A major new study has found that Brexit, the first Covid lockdown and Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget all contributed to a lasting rise in psychological distress across the UK.
Researchers analysed data from nearly 88,000 people in the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2009 and 2024. They tracked scores on the 12-item General Health Questionnaire, a standard measure of mental distress. Overall, average scores rose by 1.085 points from 2009 to 2023.
Biggest immediate hits came from Brexit and lockdown
The Brexit referendum in 2016 produced a clear jump of 0.117 points right after the vote. The first Covid lockdown in March 2020 caused an even larger spike of 0.649 points. That lockdown effect slowly eased over the following months but the overall level of distress stayed higher than before.
Mini-budget and Ukraine war brought slower, steady rises
The September 2022 mini-budget under Liz Truss did not cause an instant jump. Instead it was followed by a small but steady monthly increase of 0.015 points. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine produced a similar gradual monthly rise of 0.010 points.
These slower increases added up over time and hit harder in deprived areas and among people who were long-term sick or disabled.
Not everyone felt the same impact
Women consistently reported higher distress than men. Young adults, certain ethnic groups and people in the most deprived neighborhoods also showed larger rises after some of the shocks.
The study is the first to use quasi-experimental methods to show how these successive events stacked up and helped drive the long-term decline in UK population mental health.
These findings underline that big political and economic events can leave measurable scars on collective wellbeing that last for years.
