In its Special 301 Report for the year 2008, the United States has placed Pakistan on the Priority Watch List for "inadequate" protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs). The decision has come at a time when Pakistan is under tremendous pressure from developed countries and multinational corporations (MNCs) to incorporate provisions relating to data exclusivity in its regime for registration and marketing of medicines and agro-chemicals.

Special 301 provisions

The Special 301 Report is an annual review of the state of IPR protection and enforcement across the globe, conducted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. The purpose is to identify the countries that do not provide adequate market access to US businesses or citizens, whose competitive advantage rests on their intellectual property assets. The criteria of adequate IPR protection or effective market access arising out of it is not based on any multilateral treaty, such as the Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO), but on American standards. Hence, a country can be declared as deficient in IPR protection and enforcement, even if it fully complies with its obligations under the TRIPS Agreement. Thus, Special 301 provisions may create obligations on US trading partners that are beyond the TRIPS Agreement. They are, therefore, seen as one of several US attempts to impose its values and standards on others.

Based on the extent to which they protect or enforce IPRs (or fall short of doing so), countries are placed under three categories: 1) Priority Foreign Countries; 2) Priority Watch List Countries; and 3) Watch List Countries. The first are those whose policies or actions have the greatest adverse impact on IPRs of US-based businesses or citizens. The second are those whose level of IPR protection or enforcement is not adequate. The third are those that have certain problems in IPR protection and merit bilateral attention.

In 2007, Pakistan was designated among Watch List Countries, but now it has been 'elevated' to the Priority Watch List. Other countries on the Priority Watch List are Argentina, Chile, China, India, Russia, Thailand, Venezuela and, interestingly, Israel. All these countries had the same status in 2007 as well. Why Pakistan has now been put on the Priority Watch List? According to the Special 301 Report, the country did not make "progress on enacting legislation to provide effective protection against unfair commercial use of undisclosed test and other data generated to obtain marketing approval for pharmaceutical products, as well as a system of coordination between its health and patent authorities to prevent the issuance of marketing approvals for unauthorised copies of patented pharmaceutical products."

The real issue, it seems, is the Drugs Act 1976, which is being amended to bring it in compliance with Article 39 of the TRIPS Agreement that relates to the protection of undisclosed information. Specifically, Article 39 (3) makes it obligatory upon WTO member countries to ensure protection of clinical test data, submitted by pharmaceutical companies to drug regulatory authorities or agencies (DRAs), against unfair commercial use. Since the Drugs Act in its present form does not provide for data protection, it is being amended. However, pushed by MNCs, the US, like other developed countries, wants the Drugs Act to be amended in such a way, as to provide for not only data protection but also data exclusivity. Hence, it is no coincidence that putting Pakistan on the Priority Watch List coincides with the finalisation of amendments to the Drugs Act.

Data exclusivity, data protection and TRIPS Agreement

What is data exclusivity? What are its costs and benefits? How does it differ from data protection? And what does the TRIPS Agreement say about the two? Let's elaborate! In order to get registered a new medicine it intends to supply in a country, a pharmaceutical company is required to provide clinical test and other relevant data to the DRA. The test data is necessary to demonstrate product safety, quality and efficacy. The purpose is to ensure that the product does not have any adverse effects on humans (in case of medicines) or the environment (in case of agro-chemicals).

These tests entail a lot of investment, which may deter potential competitors from entering into the market. When manufacturers subsequently apply to register a generic version of an already registered medicine, they only have to demonstrate that their product is equivalent to the original one. To test safety and quality of that generic product, the DRA relies on the data submitted by the original manufacturer and the generic manufacturers are not required to submit their own data. This encourages the entry of other players in the market and, thus, promotes competition.

In comparison, data exclusivity provides that for a fixed period the DRA cannot rely on the data provided by an original manufacturer in order to register a generic version of that medicine. This leaves potential competitors with two choices: either to make a similar investment in clinical testing or stay out of the competition. Obviously, generic manufacturers are seldom in a position to make the required investment in clinical testing and, thus, opt to stay out of the market. The result is that during the period of data exclusivity, DRAs cannot register generic versions of a medicine unless the new manufacturer carries out its own test ñ which is seldom the case ñ demonstrating product safety, quality and efficacy.

Data exclusivity is independent of patents and may create a monopoly for a fixed time, even when the patent has expired or has not been granted. Even when a patent is available, data exclusivity may prevent the government to grant a compulsory licence in the interest of public health. Even if a compulsory licence is granted to a generic manufacturer, it will not be able to use that for a limited period. Therefore, data exclusivity cuts across the very reason for compulsory licensing of patents for medicines. Compared with a patent, data exclusivity does not require any inventive activity for it to be granted. All it requires is investment made in carrying out clinical teats to demonstrate product safety. This makes data exclusivity much stronger than patents.

It is obvious that data exclusivity restricts competition and creates a monopoly for a fixed period. As a result, prices of medicines escalate raising health care costs. That is why MNCs try to prevail upon the governments to grant data exclusivity and to minimise competition. Data exclusivity is in vogue in many developed countries. In the US, data exclusivity is granted for five years; while in European Union countries, it is available for 10 years.

Having discussed data exclusivity, let us see what the TRIPs Agreement says about it. Article 39 (3) of the agreement states: "Members, when requiring, as a condition of approving the marketing of pharmaceutical or of agricultural chemical products which utilise new chemical entities, the submission of undisclosed test or other data, the origination of which involves a considerable effort, shall protect such data against unfair commercial use. In addition, Members shall protect such data against disclosure, except where necessary to protect the public or unless steps are taken to ensure that the data are protected against unfair commercial use."

The perusal of Article 39 (3) shows that it imposes two sets of obligations on WTO member countries: first, DRAs shall protect data against unfair commercial use; for instance, against the use by the government itself; and second, the data shall not be disclosed to third parties unless it is necessary in public interest. In the event that the data are disclosed, the government has to ensure that steps are taken to prevent its unfair commercial use. Without getting into the controversy of what constitutes fair and what constitutes unfair commercial use, one can safely say that whatever obligation does the Article 39 (3), or for that matter the entire TRIPS Agreement, creates is with regard to protection of data against unfair commercial use. Besides, the article does not provide any time limit for data protection, which means that it has been left to the discretion of WTO member countries to decide for themselves how long protection should be granted.

The TRIPS Agreement does not impose any obligations with regard to data exclusivity. Members may have data exclusivity provisions in their domestic IPR regimes, but then such provisions would be TRIPS-plus and, hence, beyond member countries' obligations under the WTO. Data exclusivity regimes make sense in developed countries for two reasons; first, these countries have immense innovative capacity and pharmaceutical companies may come up with their own data; and second developed countries are in a position to subsidise the purchase of otherwise expensive medicines to their citizens and, thus, shield them from having to pay higher prices. However, developing countries, like Pakistan, have neither the comparable innovative capacity that would allow their domestic pharmaceutical companies to come up with their own test data nor the means to subsidise the purchase of costly medicines.

