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Editorial overview In
the global kitchen... comparison Serving
up scarcity Route
of law Enough
of guesstimates
From a net exporter of agricultural products, including wheat and rice, Pakistan has suddenly become a food insecure country. The prices of staple cereals have seen a stupendous rise in a matter of months. The atta crisis, some say, led to the then ruling party PML-Q's defeat in the elections, though many others put the blame on some, more important, political factors. The burden of crises, as expected, has now fallen to the share of the new government. In the case of food, one item after the other is progressively getting out of the reach of the poor; the prices of oil are only making matters worse. While all eyes are set on the government to come to people's relief, many pro-market analysts believe the government is the main culprit. On these very pages, Dr. Khalil Ahmad absolves the traders, wholesalers, retailers, hoarders, smugglers and profiteers for all that they do to reap profits and blames the government for creating unnecessary distortions. With due respects, we choose to differ. The free market has not worked to the consumers' advantage in our case and the prices have shot up wherever the government left it to the market's sweet free will. Only till recently, to its credit, the government managed to keep the flour prices at an affordable level for a majority of the population for whom wheat and flour remain the staple diet. Going by the market rules, hoarding is a legitimate activity because market works on the profit principle. The hoarder is justified in saying 'this is my wheat and I'll sell it at maximum price'. The government does not have this luxury. It cannot just respond to people's purchasing power like market does; it must take care of people's needs which are too many in a country like ours. As a matter of policy, the role of government in agriculture cannot be overstated. Apart from regulating the entire sector, it has to work on many levels; most importantly, to invest hugely in infrastructure development. This includes irrigation, roads, power, technology, rural access to markets and to increase agricultural productivity. It is rather easy to say that the international prices of food items should not affect a country like Pakistan because it does not have to import them. But the truth is that Pakistan cannot remain unaffected by the food prices in its neighbouring countries for long. And lastly, we suggest, Pakistan must treat Afghanistan as a local market in all its future wheat projections and aim for 25 million tonnes of wheat instead of 22 million tonnes. This will pave the way for formal trade with Afghanistan under full public knowledge, taking care of at least one major distortion.
While the external factors and events may trigger food crisis, it is political action or inaction that determines its severity and also whether or not a famine will occur By Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri Pakistan is today faced
with the worst double-digit food inflation. According to Food and
Agriculture Organisation (FAO), this is a global trend. In Senegal, by Feb
2008, wheat prices were twice the level that they were a year ago. In
Philippines, rice prices have increased by 50% over the past two months.
In Sri Lanka, prices of rice in March 2008 were twice what it was a year
ago, while in So why have food prices soared? Initial causes of the late 2006 price spikes included several distinct weather- and climate-related incidents that have caused disruptions in crop production in major grain producing nations. Perhaps the most influential is the extended drought in Australia that has caused the annual rice harvest to fall by as much as 98% from pre-drought levels. Similarly, floods in South Africa, another major grain exporter also affected the global export surplus. The second major trigger for food price hike is rising oil prices. Oil prices were $22-28 per barrel in 2005; within three years they have touched $128 a barrel. Oil factor has further heightened the cost of fertilisers, food transport and energy-dependent intensive agriculture. Once oil prices top $60 a barrel, biofuels become more competitive, creating a direct competition between grains for food and grains for cheaper fuel. No wonder, then, around 100 million tonnes of grain per year is being redirected from food to fuel (Total worldwide grain production for 2007 was just over 2000 million tonnes). As farmers in developed countries devoted larger parts of their crops to fuel production compared to previous years, land and resources available for food production were reduced correspondingly. This has resulted in less food available for human consumption, especially in developing and least developed countries. President Bush blames an
increasing demand for a more varied diet (especially meat -- one kilogram
of beef requires seven kilograms of feed grain) across the expanding
