Editorial
Punjab, it seems, has had it rougher than the rest of the provinces. Twelve to fourteen hours of load shedding in big urban centres till about a week ago, all through the summers, even in Ramzan. This despite the fact that Punjab boasts of the least line losses [read theft] and best recovery patterns in the Discos based in the province.
A ripe scenario for some political implications; a few weeks back, we saw them in the power riots across the province, some deadlier than we thought. The chief minister, who has made a permanent office in a tent to deal with the power crisis, was said to have given his tacit approval to these protests.

overview
More Power to Punjab
Just how fair is Punjab’s grouse that the federal government is responsible for the province’s inequitable share in power that has adversely affected its economy?
By Aoun Sahi
Of late, Chief Minister Punjab, Mian Shahbaz Sharif has been up in arms over what he terms as an “unfair” treatment of the province at the hands of the federal government, especially with regard to power outages. 
This summer, he set up a tent office in the Minar-e-Pakistan ground, with no AC blowers, to register Punjab’s protest. He even led public demonstrations against extensive hours of load shedding and has been vociferously talking about the “Zardari gang” (his own words) responsible for the situation.

Victim or not
Is this indeed President Zardari’s revenge on the voters of Punjab for not choosing his party?
By Farah Zia
Politics does wonderful things; it also does awful things. Sometimes it trivialises serious matters in its own name, bringing conspiracy theories into issues that need structural solutions. This is what the politicians have done with that crucial commodity called energy, especially electricity. Revolutionary statements uttered in a tent-office, sometimes instigating power riots, do not substitute for policy. 
Sadly, this misplaced political activism on the part of one provincial government is pitched against an unfathomable inertia of the federal government.

policy
Success potential
In the wake of the 18th Amendment, Punjab hopes to tap its power sources with the help of 
foreign investors and has already 
created a full-fledged energy department
By Waqar Gillani
Pakistan is faced with a substantial shortage in the power sector for the past two decades. There has been no significant addition to power generation in all these years despite the fact that the federation, through Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), was fully empowered to take initiatives and the provinces were allowed to execute power projects only up to 50 Megawatts.
However, following the 18th Amendment in the Constitution of Pakistan, the provinces are, apparently, now vested with full authority to develop power projects of any capacity through public or private sectors and establish the required regulatory framework.

“We could do well with importing electricity 
through transmission”
— Suleman Najib Khan, engineer, energy expert 
and business entrepreneur 
The News on Sunday: What are some of the domestic reasons of the acute power shortage which has become the bone of contention among the provinces? 
Suleman Najib Khan: When there is poverty and misgovernance, this is bound to happen. More misgovernance means more challenges, more mismanagement, more difficulties and more threats. Today, we have the highest line losses to just cover the theft. We have around 29 per cent average line losses which is perhaps the highest in the world. Technical line losses must not be more than six per cent. We lose much power in this way which further increases the poverty circle and adds to the consumers’ frustration and mistrust. If we do not use water, whatever the reason, we are in for very serious governance problems. Water is our only natural endowment. And, for oil we have to spend money which raises inflation and affects the economy badly. Unless new technology comes in, we shall continue to suffer. 

“The solution is deregulation,
privatisation and hydel power”
— Dr Salman Shah, economist and 
former finance minister
The News on Sunday: What, in your view, are the reasons for the country’s energy crisis? Why have the governments failed to add to power generation? 
Dr Salman Shah: The crisis has deepened over the last four years. Basically, Pakistan does not lack power generation capacity as the installed capacity in the country exceeds 23,000MW. The average generation at any given time does not exceed 14,000MW. The remaining capacity is unutilised due to a number of reasons: a)1,500 to 2,000MW is unutilised due to the non-availability of imported fuel based on oil. This is due to the circular debt problem; b)poor maintenance and lack of spare parts and down time contributes another 1,500MW; c)low level of water in the dams reduces hydel power availability by 2,000MW in the lean period; and, d)insufficient plants are too expensive to run. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editorial

Punjab, it seems, has had it rougher than the rest of the provinces. Twelve to fourteen hours of load shedding in big urban centres till about a week ago, all through the summers, even in Ramzan. This despite the fact that Punjab boasts of the least line losses [read theft] and best recovery patterns in the Discos based in the province.