Pakistan's case

Coming back to Pakistan, in case the amended Drugs Act contains provisions regarding data exclusivity, the benefits will accrue to MNCs at the expense of the domestic industry and the people. Data exclusivity will force generic manufacturers to stay out of the competition and increase the share of MNCs in the domestic market. This will confer monopoly rights on MNCs, resulting in escalation of prices of medicines and increase in health care cost. The ultimate losers will be the poor people, who already have limited access to cheap medicines. Already, MNCs are in a much stronger position than the local pharmaceutical companies. While the number of domestic pharmaceutical companies is 380, their share of the local market is 47 percent. On the other hand, while the number of MNCs is 28, their market share is 53 percent.

By placing Pakistan on the Priority Watch List, the US has given an implicit message to the country to incorporate provisions relating to data exclusivity in its Drugs Act. A pertinent question in this regard is what cost will Pakistan have to pay if it does not oblige the US on data exclusivity issue? Would the US retaliate by putting a ban on Pakistan's exports? There is no provision in the entire WTO agreement that would allow a country to ban exports from another country for inadequate protection of IPRs. The most a country can do is to challenge the IPR regime of its trading partner in the Dispute Settlement Body of the WTO, which would look into the matter and come out with its findings and recommendations. Therefore, an outright ban on Pakistan's exports can safely be ruled out.

However, in the worst case scenario, the US can exclude Pakistan from its Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), under which Pakistan -- like many other developing countries -- receives preferential treatment in the US market for its exports. This is because one of the conditions for the GSP treatment is that the country preferences receiving grants adequate protection to IPRs of US businesses and citizens. In 1992, the US excluded Pakistan from the GSP scheme on the ground of child labour. However, in 2005, Pakistan was reincluded in the GSP scheme. It may be noted that the GSP scheme extends only limited coverage to products of Pakistan's export interest. Textile and clothing, the products of major export interest to Pakistan, and leather products are outside the GSP scheme; and are entitled to most-favoured nation (MFN) status, rather than preferential treatment. Hence, even if Pakistan is excluded from the GSP scheme, the effect on exports will be marginal.

In any event, the government should strongly resist the pressure of the US and MNCs to incorporate data exclusivity provisions in its Drugs Act. Being a member of the WTO, Pakistan's obligation is only to comply with TRIPS provisions when it comes to IPRs and not with any TRIPS-plus provisions. Importantly, when it is a question of providing cheap medicines to the people -- a question of life and death -- possible loss of tariff preferences worth a few million dollars does not matter.

What with all the load-shedding, power breakdowns, boiling hot weather and everything else (including, not least, the forthcoming dreaded, deficit-ridden federal budget), one is often reminded these days of Yamamoto's Translated Theorem of Behaviour: Two longs don't make a light. Nor do four longs, for that matter.

If you're not into the lights and longs of the situation, however, here is Thornson's Law: The greater the emergency, the lower the charge in your cell-phone battery. A corollary to this law is the Download Factor: If a file takes an hour to download, someone in your office will pick up the phone in the 59th minute. Then, of course, there is the Make Your Own Breaks Credo: Success is a matter of luck; just ask any failure.

Nothing, it has long been said, succeeds like success. What about failure, however? Well, according to a wag of my acquaintance, it's probably just as well the twentieth century ended when it did because the world was running out of things that could go wrong in the twentieth century. But now that we're into a new century (and a new millennium to boot), we can start with what is known in certain circles as a clean slate and pile up a fresh track record of things failing, things going wrong, things going kaput, things going belly-up, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

Wynne's Law says: Negative slack tends to increase. Pearson's Postulate says: It requires a very unusual mind to make an analysis of the obvious. And Hubbard's Law says: The world gets better every day -- then worse again in the evening. I'm reminded, in this context, of a Peanuts cartoon that has Charlie Brown saying, "How can the world end tomorrow when it's already tomorrow in some countries?" The logic underlying this formulation is irrefutable.

Kovaleski's Dictum says: If credit can go to someone else, it will. Van Roy's Rumination says: Fools rush in where fools have been before. Frost's Observation says: A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it starts to rain. The author of this observation was the late American poet, Robert Frost. He was the one who recited a moving poem (The Gift Outright) at President John F Kennedy's inauguration in January 1961.

From appearances both wise and avuncular, Frost, in fact, was neither. His official biographer, Lawrence Thompson, created a harrowing portrait of the artist as monster, blaming Frost for the suicide of his son, Carol, and the commitment of his daughter, Irma. To be fair to Frost, however, his friends subsequently challenged Thompson's account and defended Frost's behaviour as a family man. But even Frost's staunchest supporters agree he could be ruthlessly ambitious.

While ambition in a poet may be wrong, it's considered perfectly acceptable in a businessman. In fact, businessmen are supposed to be ambitious -- the more ambitious, the better. Ambition is what drives them, the ambition to succeed and make pots of money. "I did it all on my own," your typical successful businessman will say. But when their business is failing, businessmen are quick to seek government help; anybody who reads the papers -- especially near budget-time -- knows that.

Maiorella's Mistake says: You only think it's possible to exceed the limits of possibility. Becker's Law says: It's always much harder to find a job than keep one. And, no, the author of this law was not Boris Becker, the tennis player, but Scalpel Becker, the well-known amateur brain surgeon. Rumour has it that Islamabad is full of amateur brain surgeons.

A special favourite of mine is Lord Falkland's Rule, which states: When it is not necessary to make a decision, it is necessary not to make a decision. Fewer decisions, it seems to me, would make for fewer goof-ups. The golden rule is: never decide today what you can put off deciding until tomorrow, or better yet until the day after the day after tomorrow.

A Spaniard said to an Irishman: "Do you know what 'manana' (pronounced mun-ya-na) means?" "Yes," replied the Irishman, "it means tomorrow." "Do you have an equivalent for 'manana' in Ireland?" asked the Spaniard. "Yes, we do," replied the Irishman. "But you know, somehow it doesn't have quite the same sense of urgency." It doesn't have the same sense of urgency in Pakistan either.

John Newbern's Law says: People can be divided into three groups -- those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened. In other words, there are the movers and shakers of this world, the kibitzers of this world and -- somewhere back there -- the philosophers of this world. It is the job of philosophers to wonder what happened, why it happened and even whether it happened at all.

In this context, here are two observations of a philosopher: 1) Nothing is opened more often by mistake than the mouth; and 2) A meeting is no substitute for progress. This latter observation should be engraved in stone on every government building in Islamabad.

The world is into computers these days. So here's a bunch of computer laws, starting with Crayne's Law, which says: All computers wait at the same speed. Then there's Robbins' Rule, which says: One good reason why computers can do more work than people is that they never have to stop and answer the phone.

Murphy, of Murphy's Law fame, has also got in on the act by coming out with a list of computer system definitions. Hardware: The parts of a computer system that can be kicked. Software: The parts of a computer system that don't work. Hard Disk: The part of a computer system that freezes up at the worst possible time. Peripherals: The parts which are incompatible with your computer system. Printer: The part of the computer system that jams when you're not looking. Cable: The part of the computer system that is too short. Mouse: See cursing.

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais is professor of Political Science in the Department of Social Sciences, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). He holds a PhD in Political Science from University of California, Santa Barbara, US. Before joining LUMS, he served as director of the Area Study Centre and before that as associate professor in the Department of International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, for 22 years.

