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issue Always
loyal to the benefactor Taal
Matol 'Problems
ahead for the next government' RIPPLE EFFECT The new cybercrime ordinance means that anyone using a computer or sending an SMS should think twice By Shahzada Irfan Ahmed Think twice before you
click the send button on your computer screen or press any of your mobile Titled 'Prevention of Electronic Crime Ordinance 2007' and known popularly as Cybercrime Ordinance, it covers cybercrimes like criminal data access, electronic fraud and forgery, misuse of electronic systems or electronic devices, unauthorised access to codes, misuse of encryption, malicious code, spamming, unauthorised interception and cyber terrorism. The ordinance also declares sending of unwanted SMSs', pictures taken without the permission of the person photographed, emails carrying obscene material as cybercrimes. The severest punishment -- death penalty -- however is prescribed for acts that may threaten national security or have been done with a terroristic intent -- a term unheard of in the past. Though the IT industry and the business community on the whole had been demanding of the government to have an effective law to curb cybercrime, the said piece of legislation has not been welcomed by many. Most believe, that instead of increasing the confidence of investors, businesses and customers the ordinance has further deteriorated the situation and created a sense of distrust among stakeholders. Similarly, the advocates of free speech, have termed it another attempt on part of the government on freedom of expression just like the amendment in Pemra ordinance, which was used to strangulate the electronic media after Nov 3, 2007. They say the law provides for a tribunal which is 'in effect judge jury and executioner all encompassing'. The extraordinary powers that the ordinance vests in FIA, authorising it to confiscate and arrest anyone who is deemed by the government to be acting in violation of the integrity of Pakistan, are also being seen with serious concern. Barrister, Zahid Jamil, who was part of the team that drafted the Electronic Transactions Ordinance (ETO), 2002, is not satisfied with the provisions of the ordinance and terms it defective. In a recently held presentation to stakeholders, Zahid said that most definitions given in the ordinance contain the words 'includes but not limited to.' This vagueness, according to him, opens up the possibility of misuse and provides added ammunition in the hands of law enforcement agencies. He says, the bill requires a structural overhaul as it is mostly non-compliant and 'cannot be fixed with surgical amendments.' The objectives, outlined for the ordinance include, enhancing the confidence of bankers and their customers with regard to electronic transactions and providing a secure cyberspace that will be friendly and congenial to the IT sector. But the reality on ground is that all those who were supposed to benefit from this legislation see themselves as the most vulnerable lot. Jehan Ara, President of Pakistan Software Houses Association, (Pasha) tells TNS that no doubt a cybercrime ordinance was the need of the time,. but the problem with the recently promulgated ordinance is that the government has not taken stakeholders into confidence beforehand. The ordinance lacks certain details and many of definitions are vague or incorrect altogether. For example, she says, "the ordinance prescribes punishment for sending 'immoral' messages without clearly differentiating between a decent and an immoral message. When you leave it to people to decide on this, law enforcers in this case, you are definitely compromising on the basic rights of the citizens". Jehan adds that, in the presence of a convention on cybercrime, Budapest, there does not seem to be a need for having a separate law. Many countries have already signed this convention, whereas countries like China and Singapore are considering joining it soon. "Pakistan can also do that and join the international struggle to curb cybercrime. I can't figure out how we will be able to make other countries understand these clauses having cultural and social undertones", said Jehan. The Pasha president tells TNS, that the worst part of the story is that the ordinance does not describe any chain of custody in case a computer network is confiscated by members of some law enforcing agency. "They can change, add or delete the data without even letting the owner know about it. So, there are chances of producing concocted evidence against a suspect or loss of precious data." Shahid Ali, a photojournalist based in Lahore, tells TNS that he has heard about the new ordinance that will stop him from performing his duty. "I can't figure out how can I take action photos if I start seeking permission from everybody? Our editors want us to return with exclusive photos, not group photos." FIA Cyber Crime Unit, Lahore Deputy Director, Zia-ul-Islam tells TNS that the foremost purpose of the ordinance to curb cybercrime which is extremely detrimental to businesses done electronically. He says it is not true that the ordinance does not grant the suspects right to defend themselves. In fact, all the offences mentioned in the ordinance except three, are compoundable, non-cognisable and bailable. Zia says, the use of internet for terroristic activities is not new. "Terrorists have been using emails to send coded messages to each other and executing their plans. Hence, there was an urgent need to have a mechanism in place to put a check to their activities." Zia tells TNS that "service providers like ISPs and cellular phone companies are required by the law to retain customers' data for six months or longer periods if need be. The data that may include emails, SMSs' etc can be accessed to track culprits," he adds.