A ripe scenario for some political implications; a few weeks back, we saw them in the power riots across the province, some deadlier than we thought. The chief minister, who has made a permanent office in a tent to deal with the power crisis, was said to have given his tacit approval to these protests.

The investigation into this discrimination against one province was easier said than done. What is the principle for power or shortage distribution and whether it is equitable? What exactly did the Eighteenth Amendment do to the subject of electricity and what is the situation in provinces regarding generating their own electricity? What is the rationale behind a national grid and what has the Punjab done so far in terms of generation and conservation? Finally, is the power crisis a manifestation of the crisis of the Pakistani state itself?

These were the initial questions that we sought to address in this Special Report, knowing little what lay in store — an elaborate structure of companies neatly divide between generation (Wapda and Gencos broadly), transmission (NTDC) and distribution (Pepco and Discos), overseen by a regulator at the centre (Nepra). Is this structure part of the problem or the solution? Judging by the extent of crisis, the solution is nowhere near. Sadly, no one seems to know it either.

One phrase that the stakeholders keep repeating is “lack of political will”. One wonders if there is a clearly laid down policy framework that is not being implemented because of this lack of political will. The noises that are often heard, we gather, are mere politicking before the election.

Treating energy as a structural issue that needs long term serious thinking is beyond the scope of imagination of our political leadership. The legal and institutional frameworks are there but what is lacking is a vision; thinking about the needs of this country in a decade, in half a century and even a century from now.

Back to where we began — the Punjab. The sense of victimhood claimed in such loud terms is not backed by any action on ground so far in terms of generating electricity or conserving it. Political sloganeering will generate a political response come election time. The federal government would most likely pump in some money to ease things for their voters. In the final analysis, all power to politics; the country can take care of itself.

 

 

 

 

overview
More Power to Punjab
Just how fair is Punjab’s grouse that the federal government is responsible for the province’s inequitable share in power that has adversely affected its economy?
By Aoun Sahi

Of late, Chief Minister Punjab, Mian Shahbaz Sharif has been up in arms over what he terms as an “unfair” treatment of the province at the hands of the federal government, especially with regard to power outages.

This summer, he set up a tent office in the Minar-e-Pakistan ground, with no AC blowers, to register Punjab’s protest. He even led public demonstrations against extensive hours of load shedding and has been vociferously talking about the “Zardari gang” (his own words) responsible for the situation.

On August 23, in a press meet, the CM again expressed his grouse over the fact that the industries in Karachi are able to run six days a week whereas in Punjab the long hours of power outages have reduced the actual number of workdays to merely three or four. “This is a huge injustice to the people of Punjab,” he roared. “This attitude of the federal government shall not be tolerated.”

PML-N central leader and MNA Pervaiz Malik tells TNS that massive load shedding in Punjab has badly damaged the economy of the province. “The PPP government is clearly targeting the people of Punjab for giving mandate to the PML-N. A large number of industrial units have closed down in Punjab, rendering thousands jobless while hundreds of industrial units are on the verge of closure,” he says.

Unfortunately, he says, load shedding in Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Lahore is 10 to 18 hours while in other areas of the country it is half of that. “Punjab contributes nearly two-third to the country’s GDP, contributes 80 per cent to the total electricity bills and in return gets nearly 60 per cent of power generated in the country. It was decided at the Energy Conference to have equal amount of load shedding throughout the country. The decision obviously has not been implemented,” he says.

Officials at Pepco and Wapda confirm recovery of bills is higher in Punjab yet it faces more load shedding than other parts of the country. “We don’t manage power outages on the provincial level. It is handled by the distribution companies. Fortunately or not, five out of ten power distribution companies fall in the Punjab province while only one in KPK, Balochistan and Fata and three, including KESC, in Sindh. Punjab consumes most electricity as it has maximum number of consumers,” Ejaz Rafiq Qureshi, consultant to Pepco tells TNS.