middle-class populati On the contrary, many analysts observe that filling a tank of an average car with biofuel in USA amounts to as much maize (Africa's principal food staple) as an African person consumes in an entire year. Hence they tend to shift the blame back to developed nations. American commodities' speculation is also having a worldwide impact on global food. Financial speculators seeking quick returns have removed thousands of millions of dollars from equities and mortgage bonds and invested in food and raw materials. All of the above mentioned factors, coupled with falling world food stockpiles have contributed to the dramatic worldwide rise in food prices. Here, it is pertinent to mention that population pressure is not being perceived as one of the major determinant of global food crisis as growth in food production has been greater than population growth. Food per person increased considerablly during the 1961-2005 period, and this trend has not changed dramatically with the 2006-2007 harvests. The problem is that once the price of food has risen, other factors kick in which make things worse. There is panic and people start hoarding, speculators buy up supply, and food producing countries impose export controls to try and preserve food for their own people. This means less is available to be exported to countries which rely on food imports. The second question arises, will these higher prices last? Energy gurus predict that oil price may reach $200 a barrel by 2012. Partly due to high energy prices and partly due to structural changes in agro-food commodity supply and demand, an over simplistic forecast for the next ten years predicts continuing high food prices. The prices may come down from their 2007 level but they would remain relatively higher than historic trends. It is pertinent to see how the abovementioned price triggers may be related to food crisis and food price hike in Pakistan. Let us take the example of wheat and wheat flour. It would amaze many that Pakistan was one of the top ten wheat exporters in 2007. We were the ninth largest wheat exporter with a share of 1.5 per cent in global wheat exports (China with a share of 2.3 per cent was the eighth largest wheat exporter, whereas Ukraine with a share of 1.4 per cent is the tenth largest exporter). With a bumper wheat crop in Pakistan, should the fall in Australian wheat production have affected our domestic market? The answer is 'no'. What about increased use of maize for production of biofuels in USA? Could it increase our wheat price? The link is neither visible nor convincing. Rise in prices of oil is a real challenge and our economy, like others', is being adversely affected. Rising oil prices would certainly be a limiting factor for crop production in Pakistan this year but it was not a limiting factor for wheat production during 2007. So what is the reason for current wheat crisis in Pakistan? Amartya Sen observes, "There is no such thing as an apolitical food problem." While external factors and events may trigger food crisis, it is political action or inaction that determines its severity and often also whether or not a famine will occur. Just imagine the political actions leading to wheat crisis in Pakistan. We exported wheat below global market prices. Later on, we could not stop hoarding and smuggling of wheat as well as wheat flour and had to import at global prices. On top of that, we did not announce the support price/procurement price (they are not synonyms but two different mechanisms) before the sowing season 2007-08. Punjab Food Department started issuing subsidised wheat to flour mills at Rs 480 per 40 kg from Sep 15, 2007. Later, the interim government announced the minimum procurement price of Rs 610 per 40 kg in Jan 2008; this price was subsequently raised to Rs 625 per 40 kg by PPP government. The public procurement drive for new wheat crop has already started from April 15, 2008. One needs not be a genius to assess that flour mills would have made a fortune by buying subsidised wheat and selling it back to food department of Punjab without milling it. It is almost Rs 350 per bag. While the various government agencies claimed that they were releasing subsidised wheat to flour mills, a large part of that wheat was not being milled into wheat flour. Again, a large chunk of what was getting milled was being being smuggled to Afghanistan. No wonder Attock district has 24 flour mills whereas urban Lahore has only 21. Proximity to Afghan border does matter when it comes to wheat supply chain in Pakistani context. Finally what can be done differently to avert this crisis? This crisis has triggered riots in Haiti, Cameroon, Indonesia, Burkina faso, Philippines and Egypt and is deemed a dangerous threat to stability. Even in Pakistan we had to deploy paramilitary troops to monitor the wheat-supply chain. The point to remember is that higher food prices have powerful distributional effects; they hurt the poorest the most. Prompt action is needed to protect the poorest and support low-income citizens as well as countries faced with global food crisis. At the international level, global aid and bilateral agencies are trying to play their role but are faced with resource constraint. At the national level, the government of Pakistan has decided to import 2.5 million tonnes of wheat at $400 per metric tonnes. Thus, it would be spending at least one billion dollars on the import of wheat. This imported wheat would be provided at a subsidised rate to flour mills either through utility stores or through other mechanism. One needs to see whether this step taken with good intention would work for the people of Pakistan or not. As the major challenge facing Pakistan as well as other developing countries is how to tackle their governance issues, including corruption, so that target population can really get benefit of such interventions. In the medium term, economic and agricultural growth can offset the damage, but this will require more determined efforts to boost food production. Theoretically speaking, if global price movements are transmitted to local markets, farmers in the developing world could benefit from the rising price of food. However, farmers in developing countries lack the investment and inputs needed to respond. Soaring food prices should be a wake-up call for the world to make long-term investment in the food supply chain in general and for countries like Pakistan in particular. Thanks to the helpless farmers of Pakistan, we had achieved the level of self-sufficiency in food after a long struggle. If the government wants to remain insulated from the external triggers then the only way out is to invest more in food production and turn food sovereign. Relying on food imports may lead us to a situation where we would have to increase the price of essential food commodities on a fortnightly basis as we are doing with our fuel prices now. (Dr