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais was professor of Pakistan Studies at Columbia University, New York, from 1991 to 1994. He took Fulbright fellowship at Wake Forest University (1997-98); Social Science Research Fellowship at Harvard (1989-90); and Rockefeller Foundation fellowship in International Relations at the University of California, Berkeley (1985-85).

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais is author of Recovering the Frontier State: War, Ethnicity and State in Afghanistan (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2008); War Without Winners: Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition after the Cold War (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1996) and Indian Ocean and the Superpowers: Economic, Political and Strategic Perspectives (London: Croom Helm, 1986). He also edited State, Society and Democratic Change in Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1997).

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais has published widely in professional journals on political and security issues pertaining to South Asia, Indian Ocean and Afghanistan. His forthcoming research publication is entitled Pakistan's Borderlands: Tribe, State and the International System. He writes a weekly column for a leading English daily newspaper. The News on Sunday interviewed him recently. Excerpts follow:

The News on Sunday: Please tell us about your family background. Where and when were you born?

Rasul Bakhsh Rais: I was born in April 1947 in a remote village of the Rajanpur district, close to the western bank of the River Indus. My family migrated from that village to a small town when I was in the second grade. I passed the Middle exam, which used to be conducted by the Lahore Board at that time, from Anglo Middle School, Umerkot, in the Rajanpur district. Thereafter, I got admission in a private high school that was founded by one of the major landlords of the Rahim Yar Khan district across the River Indus. After completing secondary school education, I got admission in the Government College, Dera Ghazi Khan. I studied there for four years. It was during that time I discovered myself intellectually. Teachers at the college were inspiring, highly motivated and committed to intellectual refinement of the students. They took tremendous interest in my development. I stood first in BA exams in my college and won the Roll of Honours.

My next destination was University of the Punjab, where I got admission in the Department of Political Science. I topped in 1973 and won the gold medal. I was lucky to be taught by excellent teachers like Dr Hamid Hasan Kizilbash and Arshad Syed Karim. They were very profound in their understanding of political science and international relations, and engaged me and my fellow students in debate and discussion on various concepts and ideas. They were my role models, because they motivated me to get into research and teaching. It was at University of the Punjab that I decided to become an academician and not a civil servant.

My first job was at South Asian Studies Centre. I worked there for two months. Than I got a job with the National Commission on Historical and Cultural Research that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had founded. I worked there for a year-and-a-half. Then I joined the Department of Political Science at University of the Punjab and taught there for three years. During this time, I kept on applying for fellowships in various American and Canadian universities. In 1978, I got offers from three universities, two American and one Canadian. I decided to pursue my PhD at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and completed my degree in 1981. On my return, University of the Punjab refused to take me back. I was really heartbroken. They refused to take me back because of my liberal political leanings and because I was one of the few signatories to a petition against Ziaul Haq after he overthrew Bhutto's government.

TNS: What are Pakistan's major problems in your view?

RBR: We have not been conversant with democracy. There is no respect for the Constitution in Pakistan, because the military has been interfering in politics. Without a constitution, neither can a country have democracy, a vibrant civil society and respect for human rights, nor can it be considered as a developed country. We are living in a world that abides by some basic norms. The foremost among them are respect for human rights, an elected government and sovereignty of people. Unfortunately, most Pakistanis are not aware of their constitutional rights. In my view, this is Pakistan's number one problem.

There are other problems too. The feudal system in Pakistan has persisted since the country's inception and it is only the land-owning class that has provided leadership to the political parties. The reason for this is that the feudal lords have solid constituencies from where they can get elected. They get elected not because they have achieved something in their constituencies, but because they hold social control there. They exercise social influence and they have dominance in their respective constituencies.

TNS: But renowned economist Akbar S Zaidi argues that there is no feudalism in Pakistan?

RBR: Well it all depends on how you define feudalism. Even though the land-owning class currently does not enjoy the status it used to in the past, feudalism is not simply the acreage that one individual or family holds. It is about the social structure based on who you are and to which family you belong; rather than on your individual achievements.

TNS: Is the military responsible for the ills that are afflicting us as a nation?

RBR: No, I think it is the colonial legacy. The British Raj cultivated a land-based aristocratic class, which acted as an intermediary between them and the common people. This class worked as an instrument of social control. There were other levers of control as well, such as intelligence agencies and state institutions. Military governments in Pakistan only used this intermediary class that the British had created. So it is not only the military, but also the feudal aristocratic class of the country that is responsible for the ills that are afflicting us as a nation.

TNS: Don't you think that the India-centric policy has proved to be counter-productive?

RBR: I don't think that Pakistan alone can be accused of this. The blame also lies with India for its Kashmir policy. This territorial question has become a big problem for both India and Pakistan. But then Pakistan has also made a few mistakes, such as going to wars with India and repeatedly pursuing a confrontational policy. India responded in the same manner, so it is both the countries that have contributed to the situation that the subcontinent faces today.

TNS: Don't you think that Pakistan should have pursued an independent foreign policy, rather than becoming a US ally in the 'war on terror'?

RBR: It is a loaded question. The foreign policy of Pakistan has never been fully independent, nor has it always been dictated by the US. We accepted American patronage twice because of geo-strategic compulsions. There always were alternatives, but we don't really know whether these alternatives were better than the ones we opted for. Each and every foreign policy choice has its own cost, and one of the costs of aligning with the US was that the military became more powerful. For instance, Ayub Khan interfered in politics and took over the country. This was one of the biggest costs we have paid for becoming an American ally.

There have been issues on which Pakistan has been quite independent and not influenced by the US. Our friendship with China in the 1960s was not acceptable to the US, as was our decision to conduct nuclear tests or our Afghan policy. Before the US became interested in rolling back the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Pakistan was already in the country. It continues to remain a major player in Afghanistan's politics. So Pakistan has not toed the American line on each and every issue, but only on selected occasions when apparently there was no other choice. It is true that Pakistan has capitulated to American pressure a number of times, but it has never compromised on its vital foreign policy interests.

TNS: How do you look at Pakistan's Afghan policy?

RBR: I think the policy to confront the Soviet Union was justified, because what Russians had done against Afghanistan was quite damaging to themselves as well as the people of Afghanistan. It was not in reaction to Pakistan that the Soviet Union killed hundreds and thousands of Afghans. The Soviet Union did this to stabilise Afghanistan according to its own perception, but that was the wrong way of stabilising a country. In this context, Pakistan's support to Afghanistan is understandable.

TNS: Some western intellectuals predict the disintegration of Pakistan. What are your views on this?

RBR: I don't think this is ever going to happen. They don't know the history of this region and they don't understand what Pakistan is all about. The areas that comprise Pakistan have been together for thousands of years, so it is only a wishful thinking that the country will disintegrate.

TNS: How do you look at the recent general elections?

RBR: There has been a remarkable change in Pakistan. In the past, we had democratic movements, but now people seemed inclined to believe that democracy is not a solution to their problems. They forget that since the early 1950s people of Pakistan have been launching democracy movements. It, however, was big change that Pervez Musharraf had to take off his uniform despite enjoying the military's support. In fact, he was left with no choice but to conduct free and fair elections. So it is a major change in Pakistan.