According to data compiled by Pepco, Punjab consumed 68 per cent of total electricity generated in the country in 2011. Lesco consumes 21 per cent of total electricity, Fesco 16 per cent, Mepco 16 per cent, Gepco 10 per cent, Iesco 2 per cent, Balochistan 6 per cent, Sindh 12 per cent sans KESC, and KPK 16 per cent. “Pepco follows a simple power distribution formula.  Earlier, we used to distribute shortfall among the distribution companies according to their share in power consumption, but after the Punjab government’s criticism, we modified the formula. Now we distribute the generated electricity among companies according to their share,” says Qureshi, adding Pepco does give some direction to distribution companies regarding load management.

“We recommend the companies to not cut power to industries for more than six hours a day. We also direct them to cut more power in rural areas than urban. So, the companies like Gesco and Pesco, where we have more small industries, face fewer hours of load shedding. Half of Lesco’s load is consumed by the Lahore city alone, therefore it faces comparatively more load shedding,” he says.

Another objection raised by Punjab is that it records the least electricity theft when it boasts of the highest electricity bill recovery ratio.

Presently, the private and public sector owes bills worth Rs400 billion. “It also includes bills of current month which usually are around Rs100 billion so even if we minus this figure Rs300 billion are still to be paid to the distribution companies by the public and private consumers. We have to pay almost the same amount to PSO which means there is no money at all to invest in new generation projects and infrastructure restructure or expansion. It is true that recovery from Punjab is the best while Sindh province, without KESC, is a defaulter of Rs50 billion, Fata with Rs25 billion is second among the provinces and territories,” says a senior official of ministry of water and power.

Fesco recovers 99.8 per cent in bills, Gepco 98.8 per cent, Lesco 98 per cent, Iesco 98 per cent, Mepco 95 per cent, Sepco 51 per cent, Hepco 59.1 per cent, KESC (which is a private entity) 85.6 per cent, Pesco 78.4 per cent and Qesco 41 per cent.

Pepco records 35 per cent in line losses, Hepco 34 per cent, Qepco 18 per cent, Lesco 13 per cent, Gepco 12 per cent, Fesco 11 per cent and Iesco 10 per cent. So,  it demands that power should be distributed according to bill recovery ratio.

The officials at the ministry of water and power and Wapda confirm the figures but think it is impossible to match electricity distribution with bills recovery. They say that the 18th Amendment clearly mentions that the first right on the resources will rest with the province. Accordingly, Balochistan and Sindh have the first right on electricity produced by natural gas and KPK and Kashmir on hydel power. But they still distribute electricity according to the share in consumption.

Two months ago, too ensure electricity is divided among companies according to the formula, the minister for water and power appointed two representatives from every distributing company in the central electricity distribution controlling center at National Power Construction Company (NPCC) that calculates daily generation and distribution of electricity — “to make this process more transparent. We have also invited the Punjab government to send one of its representatives to oversee the process,” a senior official at the ministry of water and power tells TNS.

He adds that during the last 10 years more than 67,000 villages have been electrified in Pakistan —“Even though we have not expanded the generation capacity and infrastructure at the same speed”.

In Bangladesh, an overwhelming majority of villages is lit with solar power. It generates only 4500 mega watts of electricity while in Pakistan 1300-1500 mega watts of electricity is produced and still the country faces outages. We haven’t expanded our consumer base according to a plan,” he says.

A member of board of governors of Lesco tells TNS that electricity and load shedding formula is simple: “We receive a fax every day about total generation of electricity and Lesco’s share. We have also drafted a load shedding policy. But, because Lesco has the maximum number of load shedding exempted feeders, it becomes tough to enforce the load shedding policy. It is also true that in Lahore line losses are around 13 per cent while in Qesco they are around 40 per cent. But when it is translated in money terms, Lesco’s share becomes more than Qesco because it consumes only one-fourth of the power Lesco consumes,” he says.

After the 18th Amendment, the provincial governments have the power to formulate energy policy and can generate electricity. “We have met senior officials of the Punjab government several times, they are least interested in constructing electricity generating projects,” he says.

 

 

 

Victim or not
Is this indeed President Zardari’s revenge on the voters of Punjab for not choosing his party?
By Farah Zia

Politics does wonderful things; it also does awful things. Sometimes it trivialises serious matters in its own name, bringing conspiracy theories into issues that need structural solutions. This is what the politicians have done with that crucial commodity called energy, especially electricity. Revolutionary statements uttered in a tent-office, sometimes instigating power riots, do not substitute for policy.