By Rahimullah Yusufzai Since 1999, Owais Ahmed Ghani has been gifted some of the choicest jobs in Pakistan. He has been a provincial minister in the NWFP, a federal minister and then Governor of Balochistan for four years and five months. And now President General (r) Pervez Musharraf has made him Governor of NWFP, the most powerful among the four governors in the country due to the strategic importance of the Frontier. He didn't fight and win
elections to claim those prized jobs. All he had to do was to grab the After Miangul Aurangzeb, son of the former 'Wali' (Ruler) of Swat who served as governor of both Balochistan and NWFP, Owais Ghani is the only other person to have taken up the gubernatorial assignment in both Quetta and Peshawar. Both first served as governor in Balochistan and were then shifted to their native NWFP. Miangul Aurangzeb, who has been a steadfast Muslim Leaguer and is known for his wit and candour, owed his elevation to these two high-profile jobs to Nawaz Sharif, who was prime minister at the time. However, Owais Ghani could claim to have outlasted Miangul Aurangzeb by serving for a much longer period as Governor of Balochistan. He may also better Miangul Aurangzeb's record as Governor of NWFP because the latter served briefly in that position in Peshawar. Ironically, Owais Ghani's meteoric rise began when he quit party politics by resigning as the NWFP head of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf. Until then he had been a small-time politician trying to organize the fledgling party in the province and becoming frustrated due to lack of progress on this score. Imran Khan's style of politics also disappointed Owais Ghani. Owais Ghani was chosen by military authorities following General Musharraf's coup against the democratically elected prime minister Nawaz Sharif in October 1999 to serve as provincial minister for industries and labour in the NWFP. He was considered suitable for the assignment as he was an industrialist and the joint owner of a small steel manufacturing factory in Peshawar. The then NWFP governor, Lt Gen (r) Iftikhar Hussain Shah, was an energetic and efficient man and he ensured that his ministers concentrated on their job. One cannot say if Owais Ghani left his mark as minister but his commitment to make Peshawar's Hayatabad town 'ITabad' by promoting it as a centre of information technology didn't materialise. When federal minister and social activist, Omar Asghar Khan, died in mysterious circumstances in Karachi, Owais Ghani was picked up by General Musharraf to serve in his place as member of the cabinet on the NWFP quota. That is how he came to the attention of the uniformed president and is still in his good books. According to Owais Ghani, he met the president alone only on two occasions while serving in his cabinet. It seems he had impressed the president during those meetings so much that he was subsequently appointed Governor of Balochistan. For the next almost four and a half years, he held his job in violent and unpredictable circumstances. It was during his tenure that Balochistan suffered turmoil due to an insurgency spearheaded by Bugti, Marri and other tribesmen. Acts of sabotage peaked during this period, the president and some of his army officers were attacked with rockets and in a subsequent military action, Nawab Akbar Bugti, former governor and chief minister, was killed. The violence has now come down to sporadic incidents of rocketing and roadside bombings even though Baloch youngsters are angry with the armed forces and the Centre for allegedly denying them their rights and controlling Balochistan's huge natural resources. Owais Ghani believes he prevailed upon the president to keep military option as subservient to the political initiative for resolving the conflict in Balochistan. He and the military authorities refer to it as the 'Balochistan model' and Owais Ghani is keen to replicate this in the NWFP in the hope of peacefully resolving the conflicts in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) such as South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Bajaur and Mohmand Agency. However, it remains to be seen whether the military commanders operating in the troubled tribal region would allow him to undertake political initiative based on tribal customs and traditions to peacefully resolve the acute problems of militancy and dissatisfaction haunting the province and the country. One factor that won Owais Ghani the job of Balochistan's governor, was his family's tribal roots in the province. By his own admission, he had been to Balochistan only twice before taking oath as Governor in Quetta. But his family originally belonged to the Kakar tribe living in Balochistan's Zhob district. His