Abid Suleri is Head of Sustainable Development Policy Institute) Policymakers fear aggravation in the situation if nations keep hoarding surplus supplies and refuse to feed the hungry in other parts of the world By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed Of late, many food producing countries have banned or put limitations on their agricultural exports, raised export taxes or taken other measures to build up buffer food stocks to ensure adequate supplies for their people. These measures, which may aptly be called drastic in many cases, have been taken in the face of a huge food crisis confronting billions of inhabitants of the globe. Fearing crises within their territorial limits these countries have tried to restrict the movement of their food stocks beyond their geographical boundaries. While there can be many reasons for this situation the global trade liberalisation in food commodities can be termed the foremost. These commodities that used to be traded in real time and in the presence of available stocks have become the centre of speculative trading. Under this system, farmers, investors and traders have the option to sell forward their farm goods online anywhere in the world much before the harvest season. Consequently, food has become new gold for investors who expect more returns in commodities' trade than that likely from investment in bourses. The farmers in the developed world are direct beneficiaries of this trade as they have the option to sell their produce to a much bigger global market and that also at higher rates. But in the developing and under-developed world the farmer hardly knows what futures trade means and the real beneficiaries are the middlemen or the traders. In this emerging scenario, different countries have started behaving like cartels and making interventions in a bid to put a lid on rising food inflation. These measures are being taken at a time when global inventories of most grains are hitting lowest levels. Besides, soaring prices for agricultural commodities, including rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, have stirred popular discontent and demonstrations around the world. But a question that arises here is whether the situation justifies different countries' immediate decision to suspend grain exports? In fact, policymakers all over the globe fear aggravation in the situation if nations keep hoarding surplus supplies and refuse outrightly to feed the hungry in other parts of the world. This 'non-cooperation' on the part of food sufficient countries may even lead to the creation of their rifts with 'food dependent' countries. The situation has become volatile as nothing is hidden in this age of information. A review of some recent events reveals where exactly we are heading. Violent riots broke out in Haiti last week over rice shortage. Bangladesh announced shortfall of some 25,000 tonnes of rice but no rice exporting country expressed willingness to fill this gap. Similarly, Saudi Arabia that wants to fully rely on wheat imports by 2015 and end wheat cultivation to reserve underground water has made its plans public. It's anyone's guess how adverse the effects of this decision will be on international wheat prices. Food prices have been rising over the last couple of years and mostly affected the wheat market, corn and soybeans. The new factor now is rice which is the staple food for about three billion people in the world. Thailand has even talked about promoting a cartel of major rice producing countries to keep rice prices at a high level though the plan has not got enough backing. Sheikh Mushtaq, a leading trader in Lahore grain market, tells TNS that is next to impossible to delink local prices of grains from what's happening in the international market. "When the estimate of wheat crop in North America is low the price of this commodity is bound to rise in the other parts of the world. America exports most of its wheat to the world; when it's short of stocks others will automatically jump in," he adds. India has been one such country that has put a ban on future trade in commodities recently. Though the spot prices have come down a bit after this, people have started hoarding stocks, mainly wheat, in a bid to get better prices later on. To check this practice, the Indian government is now stressing on continuous monitoring and audit of movement of wheat from the government and private storage to the flour mills and from the flour mills to the consumer. This means taking a policy decision is not enough. Coming to Pakistan one finds that the increase in domestic rice prices has a lot to do with the international situation. It's because of the ban on rice exports imposed by countries like India that Pakistani rice exporters want to make money in the international market. There are reports that Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) had met the finance minister, Ishaq Dar, last week to seek his approval to export rice. Several advertisements have also appeared in newspapers in which rice dealers have opposed REAP's plans to export rice which is getting dearer and dearer with every passing day. The country is expected to have an exportable surplus of about three million tonnes of rice year. Even then the prices have shot up which shows how close-knit global grain market has come.
