A discarded piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the Moon, with the impact expected on August 5, 2026.
The space junk, an upper stage roughly the height of a five-story building, has been drifting in a chaotic orbit for over a year.
Astronomers Bill Gray, who tracks space objects via Project Pluto, predicts the 4.5-ton hunk of metal will slam into the lunar surface near the Einstein crater at approximately 5,400 mph.
While the Moon is no stranger to hits, this event is rare because the “impactor” is human-made hardware.
Gray notes that while solar radiation can slightly nudge such objects, “the motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun and planets.
The rocket stage originally launched in January 2025, carrying lunar landers. Since then, gravity has been pulling it toward this final destination.
Gray explains that the rocket and Moon are essentially in an orbital dance where “on August 5, they’ll reach that point at the same time.”
Although the crash will likely be too faint to see from Earth, scientists hope orbiting satellites will capture images of the fresh crater it leaves behind.