grandfather, Sardar Hannan Khan Kakar, was brought by his mother from Zhob to Peshawar in late 1880s when he was only six years old to escape a blood-feud. They settled in Peshawar and the family kept growing. Owais Ghani's uncle, Sardar Abdur Rab Nishtar, freedom-fighter and Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah's trusted aide, earned countrywide fame and respect due to his integrity and principled politics. Owais Ghani's late father, Sardar Abdul Ghani Khan, was well-known in Peshawar. His uncles were also known Peshawarites. One of his cousins, General Abdul Waheed Kakar, served as Pakistan Army chief. The wife of Aftab Sherpao also happens to be his cousin. It is a well-connected family and influential both politically and socially. For the 56-year old Owais Ghani, the job of NWFP Governor would be his toughest assignment. The turnover of governors in the province has been fairly quick with three of them -- Lt Gen (r) Iftikhar Hussain Shah, Commander Khalilur Rahman and Lt Gen (r) Ali Mohammad Jan Aurakzai, -- exiting during the last three years. The rise of Taliban militants and failure of every strategy, from one of appeasement through peace treaties to that of punishment by launching military operations, was the single biggest factor for the replacement of governors and, in certain cases, of corps commanders in Peshawar. It is now Owais Ghani's turn to take the test and win a long term by stabilising the tribal areas or lose his job. He did a reasonably good job in Balochistan and survived for four years and five months to become the third longest serving governor there after Lt General Rahimuddin and General Musa Khan. He could try and emulate in NWFP that by succeeding where most of his predecessors have failed. By Shoaib Hashmi It gets my goat every time I look at it, and I have to look at it all the time because it is splashed all over the front pages of all the newspapers. It is the pits because it is an ad by a company which is spending millions to persuade people not to use its product! Look it up in your paper. It is an ad by the gas company, and the gist of it is in the last line which reads, "Never use gas heaters, wear warm clothes instead!" I think while they are at it they should go the whole hog, and so I have some helpful suggestions which they should add to their ads. "Don't waste gas on cooking, use dried branches or the front pages of your newspaper -- or eat raw vegetables they are good for you!" Also "Shut off your geysers, learn to take cold showers, in your warm clothes!" Please don't mistake me, I am rational and sensible, and eco-friendly and aware of the need to conserve scarce resources, and I still think it is a stupid ad! That set me thinking, how did we get by before the discovery of gas in Sui and before it became available? One thing I am sure of, winters in Lahore were much more severe than they are now. In my boyhood, I can remember spending the whole winter freezing my butt off in a great big overcoat. I don't think I have even seen an overcoat for years, but they used to be common then, and for some reason were called 'Chesters.' The Kashmiris had it even better, they wore long woollen cloaks, like warm caftans, and tucked away inside, hanging by a strap round the neck was something called a 'Kangree!' This was a wicker basket, lined with mud in which you carried live embers round all day. They originated in the cold mountains of Kashmir, but some of them did find their way to Lahore, although I don't think I have heard them mentioned in years. For the evenings there was an even better trick. You spread the humungous fat quilt, an actual 'razaae' on a carpeted floor, stuck a little table in the center to raise it and plonked an 'angeethee' again with live embers under the table, and then the household sat along the walls with their legs spread under the quilt. It is also true that somewhere in the mid forties, we had a two-week spell when Lahore froze in sub-zero temperatures at night. Each morning we awoke to a city covered with hoarfrost, until we discovered that this was heaven on earth for two reasons: One, we didn't have to take a bath, and two, any water left uncovered outside overnight, was found frozen in the morning. First we simply left some cups and saucers with a bit of water outside, and woke to our own custom shaped bits of crystal ice; then we found some almonds and 'chilghoza' kernels to float in the water and be found embedded in chunks of ice in the morning. I remember crunching at this almond encrusted ice with the grown-ups yelling at us to get the hell out of sight to do it! Maybe the gas wallahs are right and we should rediscover the delight of crunching ice crystals until our lips went blue and froze, ready to drop!!