Is the increase in prices proportional to rise in input costs? By Aoun Sahi The prices of wheat,
flour, rice, pulses, vegetables and milk have increased alarmingly in
Pakistan "Last year, flour was available at Rs 12-14 per kilogram but now it has reached Rs 20-22 per kg. The price of rice has also increased from Rs 60 to Rs 125 during the same period. Prices of vegetables and milk have also observed a significant increase," says Azim Butt, 55, a resident of Garhi Shahu, Lahore, who cannot seem to understand who is responsible for this situation. "Frankly, the farmers who are the producer of a majority of these food items should be the main beneficiaries of this substantial increase in prices. But they are not," says Ibrahim Mughal, chairperson AgriForum, a platform of small farmers, Pakistan, talking exclusively to TNS. "The consumer buys rice at Rs125-150 per kg, whereas the farmer is not paid more than Rs 45 per kg," he continues. "Same is the case with wheat, gram, pulses and vegetables. Middlemen and factory owners are making huge profits while the producers and consumers are being exploited, because there is no mechanism in place to check all these irregularities." According to Mughal, on the one hand, farmers are not getting the just price for their output and, on the other hand, the prices of farm inputs are being increased majorly. "Growers have spent almost Rs 260 billion in 2007 on account of a sharp spike in the prices of farm inputs as fertilisers, pesticides, fuel, electricity and seed for their major crops -- wheat, sugarcane, cotton, maize, etc -- as compared to around Rs 150 billion in 2006, more than 50 per cent increase in one year." He adds that the rising cost of production is one possible reason why the cultivable land was reduced to 54.4 million acres in 2006, from 55 million acres in 2002. "Farming is no longer a sustainable profession. Margins have come down considerably, so has the growers' interest." The farmers' cost on these inputs is expected to increase further this year, owing primarily to a substantial rise in the prices of fertilisers, fuel and electricity. The price of Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertiliser has shot up to Rs 3,000 per 50 kg bag from Rs 1700 in 2007. The prices of other fertilisers sans urea have also increased almost with the same ratio during one year. The growers are forced to pay a higher price for fertilisers at the same time as their average use of these chemicals has also gone up. "Till about five years ago, we used one bag of DAP and one of urea per acre and would get around 40 maund yield. By the last wheat crop we had used two bags of DAP and 1.5 bags of urea to achieve almost the same yield," says Muhammad Asghar, a 45-year-old farmer and resident of Mandranwala, a village in district Sialkot. "The usage of different pesticides has also increased at the same ratio. This means at least Rs 3500 increase in the cost of crop production in the shape of these chemicals alone." According to Asghar, the cost of other major farm inputs such as human resource, diesel and electricity have also increased manifold. "Last year around the same time, the price of one litre of diesel (one of the main energy sources for tubewells and tractors and other agriculture machinery) was Rs 35, but now its price is more than Rs 50 per litre which means the irrigation cost will increase by at least 40 per cent. Tractor owners are charging more than Rs 2,000 for ploughing one acre of land while the rate to plant paddy in one acre is also more than Rs 2,000," he adds. It will definitely lead to a further increase in food prices in the coming days. "Why shouldn't we get international prices for our products when we pay international rates for inputs like fertilisers, pesticides, diesel, tractors, etc? Even electricity in Pakistan is more expensive than what it is in most of the agricultural countries," he asks. "The farmer, as a consumer of farm inputs, is forced to pay the market price whereas when it comes to selling farm outputs like wheat, rice and vegetables, he is not given the market price. It is the middleman and the industrialist who decide the rate of his produce. Both the producer and the consumer have no say whatsoever in this process," adds Ibrahim Mughal. "The small growers have developed a tendency to reduce the use of high-priced inputs like DAP which is essential for increasing the crop yield. To save on their cost, the country is often unable to achieve its targets for different crops." According to him, as most of the farmers in Pakistan (73 per cent) are small ones, the solution lies in providing cheaper inputs to farmers, especially the smaller ones, and ensuring that they get sufficient electricity, water and quality seed at reduced prices. "It is the only option to keep prices of farm inputs as well as outputs (food items) in control," he declares.