TNS: Don't you think Pakistan should be a secular state?

RBR: I fully support that and I have been writing about this in my newspaper columns. Secularism does not mean absence of religion. Secularism, in my view, means that the state is neutral. I think if a sate has a religion, then it becomes authoritarian, fascist and intolerant.

TNS: Are you optimist about the future of democracy in Pakistan?

RBR: I am very optimistic about the future of democracy in Pakistan, because the people have repeatedly demonstrated that they want democracy in the country.

TNS: Is Pervez Musharraf is hatching conspiracies against the nascent democracy?

RBR: I think Pervez Musharraf has no respect for democracy. If he had any, he would have resigned much earlier. He should, therefore, be resisted with full force by the political parties.

(The interviewer works with Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, Lahore.

Email: zk0003@yahoo.com)

As the date for the much talked about Long March approaches, it is pertinent to ask whether we are finally about to witness the culmination of the lawyer-led movement that has been active for the last 15 months. The protagonists themselves have depicted the Long March as the epic last stand in the struggle against Pervez Musharraf and all of his accomplices. And if indeed tens of thousands of people march on Islamabad, one might expect a defining moment of sorts.

Having said that, we have experienced numerous defining moments in the last 15 months and it would be difficult to posit that any one of them was necessarily more or less significant than the others. In general, the agitation that has persisted in some form or other throughout this period has opened up a space in Pakistani politics that has not existed since arguably before the dark days of Ziaul Haq. The army is no longer a sacred cow, subject to criticism from all segments of society. People are talking about change, even if they are still not necessarily convinced that change will come. And reviled politicians are acting considerably more maturely than in the past, though digressions seem to have become a lot more frequent in the last few weeks.

This space has been carved out in large part though the efforts of those who have been on the streets, day in and day out, for well over a year. If and when the deposed judges are restored, there will no doubt be rejoicing at what will constitute a genuine defeat of the military establishment, and a victory for all democratic and pro-people forces. But it is important to put this into context and bring a little perspective back into the debate. If the chief justice and his companions return to their rightful places, will all of Pakistan's multiple crises be resolved?

Perhaps understandably, many participants in the ongoing struggle suggest exactly this. In Pakistan's context, given the overarching power of the military establishment and the historic complicity of the superior judiciary with it, the kind of reverse that has been precipitated by the chief justice's defiance 15 months ago is indubitably worthy of being called a radical shift.

But as discerning leaders of the legal fraternity, such as Muneer Malik, have pointed out, the struggle for a genuinely pro-people judiciary extends to the local level and there is as yet no evidence that the administrative / judicial system with which most Pakistanis come into contact has been transformed by the events since March 9 last year in any meaningful way.

To take this point further, the legal code prevailing in Pakistan even today is basically colonial in nature. If thinking about the rule of law, then surely it is crucial for us to envision and then realise a new legal code that genuinely reflects the public interest, rather than the GHQ's 'greater national interest'. And what about the economic structure that prevails in Pakistan? Notwithstanding the deposed chief justice's insistence that if he were sitting in the Supreme Court he would have taken suo motu notice of the sharp hike in prices of basic commodities, the judiciary is not capable of resolving deep social and economic inequalities or undoing our dependency on international financial institutions, no matter how committed it is to the people's rights.

What about the serious crisis of identity that Pakistan currently faces? Will the restored judges be able to undo the mistrust that the Balochs reserve for Islamabad? Will the struggle over the meaning of Islam in the Pakhtun areas, which have been ravaged by America's so-called 'war on terror', be resolved by the chief justice and his companions? Putting all our eggs into one basket is dangerous, if only because of the expectations that are then placed on the judiciary.

It would not be wrong to suggest that it was the weight of these expectations that forced the reinstated chief justice to take the military establishment head-on after July 20 last year, even though that task certainly belonged to political forces. In other words, an empowered and sovereign parliament is more important than an independent and fearless judiciary. It is after all the parliament where the people send their representatives to, and where legislation is done in accordance with their needs and wishes, at least in theory. It is after all the parliament that will have to decide whether Pakistan should continue being America's lap-dog. And it is the parliament that ultimately decides whether we need the judiciary's help when the military makes its next attempt to 'save the country'.

And, of course, an empowered parliament is exactly what we do not have right now. It is, therefore, essential for all democratic forces to recognise that after the restoration of the judges -- and there should be no doubt as to the symbolic and political need for this -- resting on our laurels is a recipe for disaster. The manner in which a restored chief justice is being projected as a panacea to all of Pakistan's ills may be understandable from a purely emotional point of view, but is a politically immature perspective to say the least. It is crucial that the more level-headed leaders of the lawyer's movement assert this point to the wider legal fraternity.

What is required the most in the post-restoration period is that those elements of the society that have been politicised over the last 15 months or so maintain pressure on those in power to take on the establishment, rather than make compromises with it. This is a delicate task, because it demands an appreciation of the establishment's manipulations. Nevertheless, if political forces play their cards correctly, the judiciary can play its rightful role of acting as a watchdog.

The change that all Pakistan's crave for hinges on a debunking of the national security imperative that accords the military establishment its mandate. As long as the society remains committed to a state ideology that sanctions the building of military might over the welfare needs of its people, there is no question of the military establishment being displaced from its dominant position. The events since March 9 last year have indicated that there has been a qualitative shift in the thinking of the Punjabi heartland about the role of the military, but this must now extend to a questioning of the national security state. The Long March should then be thought of as the beginning, rather than the end, of a long struggle to end the military's monopoly over state affairs once and for all.

Natural disasters have been with us since time immemorial. In recent years, however, the frequency of natural disasters has been gradually increasing, thanks to changing climatic conditions and a whole set of other factors. With this trend set to continue, the disaster relief regime too has undergone a radical transformation. In the past, disaster relief was seen as a purely altruistic operation, with the UN taking charge of operations along with host governments and NGOs. Now, however, disaster relief has attracted the attention of multiple actors besides those historically active in the area.

Naomi Klein, a noted theorist and activist, has recently unravelled the additional strand of complexity attached to disaster relief in her book entitled NO Logo. The book, which sold in millions, criticised the practice of consumers falling in love with brand names and logos of MNCs. Since then, she has been charting the rise and decline of global social movements by travelling to different parts of the world.

In particular, since the tragedy of 9/11, Klein has been focusing on the chaotic world ushered in as a result, to find some theoretical peg to hang her vastly accumulated knowledge. On the back of her recent book on the perpetual outsiders standing behind fences barricading the citadel of powers, she has homed in on the phenomenon of disasters -- both natural and planned -- and how business interests have plugged themselves into disaster relief operations.

Klein's intensely focused research on the subject has yielded new theoretical insights on planned disasters and the business interests piggybacking on disasters In her new book, entitled Shock Doctrine, she has collected all her ideas dispersed in various articles over the years into coherent theoretical framework, which lends concrete contours to the emerging phenomenon of 'disaster capitalism' in our age. She traces the rise of the most pronounced form of predatory disaster capitalism to the presidency of George W Bush.