Kaiser Bengali has been extremely critical of the economic performance of the eight years of Musharraf regime, in his writings as well as in his television interviews. Currently working for Collective for Social Science Research, a research company based in Karachi, economist Bengali has also served as the managing director Social Policy Development Centre between 2001-2004. Here he talks with TNS about a range of issues and gives his own economic blueprint which is closely tied up with politics. Excerpts of the interview follow: The News on Sunday: How do
you see this relationship between military regimes and economic Kaiser Bengali: There is a myth about development and economic performance of military regimes. In Pakistan, Ayub Khan, Ziaul Haq and Musharraf have all received unprecedented support from IMF and World Bank. In the case of Musharraf, it was the rescheduling and, of course, money that was coming as rental from the United States for using our space. There were four factors which contributed to the high growth during the Zia period, none of which can be located in Zia's economic policy. The oil price shock hit the world in 1973 but it was 1975-77 when the first emigrants from Pakistan began to leave for Saudi Arabia and it was 1978 when the remittance inflow began and it peaked in 1982 onwards. So the price of the oil price shock was borne by the Bhutto regime but the benefits were accrued by the Zia regime. This high rate of remittance inflow gave the govt sufficient fiscal space. Second, there were very large investments made during the Bhutto period that had long gestation periods. The Pakistan Steel Mills construction started in 1974, and it started commercial production in 1982. Similarly there were Heavy Mechanical Complex, Heavy Electrical Complex, Indus Highway, Port Qasim and Ittehad Chemicals (chemical industry's foundation was laid in the 1970s and chemicals are a major input in a large number of consumer industries). So this investment in the 1970s began to bear fruit in the 1980s leading to large chunks of output increases. Third, because of Afghan
war Pakistan received enormous amount of foreign funding, almost And fourth, Zia resorted very heavily on borrowing and deficit financing. When he took over the debt-GDP ratio of the country was 24 per cent and in 1988 when Zia left the scene, it was 48 per cent. So if you get manna from heaven your performance will be good. However, the poor performance of Zia regime became apparent in the 1990s and till later. TNS: What happened in the 1990s? KB: In the 1990s the civilian governments had no fiscal space because all the resources they had were mobilised for repaying the debt which Zia had left them. You will recall in 1984, Mahboobul Haq, Zia's finance minister floated whitener bonds with a ten year maturity period. They matured in 1994. If you look at the budget of 1994, debt service rate went very high -- almost 40 per cent in nominal terms. Zia government had collected money and spent it [on defense], so in 1994 Benazir government had to repay that money. So, if you say 1990 were not an era of good economic performance, it was because there were no resources. I once asked somebody very senior in the Nawaz Sharif government as to why the ninth five year plan was not being prepared. His reply was that whenever the economic team met, all they discussed was when was the next instalment due and where would the money come from. He said there was no point in discussing anything else. TNS: In this backdrop how
do you look at the economic performance of Musharraf in the last eight KB: GDP growth rate is an average of growth in its component sectors. So in the years that GDP growth rate was around 8 per cent, in 2003 for instance, banking sector growth rate was 29 per cent and the automobile sector growth rate was 45 per cent. Now if you have some sectors where growth rate is so high, your average will go up, even if the variance is very high. The banking sector growth rate was high because the government, or the State Bank rather, allowed consumer financing from 2002 onwards. The monetary policy was that you could get a loan for a house, car, fridge, camera, if for nothing else, a vacation or a personal loan. Banks made enormous profits out of consumer credit and profits are a component of GDP. A lot of this credit was going in for buying cars so automobile production went up by 40-45 per cent. So basically it was a one legged growth and that one leg is consumer financing. You remove consumer financing, everything else collapses. You are only managing an economy for your numbers to look good, for headlines. TNS: What is the other leg of the economy? KB: Largely there are two legs of an economy, agriculture and manufacturing. The services sector is the body. If you look at the national accounts, more than 50 per cent of the growth of GDP is coming from services sector. Agriculture is stagnant, and so is manufacturing barring one or two sectors, like automobiles. Today