The government-elite nexus leads to distortion of the food market, the consequences of which are borne by the common man in the form of shortages and high prices History shows that every
government tries to control food prices. Be it Hammourabi of Babylon The government in Pakistan, whether military or civil or a mix of both, has been doing virtually the same on the issue of food prices. They control the production and movement of food items, especially wheat, right from sowing of crops to irrigating, fertilising and harvesting them, before pricing and selling them in the wholesale as well as retail markets. Then they ban their movement from one province to another and even from one district to another. They also excercise control on their import and export. All these measures have resulted, time and again, in consequences that benefit the elite at the expense of the lay man. It is this 'criminal' complicity of the government with the country's elite that serves to distort the food market and the ordinary people have to suffer in the form of shortages and high prices. Although the people are told -- and they believe it, too -- that it is the traders, the wholesalers, the retailers, the hoarders, the smugglers and the profiteers who cause the shortages and raise the prices to earn huge profits, the crisis is actually due to the government's mismanagement. As a matter of fact, traders, wholesalers and retailers do business in a closed market where the demand is always greater than the supply of an item. And, it requires no profound knowledge of Economics for one to know that limited supply and higher demand of an item causes its price to rise. It is also basic to Economics that the demand of food items is inelastic. Their demand undergoes no great fluctuations whereas their supply may decrease due to various factors. Thus, their prices may show an upward trend in such times. As regards the hoarders and smugglers and profiteers, they are our 'benefactors'; they ultimately serve and supply us what we need in times of need. In some cases, they even provide us with low-priced, quality items that are comparatively cheaper than those produced domestically. They charge their own price because their act of storing/hoarding and transporting the items involves many risks. They can lose the stored/hoarded items in the event of any disaster. There could be a greater supply from an unseen quarter in the face of which their prospects of earning profits are doomed. Or, such factors may intervene that deprive them of their expected profits. How the government acts in the matter of food items is quite pernicious. It has a number of agencies and departments which, for example, oversee crops and offer advice about the time when they should be sown or given fertilisers, estimate the production of various crops against the expected demand in the country, and control its price at the time of harvesting by fixing a support amount. Then, they purchase a definite quantity of the item to keep the local market supplied with it when there is a shortage. They also keep an eye on its movement and restrict it to a specified area -- a district or a province. They never achieve their target of keeping the people supplied with abundant food items at a 'fair' price. What these agencies and measures do easily achieve is the distortion of the food market. The present spell of food crisis exposes the government's mismanagement. First there were inflated estimates of wheat production on the basis of which its export was allowed. Then, of course, there had to be a shortage of wheat/flour supply in the local market and, finally, the government started importing wheat at very high rates. It is height of mismanagement that instead of allowing unrestricted import of wheat from foreign countries, the government took such steps that played havoc with the food market. As the government agencies control the supply of wheat to the local flour mills in order to stop the flour 'smuggling' and to ensure a desired supply of flour to the local market, paramilitary forces, Rangers, were posted at the flour mills. This outrageous act was tantamount to another act of nationalising the flour mills. This panicked the owners of the flour mills and curtailed their freedom to do business. This did not stop the smuggling of flour to Afghanistan; but its prices rose in the local market. As we know, it takes time for economic policies to materialise and bear results. So, after about a century of such anti-market policies, we have reached a stage where every measure and step of the government to increase the supply of staple food items and control their prices has started to backfire. The shortage of food items, particularly that of wheat/flour, is persistent. The trend of prices is constantly in upward direction. For