Sadly, this misplaced political activism on the part of one provincial government is pitched against an unfathomable inertia of the federal government.

Between these two extreme positions, the consumers face not just acute electricity shortages but a distorted version of facts. That Punjab is the worst victim of load shedding in the entire country may not exactly be a distorted fact, it does not help a common man in Punjab to know that there is absolutely no power shortage in Sindh or very little in Karachi or Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. His miseries double when he comes to know that 700MWs of electricity have been snatched from Punjab’s share and handed over to Karachi Electric Supply Company.

Political conclusions are readily drawn. In the drawing rooms of Punjab’s urban centres, even the PPP supporters are forced to admit this is President’s Zardari’s revenge on the voters of this province for not choosing his party. Others think his allies — MQM and ANP — have forced him to keep Karachi and KP least affected.

The situation on ground may be completely different from what these politically-loaded statements imply. On ground, power has remained as overly-centralised as the state itself. And this arrangement, kind of, worked till a point in time, the provinces cries for loyalty notwithstanding.

In its summary, presented to the Council of Common Interests (CCI) in April 2011, on what it thought was a faulty interpretation of Article 157 of the Constitution, the Punjab acknowledged this fact. It stated that the provincial governments “entrusted their functions under Article 157 to Wapda at a time when the supply and demand situation was quite satisfactory. The underlying rationale was that the federal government would be able to meet the entire demand of electricity in the provinces. However, in the current situation when the federal government is not able to fulfill the requirements, the provinces have a legal and constitutional right to withdraw from the said arrangement, or make additional generation arrangements and undertake their functions in terms of Article 157(2) of the Constitution.”

Thereafter Punjab made several assertions in this summary to remove the ambiguities in the said Article “so that the provinces can play their rightful role in generation of electricity”. Other provinces sided with Punjab’s interpretation and so did the CCI.

So Punjab’s position and role in creating the right legal framework in view of the changed circumstances must be applauded. Beyond this, though, there is the institutional framework that needed to be laid and finally of course the nitty gritty — of actual generation and conservation.

So where does Punjab stand vis-a-vis laying down an institutional framework, generation and conservation. As for the former, its record is fairly impressive. It established Punjab Power Development Company Limited (PPDCL) “to implement the ADB-assisted five low-head hydel power projects in public sector and the Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB) to facilitate power sector investments in private sector”. Apart from that, “an independent Energy Department has also been established by government of Punjab in 2011 to plan, oversee and administer the development, growth and regulation of energy sector in Punjab”.

So far, so good. As for generation, that has been a little tricky because that’s a long term proposition. Yes there are plans galore on websites and projects promised in solar, thermal and all spheres. Practically, there’s nothing on ground to show in terms of generation. Besides, politics comes in handy. “Punjab the worst victim of load shedding” sells well as an election slogan. The guns are perpetually pointed towards the federal government which must make dams and provide an equitable share of electricity.

There are many who share Punjab’s sense of victimhood. They say that the line losses other than the technical ones, called administrative losses or theft in common parlance, are the least in the Discos that are Punjab-based. According to rough estimates, these losses are to the tune of 10-13 per cent as opposed to say 35 per cent in KESC or 38 per cent in Pesco or a little less in Qesco. Besides, the recovery rate is much better in Punjab. So why penalise the province by excessive load shedding, they ask.

Actually, they miss the central point — that Punjab consumes 68 per cent of the total electricity generated in the country. So when the line losses incurred in Punjab are calculated in terms of volume, they are still bigger than the smaller Discos in other provinces. Hence the long hours of load shedding.

The same principle holds for conservation. But each time the provinces sit together to devise a conservation plan, Punjab chooses to opt out. The common man does not know that a two days off or an early market closure in Punjab means a lot in terms of conservation. But, instead of this, the newly formed Energy Department has posted some energy conservation guidelines for public offices on its website. One look at these guidelines is enough to gauge how serious the provincial government is about the crisis. The first one reads “Start with basics — turn off lights when not required and use natural day light to the maximum.”

Politics does do awful things. The complaints emerging out of the tent-office at Minar-e-Pakistan are some of those.