we have an economy with weak legs and a bloated body. It is not sustainable. TNS: What is wrong with consumer financing? KB: What it did was that it increased money supply in the economy. In the first two years, inflation remained low because there was excess manufacturing capacity in the country. So factories which were operating at two shifts began to operate at three shifts and the supply increased. But once that capacity was reached, demand continued to increase because people kept going to restaurants and kept paying out of credit cards. Once supply was constant and demand continued to increase inflation was the result. So today we have runaway inflation, nearly double digit and food inflation which is certainly more than 12 per cent. Another thing that has happened is that a lot of demand has been created for imported products. We're importing one billion dollars worth of mobile phones. We're importing cars, because we only assemble cars here. And with cars come petroleum imports as well. So we have created two problems: inflation that is out of control and a trade imbalance. Our imports have risen sharply while the exports are stagnant. And this is what the coming government is going to inherit. Just as Zia gave a debt mountain to the incoming government, the Musharraf regime is going to give the next government a massive foreign exchange crisis. TNS: What about the outgoing government's privatisation policy? KB: Our services deficit which has always been very small is rising sharply because of our privatisation and foreign investment policy. All the large entities have been privatised to foreign companies. And the investment (FDI) has been in terms of telecommunications, mobile phones and food. All of these companies earn their profits in rupees but remit their profit in dollars. So there is a dollar outflow in terms of profit remittance against which there is no dollar inflow. We've created a liability without creating a countervailing asset. In 1999 total profit remittance outflow, which in monetary language is called reverse remittance, was 97 million dollars a year. Today it is close to a billion dollars and rising. TNS: About PTCL, is there a justification for a profit-making enterprise? KB: There was no real policy or principle involved. This is a neo-liberal govt which believes it is not the business of the government to be in business. What they have done is that they have sold PTCL to a company which is a state enterprise. So de facto their policy was that it is not the business of the Pakistani state to be in business in Pakistan but it can be the business of a foreign state to be in business in Pakistan. TNS: There is a massive power and energy crisis in the country. Where did we go wrong? KB: The last investment that was made in the power sector was in the Ghazi Barotha project, which was an achievement of the political governments of the 1990s. In 1988, the Benazir government saw a power crisis coming and they went ahead with establishing thermal power plants which takes about three years to build. If those power plants plants had not been set up, we would have seen the same situation in 1990s that we have today. There would have been power outages for eight to ten hours. Since 1999, the Musharraf regime has not invested in a single megawatt of power. In 2001, we had surplus power, today we are living with power shortage. When Benazir's government contracted to buy power at 6 cents per hour, there was excessive criticism. Today, for one project they are contracting at 11.5 cents per hour. Today, the world knows that we have a power crisis, it will increase its power knowing that Pakistan has no choice but to buy. So it is mismanagement of the highest order of the economy. All the investment that they talk about is either portfolio investment, which is the stock market, equity markets, or soft investments like telecommunications. These are all investments which do not require these companies to build any brick and mortar and steel structures. So if they have to leave at 24 hours' notice, they don't lose much. What do banks lose, furniture? TNS: But they have paid huge licensing fees. KB: That is peanuts compared to the kind of profits they have made. They have recovered several times their licensing fees. TNS: So are big dams like Kalabagh the only solution to the energy crisis? KB: Dams don't produce water, they only store water and you don't have water. Even now you cannot store water in Tarbela and Mangla to their full capacity. TNS: So we need better water management then? KB: Yes, we don't need more dams. 40 per cent of the water released by dams don't reach plant roots, which means it is wasted. So if you build another dam and assuming that it is filled to capacity, 40 per cent of that water is also going to be wasted. So 40 per cent of the capital cost of Kalabagh or Bhasha Dam will be wasted. This is not a prudent or wise way of making investments. I think we need to make investments in improving water