In saying this, Klein seems to have found a plausible rationale for who drives the Bush administration: the disaster industrial complex. This is a bold theoretical innovation, because so far it has been believed that the military industrial complex drives the US policy. The Bush administration, on the other hand, continues to rely heavily on disaster capitalism, as proved by the engineered disaster in Iraq and its main beneficiaries.

Klein maintains that gone are the days when natural disasters descended upon us by surprise and then the relief operation machinery got into the act. In future, most disasters will be manufactured, either politically and strategically. She informs in this regard that the US established the Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (OCRS) in 2004, with a view to design post-conflict plans for up to 25 countries that are not even experiencing conflict right now.

In close coordination with the National Intelligence Council, the OCRS maintains data of a melange of rapid response teams, comprising private companies, NGOs and think-tanks, and defence contractors. The OCRS has pre-completed contracts with these rapid response teams responsible for rebuilding countries that are yet to be broken up. Thus, according to Klein, a pre-emptive deconstruction brigade has set up an office for perpetual pre-emptive reconstruction. This observation reminds one of another great American writer, Gore Vidal, who observed that the US would need to engage in perpetual wars to keep what it calls a 'perpetual peace'.

Klein cites examples of how millions have been pocketed out of disaster-related aid to Iraq. Closer to home, a news item in a leading English paper pointed out how millions of dollars meant for earthquake relief in Pakistan had gone into the coffers of US companies. Moreover, under the guise of disaster, the disaster capitalists are working extra hard to displace the people from the priciest real estate to other areas. The evacuated areas with great business potential are snapped up by greedy business interests.

Klein has also highlighted the role of the World Bank in capitalising on disaster. While the UN gradually squeezed out of disaster relief operations, the World back filled the vacuum. The latter has increased it aid -- not grants -- for such initiatives to 25 percent from 16 percent in 1998. The World Bank's stress is largely on institutional reform: opening the host country to private capital during disaster as well as post-disaster periods.

Citing a number of case studies, including from Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Haiti, Klein concludes that the rise of a predatory form of disaster capitalism is using the desperation and fear created by catastrophes to engage in radical social and economic engineering in developing countries. In short, the principles of free market are being ruthlessly imposed upon the poor countries, under the guise of disaster relief packages.

Allied to her broader thesis of disaster capitalism is the all-important theme of how disasters perpetuate already existing discriminatory practices. Because of private companies stepping in the disaster relief work, the rich are being provided with additional shock absorbers. There have sprung up a large number of private companies that lift the rich out of disaster zone before the poor.

This discriminatory service delivery issue was on full display during the Katrina Hurricane in the US, where the largely black and the poor underclass did not receive prompt rescue aid. With new radical perspectives emerging on disaster relief, the development discourse around the issue needs to reconceptualise. If Klein's theory is to be believed, governments would have to be extra vigilant during disasters to keep the disaster capitalists at bay.

At a time when record inflation is pushing more and more people below the poverty line in Pakistan, disasters like floods may once again catch the official authorities by surprise. In such an eventuality, billions of rupees will be lost in relief, recovery and rehabilitation of the victims from those damages that could have been avoided with a fraction of this money. Therefore, it is rightly believed that most disasters are human-made.

In the last week of June 2007, the Cyclone Yemyin accompanied by torrential rains and floods hit Sindh and Balochistan. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), it affected almost 2.5 million people in the two provinces, destroying habitats, as well as social and physical infrastructure. The federal government established the NDMA in December 2006, completely bypassing the parliament. The authority works under a commission headed by the prime minister, and initiates policies for disaster preparedness, risk reduction and management.

The national disaster risk management framework was also evolved by the NDMA. The mechanism was to trickle down to provincial and district levels, but nothing concrete has yet been done in this regard. Though notifications for the district disaster management authorities were issued by the respective provincial chief secretaries in mid-2007, these have not yet started functioning. In the Federal Budget 2007-08, the NDMA has been given Rs112 million, while the government has provided nothing to the national disaster management fund.

This situation is costing dearly to the country's poor. According to data compiled by the NDMA, the reconstruction cost of the 2005 earthquake is estimated to be about $5.2 billion, which is more than 20 percent of the national budget's outlay. In comparison, only a meagre one percent and two percent are spent on the sectors of health and education, respectively. Official data tells that more than 55 floods have hit Pakistan since its inception. The country has lost almost $7 billion in only 14 of these floods. Similarly, the drought that hit Sindh and Balochistan from 1998 to 2001 alone caused a loss of about $2.5 billion to the national kitty.

This loss can be minimised, suggests a report launched recently by Oxfam International, entitled Rethinking Disasters: Why Death and Destruction is not Nature's fault but Human Failure. The right policies can save both lives and money, because preparations cost much less than what disaster response costs. The report calls upon governments, donors and development agencies to incorporate disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation measures into all development projects, strengthen infrastructure, reduce underlying vulnerabilities, and encourage more resilient communities.

Countries with low levels of human development are significantly more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Consequently, they run a higher risk of such hazards turning into full-blown catastrophes. Though on average the 50 poorest countries are exposed to only 11 percent of the world's natural hazards, they suffer 53 percent of deaths from disasters each year. In contrast, countries with high levels of human development, despite their exposure to 15 percent of all hazards, account for only 1.5 percent of the death toll.

"Appropriate policies and preparations, on the other hand, save lives and money. The Kashmir earthquake, which killed 75,000 people, was not much greater in magnitude than Japan's Great Hanshin earthquake, which killed 6,000 people. Since the 1950s, Japan has consistently spent around one percent of its annual budget on disaster counter measures," the report informs.

Focusing on South Asia, the report mentions catastrophic earthquakes, calamitous floods and deadly droughts. Whether these events are unpredictable misfortunes or seasonal dangers, South Asia is the world's most disaster-prone region when it comes to paying the human cost. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2005 Kashmir earthquake have underlined the region's vulnerability -- those two events alone killed more than 120,000 people and left millions homeless in the subcontinent.

Annual monsoon rains frequently leave a trail of tragedy and destruction, because school buildings collapse, roads are waterlogged and mudslides devastate shanty towns. The 2007 South Asian floods provided a dramatic example, affecting about 30 million people. In the dry months, there are increasing reports of deaths due to heat waves or starvation in the arid regions of India, the highlands of Nepal, many areas of Afghanistan and the Sindh province of Pakistan. Disasters not only cause immediate suffering, but also hold back long-term development. Between two and six percent of South Asia's gross domestic product (GDP) is lost to disasters every year, and it is the poor who suffer the most.

After the 2006 flood in Sindh, for instance, struggling farmers with few assets to fall back on lost 60 percent of their annual income, because of damage to their cash crops. The extent of damage wreaked by natural events is not solely down to nature. Poverty, exclusion, inequality, as well as inappropriate political decisions and actions, all play their part. In other words, social conditions shaped by humans increase people's vulnerability to disasters and make recovery more difficult.