ordinary mortals, there is no relief. In a world where political boundaries and the mismanagement of the managers/planners of these boundaries are causing famine-like food shortages, isn't it a matter of argument that one district or province is facing shortage of wheat/flour, and other provinces or districts are imposing a ban on the free movement of the item? Under the circumstances, what is urgently required of the government is that it should not manage or, better say 'mismanage', the food supply chain. It should loosen its control and let the food market work freely. This will help the growers receive the true signals from the market, i.e. they will see what is it that is in high demand. This will spur the production of food items. In addition, the government should open borders for food items' import and export; but this should not create another form of 'License Raj'. Instead, an open and transparent policy of issuing import and export licenses should be adopted and practised. No doubt, this restoring of the food market to its original, natural form will have Pakistan 'get fed'. Also, this will -- in short a span of time -- stabilise the supply of food items and their prices as well. (The
writer can be contacted at khalil@asinstitute.org)
So organised is the business of smuggling in Fata that every clan of every tribal region shares the booty collected for the provision of passage to goods By Mushtaq Yusufzai Unfrequented routes in
the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan along the border with war-torn Owing to the long, porous border shared between the two countries, these routes can be as many in number as one would wish them to be. Out of the seven tribal agencies, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram and North Waziristan provide for the safest routes for smuggling edibles, especially flour, ghee, rice and gur (molasses) to the neighbouring Afghanistan. All these tribal regions have specific routes established at places besides temporary ones. Ziara in Khyber, Ghulam Khan in North Waziristan, Sadda in Kurram and Ghakhi Pass in Mohmand Agency have attained permanent status of a market place for the reception and dispatch of smuggled goods to and from Afghanistan. Besides these areas, there are dozens of unfrequented routes in this long, unmarked border where the smugglers can easily cross and take food items to the war-ravaged country. There are various famous smuggling spots in the militant-controlled North Waziristan tribal agency, including Ghulam Khan, Alwar Mandi, Spinwam, Saidgai and Shawal where, according to official sources, 15-20 heavy trucks, carrying 300 bags each, cross into Afghanistan. This has caused a rise in prices of flour and other edible items like rice, ghee and sugar in the tribal region. One Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur, militants' central leader in North Waziristan, imposed a ban on flour smuggling to Afghanistan but he had to withdraw his decision after his Taliban friends (in Afghanistan) informed him that the ban had given rise to flour crisis for the people of Afghanistan. "There is a huge difference in flour prices in Miramshah and Khost in Afghanistan where flour and rice is being daily smuggled. The price of 80kg flour bag is Rs 5,000 while the same quantity is being sold at Rs 7,000 in neighbouring Khost province," says Syed Halim, a local resident, while talking to TNS. Similarly, in Mohmand and Bajaur, also controlled by tribal militants, the smugglers go about their business without fear -- to Afghanistan and back. The vehicles loaded with flour can be seen crossing the border via Ghakhi Pass in Mohmand and Nawa Pass in Bajaur with the blessings of the militants. So organised is the affair in FATA that every clan of the respective tribal region shares the booty collected for the provision of passage to these goods. However, in tribal regions such as North Waziristan and Khyber Agency, the booty falls in the pocket of the local militant organisations. While the militants affiliated with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan pocket the tax for these goods in Miramshah, Mangal Bagh, head of a militant organisation -- Laskar-i-Islam -- does the same in Khyber Agency. Sur Ghar, the smuggling route in Khyber Agency, was a bone of contention between two tribes of the tribal agency before Mangal Bagh brought the same into his jurisdiction in 2005. Earlier, clashes between Malikdin Khel tribe and Sheikhmal Khel clan of the Bar Qambar tribe over the ownership of the smuggling route continued for two years and claimed dozens of lives in the year 2004. But, only months after they agreed on sharing the booty, Mangal Bagh had emerged strong enough to claim the same. If words of the local tribesmen are to go by, only 25 per cent of