management by reducing this loss to single digit. TNS: What do you think about the social sector spending and will we be able to meet the MDG targets? KB: I think there is universal acceptance now that we are going to miss the targets. We were spending 0.9 per cent of our GDP on health which has come down to 0.7 per cent. TNS: What are the different issues pertaining to the estrangement between various provinces like National Finance Commission etc. KB: There is a pervasive view among the smaller provinces, particularly Sindh, that there is a resource transfer taking place from Sindh to the other provinces, particularly Punjab. An example they give is of the Super Highway, which was a Sindh government entity. But the National Highway took over the Super Highway along with its fairly large toll income. The feeling in Sindh is that the profits of Super Highway are being used to subsidise the losses incurred on the Motorway. This has been cited as an example of resource transfer. TNS: There were demands about revision of formula regarding distribution of federal receipts among the provinces. Comment. KB: Three provinces want a change but Punjab has resisted the formula. Punjab benefits from the present scheme -- distribution on the basis of population. But I think if there was a genuine political government, with no interference from the military, the politicians would have come to an agreement. For instance, if Punjab and Sindh were to get together to discuss water and finances, politicians would have said you concede on water, we do on finances. It is my personal experience that no delegation comes with an inflexible stand that they are not going to compromise on. TNS: So what's the way forward? KB: There is an urgent economic, let alone political, need to do away with the concurrent list from the constitution along with all the ministries. There is a duplication that eats up twice the amount of money. There is a vested interest. When you do away with the federal ministries, all these bureaucrats will lose their federal jobs. Then we need to reduce the defense expenditure by at least a hundred billion rupees. It is possible and it is not going to affect our firepower in any way. Because a significant part of that expenditure does not relate to firepower; it relates to providing perks to the officers. There is no needs for military to maintain and run the farms. TNS: But where is the political will? KB: We have reached a stage where if the political will is not there, the country will implode with the debris falling inside. We are seeing that happening. We have reached a brink. TNS: You're a strong advocate of low GDP growth rates. Comment. KB: For about ten years we need to run an economy where the finance minister and the prime minister have the courage not to get good headlines. We need to invest in infrastructure which has deteriorated to a point that we don't have productive capacity. When you are investing in infrastructure, and by that I also mean cities which are totally chaotic where no foreigner wants to come, and physical and human infrastructure, the results are going to come after a while. So you are not going to get any output and the GDP is going to be low. Ten years later when you have infrastructure in place then you can target double digit growth rates. That growth will be based on real sectors -- on agricultural and manufacturing outputs, not on hot air balloon sectors like mobile phones. By doing so, you will have a massive boost in employment, income generation and poverty reduction. As for inflation it will be controlled by switching expenditures from current heads to development heads -- by abolishing concurrent list ministries and reducing defense expenditure. TNS: In an ideal economic model, what sort of a role do you see for the private and public sectors? KB: Private sector is good in producing those commodities, which are low technology and require small capital investments. We have seen that our private sector is unable to put together large outlays. We have no one in this country of the calibre of Tata or Ambani in India. These are areas where the state will invest. TNS: But then the state tends to overstaff? KB: There is no problem with that. This is where your economic and social values come in. Is the purpose of the state merely to fill the pockets of the profit makers? Or is the state supposed to work for the welfare of the maximum number of people? It's a value judgement. When Shaukat Aziz went out for all out privatisation, he made a value judgement. The welfare of the people of Pakistan didn't matter, what mattered was the corporate profits and he made that decision accordingly. As a state we need to determine what are our values. Are we prepared to have a few people who can enjoy summer holidays in Switzerland and the rest of the people virtually starving? If that is acceptable, then fine. We should follow that policy. TNS: And now to the most immediate issues. How do look at the current food