A home made from flimsy metal sheeting, for example, is far more easily destroyed than a more substantial one. Corruption and cost-cutting lead to infrastructure that is too weak to cope with natural shocks. Ineffective monitoring and communication lead to loss of life and property that fast and accurate information can prevent. Poorly constructed embankments and other flood control measures often exacerbate risks instead of reducing them. If mangroves had not been destroyed in Sri Lanka and south India, they could have provided a vital shield against the onslaught of the 2004 tsunami.

In addition, inequitable or poorly-designed responses to disasters allow short-term crises to become long-term ones. Women, minorities and lower caste people often suffer discrimination in the aftermath of a disaster -- increasing their vulnerability to the next one. Adding greater urgency is the fact that climate change -- for which developed countries have been overwhelmingly responsible -- is making people even more vulnerable to shocks. Two-thirds of South Asia's disasters are climate-related, and global warming will increase the frequency, severity and unpredictability of extreme weather events -- as the 2007 South Asia floods illustrated dramatically. An increase in temperature beyond two degrees Celsius will cause sea levels to rise dangerously, threatening coastal areas with flooding and drinking water sources with saltwater contamination. Such temperature rises are predicted to cause Bangladesh to lose one tenth of its rice production and one third of its wheat production over the next 50 years.

The NWFP has immense agricultural potential, but it has not been fully harnessed because of various reasons, such as lack of funds, absence of infrastructure and indifference on part of the federal government. In the backdrop of the ongoing food crisis, which it seems is going to last forever, and sharp increase in the prices of commodities, the need for tapping the province's vast agricultural resources is being felt even more strongly.

First and foremost, there is a need for developing a proper irrigation infrastructure in the NWFP. If the province's share of water, according to the 1991 Water Accord, is fully used, 0.7 million acres of additional land can be cultivated. Currently, about three million acres of land is being cultivated in the NWFP and this additional land will substantially increase the province's agricultural production. The problem, however, is that the NWFP does not have enough canals to channelise its total share of water. Therefore, a proper irrigation infrastructure should be developed in the province on priority basis.

Small dams are the second major source for water for agricultural purposes in the NWFP -- because a good part of the province's terrain comprises hills, rain water can be stored in these dams. Besides their use for agricultural purposes, small dams can also generate hydel power, which right now is critical for the whole country. It may be mentioned that canals and small dams are the cheapest sources of water for agricultural purposes, because once constructed they do not need any additional or recurring costs.

The third major source of water for agricultural purposes in the NWFP is natural streams, which abound in the Hazara and Malakand regions of the province. Stream water can be used by building small reservoirs. The fourth major source of irrigation water in the NWFP is tube-wells; however, they are relatively costlier. It is for this reason that tube-wells have been accorded a low priority in the provincial government's agricultural development strategy.

NWFP Agriculture Research Director General Muhammad Rahim tells The News on Sunday that it is important to note that water availability in the province is sufficient and various sources of water supply are available in its different parts. "The question, however, is how to use this water in the best possible manner." He views that as far as the shortage of wheat is concerned, the province can easily fulfill its needs provided the additional land for which water is available is cultivated.

The second commodity that is always in short supply, resulting in its increasing prices every now and then, is edible oil. "Besides the above-mentioned cultivable land, the NWFP reportedly has three million acres of cultivable wasteland that is currently not being used. This land can be made cultivable and research has shown that it has a vast potential for growing olives. Our estimate is that if olives are grown on even half of this land, they can fulfill the province's need for edible oil," Rahim says.

This may sound enticing, but to make it a reality there is need for a mega project with substantial funds. If foreign countries are really interested in contributing to improving the lot of NWFP's residents, they should financially support such projects. One feels that it would have been much more beneficial for the province had the establishment of the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs), a US initiative for setting up small industries, been preceded by a project aimed at growing olives on the cultivable wasteland.

Investment in agriculture, rather than in industry, in the NWFP is very important in the short-term too, because the former is more compatible with the tribal-rural conservative mindset of the province's residents and their social complexion. The increased agricultural output will require value addition, which in turn will result in the evolution of an agro-based industry.

Production of staple food items, such as wheat, can help in overcoming food shortage in the province, provided available water is chennelised to the cultivable wasteland and significant funds are available for this purpose. The NWFP's agricultural potential can be gauged from the fact that three districts of the province have been producing the finest quality of tobacco leaf in the world since the late 1970s. But income from the tobacco crop has unconstitutionally been included in the Central Excise Duty (CED) and, therefore, brings almost no return to the NWFP. As a result, tobacco cannot play any significant role in helping the province's economy.

The NWFP Agriculture Research director general further says the province has been growing enough sugarcane to cater to its needs. In fact, sugarcane production has been a major source of sustenance for millions of people, not only in the NWFP but also in the Federally Administered Trbal Areas (FATA).

To promote agriculture in the NWFP, there is a dire need for improving the existing irrigation infrastructure and extending the length of canals. But, according to provincial agriculture authorities, billions of rupees are required for this purpose. Unfortunately, the NWFP, whose resources have been subject to an extremely centralised accumulation and distribution system, never had the funds to develop its irrigation system. As a result, the province fails to use its full share of water under the 1991 Water Accord. The NWFP uses only slightly more than half of its share of water under the accord, while the leftover goes to Sindh and Punjab that have well-developed irrigation systems. In order to enhance NWFP's capacity to use its full share of water, there is a dire need for funds.

The NWFP Agriculture Department has introduced a number of varieties of various crops that are compatible with soil mechanics and chemical composition of the land. Using these varieties could substantially increase per acre yield in the province. For instance, a variety of rice called Fakhre-e-Malakand (The Pride of Malakand) has reportedly increased per acre yield by almost 100 percent. The variety has flourished by leaps and bounds in the Malakand-Swat area. Efforts are also on to introduce a newly developed variety of wheat in the barani (rain fed) areas of the province, which hopefully would lead to better yields.

It is important to note that the NWFP annually produces 0.9 million tonne maize (jawar), of which 0.7 million tonne is sold by the farmers to buyers from Punjab. The NWFP Agriculture Department is making efforts to check this trend. It is argued that Punjab always use the lever of wheat while dealing with the NWFP and a number of times it clamped a ban on wheat supply to the province for unknown reasons. So the NWFP government is trying to procure the local maize produce and then exchange the same with wheat from Punjab

Education in Pakistan is in a mess. As the low national literacy rate indicates, children should be deemed fortunate if they do make it to the basic education level. It is another question whether what they get as education satisfies the bare minimum standards of quality and objectivity. The alarming situation owes in no small measure to the substandard curricula in vogue in public as well as most private educational institutions. Accordingly, when the task of framing a new education policy was taken up three years ago, curricula reform ranked high on the agenda.

An elaborate process of policy review was initiated, based largely on extensive consultations with all stakeholders at district and provincial levels. The outcome was a document called the 'White Paper'. It has been duly revised since then, and is essentially the source from which the future education vision, policy, strategies and action plans are to be derived. It is, therefore, understandable that the 'White Paper' has an overwhelming significance for the future generations of Pakistan. With a new government at the helm of affairs, the time is ripe to examine the prescriptions suggested by the 'White Paper' instead of blind adherence to or outright rejection of the reform agenda. Let us briefly discuss what the future may hold for the learning / education process in Pakistan!