 

 

 

 

 

policy
Success potential
In the wake of the 18th Amendment, Punjab hopes to tap its power sources with the help of 
foreign investors and has already 
created a full-fledged energy department
By Waqar Gillani

Pakistan is faced with a substantial shortage in the power sector for the past two decades. There has been no significant addition to power generation in all these years despite the fact that the federation, through Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), was fully empowered to take initiatives and the provinces were allowed to execute power projects only up to 50 Megawatts.

However, following the 18th Amendment in the Constitution of Pakistan, the provinces are, apparently, now vested with full authority to develop power projects of any capacity through public or private sectors and establish the required regulatory framework.

Legally speaking, in the past, Article 157(2) of the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan granted the right to the provinces to establish power stations and construct support infrastructure (grid-systems, transmission and distribution network etc.) and even set the tariff for the electricity that is consumed within the province. Provinces, de facto, gave up this right in the 1950s when Wapda was the central authority.

As a consequence of the 18th Amendment, the Concurrent List was abolished and Electricity was shifted to Part II of the Federal Legislative list. This resulted in some difference of opinion between the federal and the provincial entities about the right and the mandate of the provinces with respect to electricity generation. This difference of opinion on provincial mandate was referred to the Council Of Common Interests, pursuant to Article 157 (3), by Punjab and resolved in the CCI meeting of April 19, 2011, wherein provinces were given complete authority to develop power projects of any capacity themselves or through private sector.

The CCI also decided that any remaining ambiguities may be removed through necessary amendments in NEPRA Act.

As the gap increases between power generation and its demand, the provinces have already moved forward with plans. Almost all four provinces have created their separate departments of energy in the past couple of years.

“It is imperative that the provinces start their own projects but this is neither easy nor an overnight possibility,” says Syed Tanzeem Hussain Naqvi, former Member (Power) Wapda. “There are many technical, financial and policy challenges on the way.”

He says the provinces need resources and investors like China and World Bank, but these things are not practically possible with the help or involvement of the government of Pakistan. Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have a great deal of hydel resources and they should pay attention to engaging the right experts with effective and transparent management and execution policies. “It needs lot of capacity building. We need a line of action on war-footing basis to get some relief in the coming 4-6 years.”

Provinces, apparently, seem excited with their individual plans to generate power by alluring foreign investors. Punjab, taking the lead, has gone as far as creating a full-fledged energy department and creating Punjab Power Management Unit (PPMU) to plan, procure and implement the ADB funded Renewable Energy Projects of Punjab in the public sector. It has also established the Punjab Power Development Board through an Act passed in 2011.

The PPDB is supposed to facilitate the private investors on behalf of the Punjab government in matters related to the setting up of power projects in accordance with the policy of the government; implement the policy of the Punjab government relating to power generation and coordinate with various departments and agencies of the government in the field of power generation; issue No Objection Certificates, permission or license for use of canal or river water or land of the government for power generation; and explore potential sites for hydel and coal power.

At present, there is a demand-supply gap of about 4,000MW which is increasing at a rate of 6 per cent per annum. Punjab with 68 per cent of the consumption of generated power and gas is the worst affected and has to endure both power and gas load shedding with adverse social and economic consequences.

Punjab has so far planned to generate 1393.85MW electricity (in coming years) mainly from hydel sources while a few projects are based on solar, thermal, coal, bio gas, and wind energy systems.

In KP, the Energy and Power Department was established in November 2008. Prior to this department, the Power Sector was part of the Irrigation Department and was called Irrigation and Power Department. KP plans to generate 1322MW electricity costing (as of now) Rs222.096 in coming 10 years. Besides, most of these projects are hydel.

Korean Solar Energy Company and the government of Balochistan signed an agreement a few days ago. The Korean company shall build a 300MW power plant at the cost of $900 million in Quetta. Balochistan is the first province where solar energy electricity plant is built. The province has a shortfall of 550MW at the moment. With the implemention of this project, 300MW electricity would come to the national grid and the shortage will be reduced by 50 per cent. “We are focusing on alternative energy sources in our province,” says Hafiz Abdul Basit, principal secretary to Chief Minister, Balochistan. “The plan is to identify areas and include projects of solar and wind energy too.”

Similarly, in the recent past, a Thar coal-based 1,200MW project of Engro is expected to commence operation by April 2013 in Sindh. SECMC is a joint venture between the government of Sindh and Engro Powergen Limited, established in June 2009.