crisis? KB: There was a mala fide intention to begin with. The Shaukat Aziz ministry (Finance) predetermined the growth rate they want to achieve. So when you increase the wheat output you increase the agricultural sector growth rate. When you do that GDP growth rate will go up. There was something else that was suspect here. The estimate for the wheat crop is made after the rains, but this time they made an announcement of a bumper crop before the winter rains and, based on that announcement, allowed a certain party to export wheat to India, apparently half a million tonnes. After that transaction was complete, the rains came and news began to come in that we're going to have a normal crop. A normal crop means that you import two million tonnes of wheat which is a routine. Because they had earlier announced a bumper crop, they took time to admit that they were wrong. So the LC (Letter of Credit) for import of wheat was also delayed. Once wheat had been exported and we had a normal crop, the wheat market knew there was going to be a shortage. Now stockists everywhere in the world will behave like that that when they know there is a shortage and prices can go up, they withhold their stocks. They're not evil people. This is normal behaviour and this is what a market economy will do if there is a shortage. They made another mistake. Instead of placing an order for 2 million tonnes of wheat, they placed an order for 1.5 million tonnes of wheat first. Then they realised this mistake and placed another order for half a million tonnes of wheat. After their first order, the signal had already gone out in the market that shortage will remain. So they continued to withhold stocks. If they knew that wheat was arriving and prices will fall, they would have released stocks and that would have taken care of the shortage. TNS: Prices of other commodities have doubled alongside? KB: There are two components of economic management; fiscal policy and monetary policy. The State Bank is following a restrictive monetary policy while the finance ministry is following a liberal fiscal policy, one is contradicting the other and neither of them is effective. The government is borrowing heavily from the State Bank for its expenditure. That means the money supply increases. On one hand, the State Bank is trying to restrict money supply by increasing interest rates, and on the other the government is raising the money supply. When money supply increases prices will rise. There is another reason for increasing food prices. Our agricultural yield per acre is constant or declining for most crops because we are not investing in our land, in supporting agriculture. The government's ad hocism is causing problems. When the government suddenly imports tomatoes from India, the market is flooded with imported tomatoes and prices crash. As a result the farmer will not grow tomato next year, shifting the crisis to the next year. For eight year Shaukat Aziz has mismanaged the economy like no other finance minister. Because Shaukat Aziz knew he does not have to go back and ask people for votes, he couldn't care less about what he did to the economy. All he had to show for was the stock market performance which is only hot air. --
Farah Zia, Shahzada Irfan Ahmed and Aoun Sahi Photos
by Rahat Dar
By Omar R. Quraishi Conjuring up conspiracy theories seems to have become our national pastime. To be fair to ordinary Pakistanis, perhaps one reason for the preponderance of conspiracy theories is that true and credible information is usually a scarce commodity in Pakistan and nothing illustrates this better than the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto. All kinds of conspiracy theories and speculation ranging from government involvement to complicity of certain PML-Q leaders to even a report accusing commandos of the Special Services Group of involvement have been making the rounds. As for the mode and method of the killing, the theories range from the now-thoroughly discredited 'lever' theory to a lone attacker who first fired several bullets and then exploded himself to one which says that one or more trained snipers were behind the murder. The conspiracy theories don't end beyond the assassination. Take for instance the case of the PPP. Speculation has already appeared in some newspapers -- and we all know where such stories come from -- to the effect that a power struggle may already be underway in the party, that the will does not exist or its content is not what was made public and so on. There is also a conspiracy theory which goes so far as to suggest that since Asif Ali Zardari seems to have benefited in some ways from his wife's death, he may well be in on it. Of course, a conspiracy theory necessarily means no proof. And in the absence of credible and truthful information, i.e. corroborated and independently verifiable, an atmosphere is generated in which such conjecture and hearsay become close to being treated as fact. It may be okay, perhaps even