Impractical standardisation

Surprisingly, one of the major curricula-related issues taken up by the 'White Paper' is something labelled as "the diffused focus on the local context". Apparently, the recommendation is to provide weightage to local culture, geography and topography in school lessons. While one cannot be utterly dismissive of the logic, there are hitches conveniently overlooked by the 'White Paper'. In fact, the set of recommendations is itself contradictory. There is a policy proposal to standardise the process of curricula development and textbooks' review, under the Federal Supervision of Curricula, Textbooks and Maintenance of Standards Education Act, 1976. With the 'White Paper' frequently lamenting the paucity of curricula specialists in Pakistan, one is at a loss to understand how the objective of developing curricula that is relevant to the local context and is nationally uniform can possibly be achieved.

Not knowing the world

The policy recommendations in the 'White Paper' talk about incrementally raising the curricula "to the highest international standards, preferably by 2015". These standards (as exhibited by the elite and some mid-level private English medium schools in the country) have a lot to do with the teaching of both medieval and modern world history, and international geography. It is difficult to understand how Pakistani children will be able to compete internationally if they study disciplines from a mere local standpoint, with minimal or no knowledge of international history and geography.

The 'White Paper' also chooses to stress what it terms "globalisation and market linkages of education" in Pakistan's context. The discussion, however, is incoherent, though it makes extensive usage of fashionable terms like 'globalisation', 'industry linkages' and 'demand supply imbalances'. Here again, the 'White Paper' makes the contradiction of highlighting the need for "better skill standards and knowledge base" to compete in the era of globalisation and then harping on the recipe to "accommodate local requirements and opportunities" in the curricula.

Adding to the national chaos

Considering the internal and external threats to our unity, any attempt at curricula reform must incorporate concrete recommendations to promote national integration. Does the 'White Paper' propose anything to the effect? Rather surprisingly, it even refuses to acknowledge the issue in its true spirit. To the authors of the paper, Pakistan has merely suffered from "tensions (and even terrorism) triggered by societal polarisations, based on sectarian differences and intolerance". Hence, the remedy lies in designing school education to "smoothen the turbulences of sectarian differences, and develop a rational character and outlook of inclusion and tolerance."

One may ask are these measures enough to promote national integration. What about encouraging various nationalities that make up Pakistan to understand each other better and more closely? What about highlighting the history and growth of various languages spoken in the country, and the evolution of our cultural identity? Unfortunately, the 'White Paper' draws blank here. In fact, it chooses to mystify Pakistan's quest for a national identity by the alternate pursuit for a concocted Muslim identity.

"In the context of Pakistan, this ideological base is essentially and historically provided by Islam. We must recognise the value and importance of our ideological base while framing the education policy for the coming generations," the 'White Paper' asserts. Is this is a bid to prove that Pakistan was originally meant to be a Muslim state and, therefore, religious education should be our foremost priority? The deliberate and blatant promotion of a very questionable logic as the very reason for Pakistan's creation will do little to promote responsible citizenship among the future generations, while simultaneously distorting their vision of historical events and personalities.

What price democratic values?

It is indeed a good omen that the 'White Paper' stresses the role of the education system in promoting a democratic culture. Once again, however, the undertaking is as non-committal as it could be. The paper says that "the social upheavals the state of Pakistan has suffered, the lack of continuity in its political dispensations and the general immaturity of the political will stem from the lack of commitment of the citizen to the cause of democracy." Instead of throwing the ball in the court of the masses, the national education policy should attempt to promote a more politically conscious citizenry -- the school textbooks being currently taught in Pakistan do not even describe a federal system of government and prerequisites for it.

A half-cooked recipe

It is a fact that the school education in Pakistan is almost entirely textbook-based, with literally no additional reading material available to the children. Hence, the quality of textbooks is the most important factor affecting our educational standards. The 'White Paper' identifies some basic problems with the textbooks: They are frequently reported to be "dull, over flowing with information narrated in a confusing manner and full of printing errors". It also laments that there is "a tendency to inundate textbooks with information" and no attempt to develop "self-learner" students. The case against school textbooks is wrapped up by citing the "normally well written and interesting" textbooks for O' Levels, which "cover fewer topics, but explain each topic in some detail to help the child's comprehension."

This is a rather naive evaluation of the inadequacy of school textbooks in Pakistan, especially when one considers that this is the entire input for designing the national education policy. It has not been identified why our textbooks appear to be discussing an unwieldy number of topics breeding confused mindsets. The reality is that the proliferation of topics in the curricula is largely the outcome of repetition of certain favourite themes. For example, the textbooks of Social Studies / Urdu language have been 'Islamised' at all levels, except in some elite English-medium private institutions. As a result, Social Studies / Urdu language textbooks are so highly representative of Islamic personalities and concepts that the first half of the book is frequently indistinguishable from the Islamiat textbook.

This attempt at 'Islamisation' demands immediate remedial measures to bolster Urdu language instruction, and to enable understanding and analysis at a specific level of vocabulary to cultivate effective language skills. The 'lesson overlap' thus induced also has vital links with other curricula deficiencies. The overwhelming religious content has phased out a number of useful topics pertaining to geography, history, culture, economy and society from Social Studies / Pakistan Studies textbooks. The overdose of religious instruction stands in the way of imparting the child a peep into the world affairs, as well as political, social and economic structure of the country.

It is about time that the curricula and textbooks are tailored to ensure that the potential of our future generations is groomed and gainfully employed. The 'White Paper' falls miserably short of the task by overlooking curricula deficiencies calling for serious intervention. It is found wanting in the fundamentals and, hence, fails to devise an effective strategy for education reform. The new government should reconsider the measures proposed in the 'White Paper' in the interest of our future generations.

The current devolution plan, formally launched on August 14, 2001, was considered as a major initiative of the Musharraf regime for reforming the governance system in Pakistan. A part of his seven-point agenda, announced soon after he took over power in October 1999, the local governance system aimed at changing the dynamics of power nexus by devolving political authority, decentralising administrative functions, and distributing resources to the district, tehsil and union council levels. It also aimed at reorienting the paradigm of public participation in decision-making and development activities, including formula-based fiscal transfers to districts from provincial finance awards.

The creation of the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB) was a vibrant effort in this connection, which not only initiated and facilitated the local governance system but also handed it over to the provinces under the legal cover of Local Government Ordinances, duly protected in the 6th schedule of the 1973 constitution till December 2009. As per independent assessments, the NRB, however, has failed to fully implement its reform package.

In its second four-year term, which is due to expire in August next year, the three-tier local governance system is currently operational throughout the country in the form of 102 district governments, eight city district governments, 332 tehsil / taluka municipal administrations, 62 town municipal administrations and 6,131 union council administrations. It, however, does not include the Islamabad Capital Territory and cantonment boards.

As the existing three-tier local governance system is dominated by Pervez Musharraf's allies, the PPP-led ruling coalition, as per credible news reports, seems all set to wind it up or at least introduce drastic changes to it, by taking away the powers of nazims through amending the devolution plan, and depriving the district and town nazims of their administrative powers. "The current system is satisfactory, but a few changes are required regarding administrative powers of district and town nazims, including the powers to maintain the law and order situation in the district," Minister for Local Government and Rural Development Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour recently said in this connection.

