Asteroid 2024 YR4 caused quite a stir last year when it was discovered and originally calculated to have a 3% chance of hitting Earth.
Since then models have been refined and while it no longer has a chance of hitting Earth, it does have a 4% chance of hitting the moon in December 2032.
According to Phys, as that time gets closer, we'll have a better idea of the probability, but engineers and scientists are also planning for what we would need to do in order to ensure it doesn't hit our only natural satellite at all.
A new paper posted to the arXiv preprint server from NASA and a bunch of other researchers details potential missions and timelines that could make sure the moon isn't pummeled with a decent-sized asteroid in less than a decade.
Earlier this year, the asteroid made headlines after scientists identified it as having one of the highest chances of hitting the Earth on record. However, as time went on, that probability sank to a tiny fraction of a percent.
But even if it only strikes the Moon, the results could still be dangerous for astronauts in space, who could be battered by debris resulting from the collision.
In a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed paper, the scientists argued that our best option to avoid that eventuality is to blow 2024 YR4 up altogether as part of a “kinetic disruption mission,” a notable escalation from NASA’s 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which saw a spacecraft nudge an asteroid called Dimorphos off course by ramming it at high speed.
This time, they propose detonating the space rock using “nuclear explosive devices,” a violent option that could allow us to explore yet another way of deflecting potentially dangerous near-Earth space rocks, “even if lunar impact is ruled out,” the researchers say.
The researchers found that there isn’t enough time to launch a “reconnaissance mission” first to get a better idea of its mass, required data for a successful deflection attempt. Thanks to the James Webb Space Telescope observations, we know it measures nearly 300 feet in length, but its mass remains a notable unknown.
The team calculated that 2024 YR4’s mass could range anywhere from 72.7 million to a whopping 2 billion pounds, which would make designing a DART-like mission practically impossible.
The best option for a recon mission is a “late 2028” launch, they found, which would only leave roughly three years to intercept the asteroid.