understandable, if one illiterate fool believes in something that has no basis in reality or fact but quite another if millions of people do that. Why do we have so many conspiracy theories and theorists in this country? The obvious reason is lack of information and the government's (and not only this one but all those preceding it as well) pathological attempt to control it and manipulate it for its own ends and objectives. It is the absence of information that leads people to begin conjecturing and coming up with fanciful alternatives. Take the case of Ms Bhutto's assassination. Even, for the sake of argument, if it is accepted that the so-called 'lever theory' has some credence to it, the credibility of the government is so low, and our past is littered with so many government cover-ups, attempted cover-ups, obfuscation and so on that next to nobody will even believe this version. That is partly why when the theory was first propounded by the interior ministry most people scoffed at it and thought that the government had gone off its rocker and/or that this was just the beginning of an elaborate official cover-up. That the interior ministry spokesman made this public a mere day after Ms Bhutto's death and repeatedly said that the recording intercept of two men, one whom he insisted was Baitullah Mehsud, exchanging felicitations over the attack,would make most people think that what was the great hurry in coming to such a conclusion. Perhaps the most -- or among the most -- fanciful of all conspiracy theories doing the (mostly Internet) rounds these days is one that the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) had links to the Lal Masjid brothers (one of whom, Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi, died during the storming of the mosque in July 2007). The obvious implication of such an outlandish assertion is that there was -- yes, believe it or not! -- a foreign hand in Lal Masjid. The argument is that which country would stand to benefit the most from instability and violence in Pakistan? Of course, who else but India -- so no guessing what would be the source of such theories. In the process, while blaming a 'foreign hand' for our own troubles, the reputation of the BLA also gets thoroughly besmirched. The answer to this absurd proposition -- that the BLA had links with the Lal Masjid brothers -- would have to be to ask those making such ludicrous claims what they make of the government's delay of several months in taking action against the Lal Masjid brothers. Who was behind the Lal Masjid brothers and their 'students' practically holding parts of Islamabad hostage? Was the BLA and the Indians behind that as well? Why was there no action when the Lal Masjid students' went around Jinnah Super and other markets of Islamabad forcing video shop owners to close down their business? Was the reason for the inaction then to tell the west, especially America, that look we have a serious problem of extremism and Talibanisation and that it is now so serious that it has arrived in Islamabad, a stone's throw from the Diplomatic Enclave? Oops -- there I go again, indulging in yet another conspiracy theory. *********** The caretaker prime minister, who also quite astonishingly wears the hat of the chairman of the Senate, recently asked those who own cars to limit their use, given the extraordinary energy crisis. It could also be because the oil import bill for the current fiscal year is said to rise by a whopping 40 per cent to almost 11 billion dollars and reports have come in of government delegations being readied to be sent to the 'brotherly' Gulf states, where Islamabad will request (read beg) that it be sold petrol on credit. With oil prices being as high as they are currently, and coupled with our complete dependence on imported oil, perhaps such an option is to be expected but one has to wonder that for a change the government and the caretaker PM should put their money where their mouth is. Cut back the number of official cars allowed to ministers, federal secretaries, generals and other senior state functionaries. Ration the amount of oil they use and stop their families and long lost cousins from using these vehicles -- and then maybe you (as in the government) will have the moral high ground to even think of asking the general public to make such a request. The writer is Op-ed Pages Editor of The News. Email: omarq@cyber.net.pk
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phone keys. Apparently harmless, this simple act of pressing a computer or
mobile key can from now onwards land you into deep trouble. The reason is
simple -- the country finally has a law to counter cybercrime which even
prescribes death punishment for those found guilty of using internet to
spread terrorism.
attention of the president, stay focused and deliver what was expected of
him. The president is known to value loyalty and there is no doubt that Owais
Ghani has been very loyal to his benefactor.
progress?
unlimited.
years?