In addition, two highly critical developments have taken place in the recent past. Last month, the Punjab government ordered to seal the record and freeze bank accounts of all district, tehsil and union councils in the province for a special audit. Also, the National Assembly took up the matter last month. Both treasury and opposition members demanded either drastic reforms in the system or its complete abolition.

Moreover, dozens of no-confidence motions are in the pipeline in district and tehsil councils by opposition members, whose parties are now in power in the centre and provinces. Independent analysts believe that most of them were deprived of being elected for these slots at district and tehsil levels because of the rampant political favouritism at that time.

Since its introduction seven years ago, the implementation and efficacy of the local governance system has always been questioned on several counts by independents analysts. The heavily-funded international donor projects and government patronage for putting the system in place have yielded mixed results so far. The local elites and bureaucracy has always been impediments in its way, as some of the proposed nomenclatures and operational modalities could not be made operational. For instance, the monitoring committees of elected members for each department could not be formed. Similarly, auditing of different tiers could not be conducted on a regular basis.

The complete fiscal decentralisation also remained a far cry, as even the routine financial transfers from provinces to district, tehsil and union levels could not be streamlined. The status of transfer of power below the union council level, through election and formation of Village and Neighborhood Councils (VNCs), also remained dismal, as no tehsil / taluka / town could conduct elections or form VNCs on its own. The only exception was about 1,000 VNCs formed in 20 districts across the country under a foreign-funded pilot project.

However, the component of community involvement, Citizen Community Boards (CCBs), showed impressive progress, as it was protected under certain legal and administrative provisions, such as the allocation of at least 25 percent annual development budget. As a result, according to NRB sources, between 2002 and 2007, more than 40,000 CCBs were registered and utilised development funds of Rs4.122 billion.

Still, there are strong reasons for reforming the local governance system. The PPP and the PML-N have already committed in the Charter of Democracy that "local bodies' election will be held on party basis through provincial election commissions in respective provinces, and constitutional protection will be given to the local bodies to make them autonomous and answerable to their respective assemblies, as well as to the people through regular courts of law."

Moreover, the PPP manifesto says that the party "believes in a three-tier system of government: federal, provincial and local. Each will enjoy autonomy and function under the law. The system of local government introduced by the military regime, which has been manipulated for political ends, will be revamped to bring it in line with the party's devolution plan. Primary education, basic health, water supply, sanitation and population welfare will be looked after by the local governments. The DCs will perform the functions of the DCOs. Local government will be based on modern patterns, such as that exists in the established democracies of the world. Caretaker district governments will be established during elections."

Similarly, the PML-N manifesto reinforces that "the plan for devolution of power to local bodies has been carried out to empower the impoverished and strengthen the local governments. But actually it has undercut mainstream political parties, left widespread corruption unchecked and shifted power away from the provinces as a means to bolster military rule. With this paramount objective in view, the PML-N will set up a high-level commission to look at the entire governance structure, including the devolution / decentralisation process, and to suggest amendments in laws that recognise the ground realities in each province and are also suited to the needs of the people."

In the run-up to the announcement of the forthcoming federal budget, the National Economic Council (NEC) unveiled the block allocation for the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) on June 2. The provinces have been demanding an increase in their share in the developmental spending for the past several years. For 2008-09, the NEC has allocated Rs371 billion for federal spending and Rs170 billion for provincial development programmes.

The SBP chief has cautioned that given the current economic slow down, great care must be taken in apportioning development funding keeping in view the expected revenues in the forthcoming financial year. The third quarterly report of the SBP has also highlighted the same concerns. The approach and content of the PSDP has been criticised by the concerned provincial officials, who differ with the verdict of the federal government on many counts. At the outset, several conceptual matters need to be put in the right quadrant to make the best use of this development chunk.

The federal government is reported to have kept about Rs350 billion for umbrella projects where provinces would assist in implementation. In the present scenario, the provincial governments are assigned to initiate umbrella projects with assistance of the district governments. It may be kept in view that the routine development of health, education and social welfare facilities are the normal job descriptions of local governments under the prevailing dispensation. The situation may become confusing if the federal government controls the major share of the development budget. The three-tier system, which is already under pressure from the political critics, shall lose its viability. The country cannot withstand radical changes in the developmental administration, which is marred by inefficiencies and lack of capacities on many counts.

The best available choice is to ensure optimum coordination between the three tiers of government. The federal government may restrict its role to planning and monitoring; provincial government may undertake programme and project preparation; and the district governments may be engaged in the implementation of projects. The technical capacity of the provincial and district governments must be periodically raised to launch and materialise routine development activities. The true spirit of decentralisation and participation of local stakeholders can only be achieved in this manner. Programmes of strategic nature may only be left for the federal government to implement through its specialised agencies, such as the National Highways Authority (NHA).

In terms of allocation, infrastructure sector is slated to receive Rs166 billion in the forthcoming budget, which is 12 percent more than the current year. This figure is still much lower considering the vital projects lined up for financing. Therefore, a few careful and strategic choices have to be made. In the transportation sector, there is a dire need for bolstering the Pakistan Railways, which is a pro-poor and cost-effective means of passenger and freight movement. During the 1990s, this vital service was adversely affected by state policies that tilted in favour of road transportation and highway development. Thus, the share of railways dropped to 10 percent for passenger movement and four percent for freight logistics.

Slight improvement has been seen in the recent years with attempts at modernisation by Pakistan Railways' authorities. Passenger movement has now increased to 16.3 percent of the total volume, while freight has elevated to seven percent. The Pakistan Railways has prepared a comprehensive programme to offset the damages experienced in the riots after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, as well as the ageing of its tracks, bridges and other components. A massive revamping is the need of the hour for this key logistic asset. A strong political will is the prerequisite for this.

The provinces are also reported to be following imprudent approaches, especially at this time of financial crunch. The Sindh chief minister is said to have pressed for funds to complete the Lyari Expressway Project in Karachi. This controversial mega scheme is an example of poor planning, inappropriate prioritisation of development and even corruption. Conceived as an alternative transportation corridor for the port bound-traffic about two decades ago, the previous government launched it in 2002. The project was designed to dislocate more than 200,000 people all along its right of way. More than 18,000 children have lost their enrolment in schools, while more than 20,000 dwelling units and structures have been demolished.

It runs parallel to the Karachi Northern Bypass, which shows that it would have very little utility in actual terms. Many sections of its construction are still held up due to the adamant attitude of local residents who refuse eviction. More than Rs20 billion have already been spent, more than three times of the initial estimates. Sindh has many other examples of development misadventures: Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD), Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD), KPT Fountain, etc. The lesson learned from these sad episodes is that mega projects in isolation for the anticipated benefit of a few can hardly serve any useful purpose.

The federal government is undertaking projects worth Rs140 billion in Balochistan. This amount is 20 times the development funds allocated in 2007-08 for the provincial government. Over a period of time, provincial governments have been demanding an enhanced role in developmental planning and corresponding allocations. Keeping the constitutional provisions for provincial autonomy, these requests are not misplaced.