the booty now collected by the militant organisations provides for the financial requirements of the organisation while the rest is distributed among government agencies to keep them friendly. These agencies, they allege, include the political administration and the Frontier Corps deputed in the agency for the last many years. This is unlike other tribal regions, nor the security forces have any objection to the activities of the militants, and the latter also do not have any problem with the presence of the former in Khyber Agency. It's high time we said goodbye to obsolete methods used for crop estimation No doubt the wrong estimates about the crop size have had a lot to do with the food crises that have hit our country. This is mainly for the reason that even in this modern era our policymakers are relying more on the traditional but unreliable methods of crop estimation and not benefitting from technology. The methodology in place
is that multiple players are doing stand-alone surveys resulting in One main objection to this method of crop estimation is that sampling is done without any principle and most of the times the figures reached at prove wrong at the end of the day. Secondly, the successive Pakistani governments have been in the habit of announcing inflated figures just to make the country's economic growth figures attractive to the outside world. The same happened in 2007. The then prime minister Shaukat Aziz made a prediction about a bumper wheat crop and lifted the four-year ban on wheat export. Whereas the exact situation was much different from what was being said. Farmers either exported wheat or stocked it on expectations of getting better price in the international market. Soon the country that was poised to export wheat was talking about importing to meet the domestic shortfall of the crop. In order to avoid such situations in future the government needs to adopt modern procedures like remote sensing and benefit from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographical Imaging System (GIS) technology. By definition "remote sensing is largely concerned with the measurement of surface reflectance of energy (from the sun) from objects and drawing inference from such reflectance for identification of objects of interest." To put it simply one can say that with the help of satellite sensors the different types of land and vegetation in the area under surveillance can be identified. The scientific phenomenon at work in this case is that different objects on the earth's surface exhibit different reflectance patterns that can be observed with the help of satellites built for this purpose. The technology makes it possible to detect the exact number hectares of land where a particular crop has been sown. In our country, Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has started work in this direction but the progress is quite slow. Therefore, it's the need of the time to benefit from this technology and say goodbye to the obsolete system we are dependent on. Remote sensing can also help in tracking the stocks that go missing every year -- either they are smuggled or hoarded. When you have documented proofs (satellite images in this case) about the lands growing a particular crop you can verify it from the owners where they have sold it. In Afghanistan remote sensing is used to detect illicit poppy farming with the help of satellites. -- S Irfan Ahmed
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Bangladesh they increased by 66 per cent within the same period.
on of China and India to be the major cause of the
global food crisis.
over the last two or three years. According to a World Food Programme (WFP)
report, food prices (majority of which are farm outputs) in Pakistan have
increased by at least 35 per cent in 2007.
(1760 BC) or Emperor Diocletian of Rome (AD 284), all attempted to provide
their people with food items in controlled prices. Diocletian wouldn't
tolerate any defiance and he punished those with death who sold items
above the fixed prices. This draconian measure emptied shops and there was
a shortage of goods of basic necessity.
Afghanistan have always meant a safe passage for those involved in
smuggling the edibles out of the country.
duplication and sometimes, conflicting results. What happens is that
patwaris or other local revenue collectors are employed for agriculture
census. Estimates of area sown under major crops are arrived at through
sample surveys undertaken by the directorates of crop reporting service.
The data is then compiled at provincial level and finally consolidated to
reach a figure regarding the total expected yield of a particular crop.
Land use data is provided by provincial agriculture departments which also
has information about the types of crop cultivated on these lands.