, Thaksin became prime minister in 2001.

During one of his interviews, Thaksin is reported to have said, "Democracy is a just a means to get power". In many ways, this exposed his rhetorical commitment to democracy and his real efforts to run the country like the chief executive officer of a business corporation. In the process, Thaksin ended up subverting every institution and the very process of democracy. He not only corporatised his party, he attempted to corporatise the state as well. He used populist poverty eradication programmes and pro-poor rhetoric but on the other hand increasingly favoured big corporations, including his own, and went on to privatise everything. He did not like criticism and fancied himself following in the footsteps of Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia. If he was not doing that, then was developing Thailand in the form of a 'controlled democracy' like Singapore. In the process, he ended up as a populist authoritarian corporate leader, using democracy as a means and as a rhetorical slogan to legitimise his power. That is why he failed to provide political solution for the political unrest in Southern Thailand, dominated by the Muslim population. More than 1000 people were killed within months there. Apart from that, he has been accused of rampant violation of human rights, especially because of extra judicial killing of an estimated 2500 suspected drug peddlers.

Through clever political management as well as media campaign, Thaksin won his second term with a landslide majority ( 377 out of 500 parliament seats) in the election held in February 2005. But during his second term he became increasingly unpopular among the civil society, political class as well as the middle class in Bangkok. The perceived subversion of law and institutions to sell off his family stake in Shin Corporation for a whopping $1.9 billion, without paying any tax, to a powerful investor in Singapore, created huge political backlash. This resulted in unprecedented political mobilisation against Thaksin. As a part of his 'put up or shut up' policy, he dissolved the parliament and declared snap poll in April 2006. Though the main opposition Democratic Party and others boycotted the election, Thaksin won 57 per cent of the vote. But the constitutional court declared the election null and void and asked the government to conduct fresh polls. Thaksin decided to continue as the caretaker prime minister, in spite of widespread protest against him.

Seen in this light, Thaksin is a hero, villain and victim of the new democratic experiment in Thailand. He used democracy as means, with his corporate investments and wealth, to capture power for its own sake. He ended up as a victim of his own unprecedented success because he became the only elected prime minister to have successfully completed a term in power. Not only that, he was the first one to have been re-elected. He also became a victim of his own sense of invincibility and democratic rhetoric and pretensions. This explains why there are not many people shedding tears for Thaksin and his brand of democracy.

In the political landscape of Thailand, the unifying and stabilising force is the highly revered King Bhumbol Adulyadej. He is the head of the state for the last 60 years, the longest serving monarch in the world. He commands a unique sense of moral authority. In spite of a number of political coups, the King's gentle manner and rare interventions have helped to stabilise the polity and political process in Thailand. Evening after the present political impasse, the ordinary people of Thailand hope that King will help restore the process of democracy, in spite of the coup. But it is yet to be seen if the promised restoration of democracy will help create a genuine democratic political process and democratic space in the 'land of the free'.