“Provinces are free to conceive and start their projects but there is a need for an institutional approach to handle these projects,” says Lt Gen (r) Muhammad Zubair, Chief Executive Officer, Neelum-Jhelum Project, commenting on the situation and the provinces’ challenge of generating electricity after the 18th Amendment.

“Wapda took years to acquire maturity in handling mega projects. It has that potential now,” he adds. “But in provinces we hardly see any capacity or capability to conceive, develop or execute mega power projects. There may be some capacity in Punjab but it’s nothing close to Wapda’s which, supposedly, should be dissolved after the 18th Amendment.”

Challenges are high, he says. “We need to develop a national approach to meet this crisis. Besides, at the moment, there is a need to give the provinces a strict deadline for their ongoing projects. Till they achieve their target, we should ask Wapda to execute mega projects in a transparent way in order to avoid conflict among the federating units.

“Until the provinces acquire technical potential, nothing positive will come about.”

Zubair says his project which is worth Rs 274.9 billion will add 969MW power in the system in the near future. “We need a strong political will and a transparent execution to counter all negative propaganda among the provinces.”

vaqargillani@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

“We could do well with importing electricity 
through transmission”
— Suleman Najib Khan, engineer, energy expert 
and business entrepreneur

The News on Sunday: What are some of the domestic reasons of the acute power shortage which has become the bone of contention among the provinces?

Suleman Najib Khan: When there is poverty and misgovernance, this is bound to happen. More misgovernance means more challenges, more mismanagement, more difficulties and more threats. Today, we have the highest line losses to just cover the theft. We have around 29 per cent average line losses which is perhaps the highest in the world. Technical line losses must not be more than six per cent. We lose much power in this way which further increases the poverty circle and adds to the consumers’ frustration and mistrust. If we do not use water, whatever the reason, we are in for very serious governance problems. Water is our only natural endowment. And, for oil we have to spend money which raises inflation and affects the economy badly. Unless new technology comes in, we shall continue to suffer.

TNS: How do you see the grievances of the Punjab province in terms of getting its share of electricity and load shedding?

SNK: I have to say this is unjustified. This is also mainly because of water distribution system. Only one man from Sindh is controlling the whole water system. The entire Indus River System Authority (IRSA) and Indus Water Commission strings are being pulled from Sindh that does not allow its canals to be operated.

Punjab cannot get its share of water. Sindh wants to keep Mangla only for Punjab which is inadequate for the province. Sindh has the upper hand today.

Also, Punjab, through Wapda, is being forced to give 700MW to Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (KESC), which is absolutely unfair. KESC is a private entity. There is ten times more load shedding in Punjab compared to Sindh.

Moreover, there are hydropower sites in Punjab, but Punjab is not allowed to develop them because of the water distribution system controlled by Sindh. Even Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is not allowed to build dams. Punjab is getting much less share of water. Also, naturally, when the population is huge and the demand is big, Punjab will have to face more load shedding. Punjab is getting per capita electricity less than it deserves.

TNS: Do you think the permission to generate electricity after 18th Amendment shall provide relief to the provinces in the future?

SNK: This is an important issue, but the provinces may not be able to produce electricity in high volumes. If you look closely into the 18th Amendment, you will come to know that this is still a federal subject. Unless we build large dams we have no hope. Let us be honest about it. Punjab’s is the worst case.

If we are not going to generate 30,000MW in the coming years, we will fail to meet the future needs. We were told that we should achieve the 100,000MW target by 2030, but it seems there is no way we can do that. We don’t have a resource base. Wapda has been destroyed as a unitary group; it has no money or sources to raise the money in the international financial market. Besides, Wapda cannot execute any large project on its own, even though it is capable of it. Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are also beginning to see the reality. They know that oil is unaffordable and that we are destroying our gas sources. They can think of hydro projects but for that water should be a federal subject and if it is provincial it should be in public sector. Water cannot be privatised.

TNS: If you were to suggest any long-term or short-term solutions to keep the federating units intact while coping with this energy crisis, what would you say?

SNK: Unfortunately, there can be no short-term solution. It’s a huge infrastructural issue that cannot be resolved in a couple of years. The only thing we can do is have an equitable electricity distribution and load shedding. There is no other solution.

