Prediction market traders have now become less confident that Elon Musk will win his lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman.
The multibillion-dollar case started in federal court in Oakland, California, on April 27. Initially, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi gave Musk a 60% chance of winning.
However after Musk finished three days of testimony on April 30, those odds sharply declined below 34% before later recovering slightly to nearly 40%.
During testimony, the tech billionaire Altman and OpenAI President Greg Brockman tried to “steal a charity.” Musk stated he assisted in creating OpenAI in 2015, came up with its name, recruited key staff, and offered early funding of nearly $38 million.
Furthermore, Musk argued that the company rejected its original nonprofit mission by shifting toward commercial AI development.
Musk also clashed with OpenAI’s lead lawyer, William Savitt, during cross-examination, accusing him of asking misleading questions.
Reports that Musk discussed a potential settlement with Brockman shortly ahead of trial may have also weakened trader confidence.
The lawsuit gathered significant attention on Kalshi, generating nearly $890,000 in trading volume.
Experts stated interest is quite high because traders expect the case to be resolved soon. OpenAI has called Musk’s claims “baseless.”