Even the import of electricity from neighbours is not possible in the next two or three years. However, we could do well with importing electricity through transmission system instead of importing oil or using gas. And, we must also build our large multi-purpose dams. If we do not go for that, the federation will collapse under poverty and stress. If we are not able to generate low cost power for our federating units, the energy crisis will destroy the country. It is such a vital issue.

My fear is that if we fail to resolve the energy crisis in the next, say, four to five years, the federation will cease to exist. The federating units will break away. Industry has started shifting already. It will go to India, Bangladesh and maybe Afghanistan. There will be brain drain and more poverty as youth starts to leave the country. There will also be lot of crime.

— Waqar Gillani

 

“The solution is deregulation, 
privatisation and hydel power”
— Dr Salman Shah, economist and 
former finance minister

The News on Sunday: What, in your view, are the reasons for the country’s energy crisis? Why have the governments failed to add to power generation?

Dr Salman Shah: The crisis has deepened over the last four years. Basically, Pakistan does not lack power generation capacity as the installed capacity in the country exceeds 23,000MW. The average generation at any given time does not exceed 14,000MW. The remaining capacity is unutilised due to a number of reasons: a)1,500 to 2,000MW is unutilised due to the non-availability of imported fuel based on oil. This is due to the circular debt problem; b)poor maintenance and lack of spare parts and down time contributes another 1,500MW; c)low level of water in the dams reduces hydel power availability by 2,000MW in the lean period; and, d)insufficient plants are too expensive to run.

Having said that, the real issue is not availability of capacity but the affordability of power based on imported fuels. The imported energy costs around Rs15 to Rs20 per KWh whereas the hydel power from dams can cost less than Rs2 per KWh. Indigenous coal if available would cost Rs10 per KWh. The choice is clear but due to poor leadership Pakistan is being deprived of cheap clean energy from hydel.

TNS: How do you see the present system of power generation, distribution and shutdown?

SS: Well, the present system is dominated by the Ministry of Water and Power, Wapda and Pepco. This public-sector-dominated system has failed to deliver. Power sector reforms based on deregulation and privatisation have to be introduced if Pakistan wants to attract investment and modernization of the sector. This reform is very doable. Many countries have done it and time is ripe to do it in Pakistan. Without deregulation and privatization Pakistan will not be able to get an efficient, competitive and affordable power system. The perception of unjustified distribution amongst the provinces will continue due to excessive role of the government in production, transmission and distribution of power. The current stage of reform in power sector is similar to the reform stage of the telecom sector 25 years ago only deregulation, privatization and large scale induction in the telecom sector resulted in the current competitive and cheap telephony services similar reforms in the power sector are needed for competitive efficient and cheap power availability in Pakistan. The reform programme has been derailed since last four years.

TNS: How do you evaluate Punjab’s allegations of unequal power distribution? SS: As already stated, as long as the sector is dominated by government these allegations would continue to be there.

TNS: After the 18th Amendment, the provinces are free to generate power sources. Do you think they are able to do this in terms of the main challenges of capacity building, attracting investment, having right planning and policy making and engaging professionals?

SS: Pakistan needs to go much further and facilitate the role of the private sector to make any difference in the power shortages, line losses and nonpayment of bills. The provincial governments have no capacity to step in the power sector to alleviate the problems.

TNS: Why has Pakistan failed to pay attention to hydel power generation?

SS: Pakistan has the potential to produce 100,000MW of cheap (Rs2/unit) hydel power and also earns carbon credits, whereas it has only created 6,500MW of hydel facilities. This can be termed criminal neglect and the blame has to be laid on the PPP and the ANP. These parties can help the leadership to make a breakthrough that this country needs in this matter of life and death of the masses.

TNS: Are we heading towards a solution?

SS: Unfortunately, we are going in circles and not resolving the issues. The solution is deregulation, privatisation and focus on hydel power.

TNS: What are the key short-term and long-term actions which are required to meet the challenge?

SS: Immediate reforms as suggested above. Furthermore, introduction of a power market, opening up of transmission facilities to all producers, controlling the losses and theft is very important. Receivables from the public sector and resuming the stalled privatisation programme are others factor that can help.

— W. G.

 

  

 


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